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db1974
08 Jan 14 12:39
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
... and I haven't a clue what to back!

Lines are
NO @ SEA -8.0
IND @ NE -7.0 (-7.5 available)
SF @ CAR +1.0 (+1.5 & +2.0 available)
SD @ DEN -9.5 (-9.0 & -10.0 available)

As I posted on NFLUK

This is only the 3rd time since 1990 (96 games) that there is a Home Underdog in the Divisional round (I don't have records prior to that so it is probably more)

The previous 2 times, the Home Dogs won the game outright:

05-Jan-1997: Panthers beat the Cowboys 26-17 as 3.5pt Dogs
14-Jan-2012: 49ers beat the Saints 36-32 as 3.5pt Dogs

Ironic that the 2 teams that won are matched up this weekend

As regards the other 3 matches, again going back to 1990, in Divisional games where the Home Fav is giving up more than a TD, then the Fav is 24-17 ATS

However the results are skewed a bit if you take recent results vs historic results

2004-2013: Home Fav is 6-11
1998-2003: Home Fav is 10-0
1990-1998: Home Fav is 8-6

so there is definitely a shift towards the Road Dog covering the spread since 2004 following years of dominance by the Home Fav. I think this makes sense as home advantage means less and less in the NFL while garbage-time TDs and prevent defence mean that teams often score a TD late on to beat the spread

eg - if you take the Seahawks -8.0 against the Saints then you will probably need them to be 16 points up at some stage in the 4th quarter in order to cover that spread

I just can't pull the trigger on anything this weekend just yet.

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By:
Swardean
When: 08 Jan 14 15:23
Indeed db, fabulous weekend awaits.   As I have a financial interest in the SB market, on some I am not tempted to necessarily bet on all the games.

The ones I fancy though are Patriots -7 and SD +10

GL everyone for the weekend
By:
ClayDavis
When: 08 Jan 14 16:50
Why u against the Colts Swardean? I thought u would have been all over a team that has beaten the 49ers, bronocs, Seahawks and Kansas twice like a cheap suit
By:
HARRY22
When: 08 Jan 14 21:22
That superbowl winner stat is spooky....chargers are the superbowl winners if this is to continue.
By:
Swardean
When: 09 Jan 14 08:12
A matter of opinions Clay but I dont think the Colts have been the same team since they lost Reggie Wayne, they have been over-reliant on HY Hilton and I think the best coach in the league (Belichick) will find a way to neutralise him.   

I think the Colts were fortunate last week and if Reid had played it differently in the 2nd half they would of won.  (Too many passing plays when all they needed was to run down the clock).

In addition:-

* Patriots are at Home
* Colts are outside of their Dome
* Cold
* Brady

My final view is that despite the concerns about the patriots team this year they have not been beaten by more than 6 points all season and in those losses they were up against a hard. brutal defensive line, they will not get this against the colts.

Should be a great game.  GL
By:
ClayDavis
When: 09 Jan 14 08:42
Swardean - Eh it's been fairly cold in Indy the past week. -20 at one point. think these guys will be ok in the cold. The Colts have worked out their mid season wobble. They have found a way. Of course they should have lost against Kansas. I was heavy on Kansas. But they won. They found a way. If that was the Pats, people would have been ranting and raving about how they dug out a victory when it was undeserved.
But u can't say the Colts are not as good without Reggie Wayne and then make absolutely no mention of The Gronk.
The Pats have been teetering on the brink all season long. If I was a colts fan I would think that the Kansas D is better than the Pats D....we are gonna to score some points all right. And the Indy secondary got exposed by the Chiefs deep ball threat. Who is the deep ball threat for the Pats? They don;t really have one
By:
Swardean
When: 09 Jan 14 13:28
Yes its been cold outside last couple of weeks in Indy but that is no preparation for playing a full game in those conditions.  Brady's record in minus temperature is considered one of the best ever, Luck has it to prove.   I think the only really cold game they had this year was in Cinci and they got beat.   I seem to recall when they played in Kansas it was quite mild... I may be mistaken but anyway Brady has the outdoor experience of over 40+ games in minus conditions.
I think the Gronk/Wayne comparison is fair as they were both out the same number of games and the number of games they lost without these key players is similar (NE-2, INDY -3).
For me, NE have never been reliant on deep balls.  Brady is short pass, short pass, short pass.

It will be fun watching on Sunday morning.

On another topic it is looking like 100% chance of rain throughout the Seattle/Saints match.  How does that affect things?
By:
northanlite
When: 09 Jan 14 15:35
well for a start it rains a lot in seattle while the saints play indoors.
you would think that would make it advantage seahawks. the saints rely on DB's passing game more than seattle rely on RW's
By:
therhino
When: 11 Jan 14 10:52
I think the Colts are a red hot chance against New England. You can talk about the dome, the cold, Brady, Belichick and anything else. After last week, the Colts believe. Like the Ravens last year, never a crack against Denver and found a way, and were underdogs all the way to the trophy. I expect the Patriots to start better, then the Colts to come charging home. A bumper trading game on the way is Massachusetts, can't wait.
By:
themightymac
When: 11 Jan 14 14:07
Good post and fabulous stats db1974
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 16:40
...... keep the one thread for weekend?........

Anyone for first game  Saints @ Seahawks, my tuppence worth..

..."The Saints' running game is actually very good and they have excellent options open to them - source: ClayDavis 11/Jan/2104 15:04Happy"...  it's not in fact, and this is the big problem. They'll eventually be forced through the air, in the projected wet and windy weather, and against those defensive backs of Seattle - not a good mix.

I don't take the team statistics at face value, although Saints running game is a lowly ranked 25th, I'd put it about average....not bad, but certainly not one that is feared. That means it can be good on its day (if facing an average defense), but today will not be the day.

My issue with them all season is that they live by the deep ball, and from the early weeks I've said to myself (and on here) sooner or later (presumably play-offs, and tonight is the night) this will get shut-down and its bye bye back to bayou.....

1.28 seems a bit skinny but fair-ish. Hope Saints drive first and get a couple of first downs, then I'll get a bit on the Seahawks at a few ticks higher - 30 seconds before GRANTCKING calls gsm SaintsGrinGrin
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 16:40
*Anyway*
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 16:46
... should have added, personally I want Seahawks to win.....for the reason that I dislike the Saints under Payton.....but I'd let that slide in preference to a another close matchHappy with plenty of lead changes.
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 11 Jan 14 17:10
I see a few interceptions in these slippery blowy conditions.
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:07
I really dislike Goodell........expanding play-offsCry.... London franchise...CryCryCry

when is he gone!
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:23
ShermanLaughLaugh - what a mouth!

SKY commentators are right, he backs it up --- really looking forward to this. Saints have to take him on, and to their credit I believe they are ballsy enough to do it.
By:
Buell Mule
When: 11 Jan 14 20:28
I'm on the Saints. Moneyline & +8.5... Looking forward to this!
By:
SlippyBlue
When: 11 Jan 14 20:32
I'm looking forward to this game as well, in a nervous way !
By:
therhino
When: 11 Jan 14 20:33
Playoff intensity and horrid weather. Scoring could be tricky, at least until they find their feet. Gone for Under 44 points for a start hoping for a low scoring first quarter.
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:35
Wallflower 11 Jan 14 21:32 
Welcome back, Buell....... trust its for small 0r small/medium (% of your bank) stakes?  NFL  too erratic to be otherwise - if none of my business, feel free to tell me so!

From other thread Buell,

backing-up grayhawk..... good luck all.....thinking of Hill St Blues (those old enough to remember).....Lets be careful out there!!!



Last week you were were here and new..... I'm over 20 years into NFL and over 10 here......absolutely fine to take an opening position (I'm on Seahawks outright, as Texas says price is fair enough).....but not to take a "heavy" stance.

grayhawk 11 Jan 14 21:33 
No bet on this game.....cheering Seattle on for Superbowl position....hoping for good game to watch.

Good luck everyone.
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By:
therhino
When: 11 Jan 14 20:36
Let's get it on ExcitedExcited
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:36
Love the atmosphere.....best in league surely
By:
grayhawk
When: 11 Jan 14 20:37
Which thread we posting on here Confused Grin
By:
SlippyBlue
When: 11 Jan 14 20:38
What's the best link gents?
By:
therhino
When: 11 Jan 14 20:38
3 and out to start
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:38
Stay here?........less biased titlesGrinGrin
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:39
saw message Buell.   perfectHappy
By:
northanlite
When: 11 Jan 14 20:39
a stinking start for the saints. not used to being outdoors Laugh
By:
the swede
When: 11 Jan 14 20:41
but great stop there from their D
but the zebras always love the seahamwks
By:
Buell Mule
When: 11 Jan 14 20:41
Ouch!!!
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:41
... I'm on Seahawks..... thought that was harsh....saw replay, maybe notShocked
By:
SlippyBlue
When: 11 Jan 14 20:41
Link chaps please.
By:
HowieTheRookie.
When: 11 Jan 14 20:42
that was dumb on third downSad
By:
northanlite
When: 11 Jan 14 20:42
looking to take him out the game, obviously they thought the flag was worth it
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:43
... sorry SlippyBlue, don't have one....when get chance check thread for Kansas - Indy last week good info on them early in thread, should still apply
By:
northanlite
When: 11 Jan 14 20:44
looks like a few nerves are jangling out there
By:
the swede
When: 11 Jan 14 20:44
sorry for my anti seahawks feeling,
stil upset that packers wasnt allowed to win in the arena last season on the corrupt last play
By:
vrk
When: 11 Jan 14 20:45
Not bad for the saints after a dropped 3rd down pass and a terrible punt
By:
johnwark
When: 11 Jan 14 20:45
if you're on unders you'll be pleased so far
By:
Wallflower
When: 11 Jan 14 20:50
Slippy, on Kansas @ Indy thread  .....  BEANISH early on, some downloading but seems very confident of it
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