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ClayDavis
03 Dec 13 11:28
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
Carolina +4 - man oh man I'm having some of that
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Report Wallflower December 3, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
Sad - oh dear, I'd give it a few days Clay.....don't over-react. I was discussing with DirkDiggler last night....about how if a team has a loss, particularly a bad one - the process is immediately reflected in next week's line as if anticipating the bad performance is the beginning of an downward trend. In fact, what happens more often is a positive reaction to that loss....I was saying last night I don't understand why people are then confused by this...it's natural to want to make amends, so to speak.

Saints really need to re-group this week after getting hammered last night. This process of licking their wounds, solidarity to rebound from the massacre, back at home will help them. If Carolina are in to +4 as a result of last night, its a mistake. I'm not saying +4 is right/wrong (typically don't do spreads)....but narrowing of the spread just because of last night is flawed.
Report DirkDiggler December 3, 2013 2:20 PM GMT
Yeah, have a good think through Clay, don't overreact. Last night was a terrible spot for NO. No-one wins in Seattle. Back at home is a great spot for the Saints. I would expect a totally different performance. The Saints did not play badly last night, they were just mullered by a better, deeper team. People have been talking about the Saints defense all season, I have no idea what they're seeing, it's not 'good' it's just much better than a historically bad defense, perhaps the worst of all-time. Seattle's defense is the best in the NFL and can dominate.
Report DirkDiggler December 3, 2013 2:23 PM GMT
Clay you're now 2-4 on the Seahawks Losing about £60 on the season (Clay Davis thread), time for a rethink.
Report mad paddy December 3, 2013 6:15 PM GMT
If both teams finish with an identical record at the end of the regular season, will the division winners be decided by games between the two of them??
Report Wallflower December 3, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
Yes.....

  1.  Head-to-head
  2.  Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
  3.  Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
  4.  Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

then some others (in this order) if still tied...

    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in common games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss
Report mad paddy December 3, 2013 8:12 PM GMT
Thxs
Report Lance in France December 3, 2013 9:18 PM GMT
One thing that went against the Saints was plane trouble on the way home. They couldn't leave Seattle on Monday night, struggled to find a hotel and hoped to return today. That means they will miss a full days preparation on what is a short week for them anyway.
Report Swardean December 4, 2013 10:27 AM GMT
I think the Panthers will not only cover but win SU.   On the live thread on the Saints/Seahawks game I posted,

"I worry for the saints next week, of all teams the panthers match up similar to Seattle.   Going in to the game, the Panthers will be so up based on last 8 wins and the Saints will be fretting they may blow their division lead that looked so safe."

The Carolina/Seattle similarities were echoed one the CBS website on Tuesday morning in some detail and will the shorten week and travel problems above, I like the Panthers.   Plus have a soft spot for them having backed them at huge prices!
Report HowieTheRookie. December 4, 2013 9:53 PM GMT
Managed to get +4.5 early doors. 
The Dome is very intimidating when things are going well for the Saints, however with the Panthers breathing down their neck and the number one seed now looking unlikely I think there will be a very nervous tense atmosphere, especially if the first couple of drives don't yield any points.

Hate betting against my team but the Point Spread is too tempting especially coming off a real drubbing in Seattle (their flight was delayed by a day too which won't have helped matters).
Report louie87 December 4, 2013 9:57 PM GMT
For what it's worth Tampa bay are the only side to win the week after playing the Seahawks this season.  Not sure how much to read into that stat...
Report sideshowbob December 5, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
clay, master of the overreation bet
Report sideshowbob December 5, 2013 5:14 PM GMT
carolina have ridden their luck quite a bit. against the 49ers they should have been buried in the first half. the 49ers just couldnt finish off drives with a td. a lucky flag-non-flag win against the patriots. they could easily have lost at miami who arent much to write home about. and even against tampa early on they were struggling until a crazy turnover changed the game.

theyve also benefitted from a fairly soft schedule. 9 wins, only 2 of those against teams currently over 500. the saints have won 6 of 6 at home, they arent remotely the same team on the road, never mind in seattle where everybody loses.
Report DirkDiggler December 5, 2013 7:19 PM GMT
Good reasons to like both teams here. Saints have been delayed by a day apparently, dunno if peeps have heard about that. What did we see on MNF? To me that wasn't NO laying an egg, they were simply blown away by a much better team who are unbeatable in their own house.

I think this game is far trickier than MNF, you just don't go against Seattle @ home. That way lies madness.
Report Swardean December 5, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
We must have watched different games sideshowbob, panthers deserved the win against 49ers
Report Swardean December 5, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
We must have watched different games sideshowbob, panthers deserved the win against 49ers
Report db1974 December 5, 2013 9:18 PM GMT
Panthers deserved to beat the Seahawks in Week 1 too
Report sideshowbob December 5, 2013 10:43 PM GMT
i didnt say they didnt deserve to win, im saying that a better quarterback performance and the 49ers would have won. at one point carolina had only gained 25 yards, but the 49ers kept having to settle for field goals. they led 9-0, just one of those field goals turned into a touchdown and carolina were probably dead. 2nd half the panthers stopped the 49ers stone cold, but first half the 49ers beat themselves. kaepernick had a nightmare game, dont think he even reached 100 yards. they cant expect the saints and brees at home to be as generous.
Report ClayDavis December 9, 2013 1:15 AM GMT
nearly show time
Report ClayDavis December 9, 2013 1:27 AM GMT
Chris Collingsworth is confident about the Panthers tonight Cool
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 1:30 AM GMT
I can't see the Saints losing tonight. In the dome in a massive divisional matchup with something to prove after last week - I just can't see it. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see them blow the Panthers away.
Report Beaniash December 9, 2013 1:31 AM GMT
I LIKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME .. WAY TOO LOW. WILL BE A 31-38 TYPE GAME
Report sideshowbob December 9, 2013 2:03 AM GMT
did that panthers bloke just say he went to hogwarts or am i hearing things??
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:05 AM GMT
6 up Excited
Report sideshowbob December 9, 2013 2:06 AM GMT
7-6 down in a minute
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:07 AM GMT
still get 11/8 with pad /p straight betting so 6 point start  looks a fair bet ?
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:07 AM GMT
yes now 6/4 anyone got a live stream
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:10 AM GMT
were is started when u need him ?
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:11 AM GMT
went with the home form 4/7 looked a fair bet
Report startedOct2000stillgoingstrong December 9, 2013 2:12 AM GMT
wot you doin up at this time of night bigmart?
Report startedOct2000stillgoingstrong December 9, 2013 2:13 AM GMT
I took 1.7 after PAnthers had scored. Small bet to for interest sake.
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:16 AM GMT
my bloody daughter  called woke me up looking for taxi arr !  kinda thought u wd be up m8 so who is looking the better side here ?
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 2:17 AM GMT
sideshowbob     09 Dec 13 02:03 
did that panthers bloke just say he went to hogwarts or am i hearing things??


Yeah it was Greg Hardy
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 2:19 AM GMT
I checked Wikipedia and he didn't actually go to Hogwarts!

Wink
Report judorick December 9, 2013 2:19 AM GMT
stream

http://www.viplivesports.eu/american-football/193993/1/carolina-panthers-vs-new-orleans-saints-live-stream-online.html
Report Wallflower December 9, 2013 2:34 AM GMT
..... all round, pleasing
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:36 AM GMT
cheers judorick Wink
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:37 AM GMT
http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-orleans-saints             pre match
Report judorick December 9, 2013 2:39 AM GMT
booom

need NO for an all correct 5 fold, already got the 4 folds
Report wisewords December 9, 2013 2:48 AM GMT
TD!
Report Wallflower December 9, 2013 2:50 AM GMT
..... and Saints get ball at start of second half alsoHappy.... think I'll wait for a very possible early 1.08......before the usual lay..Happy
Report judorick December 9, 2013 2:51 AM GMT
me too, waiting on that too
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 2:52 AM GMT
Saints looked very impressive in that 2nd quarter
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 2:56 AM GMT
whats your thoughts on the dallas cowboys against the chicago bears that message is for started and judrick ?
Report wisewords December 9, 2013 3:01 AM GMT
Panthers look done to me Wall.. but I guess anything can happen..
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 3:02 AM GMT
anyone for tennis CYC Spackman 5/4  looks good in running Wink
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 3:04 AM GMT
now 8/11
Report ClayDavis December 9, 2013 3:04 AM GMT
Cam has to pull his finger out CryCry
Report Wallflower December 9, 2013 3:04 AM GMT
....yep, but they are a good team, and you're right anything can (and most importantly does) happen, Panthers get a strike and then turnover and everything changes.
Report judorick December 9, 2013 3:07 AM GMT
fancy the Cowboys to score plenty against a banged up defence
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 3:08 AM GMT
WTF was Payton doing there declining that penalty
Report judorick December 9, 2013 3:09 AM GMT
insane decision db!
Report ClayDavis December 9, 2013 3:10 AM GMT
judorick - does Romo win games in December? Shocked
Report judorick December 9, 2013 3:15 AM GMT
I didn't say they would win, just rack up points

but they could still lose
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 3:16 AM GMT
cheers judoWinkrick
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 3:20 AM GMT
cyc spackman now short easy lay off hope some off u followed easy money Wink
Report Wallflower December 9, 2013 3:23 AM GMT
dropped Colsten from my fantasy teamCryCry
Report judorick December 9, 2013 3:24 AM GMT
TD or first down and goal?
Report db1974 December 9, 2013 3:25 AM GMT
he's down
Report Wallflower December 9, 2013 3:36 AM GMT
...... well and truly on the Panthers nowHappyHappy.....you never know. Excellent easy game, after tough battles for me earlier
Report judorick December 9, 2013 3:39 AM GMT
yeah I want the comeback win now, win 50% more on them now
Report bigmart December 9, 2013 4:05 AM GMT
gonna put half my winning back on CYC Spackman 9/4 with p pow worth a bet Wink
Report wisewords December 9, 2013 4:08 AM GMT
is this Spackman still going bigmart?
Report Colldogg December 9, 2013 4:27 AM GMT
First and goal from 17 yard line and I'm on the Saints to win by 21-30points at 10/1... Yeah of course he's going to make the touchdown. Sick.
Report casemoney December 9, 2013 10:40 PM GMT
was on over 12 at 5.3 thought that was big enough tbh
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