Forums

North American

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
ClayDavis
18 Nov 13 18:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
It's not often you get the chance to bet Brady and the Patriots with a field goal of a start. Tonight we get that chance against the bang on form Carolina Panthers.
Tom Brady, like Drew Brees, seems to thrive on playing on MNF. The Pats have won 10 or their last 11 games on MNF. Brady is 13-4 when playing on MNF.
Also the main reason why I'm very keen on the Pats tonight is that this will be the first time all season long that Brady will all have his weapons available to him, 10 games in. Shane Vereen returns tonight and that gives the Pats real options, especially as Ridley had such a good game last week. If the Pats' running game takes another step forward this week then Carolina are in for a long night. Brady will have so many options. The Gronk and Amendola are starting to fire now. If Vereen plays he is such a threat coming out of the backfield.
I'm a huge fan of the Panthers and they are on fire. They stepped up big time, winning away to the 49ers last weekend. But the 49ers again showed last night that they are struggling. New orleans cut swathes through the Niners D that Carolina struggled to in the 10-9 win. The Panthers have a very strong running game and a great 1-2 punch. But I believe that Pats will put Talib on Stevie Johnson and load the box to stop the running and force Cam Newton to come up with others ways to beat them. Talib is very good on one-one coverage.
The Panthers D is excellent. But this is their biggest test of the season so far. The Falcons and the Giants have been a farce so far this year so Tom Brady (please no one say Russel Wilson) will be far the best QB they will have faced this season. Last week their D stuffed the box and shut down the Niners running game and forced Kaepernick to beat them - he had no deep threat. But Brady does. Brady has deep threats, routes, slants, screens and pick play threats. No huddle, fast pace offense.
If the Pats continue their balanced offense they are going to be very hard to stop tonight. Yes they have a lot of issues on defense but do you trust Cam Newton to deliver when it really matters?
I truly believe the Panthers will have to score at least 24 points in order to prevail. Brady will want to turn this into a shootout tonight and I can assure you there will be only one winner if that is the case.
Brady and the Pats with a field goal of a start is normally a gift from the gods. Tonight is no different.
MASSIVE BET ON THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3 at 10-11

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 143
By:
hologon
When: 18 Nov 13 20:40
that is a super confident write up be lucky
By:
Rico88
When: 18 Nov 13 21:32
I believe you mean Steve Smith instead of Stevie Johnson.
By:
Srichaphan or Ancic?
When: 18 Nov 13 21:43
Better bet on overs.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 18 Nov 13 21:59
Rico - yes, Stevie Smith
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 18 Nov 13 22:35
Panthers moneyline for me.  Coming off a bye week and getting 3 points with Brady on mnf - everything points to huge value on them.  Books are literally begging punters for action on the patriots this week with that start/the moneyline odds.  Reverse line movement as well with the panthers having gone from -1 to -3 despite 70% odd of public money on the patriots.  I initially thought the patriots as well tbh but previous seasons/lines like this have always taught me to side with the bookmakers.
By:
The Mascara
When: 19 Nov 13 00:02
Patriots win no handicap needed, gl
By:
Still standing
When: 19 Nov 13 00:22
>> Reverse line movement as well with the panthers having gone from -1 to -3 despite 70% odd of public money on the patriots.

Could you provide a link for this stat Only.  I'd like to check into it, because it doesn't seem plausible to me that the non public money can move the line that much.  70% of public money on the Pats means that the betting is unbalanced by 40%, yet the line still goes the other way.  That means the unpublic money ( whatever that is ) must be at least 5x the the amount the public bet on Carolina. (Not sure about the 5x, I'm just assuming )
By:
Kriskin
When: 19 Nov 13 00:32
I'm BIG on the Panthers at 1.7 on the match odds.  With the Pats missing players it points to a home victory to me.
By:
Beaniash
When: 19 Nov 13 00:35
PATS ARE 7-2 MATE THEYVE PLAYED ALL SEASON WITH "PLAYERS MISSING" AGAINST BETTER TEAMS THAN PANTHERS
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 00:38
@still standing, I use vegasinsider.com to view line movement with various bookmakers etc.  Also shows percentage on spread/moneyline.  Pretty sure there are other sites as well which provide breakdown of where the public money is at.  Regardless, patriots getting 3 points coming off of a bye week looks too good to be true - casual punters no doubt pile into that.  Vegas seems to want money on the pats hence the reverse line movement.  Don't get me wrong, the public does win sometimes but I'd rather be with the bookie myself.
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 00:44
newton lucky not to be picked there.  Nice start for pats D.
By:
Beaniash
When: 19 Nov 13 00:52
CAM LOOKS NERVOUS
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 00:54
Cam looks alright to me
By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 00:55
great timing talking up talib's return
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 00:57
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHTExcited
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 00:58
dumb from talib that.  Hopefully panthers can capitalise and score here.
By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 01:00
those penalties benefit the offense?
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 01:03
Yeah still 2nd down and a bit more space to operate in front of the endzone
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 01:03
nice, touchdown!  great drive
By:
curious-cat
When: 19 Nov 13 01:04
added attraction of TALIB v SMITH as well as the game

PANTHERS AND SMITH to win both
By:
milla445
When: 19 Nov 13 01:04
Has Steve Smith shagged Talib's wife or something? The boy is off his head.
By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 01:05

Nov 18, 2013 -- 8:03PM, Mr Mischief wrote:


Yeah still 2nd down and a bit more space to operate in front of the endzone


and they score on 3rd down. some of these rules are a nonsense

By:
curious-cat
When: 19 Nov 13 01:06
No ... but he's told him he has Laugh
By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 01:13
carolina players are too riled up, if that's possible in nfl
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 01:15

Nov 18, 2013 -- 8:05PM, lendmeurwheelbarrow wrote:


Nov 19, 2013 --  2:03AM, Mr Mischief wrote:Yeah still 2nd down and a bit more space to operate in front of the endzoneand they score on 3rd down. some of these rules are a nonsense


It's peculiar alright. Belichec had the option to decline the penalty don't forget. He must have thought the 5 yards was worth the extra down. Give me the extra down in that situation any day thank you very much

By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 01:17
exactly, it's very strange. but who are we to argue with one of the greatsLaugh
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 01:19
some stupid pens given away by both teams so far.  Pats one led to a TD, looks like this panthers one could aswell.
By:
lendmeurwheelbarrow
When: 19 Nov 13 01:20
and another one
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 01:21
Idiotic penalties from the Panthers, both on 3rd down too. TD inevitable here now
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 01:22
get in! great d panthers!
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 19 Nov 13 01:22
or not...
By:
Beaniash
When: 19 Nov 13 01:24
HEARTBREAKER
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Nov 13 01:32
Brady showing this D too much respect. No passes to Gronk yet? WTF
By:
Still standing
When: 19 Nov 13 01:52
I seem to recall Gronk  catching one.  I think it was 10+ yds for a 1st down
By:
milla445
When: 19 Nov 13 02:18
Some effort by the Gronk to break the plane Shocked
By:
Beaniash
When: 19 Nov 13 02:20
DEF CAUGHT ONE THERE LOL
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Nov 13 02:21
Brady and the Pats are far better when they don't worry about the D - treated it with contempt there
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 19 Nov 13 02:26
that was absolutely brilliant from newton.  How has he got a first down there?!
By:
milla445
When: 19 Nov 13 02:27
That was absolutely superb
Page 1 of 4  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com