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dlarssonf
14 Oct 13 16:58
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Date Joined: 05 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 26,376 | Blogger: dlarssonf's blog
Really looking forward to this game, should be a good one I hope.... fancy the Colts to get the winGrin
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Report ClayDavis October 14, 2013 6:41 PM BST
Bet of the weekend for me
Report Still standing October 14, 2013 7:26 PM BST
IMO it's not the slam dunk it looks like, especially to Clay.  San D can be a very good team, who knows if this is one of the weeks.  Can't stand Rivers, but he can be toilet bowl one week, super bowl caliber the next.  Indy beat a good Seattle team last week at home, but that was the second road game in a row for Seattle, the week before they just won over what now looks like a bad Houston team  Seattle , IMO, not as good as they're hyped up to be, especially on the road, so I'm not putting much weight on Indy's "big" win last week.

Yes, Indy did smack SF, but that' looks like it wasn't the greatness it looked like it should be.  Indy won 4: , Oakland, Jax, SF, Seattle.  Lost to Miami.  4-1 looks impressive, but their schedule is soft. PLus, a big plaus, do you think they're looking forward to something next week ?

San Diego looks like crap, but throw out last week at Oakland, always a tough divisional game.

But, the absolute , positive, flashing light sign that this game is no walkover for Indy is take a look at the line.

A hot media darling 4 - 1 team going against what most people think are a bunch of 2 and 3 stooges, and the stooges are only +2.

The line maker knows more than you ( maybe not you, but for sure he knows more then me )  Why only +2 ?  It looks like it should be way more, yet, it's not.  Respect the very low pointspread.

Like always, what do I know ?  Indy may blow them out.  A fumble here, an INT there, and it's all over.  I'm just saying, tread lightly. Just one guy's opinion.
Report d13phe October 14, 2013 7:51 PM BST
beating 49ers and Seattle soft?

2 of the best teams in NFL Plain

the Miami game was a fluke by Miami.  they were dominated throughout that game and their luck has run out now.
Report Still standing October 14, 2013 8:01 PM BST
Seattle , IMO, only 75% as good as they're hyped up to be.  Don't know what happened to SF when they played Indy, they were coming off a spanking from Seattle.  Playing 3 of the lesser teams in the first 5 weeks, one good team ( SF) and one hyped up darling who still can't get it together consistently on the road is a soft schedule.

Miami fluke win over Indy ?  Miami held tough in the 4th, Tannenhill was just as good as Luck.  Miami beat them clearly.  No domination by anyone.
Report d13phe October 14, 2013 8:09 PM BST
you may need to check the stats on that one:

Colts had more 1st downs, had more yards, same turnovers and more time with the ball

Luck just made a couple of bad throws but hasn't since

you could argue that the Chargers have had a soft schedule -  they haven;t played a team with a winning record yet and are 2-3

just opinions though Grin
Report Beaniash October 14, 2013 8:16 PM BST
SHOULD BE A DECENT GAME
Report Still standing October 14, 2013 8:17 PM BST
You're right on everything there D13.  Those are offensive stats.  Why is that domination, because obviously they were stopped from winning big by either poor finishing by Indy, or good defending by Miami.  What good is domination if you can't finish ? 

All my writing on this game is indeed just opinion.  The truth, to me, is always the point spread.  I try to figure out why it is what it is.  Indy -2.  Why so low ?

Anyway, good luck with your bet tonight if you have one. I usually only bet in play, so we might both win.
Report Still standing October 14, 2013 8:28 PM BST
Just went to check the stats on that Indy Miami game. I watched the game in it's entirety so I thought I knew what I was talking about, and didn't feel a need to look it up.

1st downs.  Miami 21, Indy 23
Total yards  Miami 398  Indy 448
Time of possession  Miami 29:26  Indy  30:34

Hardly domination.  The only glaring INDY stat I could see is punting average.  Miami 42 yds, Indy 52

sacks were 5-2 Indy, but Indy lost because they were only 2 for 4 in the red zone, Miami was 3 for 3

Fins won that game fair and square.
Report SteadyPaceDontChase October 14, 2013 9:45 PM BST
Strongly suggest backing a shoot out in this game gotta be over 50 points and Indy winning late. Cool
Report Swagger October 14, 2013 9:54 PM BST
Still Standing talks a lot of sense in my opinion. A no bet game for me as you just don't know which San Diego will turn up. It is interesting that the Chargers are only +2 as on the face of it I would have expected something more like a +5 or +6 spread given recent performances but the line maker has been doing it a lot longer than me...
Report Swardean October 14, 2013 10:13 PM BST
Impossible game for me, on the one hand I dont think the Colts are as good as their record, on the other I can never back with the chargers with any confidence.

If I was forced to have a bet I guess it would chargers M/L.

A good weekend for me with all my SB teams winning (seattle, caroline, new england).  GL anyone playing.
Report Swardean October 14, 2013 10:17 PM BST
Impossible game for me, on the one hand I dont think the Colts are as good as their record, on the other I can never back with the chargers with any confidence.

If I was forced to have a bet I guess it would chargers M/L.

A good weekend for me with all my SB teams winning (seattle, caroline, new england).  GL anyone playing.
Report ClayDavis October 14, 2013 11:14 PM BST
I genuinely believe, assuming most stay healthy, that the Colts will contest the AFC Championship game.
With Houston is meltdown this is a big game for the Colts - oould really pull away from them
Report DirkDiggler October 15, 2013 12:39 AM BST
I'm all over Indy tonight, have been for a while. You cannot knock their showing so far this season. IMO they have been 2nd only to Denver this season.
Report GoBallistic October 15, 2013 1:30 AM BST
SD will be a lay when they lead by about 17 Happy
Report alfee October 15, 2013 1:33 AM BST
i like the colts here 10/11 yes plz .
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 1:41 AM BST
I like San Diego, but worth waiting to see.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 1:42 AM BST
10 year home record, SD 67%
10 year road record, Ind 63%

This is going to be a tight match.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 1:42 AM BST
and yes I know Manning isnt there now, but theyre still tough to beat.
Report Wallflower October 15, 2013 1:53 AM BST
How did Norv Tuner last 6 years in San DiegoCry!!
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:04 AM BST
san diego offense is awful
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:07 AM BST
and this match stinks of unders
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:12 AM BST
this match is defence city so far
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 2:16 AM BST
NO SAINTS     CAR PANTHERS     0-3    17-13    24-27    38-44

Who remembers that game?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 2:17 AM BST
3 pts 1st quarter. 82 ft
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:17 AM BST
I don't recall it Rob.
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:25 AM BST
TD!!
Report alfee October 15, 2013 2:27 AM BST
points will flood the game now .
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 2:35 AM BST
going nicely for me
Report judorick October 15, 2013 2:46 AM BST
that's 3 times on 3rd down the colts give a penalty

gotta hurt ya
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 2:48 AM BST
such an unders game
Report HGsuperhoopza October 15, 2013 2:50 AM BST
Chargers playing Jets football and its effective.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 2:57 AM BST
The probability of them winning is exactly the same at 10-3 HT as it is 14-3, but the market doesn't agree.
Report HGsuperhoopza October 15, 2013 2:58 AM BST
Because Indi have time to put points up.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 2:58 AM BST
if they don't, then the stats say Home Win 52, Road Win 7.
Report Still standing October 15, 2013 3:00 AM BST

Oct 14, 2013 -- 7:30PM, GoBallistic wrote:


SD will be a lay when they lead by about 17


Lest we forget. TWICE.

Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 3:00 AM BST
10-6 will be a different matter.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 3:02 AM BST
that would be Home Win 20 Road Win 10
Report HGsuperhoopza October 15, 2013 3:04 AM BST
Gives my Indi and overs call a slight chance, could have done with that mug not dropping it on the 25 though.
Report judorick October 15, 2013 3:06 AM BST
Colts can't play that badly second half, penalties on 3rd down 3 times and dropped 2 key passes both of which could have been TD

4 points down and played crap, different game 2nd half
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 3:07 AM BST
just four of 30 10-6s have been overs.
Report judorick October 15, 2013 3:10 AM BST
yeah, still think it will be low scoring but the Colts will play much better 2nd half, 23-17 Colts final maybe
Report Knight Rider October 15, 2013 3:12 AM BST

The probability of them winning is exactly the same at 10-3 HT as it is 14-3, but the market doesn't agree.


What do you mean?

Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 3:13 AM BST
stats from ten years
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? October 15, 2013 3:13 AM BST
if SD score more than 3 pts next quarter, I think they'll win.
Report Still standing October 15, 2013 3:19 AM BST
If I were a bettin' man, I'd be putting something on Indy.  In the second half, they'll stop the SD run, which will force Phil "I.N.T." Rivers to throw more. Indy will also figure out how to not drop the ball in the second half.  The only worrisome thing is their lack of success in the red zone, but, SD not showing anything offensively except a good up the middle running game, and fairly strong defence which INDY will easily overcome.   I already greened out and am happy with my piddly profit or I'd be making a move. Could be wrong of course.
Report Knight Rider October 15, 2013 3:19 AM BST
Of exactly those scores?  Or 7pts versus 11pts?  You can't possibly think it's the same probability surely?
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 3:26 AM BST
Key possession for colts here. Have stuck around like last wk. But still think bolts will hang on for the win.
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 3:39 AM BST
AGAIN, WHAT AN UNDERS FEST
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 3:41 AM BST
I don't think there has been a single turnover yet. That won't help covers backers.
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 3:48 AM BST
*overs
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 3:55 AM BST
colts in overtime, 16-16?
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 3:58 AM BST
16-7 chargers. 9.45 left in 4th. Red zone of fence has been poor and FGs instead of TDs means this one is still alive. Must score drive now for colts, as the way bolts can run it tonight they are capable of draining the clock in next possession
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:05 AM BST
Nice quick drive from luck 16-9. One score game 7.21 left. Quite exciting
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:14 AM BST
Another luck special? Colts backed up but have the ball back. 4 mins left. TD to tie it
Report milla445 October 15, 2013 4:16 AM BST
Fell asleep in Q1, pleasingly awake just in time for the business end of this.

Not putting a penny on anything - always seem to be on the wrong end of Colts games.
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:16 AM BST
i smelt OT, but feeling less confident now
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:17 AM BST
4th down and colts choose to punt. 3.32 left and all timeouts.... Unless they try a fake
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:18 AM BST
all timeouts gone?
Report GoBallistic October 15, 2013 4:19 AM BST
I'd go for it on 4th down.  NFL coaches always want to keep the game alive whatever
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:21 AM BST
colts finnish
Report Knight Rider October 15, 2013 4:21 AM BST
I agree, GoBallistic.  They are just scared of taking risks and getting blamed for the loss.
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:22 AM BST
don't understand why they punted it before
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:26 AM BST
looks short
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:28 AM BST
That is close. If short about a 49yarder to wrap it up
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:29 AM BST
Or do you go for 4th and inches. Wonder which is percentage call
Report milla445 October 15, 2013 4:30 AM BST
I'm with Gruden, go for it - don't want to give Luck the ball close to midfield if the FG misses
Report GoBallistic October 15, 2013 4:31 AM BST
SD should also go for it on 4th down
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:31 AM BST
hope they go for it, mess it up, luck throws a TD, OT!!
Report wisewords October 15, 2013 4:32 AM BST
GSM, KICKED IT
Report Swardean October 15, 2013 4:33 AM BST
Great kick.
Report ClayDavis October 15, 2013 4:58 AM BST
Well done chargers backers - I got that one completely wrong
Report d13phe October 15, 2013 10:24 AM BST
same here Sad

didn't expect this result!
Report DirkDiggler October 15, 2013 2:19 PM BST
I went to bed @ HT I could see the Colts were getting nothing out of this game. I hate Chargers games, you never know what you're gonna get, let the Raiders **** all over you one week, then beat the Colts easy the week after? that's SD's MO for Rivers entire career.

This is the thing with SD if they get Rivers in synch and get the offense rolling, they are very tough to beat.

In hindsight look at that line, just -1 didn't that tell the tale? looking at these two teams you would have thought steal really, but it wasn't.


I wonder if the Colts got caught looking forward to Sunday?
Report d13phe October 15, 2013 4:09 PM BST
I watched the game this morning.

The Colts didn;t really look interested which surprises me.  this was a more important game than the Broncos as that is going to be a hard game to win.  they could have gone into that game with a 5-1 record and instead will be looking at 4-3 if they get beaten by the broncos.
Report DirkDiggler October 16, 2013 10:35 AM BST
That's not the way teams look at games though, the big game to them is Denver, not on the road in SD.
Report d13phe October 18, 2013 2:08 PM BST
your probably right but good teams look at one game in advance.

San diego was a very winnable game for the Colts. They dropped a ton of key catches.
Report DirkDiggler October 18, 2013 6:48 PM BST
I don't think you can make that statement to be honest. I think the good teams are more likely NOT to look ahead at all, the old 'one game at a time' cliche springs to mind.

Yeah SD was very winnable, and they did drop a ton of key catches, which may be coincidence or may be the evidence of a team sleep walking thru a game and looking ahead.


I doubt they come out flat on SNF, but they definitely were flat against SD, they also have to take the trianing wheels off Luck, that's how they're going to win not with Richardson who is pretty pedestrian at this level.


Colts -1 looked to be a gift to almost everyone, but it turned out to be a glistening Turd.
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