NFL Divisional Underdog System

As mentioned in the game thread the Jets covered the 11.5pt spread against the Patriots last night so we're 1-0 so far

Another system I like, although you only get about 5-6 plays a year with it, is Road Favourites after a Bye. These teams seem to be able to make better use of their Bye week than their opposition and more often than not, the Road Fav covers the spread (27-10-1 over last 7 seasons)

Looking at the matchups after each teams Bye week this season, we should get about 4-5 plays this year using this system, depending on how the season pans out

Week 5: Panthers @ Cardinals
Week 6: Steelers @ Jets
Week 9: Ravens @ Browns
Week 9: Titans @ Rams (maybe)
Week 9: Chargers @ Redskins
Week 10: Broncos @ Chargers
Week 11: Patriots @ Panthers
Week 11: Jets @ Buffalo (maybe)
Week 13: Bengals @ Chargers

Bet the Underdog in Divisional Matchups where there is a Double-Digit spread

Interesting. There is some logic to this, the spreads are presumably based on form for the most part. In Divisional match-ups there is a familiarity with the opposition which probably lessens the differences between the teams. Would have prepared at least 2-3 times against virtually the same team/coach etc in preceding seasons, so more knowledgeable, plus the added edge of sometimes local rivalries.

Don't generally bet based on spreads but might keep an eye on this.

Good work db.

One potential one for this week in the div underdog system

Tenn are currently + 9.0, maybe the line moves enough to get to +10, Texans also on a short week.

not a fan of systems but this seems fairly logical.

i think it will be a good year for big handicaps to get beaten

It's a parity driven league, so going against big spreads ought to be profitable.

Raiders +15.5 @ Broncos (Monday Night Football) fits the underdog system this weekend but it would take a brave man to back against the Broncos at the moment. A 22-pt win when 7.5-pt favs and then an 18-pt win when 3.5-pt favs tells you all you need to know about the Broncos current form.

Spreads of more than 2 TDs are however usually difficult to cover with the fear of a garbage time TD hanging over you right til the final whistle.

I'll record the bet as part of the system but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on it with real funds.

Not yet anyway - if I go 4-0 on my other bets on Sunday I'll probably back it on Monday

Since 1978, of the 26 underdogs of 17 or more points, 19 have covered.

Tennessee did clock easily by the way, despite not quite fitting the system.

Raiders +15.5 lost but the spread had reached 16 by kick-off which was a push but I'll record it as a loss for record-keeping so we're 1-1 so far

Cardinals +11.0 @ 49ers fits the system this week

Raiders are currently +9.5 @ Chiefs so if that hits 10.0 then it's worth a bet

I did bet the Raiders here but I think I only got 1.8 ish for 17.5.

Personally think the Raiders have a good chance to win straight.

B et365 do the teasers , so you can add 6 or 7 pts to any teams spread or Overs/Unders

You may find a few more selections this way?

Cheers, I need to check out 365 for NFL.

Cards lost by 12 to cap a super day for me!

Another possible candidates for you system this week.  And made further interesting that they are both home dogs.

Vikings and Rams.

Not sure either good enough though.

Rams +13.0 vs Seahawks fits the system tonight although Pete Carroll is 1 of only 2 coaches (Belichick is the other) who has no problem running up the score so I don't fancy it myself

Jaguars +11.5 @ Titans fit the system last night

3-2 for the season so far

Might just get KC to +10, I doubt it, but you never know.

Jaguars +10.0 @ Texans - I like this bet actually

Falcons are currently +9.5 at home to the Saints this Thursday so if that hits 10.0 then it's a bet

I think this is a go tonight. Hop it fails as Im on Denver