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Betting Systems are a bit like the Dallas Cowboys, you either love them or you hate them. I personally love them, IF you have a good one with a bit of logic to it.
One I've been bleating about over the last couple of years is Bet the Underdog in Divisional Matchups where there is a Double-Digit spread
The system itself is 61-39-2 over the last 7 full seasons so I'm going to keep a record of it this season on this thread and if it loses I'll never mention it again (and if it wins I'll get Betfair to sticky it LOL)
One I've been bleating about over the last couple of years is Bet the Underdog in Divisional Matchups where there is a Double-Digit spread
The system itself is 61-39-2 over the last 7 full seasons so I'm going to keep a record of it this season on this thread and if it loses I'll never mention it again (and if it wins I'll get Betfair to sticky it LOL)
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As mentioned in the game thread the Jets covered the 11.5pt spread against the Patriots last night so we're 1-0 so far
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Another system I like, although you only get about 5-6 plays a year with it, is Road Favourites after a Bye. These teams seem to be able to make better use of their Bye week than their opposition and more often than not, the Road Fav covers the spread (27-10-1 over last 7 seasons)
Looking at the matchups after each teams Bye week this season, we should get about 4-5 plays this year using this system, depending on how the season pans out Week 5: Panthers @ Cardinals Week 6: Steelers @ Jets Week 9: Ravens @ Browns Week 9: Titans @ Rams (maybe) Week 9: Chargers @ Redskins Week 10: Broncos @ Chargers Week 11: Patriots @ Panthers Week 11: Jets @ Buffalo (maybe) Week 13: Bengals @ Chargers |
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Bet the Underdog in Divisional Matchups where there is a Double-Digit spread
Interesting. There is some logic to this, the spreads are presumably based on form for the most part. In Divisional match-ups there is a familiarity with the opposition which probably lessens the differences between the teams. Would have prepared at least 2-3 times against virtually the same team/coach etc in preceding seasons, so more knowledgeable, plus the added edge of sometimes local rivalries. Don't generally bet based on spreads but might keep an eye on this. |
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Good work db.
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One potential one for this week in the div underdog system
Tenn are currently + 9.0, maybe the line moves enough to get to +10, Texans also on a short week. |
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not a fan of systems but this seems fairly logical.
i think it will be a good year for big handicaps to get beaten |
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It's a parity driven league, so going against big spreads ought to be profitable.
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Raiders +15.5 @ Broncos (Monday Night Football) fits the underdog system this weekend but it would take a brave man to back against the Broncos at the moment. A 22-pt win when 7.5-pt favs and then an 18-pt win when 3.5-pt favs tells you all you need to know about the Broncos current form.
Spreads of more than 2 TDs are however usually difficult to cover with the fear of a garbage time TD hanging over you right til the final whistle. I'll record the bet as part of the system but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on it with real funds. Not yet anyway - if I go 4-0 on my other bets on Sunday I'll probably back it on Monday |
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Since 1978, of the 26 underdogs of 17 or more points, 19 have covered.
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Tennessee did clock easily by the way, despite not quite fitting the system.
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Raiders +15.5 lost but the spread had reached 16 by kick-off which was a push but I'll record it as a loss for record-keeping so we're 1-1 so far
Cardinals +11.0 @ 49ers fits the system this week Raiders are currently +9.5 @ Chiefs so if that hits 10.0 then it's worth a bet |
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I did bet the Raiders here but I think I only got 1.8 ish for 17.5.
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Personally think the Raiders have a good chance to win straight.
B et365 do the teasers , so you can add 6 or 7 pts to any teams spread or Overs/Unders You may find a few more selections this way? |
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Cheers, I need to check out 365 for NFL.
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Cards lost by 12 to cap a super day for me!
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Another possible candidates for you system this week. And made further interesting that they are both home dogs.
Vikings and Rams. Not sure either good enough though. |
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Rams +13.0 vs Seahawks fits the system tonight although Pete Carroll is 1 of only 2 coaches (Belichick is the other) who has no problem running up the score so I don't fancy it myself
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Jaguars +11.5 @ Titans fit the system last night
3-2 for the season so far |
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Might just get KC to +10, I doubt it, but you never know.
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Jaguars +10.0 @ Texans - I like this bet actually
Falcons are currently +9.5 at home to the Saints this Thursday so if that hits 10.0 then it's a bet |
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I think this is a go tonight. Hop it fails as Im on Denver
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