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NFL Divisional Round

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By:

Leemo When: 12 Jan 13 23:13

Jan 12, 2013 -- 11:12PM, Sudoku_Junior wrote:

Is it just me or is the odds in the nfl crazy comparative to other sports. When you look at the game situation, margin of points and time left in the game and compare this to other sports (difficult concept so bare with me), the odds just seem bizarre.Just a random football game here, a teams 1-0 up (same as a one posssion game) wont be 1.12 with more than a half left. I know this is dependent upon which teams are playing who etc but thats my general point.You following?

I believe a one nil lead easier to defend than a 7-nil lead in the NFL, far easier IMO

By:

Jontyblade When: 12 Jan 13 23:13

cheers swardean.... gonna be a long night

By:

Jontyblade When: 12 Jan 13 23:14

who are the zebras going to favour if this stays tight?

By:

Swardean When: 12 Jan 13 23:14

Oh, yes d13, patchy memory last week, watching and typing through a haze of laphroaig

When is the 30 minute feature on the jags coming up?

By:

d13phe When: 12 Jan 13 23:15

green bay have a top 10 D in yards conceded

that surprised me

the more i think about the later game, the more it points towards the pack

By:

TheVis When: 12 Jan 13 23:15

If a football team starts at 1.25 SP and goes 1-0 up you can bet they have to be 1.12 or less

By:

incaseof When: 12 Jan 13 23:15

1.25 pre match...7pts up, ball at opponents side, start with ball 2nd half...1.12 probably correct...
Here I would say pre match price was wrong and market yet to correct it... same price as Pats vs Dolphins

By:

Swardean When: 12 Jan 13 23:15

My issue tonight is how often will AR be on the floor !!

By:

I win every time! When: 12 Jan 13 23:16

I bet the overs 43.5 so already weighed in lol. Had a cr@p afternoon on football (our version) so it's a relief. Why oh why don't I just focus on THIS gam!?!?

By:

d13phe When: 12 Jan 13 23:16

he has been safer since they benched jeff saturday

By:

incaseof When: 12 Jan 13 23:17

Packers top 5 secondary in league when healthy imho

By:

HARRY22 When: 12 Jan 13 23:17

been too short for a few weeks d13...layed off quite a bit tbh...wiser spreading it out on teams like baltimore and ravens at 20/1+.

By:

Jontyblade When: 12 Jan 13 23:17

will they delay the start of the 49ers game while this game is in triple overtime?

By:

Sudoku_Junior When: 12 Jan 13 23:18

Its more the comparison to other sports what intrigues me.

I suppose the point im trying to get across is to me and i have no stats to prove this, that the time left in an nfl game, bare in mind its alternate possessions which is different to other sports gives somewhat irrational odds when their is far too much time left in the game.

By:

Swardean When: 12 Jan 13 23:18

Mmmm, still not sure, not had a bet on the game yet, and may not do. Just think they will be in his face all night long. But when I priced it up I had it as a pick'em so on that basis I should back the pack on hcap but not sure if I can do it

By:

HARRY22 When: 12 Jan 13 23:18

Joined:
06 May 10
| Topic/replies: 7,242 | Blogger: Swardean's blog
My issue tonight is how often will AR be on the floor !!

agree...The giants killed him...not sure who exactly was missing that night on the O line but the niners will get to him...expect them to come out pumped up tonight.

By:

Swardean When: 12 Jan 13 23:19

Jonty, they will delay it anyway, likely 1.20 KO

By:

Jontyblade When: 12 Jan 13 23:19

wiser spreading it out on teams like baltimore and ravens at 20/1+.

are they 2 teams?????

By:

d13phe When: 12 Jan 13 23:19

is justin smith active?

By:

Jontyblade When: 12 Jan 13 23:19

Jonty, they will delay it anyway, likely 1.20 KO

i know.... just praying its a quick game as got kids footy tomorrow

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 12 Jan 13 23:19

Wouldn't be too confident about Flacco connecting with these bombs all night. That last drive is the only drive he really got some rhythm.

By:

Sudoku_Junior When: 12 Jan 13 23:20

Last post on this, promise.

But whats a better 1.12 shot, South Africa in the cricket with a 525 lead against a hapless New Zealand side or the broncos here with a 7 point lead.

By:

dlarssonf When: 12 Jan 13 23:20

Yep d13phe

By:

HARRY22 When: 12 Jan 13 23:20

swardean...the packers game is a real headache for punters betting on the game..no need for me to get involved but I think I would go with the niners if pushed

By:

I win every time! When: 12 Jan 13 23:20

I tried trading NFL a few times but I was rubbish at it so decided to go straight up - mainly on unders / overs which I do quite well in. Rarely bet anything else. I suppose I like the absolute of an unders / overs rather than the 'feel' for the correctness of odds in play v game situation

By:

dlarssonf When: 12 Jan 13 23:21

Head says 49ers, heart hoping packers

By:

d13phe When: 12 Jan 13 23:21

cheers dlarsson

that makes me less confident but wonder if he is about as active as Ware was against the Redskins

nasty injury

By:

kingmax When: 12 Jan 13 23:21

Jan 12, 2013 -- 11:20PM, Sudoku_Junior wrote:

Last post on this, promise. But whats a better 1.12 shot, South Africa in the cricket with a 525 lead against a hapless New Zealand side or the broncos here with a 7 point lead.

By:

I win every time! When: 12 Jan 13 23:21

Soduko - 3 results possible in a test

By:

dlarssonf When: 12 Jan 13 23:22

Yeah that is the thing d13phe

By:

I win every time! When: 12 Jan 13 23:22

(*or 4 results possible for the pedants amongst us lol

)

By:

Wallflower When: 12 Jan 13 23:22

Soduku

You should enjoy the 1.12 with one score difference against a good team. Obviously under-priced - it didn't really matter if it went against you next drive, 1.05 maybe - 7 ticks...not a big deal, given the potential upside.

However I will say this, the NFL market may get wiser over time (like soccer is now, so tight, so accurate, rarely wrong) - we could be harking back in 2018 or so, about tonight i.e. "hey, Wallflower, remember the good ol' days, when we could get 1.12?". Nobody will believe us

By:

d13phe When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

SA every day of the week

By:

rubyisgodinthesaddle When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

Key now is to use Ray Rice more....hasn't made much yardage and a few play actions may open up the backfield behind the dl

By:

dlarssonf When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

By:

kingmax When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

nz have to bat another 3 days

By:

GoldCupWinner When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

ARGH!!!!

By:

db1974 When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

No way - that is unbelievable

By:

Leemo When: 12 Jan 13 23:23

lol

By: