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db1974
02 Jan 13 11:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 8,612 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Playoffs are here - WOO HOO

Here's the lines

Sat 21:30 - Bengals @ Texans -4.5
Sun 01:00 - Vikings @ Packers -8.0 (7.5 available)
Sun 18:00 - Colts @ Ravens -6.5
Sun 21:30 - Seahawks @ Redskins +3.0 (2.5 available)

The only one I like so far is Redskins on the Moneyline (currently 7/5 but drifitng so could get more later in the week). Since 1990 (226 matches covering 23 seasons), there have been only 22 Playoff matches where the Road team was the Favourite. The underdog has covered 13 of those 22 matches, winning 12 of them outright. In addition to this, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 3-5 on the road this year with wins against the Panthers, Bills, & an imploding Bears team in Week 13. While I appreciate that they are coming into the Playoffs on an impressive run of form, it's not like the Redskins have limped into the Playoffs themselves given that they are currently on a 7-game winning streak, a run which includes 5 divisional games in one of the closest divisions in the League this year. The reality is that this game could go either way but I think that the value lies with the home team getting points.
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Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:45 AM GMT
Hopefully we dont get to find out grayhawk :)

First to eat humble pie when I'm wrong though.
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:45 AM GMT
Joined: 18 Jul 03 | Topic/replies: 20,909 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
not seen an easier schedule than the Broncos this season

patriots atlanta ravens on the road  3 out of 8 road games...that is tough..giants had a nightmare schedule.
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 12:45 AM GMT
the 49ers, pack and seahawks have all had killer schedules
Report db1974 January 7, 2013 12:46 AM GMT
Pinny going SEA +2.5 @ 1.926 as of now
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
they only beat one of those though Harry

and the ravens had half a D when they did it
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
yes they only beat one of them...I am just saying they had tough road games in those 3 win or lose
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
yeah confirm what DB has said, seen -2 aswell
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
Pack an easier than average schedule on DVOA fwiw, pretty much average.

Naked eye tells the same story.

P*ss easy division, plus Titans, Cards, Jax !
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 12:48 AM GMT
Date & Time    Favorite    Line    Underdog    Total
1/12 4:30 ET    At Denver     -9    Baltimore    45
1/12 8:00 ET    At San Francisco -3    Green Bay    45
1/13 1:00 ET    At Atlanta     -2    Seattle            45.5
1/13 4:30 ET    At New England     -9.5    Houston            48.5
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:48 AM GMT
niners had the packers and patriots on the road...2 wins is impressive...seattle had them at home.
Report grayhawk January 7, 2013 12:49 AM GMT
Grin Lori ....i'll take it even though Bronco's one of only two teams that can damage me.
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 12:49 AM GMT
they had 6 games against the leagues bunnys Chiefs, Raiders and chargers

i think we will find out if they are for real next week as the full Ravens D are coming to town this time
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:49 AM GMT
Broncos doesn't look much harder to naked eye tbf
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:50 AM GMT
Patriots are the team to beat in the afc...nfc is tricky..still think the winner of the niners pack game wins it..
Report judorick January 7, 2013 12:50 AM GMT
I'm gonna take the treble PATS + 49ers + Broncos, I see no upsets coming in this round

Sea - Atl I'm leaving out
Report grayhawk January 7, 2013 12:50 AM GMT
Am i thinking correctly that Broncos opponents won an average of 3.7 games this season?
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:51 AM GMT
can only see denver keeping up with the patriots scoring power..gronk back also  Shocked
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:51 AM GMT
That can't be right grayhawk. They played the Patriots and Buccs and Saints, that's a few wins.
Report HARRY22 January 7, 2013 12:51 AM GMT
layed a lot of broncos green and topped up on the patriots over the last week
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 12:52 AM GMT
I was against Seattle tonight but they strike me now as a bit of a gang excuse the pun! Think they like the idea now of everyone saying they can't go east and win big games! Load of pressure on Ryan and coach smith next week and Seattle look like they're just the boys to heap more post season misery on them. Think they'll feel a lot happier back on AstroTurf too which can only help their cause.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 12:52 AM GMT
If you only count against the teams Broncos beat, it could be right...
Report grayhawk January 7, 2013 12:52 AM GMT
I thought i read that somewhere yesterday.....must have been wrong.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:52 AM GMT
That's possible
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 12:53 AM GMT
well the chiefs and raiders probably make up for a few losses but 3.7 feels low
Report ClayDavis January 7, 2013 12:53 AM GMT
RG III on one leg carved up the Seahawks in the 1st quarter tonight - can u imagine what Brady or Manning would do to them in New Orleans?
Report grayhawk January 7, 2013 12:54 AM GMT
Maybe that's what it was incaseof.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:54 AM GMT
He completed 6 passes for 70 or so yards in 1.25 quarters, it's not exactly carving up. Both touchdowns were on third down and medium.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:55 AM GMT
The patriots Defensive DVOA is POSITIVE!
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 12:55 AM GMT
I thought it was Morris myself had the big 1st qtr rather than rg3 no?
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:55 AM GMT
yeah, morris rodgered them.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:56 AM GMT
Which is odd as that's what Carrol thought he could stop. Never sure who's playing what mind games, but I think it surprised him.
Report judorick January 7, 2013 12:56 AM GMT
anyway, what do the board think the Pats are gonna do to the Texans? I've been of the opinion that TEX has been over rated all season and they are gonna get creamed big time...

views?
Report db1974 January 7, 2013 12:58 AM GMT
The Broncos SOV is 80-128
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:58 AM GMT
Tex definitely been overrated all season, but prices fallen back into reality now.

I want to see some numbers on just how much having a bye helps... as sometimes I'm not entirely sure it does. (It must do, but maybe not as much as you'd imagine)
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 12:58 AM GMT
I no rg3 was knackered but surely some credit must go to Seattle defence tonight for making  adjustments
Report Lori January 7, 2013 12:59 AM GMT
I stopped using W/L records about 5 years ago. Which oddly is when my results got better. DVOA is a better predictor of future events.

I use them in weeks 16 and 17 to determine motivation but that's about it.
Report db1974 January 7, 2013 12:59 AM GMT
Very difficult to separate the bye from homefield advantage
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:00 AM GMT
That doesn't render W-L irrelevant by the way, in case that sounded snotty.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:00 AM GMT
Texans has to run the ball well, not easy vs Pats and Watt has to play unreal for them to win
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:00 AM GMT
Yeah, that's a fair point too... and seeding too.
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 1:01 AM GMT
Surely it's as simple as pats score 1st and its game over?! I thought Schaub looked absolutely terrified whole game yesterday god knows what he,ll be like in foxboro especially after the debacle of Monday night football!
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:01 AM GMT
Patriots Rush D half decent these days isn't it?

Looks like a hellish matchup for the Texans at a glance, but then the prices already tell us that.
Report The real Moaner January 7, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
Atlanta should be more like -5 than -2. The Seattle love affair is one that I just can't get. An ordinary side, who have been poor the last two weeks. (They moved the ball well tonight, but lacked clinicality and could not stop RG3 when healthy.)
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:03 AM GMT
I think it has to end up as a second half shootout with the Texans chasing. Might end up with some value in the overs, but they have to keep it vaguely competetive for that.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:04 AM GMT
They're fourth on O and D, and first overall moaner, what more can they do to impress?
Report grayhawk January 7, 2013 1:04 AM GMT
Whatever i was reading concerning the Broncos schedule i've got it wrong Blush.

Goodnight lads anyway.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:04 AM GMT
no probs grayhawk, might have been 7.3? which is still pretty easy?
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:05 AM GMT
yeah that front is good and Wilfork a beast, really is a poor match up for them
Ravens maybe is value as outsider right now, not deiced on that yet
Report judorick January 7, 2013 1:05 AM GMT
well I managed to lay TEX at the bottom of the price swing for a big red (when they were being really hyped, around 6.2 average) and have backed NE, 49ers, Packers and WASH (Sad) so hopefully all goes to plan and the Pats win. Going to ignore my SB market liabilities and lump the Pats anyway
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:06 AM GMT
I'm firmly in the "Flacco is not elite" club, but there's no doubt he can have his moments.

If they gameplan brilliantly it may be possible to get a big time of possession and score on a decent % of drives to have a chance?
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:07 AM GMT
you still seems to be in a good position in the outright market even with Redskins out Happy
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:08 AM GMT
Yeah, that looks a nice enough book.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:09 AM GMT
well off some reason he always looks to be "elite" vs Pats, and that D seems to trouble Brady..so, but has to beat Manning first Silly
Report Hayden January 7, 2013 1:09 AM GMT
Bet365 lines out...

Denver -9.0
totals 45.5

SF  -3.0
Totals 45.0

Falcons -1.5
Totals 45.5

Pats -9.0
Totals 48.0
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 1:09 AM GMT
Pinnacle showing hawks only getting 1 next week!
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:10 AM GMT
I think the way they beat Manning is by putting it in Rice's hands and telling Flacco to keep it short. Chew up the clock, try to get lucky on D and see if they can win the overtime coinflip :p
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 1:11 AM GMT
Think ill wait for everyone to back the falcons! Or hope! Lol!
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:12 AM GMT
I'm a terrible judge of line moves, you think the Falcons will be rated higher than the Seahawks by the public?
Report db1974 January 7, 2013 1:12 AM GMT
I always think that teams who lost to a playoff opponent during the regular season seem to perform better in the re-match. Don't have any stats to back this up, just a feeling I have

I did read on Twitter last night that the last 6 times that the Patriots have been knocked out of the playoffs, it was to a team that they beat earlier in the regular season:
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:12 AM GMT
haha, worry for Ravens is Rice two fumbles today, was he on the field after the second? Back up played well but still..
Report db1974 January 7, 2013 1:13 AM GMT
Pinny showing Hawks +1 @ 2.15, you can also get +2.5 @ 1.952 (better odds than 30 mins ago when it was 1.926)
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:13 AM GMT
Fumbles less important against Denver because they score anyway when they get the ball wherever it is.... I'm not saying that's a good thing of course...
Report The real Moaner January 7, 2013 1:14 AM GMT
Seattle at home are a good team. Away, they are ordinary. All the stats look to back that up. Even if you discount their first three away games, you have a defensive struggle at San Francisco, poor games at Detroit and Miami, a 4th Q great performance against Chicago and a good performance against an out of sorts Buffalo at a neutral venue. Away from home, they are ordinary.

They had a purple patch when they first introduced the read-option and teams had no film to defend. Then, St Louis held them up at home and they come out in Washington, look poor and only get going when Washington's QB gets injured.

Atlanta have been consistent all year and are a good team.

Winning three tough games away from home with a rookie QB is going to be tough but they seem to be able to do no wrong in some people's eyes.
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 1:14 AM GMT
Never looks like he wants it enough flacco to me get the impression win or lose he ain't that bothered. Expression never changes! Not something u could aim at Brady or manning who are constantly critiquing every play good or bad!
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:16 AM GMT
I thought Falcons would start -3/-2.5 and move to -1.5..not sure public will move Seahawks to evs/fav
Report werthecardinals January 7, 2013 1:16 AM GMT
I like hawks to win but I think the lines wrong I'd expect a move for falcons during the week
Report GoldCupWinner January 7, 2013 1:19 AM GMT
Got to back Ravens +9 that's a huge line!
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:20 AM GMT
yep surprised by starting line in that game, I also believe money will move down the line for Packers
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:21 AM GMT
They're ranked number one on DVOA, that's pretty much the equivalent of doing no wrong.

All of your points are valid, which is why they're evens-ish for the game, but they're probably the best team in the NFC, and I don't think it's even debateable that the Falcons are the worst of the four remaining.

Not sure what you were watching today, but Griffin doesn't play D and Seattle scored 24 points despite having to play differently as their kicker was injured and a fluke fumble on the goalline.

As to "The purple patch", they were clear leaders in the NFC by about week nine and that has played out since. It's just numbers catching up to reality.

Ryan's experience is a big factor, as will be Rodgers, but I think you're overlooking just how good an all around team the Seahawks are this season.
They're not all-dominating in any aspect of the game but all around they're top of the pile. I agree that doesn't make them unbeatable, but as a gambling forum we should be looking for prices out of line, and currently they're too long for the superbowl, and have been for a long time.

The good news is we get to win a p**sing contest over it next week, the bad news is that the result proves nothing, as it's clearly a pretty close call either way.
Report The real Moaner January 7, 2013 1:26 AM GMT
Even the head of FO is doubting Seattle's DVOA on Twitter as a consequence of their home / away differences.

Am I being overly harsh on Seattle? Probably. If they had a home run to the SB, I would make them NFC Favourites but to win at two of Atl / SF / GB and then defeat NE / Den? Is that really an 8/1 shot? No doubt they were a good price, with hindsight, throughout the year, but now?
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:28 AM GMT
That's probably not an 8/1 shot.

You're forgetting they might play GB then HOU, it doesn't have to be SF then DEN/NE

I do understand the home/away differences, over the last few years I've done well opposing them on the road, but I do think they've closed that gap - which is a bit rich when they're 8-0 at home of course.

I should crunch some numbers as I know the people left in this thread at this time are the good guys/smart guys and I'm not keen on being on my own!
Report GoldCupWinner January 7, 2013 1:29 AM GMT
I was a little disappointed in Green Bay yesterday, I thought they could have racked up more points than they did. Maybe they were just too comftable with the game being won very early on.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:29 AM GMT
If I could have one value bet right now it would be to lay GB at 8.4 though, but the sentiments on here make me wonder if they'll shorten further.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:30 AM GMT
well for me Seahawks is evs at candlestick and 2.75ish at lambeau...
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:30 AM GMT
but I see you don't rate them highly Happy
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:31 AM GMT
I'd have them as dogs at candlestick though, and possibly evens at lambeau
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:33 AM GMT
It's made a harder discussion because we don't have blatantly brilliant and awful teams this year. The top eight is probably the top eight teams (Giants might want a chat with me about that) give or take, and there's plenty of room for subjective assessment compared to usual.

That should give more weight to those talking about standard of QB in fairness, as the intangible leadship yadda yadda is probably worth a bit more in a tighter contest.

However we've got five teams that were decent last year and three that weren't so it brings some natural bias in there too.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:33 AM GMT
well I can really see public jump on Packers if they beat SF at candlestick
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:35 AM GMT
Same for Seahawks winning in Atlanta though, but again I'll defer to others when it comes to assessing what the public will do as I have to use sites to tell me where the money is as I'm so woeful at judging what others will think.
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:35 AM GMT
For instance it's the first time I've been on this thread all season and expected to see a Seahawks lovefest :D
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:36 AM GMT
If you had to pick one of houston or baltimore , which one?

I think Ravens for me, albeit close, and am not sure they're the right way around in the market.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:37 AM GMT
haha, how has the season been for you so far ?
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:37 AM GMT
to win next week or for the SB ?
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:38 AM GMT
I posted all my picks on twitter this year and did pretty well. I'm good when I stick to what I know (game handicaps and totals) and pretty rancid when I try to do anything clever!

To win SB
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:39 AM GMT
I didn't finish too clever but think I won 9-10 units with a big bet of no more than 2 all year and no more than four bets a week (and usually fewer)
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:39 AM GMT
Will update the YTD at some point :p
Report Swagger January 7, 2013 1:41 AM GMT
Griffin doesn't play Defence - the whole point about him all but being in a wheelchair for 3 quarters meant the Redskins Defence was on the pitch much longer than they would have been if RG3 was fit (or if he wasn't playing) and obviously the Seahawks would score less points as a result. Plus a lot of the points were scored as a result of RG3 clearly not being fit. I wouldn't exactly be brimming with confidence if i was a Seattle fan tonight, more thanking my lucky stars that RG3's knee worsened so he couldn't rush and worrying about some very poor decision making from Wilson. They might get away with it against Atalanta (although i fancy the Falcons) but in my opinion, they would get tanned at either SF or the Pack. Also looking at all the stats is sometimes irrelevant as Denver are a different team now to what they were early in the season and the Pack have their Defence back so again will be a different proposition in the Play Offs.

I also think if the Packers played the Seahawks, Rogers would give Wilson a very hard lesson.

For Seattle to beat Atalanta away, the Pack/49ers away and likely the Pats or Denver in a dome, I would rank about at least a 14/1 chance. The 7/1 looks horrific value in my opinion, but that's just my opinion!
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:42 AM GMT
easily Ravens for the SB, look how close they were last year, beat NE early this year...Texans still not proved to be a team that can win big games now they got to win three straight! 

name on twitter?
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:42 AM GMT
@HaydenSikh
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:43 AM GMT
Not the best of people to follow outside of NFL season tbh, mostly drivel.
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:44 AM GMT
hahaha, you still betting on tennis?
Report Lori January 7, 2013 1:46 AM GMT
I will be come the Aus open, not done any for a while though.

Got to go do some bits, hope it's all well at your end!
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:50 AM GMT
All good here.

Good then I will check out your twitter during AO open nights and look for some good drivel to keep me awake!
Report incaseof January 7, 2013 1:51 AM GMT
January is a crazy betting month!
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 9:25 AM GMT
i am seriously considering a very big punt on the Ravens on the handicap against the Broncos.

the 9 point line is frankly ridiculous.

the last time they met at Baltimore the ravens had no defence and Cam Cameron calling plays.  Different ball game now.

I also think having Bernard Pearce is a bit of a gamechanger for the Ravens as it takes the load of Ray Rice.
Report Fallen Angel January 7, 2013 11:11 AM GMT
Seattle price moved back into the realms of normality now. Whatever my thoughts on their chances of winning from a mathematics point of view if they were receiving points from Atlanta they couldn;t be shorter than 9.0.
Report d13phe January 7, 2013 11:27 AM GMT
i dont think they will be receiving points from atlanta by the end of the week.
Report dlarssonf January 7, 2013 11:33 AM GMT
I think Seattle have a great chance against Atlanta..... then I think they will beat the 49ers also but if it's the packers they meet I fancy the packers
Report DirkDiggler January 7, 2013 11:37 AM GMT
I'll say this - yes, the Seahawks won because RGIII was hurt or rather MS terrible management of the situation, but they did move the ball with ease all night. They did not fold when 14-0 down, let's remember that on the same bad leg RG put 14 points on them in no time and then did nothing. Are the Skins a better team than Seattle? I don't think they are, their defense is not as good, the run games are a wash and we've seen Wilson is a match for RG. Yes RG was hobbled, but the skins could not complete a pass for 3/4 of the game.

The skins came out and blew away Sea for 1 quarter, that can happen to any good team, esp. on the road in the post season, look what SFG did to NE, anyone think SFG are better?

Fortune favored Seattle last night, but it does not make the Hawks a poorer team because of it.

Don't be fooled by 1 quarter of football.
Report DirkDiggler January 7, 2013 11:38 AM GMT
I'll take Seattle again next week, but right now I would favor GB against them later on.
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