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Im against you again
I am all over the seahawks here. I do not see how redskins win unless Wilson has a nightmare game. they have a very good running game and probably the best offensive line in the league against a pretty poor redskins D. they are good turning the ball over in the air but doubt that the ball will be thrown much and they are vulnerable to big plays, which is exactly what the seahawks do. They have a defense that gives up hardly any points and can protect the run and the pass. RG3 is noticeably banged up and this is probably a year too early for this team. |
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Well I'm playing the numbers here more than anything else TBH.
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I suppose the question is how much can RG3 improve physically in a week? The redskins beat the cowboys with a near perfect gameplan imo, get the ball out of RG3 quickly in the passing game, and then they just ran a banged up cowboys D to death.
Although i think the redskins are an offensive threat, its their defense what worries me in this game, the seahawks can be just as explosive as the redskins imo with lynch and wilson and i expect them to put up points. Id be uncomfortable backing the hawks at the prices however, purely on the fact its a cross country road game. On another note, the packers and ravens are far far too short. |
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One bet for me this week. Texans to cover the spread -4.5 points. I think they will come back roaring at home and hammer the Bengals. Really disappointed with the Packers last week given the # 2 seed was on the line, Rodgers really wanted to win as well you could see it and to score well over 30 points away from home and lose is very poor so I couldn't predict this weeks match at all given how wrong I got it last week.
Redskins and Seahawks just making up the numbers in my opinion, have no interest in the match. Good luck with your bets |
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Large SU Double for me:-
Texans and Seahawks. No strong views (or cares) on the other games. |
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Yes i'm glad you are with the Texans Swardean, whenever you oppose my pick you are always right!
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Fingers crossed for both of us swagger, after the final games last week an early line was texans -3. I posted that that was a really strong bet for me. However, line moved almost instantly and din't get anything on, so playing safe in the SU. No need to be greedy.
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I dont see how anyone can be confident on the Texans. They look a shadow of the team earlier in the season and they are probably stunned that have to play on Wild card weekend. Losing Cushing mid season was a big blow and they have really limped into the playoffs.
Shaub was sacked 15 times in the first 12 games but 12 in just the last 4. Cincinatti rank 3rd in total sacks and i cant see how Houstons OL will stop Atkins and Johnson getting to the QB. They are a far better team than last year especially on Defence and Dalton and Green have another year on their backs. Houston will need to bring their A game to the table for this one and they just havent been showing it recently |
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Early thoughts.
I just see Seattle as better all-round team right now, and RG III is hurt. Both these guys have been spectacular this season and neither is 'overrated' as some cretins have argued. You always know when you read 'overrated' in sports it's just another way of saying 'I don't like him/them, but I have no real argument'. What do they say? on the road pack your defense and run game, Seattle have both. Seattle are really well-rounded, I think this is reflected in the line which favours Seattle and has been moving in their direction. Seattle are not 'overrated they're very solid indeed. I think this will go back and forth, it will be close and i'll probably look to trade and green out. Best game of the weekend, and a great entree to the National Championship game - roll tide!!! What a great weekend of football. People can rightly crib the Texans on recent form, no they are not a monster, the same way that Atlanta never were, but this Bengal team is not good, they're only in because the Steelers were an utter shambles for the last month of the season, this poor team has limped in behind another team with no chance of winning the SB. I think at home in a loud stadium the Texans will just about handle the Bengals, Dalton has yet to show me he's a big game QB, and he's going to have to have a big game here. I really shouldn't but If I can get -7.0 on Discount Double Check @ home in the post-season, i'll take it. Minny are one dimensional, and similarly to Dalton, CP is going to have the best game of his career. Can he? I certainly liked the look of anything around -7.0 for the Colts, they have so much mojo working with the whole Chuck Pagano thing and rightly so, I see Balti as a team that will run into Denver/Ne and get whacked out, so why would I really fear them taking the Colts on minus TD? Overall the lines look about right to me. Nothing set in stone at this point for me, more work to be done, I just wish they'd play the early sat games @ 6.00 not 9.30. |
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Had a bit of Texans -6.0 at 2.17 with Pinny. I'm comfortable giving up the extra 1.5 pts as 5 is the only number that will completely kill the bet (as compared to taking the -4.5 obviously) and it is a rare enough margin in NFL (< 3% of matches are won by 5 pts exactly)
I think that the Ravens will beat the Colts but I'm not comfortable giving up 7 points so probably just leave that game alone entirely. |
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That makes sense.
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db - do you have stats for the winning margins?
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Yes, every Regular season game since 2002 and every Playoff Game since 1990. Also has every spread and total as well. It's in Excel Spreadsheet form. If you want it, PM me your email address and I'll send it over to you.
I just filter different columns to find whatever info I'm looking for. I keep meaning to teach myself proper databases but never seem to find the time to get around to it. |
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If anyone else wants it then PM me too
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the bengals gave the texans a close game last year and i think the bengals are a bit better/more experienced than last year and Texans are probably the same.
I am not saying the Bengals win but I wouldnt be surprised if they did. I am going to back the Colts and Bengals this week as both are form teams playing with lots of confidence against teams that seem to be on their way down. i agree with the sentiments that the pack are too short. The vikings are a vastly underrated team and this will be a lot closer than the betting suggests. |
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sent db
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d13 - It was 31-10 last year, I asssume you're talking about the playoff game, IIRC it was close for a while then Foster blew them away.
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@db1974, I agree with analysis regarding the Seahawks @ Redskins. My ELO model has this as a virtually spot on pick-em. Seattle slight favs before the home advantage comes into play. I am surprised there is such a discrepancy in the prices. I have Washington as receiving a slightly easier schedule and being in an easier division ranking wise but everything else points to an even match up.
My model also gave Seattle a huge boost for that hammering of San Fransisco which maybe is a bit overdone. Happy to take Washington directly on the win market. There was a decent article on betting.betfair on the fate of the seeds after the wildcard round which was food for thought. All the other prices seemed sensible to me. I was trying to make a case for Houston but I just couldn't, I have that match-up priced 1.41 vs. 3.43 but I only play when the prices are 10% different to betfair. Houston ELO has collapsed in recent weeks bad news for my superbowl bet |
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dirk
yes. I remember watching it thinking it was close. just looking back the score was 31-10 but i remember Dalton throwing a couple of picks at the wrong time. it felt a lot closer than the score suggests. |
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The Bengals/Texans is an interesting game for me as well. I think the key determinates of the game is how well the Bengals can stop the Texans running, particularly early in the game and how well Green-Ellis ( or the Bengals runner )does against the Texans. I think if things start going wrong for Texas early their heads will drop. Even with a decent early lead in the game the Bengals will still be a nice price.
Bengals are a moderate side though so its definetly a case of the Texans having already finished their season. |
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It did feel like a close game mate for quite a while, then Hou pulled away. I remember it well, had money on Houston, and was irate fir quite a while.
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Interesting stats db. And whilst I don't doubt the validity I wonder how many of those playoff games had the wildcard team coming into the game with a better overall record?
However other stats are indeed against seattle, they have not won an away playoff game since 1983 (nine matches I think). That said I think they manage to find a win this week. |
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Rarely make predictions......only made one this year.......Eagles to beat Redskins Week 16, ah well.
Trading in-play is the way to go for me in the NFL. But its January, - love this month for lots of reasons NFL play-offs being one of them. So why not. The stand-out for me is Seahawks 1.73. They are contenders - a very physical, powerful team right now (though I hate Pete Carroll, a complete wally); Redskins are not, still developing. I know they are away but maybe that's why they are priced as high as they are. I've noticed over twenty years, differences tend to be accentuated more so come the play-offs. Expect this to happen here. Packers to prevail, but I'll be on both offenses when they have the ball, backing a bit, then laying (a bit less hopefully!) Ravens should have too much for Colts so I think 1.36 is reasonable value - watch and play for me with no initial plan. No call on the Bengals@Texans.......initial, but cautious, tendency will be to be opening back on the Bengals with a view to trade. Good luck all. |
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Why is Pete Carroll a wally exactly?
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Trading in-play is the way to go for me in the NFL.
>>>I think you're right on this though. |
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DirkDiggler 05 Jan 13 15:18
Why is Pete Carroll a wally exactly? =========================================== Without going into in's and out's - its more about his ability to lie effortlessly - see USC from a few years back. Also, still does it in conferences (ie. fake punt against the Bills). Who cares they ran a fake punt - just stop being so disingenuous. Whinges and moans too much when calls/decisions go against him and then all "man-up" when they go for him. Classless on the Golden Tate / Packers call. Besides I don't like the smug arrogant head on him (Seems to be a good coach though). |
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Sounds like basically every coach of every major college program, and probably most of the minor ones. Whinges and moans? Bellichick, Harbaugh x 2? The Hairballs are a disgrace.
If we're talking about cheating, well BB is GOAT at that. He's a great coach, and no worse than the rest of them. |
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tough game first up.
bengals with the obvious momentum but tough place to win might be worth watching in play this one. if the Bengals can stop the run they win imo. |
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i agree in play i think, should go back and forth
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Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
"@TomPelissero: I'm told #Vikings QB Christian Ponder is dealing with bursitis, may need elbow drained. Still . |
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Already pinned my colours to the mast on first game. Texans quite strongly for me. GL all.
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im finding it hard tbh
home team, out of form on a downslope but probably with the better offense vs a young team who have won 7 out of 8 with a tough defense. really hard to call for me. |
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Same for me in tonights late game, cant find a bet I like
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1st game , best bet UNDERS
also take the quad-pot Cinncy +4.5 & Under 43.5 Happy Wild Card Day |
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swardean
can i ask why your so keen on the texans? |
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JJ Watts dad is a firefighter and it on duty
that guy is nuts |
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Strangely enough the main reason I like the Texans is that I don't like the Bengals. Despite some 'bad' results recently I still think they have a decent enough defence and they are not facing a GB or Patriots Offence. I think Dalton will struggle to put up points.
The current slide of results is a concern but with a playoff spot practically in the bag at half way I am sure they lost sum intensity. Will be hard to pick it up again but think they will do enough. Not a massive bet for me but like them enough to have a go. GL |
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With the movement out to 10 in the Vikings Packers line really starting to look like Joe Webb will be starting.
The line is moving the wrong way! |
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Have a hunch for overs here.
Think this really is a tough game to call, so happy to be on the bengals at the prices. |