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db1974
02 Jan 13 12:30
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Playoffs are here - WOO HOO

Here's the lines

Sat 21:30 - Bengals @ Texans -4.5
Sun 01:00 - Vikings @ Packers -8.0 (7.5 available)
Sun 18:00 - Colts @ Ravens -6.5
Sun 21:30 - Seahawks @ Redskins +3.0 (2.5 available)

The only one I like so far is Redskins on the Moneyline (currently 7/5 but drifitng so could get more later in the week). Since 1990 (226 matches covering 23 seasons), there have been only 22 Playoff matches where the Road team was the Favourite. The underdog has covered 13 of those 22 matches, winning 12 of them outright. In addition to this, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 3-5 on the road this year with wins against the Panthers, Bills, & an imploding Bears team in Week 13. While I appreciate that they are coming into the Playoffs on an impressive run of form, it's not like the Redskins have limped into the Playoffs themselves given that they are currently on a 7-game winning streak, a run which includes 5 divisional games in one of the closest divisions in the League this year. The reality is that this game could go either way but I think that the value lies with the home team getting points.

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By:
d13phe
When: 02 Jan 13 14:49
Im against you again Plain

I am all over the seahawks here.  I do not see how redskins win unless Wilson has a nightmare game.

they have a very good running game and probably the best offensive line in the league against a pretty poor redskins D.  they are good turning the ball over in the air but doubt that the ball will be thrown much and they are vulnerable to big plays, which is exactly what the seahawks do.

They have a defense that gives up hardly any points and can protect the run and the pass.

RG3 is noticeably banged up and this is probably a year too early for this team.
By:
db1974
When: 02 Jan 13 15:48
Well I'm playing the numbers here more than anything else TBH.
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 02 Jan 13 17:35
I suppose the question is how much can RG3 improve physically in a week? The redskins beat the cowboys with a near perfect gameplan imo, get the ball out of RG3 quickly in the passing game, and then they just ran a banged up cowboys D to death.

Although i think the redskins are an offensive threat, its their defense what worries me in this game, the seahawks can be just as explosive as the redskins imo with lynch and wilson and i expect them to put up points.

Id be uncomfortable backing the hawks at the prices however, purely on the fact its a cross country road game.

On another note, the packers and ravens are far far too short.
By:
Swagger
When: 04 Jan 13 00:11
One bet for me this week. Texans to cover the spread -4.5 points. I think they will come back roaring at home and hammer the Bengals. Really disappointed with the Packers last week given the # 2 seed was on the line, Rodgers really wanted to win as well you could see it and to score well over 30 points away from home and lose is very poor so I couldn't predict this weeks match at all given how wrong I got it last week.

Redskins and Seahawks just making up the numbers in my opinion, have no interest in the match.

Good luck with your bets
By:
Swardean
When: 04 Jan 13 00:13
Large SU Double for me:-

Texans and Seahawks.

No strong views (or cares) on the other games.
By:
Swagger
When: 04 Jan 13 00:16
Yes i'm glad you are with the Texans Swardean, whenever you oppose my pick you are always right! Plain
By:
Swardean
When: 04 Jan 13 00:25
Fingers crossed for both of us swagger, after the final games last week an early line was texans -3.  I posted that that was a really strong bet for me.  However, line moved almost instantly and din't get anything on, so playing safe in the SU.  No need to be greedy.
By:
willz
When: 04 Jan 13 09:23
I dont see how anyone can be confident on the Texans. They look a shadow of the team earlier in the season and they are probably stunned that have to play on Wild card weekend. Losing Cushing mid season was a big blow and they have really limped into the playoffs.
Shaub was sacked 15 times in the first 12 games but 12 in just the last 4. Cincinatti rank 3rd in total sacks and i cant see how Houstons OL will stop Atkins and Johnson getting to the QB. They are a far better team than last year especially on Defence and Dalton and Green have another year on their backs. Houston will need to bring their A game to the table for this one and they just havent been showing it recently
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 11:27
Early thoughts.


I just see Seattle as better all-round team right now, and RG III is hurt. Both these guys have been spectacular this season and neither is 'overrated' as some cretins have argued. You always know when you read 'overrated' in sports it's just another way of saying 'I don't like him/them, but I have no real argument'.

What do they say? on the road pack your defense and run game, Seattle have both. Seattle are really well-rounded, I think this is reflected in the line which favours Seattle and has been moving in their direction. Seattle are not 'overrated they're very solid indeed. I think this will go back and forth, it will be close and i'll probably look to trade and green out. Best game of the weekend, and a great entree to the National Championship game - roll tide!!!

What a great weekend of football.


People can rightly crib the Texans on recent form, no they are not a monster, the same way that Atlanta never were, but this Bengal team is not good, they're only in because the Steelers were an utter shambles for the last month of the season, this poor team has limped in behind another team with no chance of winning the SB. I think at home in a loud stadium the Texans will just about handle the Bengals, Dalton has yet to show me he's a big game QB, and he's going to have to have a big game here.

I really shouldn't but If I can get -7.0 on Discount Double Check @ home in the post-season, i'll take it. Minny are one dimensional, and similarly to Dalton, CP is going to have the best game of his career. Can he?

I certainly liked the look of anything around -7.0 for the Colts, they have so much mojo working with the whole Chuck Pagano thing and rightly so, I see Balti as a team that will run into Denver/Ne and get whacked out, so why would I really fear them taking the Colts on minus  TD?


Overall the lines look about right to me.

Nothing set in stone at this point for me, more work to be done, I just wish they'd play the early sat games @ 6.00 not 9.30.
By:
db1974
When: 04 Jan 13 11:57
Had a bit of Texans -6.0 at 2.17 with Pinny. I'm comfortable giving up the extra 1.5 pts as 5 is the only number that will completely kill the bet (as compared to taking the -4.5 obviously) and it is a rare enough margin in NFL (< 3% of matches are won by 5 pts exactly)

I think that the Ravens will beat the Colts but I'm not comfortable giving up 7 points so probably just leave that game alone entirely.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 12:48
That makes sense.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 12:50
db - do you have stats for the winning margins?
By:
db1974
When: 04 Jan 13 13:00
Yes, every Regular season game since 2002 and every Playoff Game since 1990. Also has every spread and total as well. It's in Excel Spreadsheet form. If you want it, PM me your email address and I'll send it over to you.

I just filter different columns to find whatever info I'm looking for. I keep meaning to teach myself proper databases but never seem to find the time to get around to it.
By:
db1974
When: 04 Jan 13 13:00
If anyone else wants it then PM me too
By:
d13phe
When: 04 Jan 13 13:06
the bengals gave the texans a close game last year and i think the bengals are a bit better/more experienced than last year and Texans are probably the same.

I am not saying the Bengals win but I wouldnt be surprised if they did.

I am going to back the Colts and Bengals this week as both are form teams playing with lots of confidence against teams that seem to be on their way down.

i agree with the sentiments that the pack are too short.  The vikings are a vastly underrated team and this will be a lot closer than the betting suggests.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 13:38
sent db
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 13:40
d13 - It was 31-10 last year, I asssume you're talking about the playoff game, IIRC it was close for a while then Foster blew them away.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 04 Jan 13 13:40
@db1974, I agree with analysis regarding the Seahawks @ Redskins. My ELO model has this as a virtually spot on pick-em. Seattle slight favs before the home advantage comes into play. I am surprised there is such a discrepancy in the prices. I have Washington as receiving a slightly easier schedule and being in an easier division ranking wise but everything else points to an even match up.

My model also gave Seattle a huge boost for that hammering of San Fransisco which maybe is a bit overdone. Happy to take Washington directly on the win market.

There was a decent article on betting.betfair on the fate of the seeds after the wildcard round which was food for thought.

All the other prices seemed sensible to me. I was trying to make a case for Houston but I just couldn't, I have that match-up priced 1.41 vs. 3.43 but I only play when the prices are 10% different to betfair. Houston ELO has collapsed in recent weeks bad news for my superbowl bet Cry
By:
d13phe
When: 04 Jan 13 14:39
dirk

yes.  I remember watching it thinking it was close.

just looking back the score was 31-10 but i remember Dalton throwing a couple of picks at the wrong time.

it felt a lot closer than the score suggests.
By:
Pattern
When: 04 Jan 13 18:45
The Bengals/Texans is an interesting game for me as well. I think the key determinates of the game is how well the Bengals can stop the Texans running, particularly early in the game and how well Green-Ellis ( or the Bengals runner )does against the Texans. I think if things start going wrong for Texas early their heads will drop. Even with a decent early lead in the game the Bengals will still be a nice price.

Bengals are a moderate side though so its definetly a case of the Texans having already finished their season.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 04 Jan 13 18:47
It did feel like a close game mate for quite a while, then Hou pulled away. I remember it well, had money on Houston, and was irate fir quite a while.
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 13 05:02
Interesting stats db.  And whilst I don't doubt the validity I wonder how many of those playoff games had the wildcard team coming into the game with a better overall record?

However other stats are indeed against seattle, they have not won an away playoff game since 1983 (nine matches I think).

That said I think they manage to find a win this week.
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 13 15:13
Rarely make predictions......only made one this year.......Eagles to beat Redskins Week 16Cry, ah well.

Trading in-play is the way to go for me in the NFL.

But its January, Happy - love this month for lots of reasons NFL play-offs being one of them. So why not.

The stand-out for me is Seahawks 1.73. They are contenders - a very physical, powerful team right now (though I hate Pete Carroll, a complete wally); Redskins are not, still developing. I know they are away but maybe that's why they are priced as high as they are. I've noticed over twenty years, differences tend to be accentuated more so come the play-offs. Expect this to happen here.

Packers to prevail, but I'll be on both offenses when they have the ball, backing a bit, then laying (a bit less hopefully!)

Ravens should have too  much for Colts so I think 1.36 is reasonable value - watch and play for me with no initial plan.

No call on the Bengals@Texans.......initial, but cautious, tendency will be to be opening back on the Bengals with a view to trade.


Good luck all.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 05 Jan 13 15:18
Why is Pete Carroll a wally exactly?
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 05 Jan 13 15:19
Trading in-play is the way to go for me in the NFL.


>>>I think you're right on this though.
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 13 15:57
DirkDiggler 05 Jan 13 15:18 
Why is Pete Carroll a wally exactly?

===========================================
Without going into in's and out's - its more about his ability to lie effortlessly - see USC from a few years back. Also, still does it in conferences (ie. fake punt against the Bills). Who cares they ran a fake punt - just stop being so disingenuous.

Whinges and moans too much when calls/decisions go against him and then all "man-up" when they go for him. Classless on the Golden Tate / Packers call.

Besides I don't like the smug arrogant head on himLaugh

(Seems to be a good coach though).
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 05 Jan 13 16:13
Sounds like basically every coach of every major college program, and probably most of the minor ones. Whinges and moans? Bellichick, Harbaugh x 2? The Hairballs are a disgrace.

If we're talking about cheating, well BB is GOAT at that.


He's a great coach, and no worse than the rest of them.
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Jan 13 20:57
tough game first up.

bengals with the obvious momentum but tough place to win

might be worth watching in play this one.

if the Bengals can stop the run they win imo.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 05 Jan 13 21:00
i agree in play i think, should go back and forth
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Jan 13 21:01
Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer
"@TomPelissero: I'm told #Vikings QB Christian Ponder is dealing with bursitis, may need elbow drained. Still .
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 13 21:04
Already pinned my colours to the mast on first game.  Texans quite strongly for me.  GL all.
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Jan 13 21:06
im finding it hard tbh

home team, out of form on a downslope but probably with the better offense

vs

a young team who have won 7 out of 8 with a tough defense.

really hard to call for me.
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 13 21:08
Same for me in tonights late game, cant find a bet I like
By:
glory hornet
When: 05 Jan 13 21:10
1st game , best bet UNDERS
also take the quad-pot  Cinncy +4.5 & Under 43.5
Happy Wild Card Day
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Jan 13 21:14
swardean

can i ask why your so keen on the texans?
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Jan 13 21:19
JJ Watts dad is a firefighter and it on duty Laugh

that guy is nuts
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 13 21:22
Strangely enough the main reason I like the Texans is that I don't like the Bengals.  Despite some 'bad' results recently I still think they have a decent enough defence and they are not facing a GB or Patriots Offence.  I think Dalton will struggle to put up points.

The current slide of results is a concern but with a playoff spot practically in the bag at half way I am sure they lost sum intensity.

Will be hard to pick it up again but think they will do enough.  Not a massive bet for me but like them enough to have a go.  GL
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 05 Jan 13 21:26
With the movement out to 10 in the Vikings Packers line really starting to look like Joe Webb will be starting.
The line is moving the wrong way!
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 05 Jan 13 21:27
Have a hunch for overs here.

Think this really is a tough game to call, so happy to be on the bengals at the prices.
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