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db1974
19 Dec 12 10:34
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Christmas Bonus time for the bookies this week as I attempt to repair some of the damage done by my 5-13 record over the last 3 weeks, after going 13-5 over the previous 4 weeks. On the bright side, I am able to get a sense of what it's like to be Jay Cutler and Tony Romo in December!

Anyway, 3 bets for me this week, all of which happen to be on the live matches on our screens this weekend

Steelers -4.0 vs Bengals
Tough loss for the Steelers last week where they didn't really play all that well but still managed to hang around long enough only for Big Ben to throw a disastrous INT at the start of OT and the Cowboys got the win at home. The Bengals have a far better record than their play suggests and I just can't see them going to Pittsburgh and doing the business against a Steelers team who couldn't have their backs so far up against the wall at this stage they are nearly part of the paint! You'd have to think that the Steelers are counting themselves lucky that they are still in this competition having lost 4 of the last 5 and I think they will be able to do the business and win the last 2 and scrape into the playoffs. This is effectively playoff football in the AFC North now and there's few better than the Steelers when it comes to the crunch.

Giants -2.5 @ Ravens
Got both these teams badly wrong last week when they both got a hiding in games where the spread was just 3 points. It's all about who can bounce back from a defeat like that and still stay focused with the last 2 weeks of regular season left. I favour the Giants here because they are the type of team who can put in a bad performance one week and just shrug their shoulders and come out all guns blazing the following week while the Ravens just seem to be in a slump at this stage and can't even fall over the finishing line

49ers +1.0 @ Seahawks (line at Bet265)
Eh ... what! Game of the Week undoubtedly but I would have expected this to be the line before we saw the 49ers travel to Boston and beat the Patriots, despite getting an almighty scare in the last 20 minutes. This was a massively impressive performance and one which rightly shot them to the head of the Superbowl market. The Seahawks are a formidable team at home but the last 2 weeks have flattered them a little, with huge victories over the Cardinals and Bills. Things won't be as easy this week and I am more impressed with the 49ers wins on the road against the Packers, Saints, & Patriots than I am with the Seahawks home record.


Incidently, the League must have breathed a huge sigh of relief after the 49ers beat the Patriots last week and all but ensured that the Seahawks won't win the NFC West. There was a very possible scenario brewing whereby if the Seahawks won the West and tied with the Packers on 11-5, then the Seahawks would have gotten the No.2 seed ahead of the Packers by virtue of their controversial victory in Week 3.

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By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Dec 12 10:53
How are the Steelers going to stop AJ Green with their banged up secondary? At one point in Dallas they were on their 6th choice cornerback. AJ Green could have a field day
By:
db1974
When: 19 Dec 12 11:14
Ah they'll find a way. This is Steeler football!
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Dec 12 11:53
Hoping they will is not a key to successful betting. HTH
By:
db1974
When: 19 Dec 12 12:12
I don't like to get bogged down in the minutae of each game as I think you can read too much into certain things that then tend not to influence the match to the same extent that you think they will.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Dec 12 18:43
But the problem with the Steelers on Sunday was they struggled to stop the Cowboys moving the chains because of their banged up secondary. Romo killed them using the outside route. And Dalton and AJ Green more than capable of exploiting that
By:
Swagger
When: 19 Dec 12 21:03
On a side note can anyone explain to me the 2 performances of the 49ers against the Rams this season? (that's a serious question as it's what put me off piling into them for the SB as thought they were immense against the Bears even before the Patriots match). The Steelers have to win otherwise no play offs so simply for that reason i would favour them to overcome the Bengals and although I agree Clay the way Romo cut them to pieces last week was worrying, it's not hope just a gut feeling that the Steelers will find a way to step up and win so agree with db on the eventual outcome.
By:
grayhawk
When: 19 Dec 12 22:10
According to the Racing Post yesterday they had the 49ers getting 2.5 on the Vegas line Shocked.....dunno if it was true or not but most books now have Seattle getting a point.
By:
db1974
When: 19 Dec 12 22:27
They opened at +2.5 in one bookmakers (The Greek) before the Patriots game started. Wouldn't think it lasted long

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/offshore/line-movement/49ers-@-seahawks.cfm/date/12-23-12/time/2030

49ers 1pt favs now everywhere I think
By:
The Businessman
When: 19 Dec 12 23:51
Cortez Allen, the Steelers' third-choice cornerback, will return for the Bengals game in place of Josh Victorian, leaving Keenan Lewis to face A.J. Green. Whilst Lewis has improved no end this season, it is a big ask for the Steelers to neutralise Green without Ike Taylor. I would expect Rashard Mendenhall to have his fair share of carries this week as well, if not to start the game.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Dec 12 00:41
Hello The Businessman. What do you think of the current shape up to the Superbowl - who do you fancy?
By:
The Businessman
When: 20 Dec 12 08:53
Hi Swagger. I have had no bets on the Superbowl outcome but, for what it's worth, I see either the 49ers and the Packers representing the N.F.C. and the Broncos and Patriots battling it out for the A.F.C. crown.
I feel the 49ers have the best D in the league (irrespective of the statistics pointing towards the Steelers) and the Packers have, in Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterback in the N.F.L. (in my opinion).
The last nine representatives of the A.F.C. have been led by a Brady, a Manning or a Roethlisberger. I don't foresee this changing this year. If my beloved Steelers do make it to the play-offs (and the way they are currently playing, that is a BIG if), they are unlikely to make it past the Patriots at Foxboro (looking at current standings). By process of elimination that just leaves the Broncos and Patriots!
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Dec 12 10:14
Thanks The Businessman. I haven't been following NFL for that long so wasn't sure how the play off schedule worked until i looked properly last night and agree with the 4 teams you mention. It looks likely the Steelers would have to face the Patriots first up which as you say is probably the worst fixture they could face. I now understand why people think it's going to be a 49ers v Patriots Superbowl. But I think the potential red herrings here are the Giants, if they were to be scheduled against the 49ers first up in the play offs then they could suddenly show up for a game and turn them over which would open up the N.F.C., equally if they were to square up against the Packers. That was a massive win for the 49ers last week as it has potentially screwed over the Steelers as I think most people would have given them a genuine shot at turning over Denver but the Patriots have looked formidable at times this season.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Dec 12 10:23
For week 16 i've done a little treble which pays 6/1
Panthers (-7.5 points) -v- Raiders. I've liked the Panthers this season and think will continue their recent strong run of form and look to build for a play off birth next season.
Packers (-13 points) -v- T Titans. Even if the Packers rest a load of players this is the first time in months the pressure is completely off them, they will enjoy this game, look to progress their running game and i can see Rogers having a field day.
Falcans (-3.5 points) -v- Detriot Lions. Similar to the Packers game, even if the Falcons rest a load of players I still think the players will be looking to impress ahead of the play offs and in reality they should take care of the Lions who were shocking last week. But NFL can be unpredictable and of the 3 selections this looks the most solid on paper so will probably be the one to randomly let me down!
By:
d13phe
When: 20 Dec 12 10:28
big lesson learnt from last week

this week i will not be touching any teams with nothing to play for.
By:
Swagger
When: 20 Dec 12 10:55
I agree with that d13. I might be silly putting the above 3 in a treble as i suppose none of them need to win but I think winning going into the play offs and carrying the momentum is a big factor so don't see the Falcons or Packers letting up but could be wrong. I just think the Panthers really want to finish off the season on a nice winning run of form to go into next season with a genuine push for the play offs. I backed the Lions last week who effectively had nothing to play for and were horrific so i understand where you are coming from.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 20 Dec 12 15:33
Ah they'll find a way. This is Steeler football!


>>>This isn't Steelers football, this team is seriously flawed and completely stupid. Worst Steeler team in years.
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Dec 12 16:02
Swagger...no chance of the Packers resting players,McCarthy is all out for the No2 seed and a bye.
By:
The Businessman
When: 20 Dec 12 16:41
For me, the worst aspect about being a Steelers fan this season is that it is ineptitude rather than inability that has cost this team victories this season. They are a mentally weak bunch of players that have developed a nasty habit of throwing away games due to unforced errors. Good team performances (such as those versus the Bengals, the Redskins and the Giants) have been overshadowed by the defeats to the Raiders, the Titans and the Cowboys and the abysmal performances against the Browns (offensively at least) and the Chargers. It is only due to the fact that the A.F.C. is such a weak conference that the Steelers have a chance of claiming the final wild-card spot.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 20 Dec 12 17:38
They were lucky to beat Kansas. They have played well four times this season, add in beating the Jets with ease, as a good showing. The rest has been awful. No pass rush, no run game and the young WR's have been very poor this year, Heath Miller has been awesome, other than that - garbage. The offense to me looks like it did under Arians, so predictable. I swear they've only got 5-6 running plays, and they're all slow developing.

They've had a ton of injuries, but even still ought to be 10-4 ish, but they're too stupid and lazy, far too many times they come out flat - SD a prime example.
By:
orioles
When: 20 Dec 12 20:41
I've got no money left Plain
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 12:34
if the Seahawks beat the Niners, who is in pole position in the Division? Can the Niners lose and still be in pole position?
By:
mr_sykes
When: 22 Dec 12 12:44
yeah 9ers can lose and still be alright but they'll want to win to hold on the #2 seed and not have to go to Lambeau in the divisional round
By:
orioles
When: 22 Dec 12 15:25
http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture
By:
Swardean
When: 22 Dec 12 16:08
I very confidently expect Seattle to beat the 49ers on Sunday.  I am am unanimous in that view.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 22 Dec 12 16:16
the game in those conditions in NE must have taken a toll
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 22 Dec 12 16:58
More ramblings .... very trappy week no mistake about it and the handicaps look spot on in most cases.

Bears -5.5 @ Arizona Cardinals.... the Bears are teetering under the pressure but should be given an armchair ride once they have shown the will to win in the first quarter.

49ers even @ Seattle....  game of the week.... are the 49ers getting used to this new offence?.... even money they are... another OT game?

San Diego +2.5 @ Jets.... Chargers are playing for their jobs here - I think the Jets have already lost theirsGrin

Colts -6.5 @ Chiefs.... this could be tighter thans 6.5 but I am hoping the Chiefs capitulate, lets face it the offence is as bad as it gets. bet of the weekDevil
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 17:00
Anyone else fancy the Saints at Dallas? I do
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 17:02
The Seahawks are the most overrated team going. Even the finns beat them Cool
By:
Swardean
When: 22 Dec 12 17:44
You must be skint backing against them this year clayWink
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 17:48
no
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 17:49
Justin Smith doubtful against Seahawks. I think the Niners struggled when he got injured last week
By:
Swardean
When: 22 Dec 12 17:56
Serious, seattle struggled on the road earlier in the season but with a rookie QB it was always going to take some time to click.  Different proposition at home and on the back of the recent run I wouldnt back against them at the moment.

Also the top team this year in "against the spread" stats.

Should be a cracking game in what the seattle fans see as their biggest game of the season. (since the divisional switches)
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 17:58
Lets look at the home form and the game against Green Bay? yeah exactly. Let's put that one down as a defeat shall we? And Green Bay weren't playing that well at the time as well
By:
Swardean
When: 22 Dec 12 23:06
Can't believe the falcons v Lions game is not being shown live tonight on TV.

Interesting game.  Think Lions will be the spoilers here and with Atlanta not wanting to risk any injuries the +3.5 looks ok to me.
By:
grrrrrowl
When: 23 Dec 12 00:04
I thought it was on bbc red button?
By:
healingmylegalhealingmyheart
When: 23 Dec 12 00:14
its on bbc red button
By:
Swardean
When: 23 Dec 12 00:15
No mention on the bbc website grrrrrrrowl
By:
Swardean
When: 23 Dec 12 00:16
I stand corrected healing good news if it is
By:
inner city sumo
When: 23 Dec 12 00:28
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/20669335

It's listed as on the red button.
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