HOW THE HELL........

Back em then!

does anyone with real understanding know hoe this is possible - by all accounts for all 6 results to do your way in this league it should not be priced up @

balt - 1/4
steelers 9/2
bengals 20/1

its not that simple isit sir...... very rarely the bookies get it wrong - meaning the nfl website has got it wrong - i have gone over the results workings out again & again & the only way balt dnt win the div is they lose all 3 of their remaining games & 1 of cinci or pittsb win their remsining 3! as they play e.other in week 16 so 1 of them will lose 1!

they have a 2 game lead and a better divisional record, 4-1 as opposed to pitts 2-2 and the bengals 1-3, pitts have to play the bengals also so both those teams cannot win out, one win for the ravens would prob be good enough, but!!!!!

but.........

but............................................................................ they win one

*can*

haha - if thats the question fine....! the market suggests the steelers only need to gain 2 games on them tho & not 3!
work it out for yourself - the odds of balt losing all 3 of their remaining games say they are roughly 1.7, (vs den) 2, (vs giants) 1.8 (@ bengals)& the steelers are 1.8,(@dallas) 1.4,(vs bengals) 1.25(vs browns) - it would suggest that acca is around 18/1

it just doesn't add up does it!!!!!

ok, say baltimore n pittsburgh both finish level, either 9-7 or 10-6 and there divisional record is both 4-2, does it then not go to head to head (tied at1-1) and then conference record,
currently baltimore 8-2, pitts 4-6...

correct apart from before the conference record its mutual games played which at the moment steelers are 4-3 with dallas to come - balt are 4-2 with giants & denver to come. if both finish tied in that then it will go to conference record yes! as if balt win 1 of their nxt 3 they will either hav a 5-1 div record (which pitts cant match) or 5-3 in the mutual games (which pitts can only tie) as u mention the conference record clearly belongs to the ravens - which brings us back to the same point if balt win 1 more game / pitts lose 1 more game its all over!!!!!! i've look at this time & time again & keep coming up with the same answer!!!!

which brings me back to the same point..... either all the american journalists are wrong - or our english bookies are providing us with the wrong prices!!!!!

I reckon I have more interest in the ravens winning this division than most on here...Come on fellas it is not rocket science...because they all lost at the weekend it is simple now...1 WIN= AFC NORTH title.

Yeah I can't see how the Ravens lose the division if they win just one more game

If they beat Broncos or Giants and lose the other 2 then they finish 10-6. If they tie with Steelers on 10-6 then they win the division on Conference record. If they tie with Bengals on 10-6 then they win the division on Divisional record

If they beat the Bengals and lose the other 2, they again finish 10-6. If they tie with the Steelers then they win the division on Divisional record. They can't tie with the Bengals on 10-6 if they beat them.

However, a Steelers loss would NOT be enough to give the division to the Ravens. If the Steelers lose to the Browns or Cowboys but win the other 2 and if the 3 teams finished on 9-7 then the Steelers would win the division because they would have a better record in the games between the 3 teams who are tied because they would have 3 wins but the Ravens and Bengals would only have 2 wins each.

If you take into account the last paragraph of db1974 above and work out the anticipated treble odds for Ravens to lose out & finally look at it from a bookmaker perspective then the 1.25 makes a lot more sense than first appears....

We all know what needs to happen now tbh and that isn't the issue but to calculate the most accurate divisional odds is mostly about predicting Ravens odds to lose out , although it's subjective and all about opinion depending on a set of circumstances for me the estimated odds would be 1.7 ( Denver ) x 1.7 ( Giants ) x 1.5 ( Bengals ) which equates to 10/3 making Ravens 1.30 to win the division before factoring in the results from the other 2 teams , the 1.7 Giants & 1.5 Bengals may look woefully short but if that happens Ravens will be on a 3 & 4 losing streak and looking unable to buy a win as opposed to opponents fighting for their lives.

The factoring in of the other 2 teams obviously takes the price down below the 1.3 to probably sub 1.2 but bearing in mind the other 2 play each other & you've already assumed Bengals have won their final game to arrive at the 1.3 then the influence isn't as big as at first glance.

Finally look at the situation from a bookmaker perspective , i've spoken to a few trading directors with decent Steeler red books and are only too happy to lay some overpriced Ravens at over 1.2 to balance the books , seemingly Steelers are a far more appealing name to the average punter and consequently are the most popular multi selection from that division by some distance.


Taking all the above into account the 1.25 is generous from a mathematical perspective but certainly not as overpriced as it initially seemed given that you'll be supporting a team on a 2 losing streak against 2 better teams over the next 2 games and if it went to the final week you'd probably be in big trouble.


Not for me but lets hope it's resolved this weekend for those involved , good luck Harry   

cheers Hayden.....ONE win is all it takes

db1974 12 Dec 12 01:13 Joined: 08 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 3,932 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Yeah I can't see how the Ravens lose the division if they win just one more game

You cant see it because it cant happen   last weeks results made it easier in a way...think their were a few different scenarios but with all losing it was straight down to conference record

bengals have a nightmare really...how do they beat the steelers and the ravens?

It's an enormous task for sure Harry , they'll obviously believe they can win out & from the Ravens perspective if it's still in the melting pot going into the final week it'll mean they're on a 4 losing streak.


My gut feeling is that it'll be all over this weekend & we'll be left wondering what all the fuss was about 

Yes agree...I think this is a sport where we like to complicate and work out the strangest scenarios just incase....NHL going to be sorted out?

Impossible to predict at the moment , there has to be a minimum of 48 games to constitute a season taking place so that gives them around 4 weeks to resolve the outstanding issues , if not the season will be cancelled.

There's some quality KHL taking place though with plenty of NHL stars on temporary contracts but we'll just have to wait & see i guess.

I hear their is a big meeting taking place today to discuss it...I guess you have every part of your body crossed they get something resolved....I do also...I wait for the go ahead for the 40/1+ tip posted to me

What's all this about a 40/1 tip??????????????

db keep your nose out   I am first in line for the NHL tip once hayden has filled his boots

previous to winning the NHL title last year dominating the finals hayden spoke highly of this young team in 2010 I think...I just forgot about it once it started...then came in at 40/1..out resident NHL maestro pulled out a pearl...I recall another fella liking them also but cant recall his name.

MR BLONDE 18 Dec 12 19:49 Joined: 04 Dec 08 | Topic/replies: 116 | Blogger: MR BLONDE's blog
balt have to win one of their last 2 games to play indi - which aint gonna happen

  BOOM..you have been mouthing off all week...what do you have to say now mr blonde

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