NFL Week 12

i fancy the Jets to beat the Pats

i think Gronk is huge for the Pats and they will struggle without him

the whole system is based on around tight ends, and they dont have any now

Could be interesting, agree he is as important to Pats as TG is to Atlanta.  Short, sharp passing always been the Patriots way.  Also nothing wrong with the Jets defence.  Even so, Pats will put up a minimum of 21 points?  Can the jets offence match that?

Spread is interesting if you can nick it somewhere at +7.

here comes the cavalry lads........... the pats have been paying his wages since june.

Biography
CAREER TRANSACTIONS
Visanthe Shiancoe was signed by the New England Patriots as a free agent on July 25, 2012 … Originally drafted by the New York Giants in the third round (91st overall) of the 2003 NFL Draft … Signed by Minnesota as an unrestricted free agent from the New York Giants (3/3/07).
CAREER HIGHLIGHTS
•Played in 144 consecutive games since entering the league in 2003 through 2011.
•Set a Vikings tight end record with 11 touchdown catches in 2009.
SEASONAL REVIEWS
2012 (1/0)
•Appeared as a reserve in his first game with the Patriots vs. Buffalo (11/11).
•Activated from Injured Reserve with designation to return on Nov. 10, 2012.

Shiancoe isnt in the same league as either Hernandez or the Gronk.

I think he had a case of the dropsies in his last couple of years with the Vikes which is why they released him.  that and Rudolph is much better.

Initial ramblings....

I kind of agree it's make or break for the Jets and +7 looks ok - but I cannot bring myself to do it.... the Dallas / Washington game is on thanksgiving, heck just put two number together it could be anything. Detroit it's all or nothing for them too so that one is also tight - I fancy Houston and if they score early they will beat the spread.

Kansas City at home (under 44 and +11.5) versus Denver. Divisional matchup.

Tampa to beat the Atlanta Falcons at home in that divisional matchup (slugfest - over 48.5)

Seattle -2.5 at a weakening Miami looks like the bet of the week.

Colts with -3 should be too good for the Bills at home. Next best bet.


My 'superbowl winners' page went green today.

Redskins +3.0 @ Cowboys - as Ming says, the spread here could be anything as these teams are so inconsistent. If the Cowboys were getting the points they would be worth a bet. The NFC East always seems to throw up close matches or weird results in divisional match-ups. In NFC East divisional games over the last 5 years, Road Dogs have a 27-12-1 ATS record which is crazy. This season so far the record is 2-1-1. The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS as Home Favs against NFC East rivals in that same period

As a comparison, the Road Dog record for the last 5 full seasons for each division is

AFC East: 23-14-1 (Teams travelling to Jets as underdogs make up 8-2-1 of that)
AFC North: 21-12-2 (Steelers/Ravens makes up 6-2-1 of that)
AFC South: 17-18-1
AFC West: 30-9-0 (incredibly the Chargers have 7 of those 9 covers!)
NFC North: 15-21-2
NFC South: 18-22-0
NFC West: 12-23-0

Don't know if those figures mean that much TBH but games like tomorrows are probably worth a second look anyway based on them

I took the Redskins +3.5 @ 10/11 with Coral

Looks like I'm out on my own this week, I fancy all three jollies to cover.
Texans -3
Cowboys -3
Pats -6.5

I fancy the first 2 games to be shootouts and like the overs in both

Biggest certainty this week is UNDERS in the Pats game , the Jets can protect the pass but are hopeless against the run so watch the pats use Vereen and Ridley quite often , which is never good for OVERS backers , the Jets are not exactly a free flowing scoring outfit either so look to unders in this match.

Houston will whip Detroit and how the Redskins are not favourites against the awful Romo led Cowboys i don't know.

Just the three thurs games.

Does anyone know the current quarterback situation for the Steelers, as in who is going to start their next match? I thought they were pretty immense against the Ravens without Big Ben and if they have an injury free quarterback who can make regulation plays I think they will beat the Browns cosily. I was expecting the spread to be something like -4.5 Steelers but it looks to be a lot shorter in which case they would be an outright win bet for me.

I randomly fancy the Bills to win against the Colts and 6/4 looks a fair price. I also like the Vikings to compound more misery on the Bears and will back them outright if 2/1 or bigger. I also fancy the Texans to beat Detriot and cover the spread.

Good luck with your bets

Swagger, Charlie Batch will start against the Browns on Sunday. Brian Hoyer (previously No. 2 to Brady at the Patriots) has just signed as back-up. And if both of those are injured, Heath Miller is this week's No. 3 quarterback!

Jerricho Cotchery has been ruled out due to a couple of cracked ribs, which has necessitated the signing of Plaxico Burress. It will be interesting to see if Burress is still around when Big Ben returns, because Roethlisberger has mentioned on numerous occasions his wish for a tall receiver for Red Zone possessions.

You are a fountain of information The Businessman, much obliged Sir. Is Charlie Batch competent enough to make regulation plays in peoples opinion?

batch was average to poor, but solid enough. ie not making dumb throws. unlikely theyll allow him to do much cept short throws. probably suits the steelers better than leftwich.

Swagger, I would go as far as to say that this season's offence suits Charlie Batch more than Byron Leftwich. Todd Haley's offence is more dependent upon dink-and-dunk (i.e. short passes and bubble screens) which suits Batch, since he has very little strength in his throws these days (well, he is nearly 38!). Last season's offence (under Bruce Arians) would have suited Leftwich (and his arm strength) more, because they were more inclined to attempt long passes. As such, the contrast in Mike Wallace's Yards-Per-Catch numbers this season compared to last's is startling (although Antonio Brown's breakthrough does account for some of the drop-off).

i am tempted by all three outsiders tonight and I think you can make good cases for all particularly as they are at home.

Lions - they arent playing too bad and took a better team (the packers) all the way.  the Texans got burnt by Chad Henne and they are starting to be exposed on the D.  Stafford to Megatron the key and the Lions cant let the Texans get up early or they will be toast against foster chasing the game. 

Redskins - don't trust Romo (simple as that ) and the two running backs are banged up.  The Cowboys D is very good but RG3 can find ways of moving the ball and they are at home. 

Jets - Gronk missing and the Jets D is starting to turn up.  Sanchez isn't great but he moved the ball the other day and against the Pats at Foxboro.  then again who cant move the ball against the Pats.

Charlie was OK last year when the Steelers won 3 of their first 4 games without Roethlisberger, the only defeat being to the Ravens I think

New system now though with Haley as the OC

Powers have another offer tonight:

If there is a touchdown scored in the final 2 minutes of regular time, we will refund losing total points bets on the game as a free bet on NFL. - free bet to be used on this weekend's games ONLY

It's not the best TBH (must have got fleeced last week with 2 of their MBS coming in) but if you having a bet on the points then it's worth it probably. Also with the first game looking like a shoot-out and the other 2 looking like they could be close, I reckon at least one of them will come in anyway.

Texans @ Lions: > 50.0pts
Redskins @ Cowboys: < 48.0pts
Patriots @ Jets: < 48.5pts

Only bets for me today, Edelman and Dez Bryant, anytime TDs at 2.88 & Evs.

GL

Don't know if I'm reading your last post correctly, D13phe, but it's the Cowboys who are at home tonight not the Skins.

Antonio Brown and Troy Polomalu are back in training this week and Ben Roethlisberger is no longer wearing his sling and is in much better condition. So, whilst the Cleveland game will probably be too soon for them, I wouldn't be surprised to see all three suit up for the trip to Baltimore in Week 13.

Suit up Ted! sorry....

Anyway just going to have a look see and i'll post my findings, managed an 80% + strike rate in my massive 'I would bet if I had alot of cash hyperthetical choices" picks last week although in all fairness it was quite straight forward..

Right well iv'e had a look at tonights 3 match ups and it's alot harder than last week to pick em so far! Might just this week a miss!!

HOUSTON -3
NEW ENGLAND -6.5
DALLAS/WASH UNDER 47.5

If I HAD to choose 2 bets in each match up this Thursday i'd probably go for:

Dallas -3 / Under 47.5
NYJ +6.5 / Under 48.5
Houston -3 / Under 48.5

Romo isn't the best in my eyes however I expect him to step up tonight and although their running game isn't going well I think they might have a chance keeping the roll going, in all honesty tho I would have thought Dallas would have been slightly higher and wouldn't be suprised if Washington beat the +3 spread at least however I do like the Under 47.5 points more.

Now now now, as many people have said above the unders in the NY NE match looks decent with Gronk missing and the Jets stepping up. Probably tho the least easy pick would be who wins? Jets came close at NE but they both have strange results. Jets either lose big and as well as NE win big howver I do sense an upset tonight but not enough for NY so +6.5 (if they turn up to play).

Houston didn't play well against the Jags last week Defensive wise but Shalllooobaaabaambambooo had a mega game and with the slow Foster performance (for his standards) he really picked up the batton. For this i'd say they have a good chance against the Lions who really have had to rely on the Megatron in the past few games. Unders at 48.5 looks decent as on the road they havn't been as free flowing.

Be wanred will prboably end up 0/6 but lets see if it can be close to 4/6 as a mini challenge!

Why do the books insist on going in-play when the match hasn't even kicked off yet FFS

Think this is the first week iv'e actually gone against a few of your choices DB....which is probably be a big mistake as you've been doing rather well! You finding these 3 matches a bit harder than the past few weeks?

Thanks very much Super Tri. Yeah tough matches tonight. Redskins +3.5 my only bet for today

See thats the tricky one for me as i would have thought the way Washington are playing that would be a given, especially as Dallas are the team that is so.....frustrating would be the word!! But something tells me that the day it being and Dallas apparently being the team of a nation, add to that Washingtons not stellla up record against Dallas, alothugh your stats above say otherwise, could end up anything really! all the best with the bet tho, it's going to be an intresting match up!

Both landed, kerching!

Week 12 Part II

Here's what I like for Sunday

Colts -3.0 vs Bills - very popular pick this week which isn't necessarily a good sign. However on all known form the Colts are a genuine Playoff team (that's about it though) while the Bills are perennial underachievers. Andrew Luck and the Colts were taught a bit of a lesson last week in Boston but I full expect them to bounce back at home to the Bills, who beat a Dolphins team on the downward slope after a 3-game winning streak proved to be a false dawn for them.

Falcons -1.0 @ Buccaneers - the Bucs have been underestimated over the last couple of weeks but I think the needle has swung a bit to far in the opposite direction here. The way these teams have been playing this game is going to be close and the Falcons have become quite good at winning games which are close and ugly. I can see this coning down to the last drive but I reckon the Falcons should have too much for their divisional rivals.

Steelers SU @ Browns - no Big Ben and no Byron Leftwich means that 3rd-string QB Charlie Batch gets the nod here against the Browns with former Patriot Brian Hoyer as backup. Usually a 3rd-string QB would spell disaster for any team but for team like the Steelers whose defence is getting back to something like we are used to seeing (average of just 15pts conceded over the last 5 games, which includes games against the Giants and Redskins), it should still be enough to stop a team like the Browns who seem to play tough but can't close out any games. I just can't see the Browns scoring enough points to win this. Steelers by a FG for me.

Cardinals -1.0 vs Rams - Cardinals coming off a 6-game losing streak while the Rams are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Jets having been expected to build on the momentum gained from their big performance against the 49ers the week previous. Cardinals are a funny team this year, having lost 2 of the 3 games where they were favourites and won 2 of the 3 home games where they were the underdog. I just think the Cardinals will ultimately have too much for the Rams. Another tight game with prob just a FG in it so you have to go with the home side here I feel.

I have gone with the Falcons, Steelers and Cardinals basically for the same reasoning as db1974 but i think i'm the only one on this thread who fancies the Bills and backed them at 6/4 earlier in the week. Just thought that although they were flattered that they actually played well against the Patriots whereas the Colts got battered. Interesting to see how the Colts will react this week from that loss and the pressure is on them whereas I think the Bills can continue to build for next season and I take the view that freedom will see them do enough to win.

I've also backed the Titans on the spread.

Some good matches yesterday. I was really impressed with the Patriots, their running game was immense. Texans found a way to win fair play to them and I now understand what people mean about Dallas

Good luck with your bets.

I have gone with the Falcons, Steelers and Cardinals basically for the same reasoning as db1974 but i think i'm the only one on this thread who fancies the Bills and backed them at 6/4 earlier in the week. Just thought that although they were flattered that they actually played well against the Patriots whereas the Colts got battered. Interesting to see how the Colts will react this week from that loss and the pressure is on them whereas I think the Bills can continue to build for next season and I take the view that freedom will see them do enough to win.

I've also backed the Titans on the spread.

Some good matches yesterday. I was really impressed with the Patriots, their running game was immense. Texans found a way to win fair play to them and I now understand what people mean about Dallas

Good luck with your bets.

Picks this week
Colts-3
Tenn-Jags Over

Good luck

Some decent prices this week imo

Packers look a big price, although Clay Matthews is out.

vikings are huge - I dont care if Cutler is back, they arent very good and if the Vikes can take care of the football they will win with ease.

Dolhpins.  Seahawks not very good away, simples

Steelers and Browns - never seen a game that looks like it will struggle to get to 20 points but this game does

falcons and buccs should be an interesting game as well

two explosive offenses and the Buccs are the form team

no bet for me in this one but one to watch

Cant be having the dolphins against this superb D

Agre Harry Hawks on  the hcp for me

Saints to beat 49ers my bet of the weekend.  And San Francisco 7/1 for the Superbowl ridiculous imo. Lay.

s.diego beats balt-who have pits on deck
tennessee wins after bye
arizona take care of rams at home
atl to good for bucs
giants win after rest
n.orleans can beat 49ers.

seattle indy cincy denver acca   gl

Bills/Steelers unders

Vikings, Dolphins double

nightmare week for me so far

all the teams i want to win have lost for my SB book and all the times I am opposing win

all my divisional bets have gone to plan today...wanted seattle to win but have the niners in the division with denver atlanta and baltimore in all kind of divisions doubles and trebles so a good week so far...kind of give up on steelers superbowl hopes when ben was injured

I better lump on the Giants tonight then d13phe

How great is Ray Rice! Ravens trailing 13 to 10 with less than 2mins on the clock and it's 4th and 29 on their own 34 yard line. Flacco pops it to Rice who spreadeagles the field on, after much humming and hawing from the officials is eventually ruled gain of 30 yards for 1st down

And Tucker nails the FG. We have OT in San Diego

Tucker knocks over another FG for the win. Rices 4th down run will go down as one of the plays of the year

was never a first down unfortunately. Zebras win (lose) again.