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db1974
06 Nov 12 23:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
A few early lines stand out for me

Colts -3.0 @ Jaguars
This is a different Colts team to the one beaten by the Jags in week 3, with 4 wins from their last 5 and Andrew Luck looking more-and-more like the real deal as each week passes. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are IMO one of the two worst teams this season (tied with the Chiefs) and have lost 5 on the bounce since that win in week 3. It is priced up accordingly however with the Colts at 4/5 as opposed to the traditional 10/11. The line won't move from 3 points either but the price may actually get worse than 4/5 (Coral are 10/11 but for a 3.5pt spread)

Bills +11.0 @ Patriots & Rams +11.0 @ 49ers
Both these games fall into a "system" which I like, which is to back the underdog with the points in a divisional matchup where the spread is 10+ points. I don't have the figures to-hand (I'll post it up tomorrow if I remember) but I think the Dog is something like 65% covering these spreads over the last 5 years. I will admit that it goes against the grain to go with teams like the Bills and Rams travelling to powerhouses like the Pats and Niners but you have to take a long-term view of these things sometimes

Buccaneers -3.0 vs Chargers
Bucs again are underestimated by Vegas this week, although their tendency to concede points is a bit worrying. Both teams are 4-4 but the Chargers have only won 2 of their last 6, both of which were against the hapless Chiefs. As with the Colts/Jags 3pt spread though the price is again in the 4/5 - 5/6 range

Saints +1.0 vs Falcons
I am firmly in the "not-quite-convinced-by-the-undefeated-Falcons-yet" camp so this pick is based on that conviction obviously. While I admit that the Falcons have beaten everything put in front of them so far, some of those wins have been unconvincing. If they win this with an impressive performance I think they will go outright favourites for the big one on Monday morning.
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Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
PRESSURE!!!
Report Charlesaf November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
You have to be ****g kidding me
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
wow...this is a crazy game
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
LOOOL
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
missed it?
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
the missed kicks continue
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
hahhahahahaa
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
classic!!
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
6 field goals missed this year Shocked
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
this rams kicker could make it from here Laugh
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
bottled it clean!
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
the rams kicker missed a couple of short ones
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
tempted to go in again on Rams. It must be destiny, surely?
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:54 AM GMT
he has yes but he has a big leg at least
Report caramba November 12, 2012 12:54 AM GMT
This game better not end in a tie so bets are voided.
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:54 AM GMT
they cant make a down now ffs
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
My leg feels like jelly just watching.  I would never make a kicker
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
gtfi
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
big 3rd down
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
Amendola has been clutch in this game
Report incaseof November 12, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
Welker Jr
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
pen puts them out of range
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:58 AM GMT
niners all over that play..loss of yards
Report caramba November 12, 2012 12:58 AM GMT
Please make this FG!
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
no chance
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
unbelievable
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
wow delay of game..he made it as well Shocked
Report caramba November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
CryAngry
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
Are the Rams the most inept team in the League.

FFS
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
jesus c
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
just need it on target..distance no prob
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
he had it easy though
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
unreal redzone gone CryCry
Report TheVis November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
lol at coverage going just as he is about to have the second attempt Laugh
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
****g pictures gone
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
idiots
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
FECK
Report dlarssonf November 12, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
what a game
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:01 AM GMT
missed right
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:01 AM GMT
missed
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:01 AM GMT
NFL Network showing Heidi?
Report incaseof November 12, 2012 1:01 AM GMT
the delay of game was harsh
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:02 AM GMT
db who do you reckon on next weeks last man standing Grin  made it through another week
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:02 AM GMT
recalled 80 yarder; delay of game; rams will be fuming
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:02 AM GMT
reckon the 49ers wouldnt mind a tie tbh
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
Harry, I'll have to ask my 7yo in the morning. He's in round 3 and I have gone out in round 1 the last 2 weeks!
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
I can't believe good profit for 3,5 hrs work could be gone here (in case of tie).
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
Laugh was down to 500 this week and got lucky with man united but newcastle and arsenal would have been popular picks this week
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
4th down SF
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
sack
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
BIG!!
Report incaseof November 12, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
fecking tie DevilDevil
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
rams start on 14
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
AngryAngry
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:07 AM GMT
rams cant get too cute here
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:07 AM GMT
The rams will surely go for a huge play...niners will be waiting and they will run it back to the house Grin
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:07 AM GMT
I think they will d13..what good is a tie for them?
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:08 AM GMT
HUGE CALL!!
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:08 AM GMT
1st down rams
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:10 AM GMT
fcking amateurs.
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:11 AM GMT
odds are funny, but understandable because of rules.
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:11 AM GMT
rams in position to win now? no pics
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:11 AM GMT
Tied
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:11 AM GMT
60 yards!!
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
are all bets voided if tie
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
FG attempt incoming
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
they can go for hailmary and then get fg attempt
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
San Fran 1st and goal on STL 30
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
no its not db
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
game over = tied
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
I think ESPN mobile got that one wrong!
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
CryCry
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
sheight ending.
Report incaseof November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
Feck it, tie DevilDevilDevil
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
Rams blew that one today
Report GoBallistic November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
Would have been one of my best results of the season - only hedged about 20% on the tie (at silly prices) Cry
Report d13phe November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
so all bets voided?
Report Triple Fault November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
betfair are seething... all that commission...
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
I want my 3,5 hrs back, since BF took my profits back.
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
Are Hcp bets void as well? Surely not.
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:15 AM GMT
bets void
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:15 AM GMT
Massive anti climax.... confusion and mistakes by officials to boot. pathetic.
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:15 AM GMT
handicap bet stands.

void on outright markets on b/f.

Bookmakers tied runs apply on M/L.

I think
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:16 AM GMT
bears game not far away from kick off
Report ArmchairIdiot November 12, 2012 1:16 AM GMT
go bears. go...
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:17 AM GMT
niners will take that...they were poor
Report Swardean November 12, 2012 1:17 AM GMT
yes harry, let of fro them.

Very well done on the picks DB
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:18 AM GMT
ahh yes 4/4..nice work db..shame about the last man standing pick Grin
Report db1974 November 12, 2012 1:20 AM GMT
Thanks - good couple of weeks alright

Pinnacle have paid out on Rams anyway so presumably Moneyline only is a tie

Harry, I'd say a good few went down this week in LMS. If Spurs had held on it would have been a massacre
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:25 AM GMT
I know..i was hoping they went out as well...also everton came back late...I used united this week and went with a nice pick 2 weeks ago with norwich home to stoke and a lot went down in week 1 with spurs losing to wigan
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:25 AM GMT
only 18th tie in 38 years.
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:26 AM GMT
the packers shut down this texans team in houston...what are the bears going to do Shocked
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:28 AM GMT
Looking at everton next week at reading
Report SuperTri November 12, 2012 1:29 AM GMT
This is a tasty game but what looks good? so many ideas...
Report incaseof November 12, 2012 1:29 AM GMT
I'm going to back tie Cry
Report SuperTri November 12, 2012 1:31 AM GMT
haha!!
Report caramba November 12, 2012 1:31 AM GMT
yeah, they can't score in this rain. tie it is.
Report HARRY22 November 12, 2012 1:33 AM GMT
this is bears weather
Report SuperTri November 12, 2012 1:38 AM GMT
this is going to be fumble city tonight!
Report SuperTri November 12, 2012 2:20 AM GMT
good as gould! Excited
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