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A few early lines stand out for me
Colts -3.0 @ Jaguars
This is a different Colts team to the one beaten by the Jags in week 3, with 4 wins from their last 5 and Andrew Luck looking more-and-more like the real deal as each week passes. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are IMO one of the two worst teams this season (tied with the Chiefs) and have lost 5 on the bounce since that win in week 3. It is priced up accordingly however with the Colts at 4/5 as opposed to the traditional 10/11. The line won't move from 3 points either but the price may actually get worse than 4/5 (Coral are 10/11 but for a 3.5pt spread)
Bills +11.0 @ Patriots & Rams +11.0 @ 49ers
Both these games fall into a "system" which I like, which is to back the underdog with the points in a divisional matchup where the spread is 10+ points. I don't have the figures to-hand (I'll post it up tomorrow if I remember) but I think the Dog is something like 65% covering these spreads over the last 5 years. I will admit that it goes against the grain to go with teams like the Bills and Rams travelling to powerhouses like the Pats and Niners but you have to take a long-term view of these things sometimes
Buccaneers -3.0 vs Chargers
Bucs again are underestimated by Vegas this week, although their tendency to concede points is a bit worrying. Both teams are 4-4 but the Chargers have only won 2 of their last 6, both of which were against the hapless Chiefs. As with the Colts/Jags 3pt spread though the price is again in the 4/5 - 5/6 range
Saints +1.0 vs Falcons
I am firmly in the "not-quite-convinced-by-the-undefeated-Falcons-yet" camp so this pick is based on that conviction obviously. While I admit that the Falcons have beaten everything put in front of them so far, some of those wins have been unconvincing. If they win this with an impressive performance I think they will go outright favourites for the big one on Monday morning.
Colts -3.0 @ Jaguars
This is a different Colts team to the one beaten by the Jags in week 3, with 4 wins from their last 5 and Andrew Luck looking more-and-more like the real deal as each week passes. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are IMO one of the two worst teams this season (tied with the Chiefs) and have lost 5 on the bounce since that win in week 3. It is priced up accordingly however with the Colts at 4/5 as opposed to the traditional 10/11. The line won't move from 3 points either but the price may actually get worse than 4/5 (Coral are 10/11 but for a 3.5pt spread)
Bills +11.0 @ Patriots & Rams +11.0 @ 49ers
Both these games fall into a "system" which I like, which is to back the underdog with the points in a divisional matchup where the spread is 10+ points. I don't have the figures to-hand (I'll post it up tomorrow if I remember) but I think the Dog is something like 65% covering these spreads over the last 5 years. I will admit that it goes against the grain to go with teams like the Bills and Rams travelling to powerhouses like the Pats and Niners but you have to take a long-term view of these things sometimes
Buccaneers -3.0 vs Chargers
Bucs again are underestimated by Vegas this week, although their tendency to concede points is a bit worrying. Both teams are 4-4 but the Chargers have only won 2 of their last 6, both of which were against the hapless Chiefs. As with the Colts/Jags 3pt spread though the price is again in the 4/5 - 5/6 range
Saints +1.0 vs Falcons
I am firmly in the "not-quite-convinced-by-the-undefeated-Falcons-yet" camp so this pick is based on that conviction obviously. While I admit that the Falcons have beaten everything put in front of them so far, some of those wins have been unconvincing. If they win this with an impressive performance I think they will go outright favourites for the big one on Monday morning.
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OK, re the Bills +110 and Rams +11.0 above, in the 5 full seasons 2007-2011 there have been 75 divisional match-ups where the spread has been 10 points or more
The underdogs are 44-29-2 in those 75 games which gives a profit of 13.65pts (60.27% profit rate (44 wins from 73 bets - 2 void) The annualised figures are 2007: 9-4 2008: 7-3 2009: 14-11-1 2010: 8-5 2011: 6-6-1 so 1 losing season from the last 5 and even then only 0.5pt loss There have been 3 games so far this season in this category and the dogs are currently 2-1. Those games were Browns +11.5 @ Ravens - WIN (Browns lost by 7) Titans +13.0 @ Texans - LOSS (Titans lost by 24) Jets +11.0 @ Patriots - WIN (Jets lost by 3) 1 thing is that I would be wary of Week 17 as it's not a normal week and with all 16 games being divisional match-ups it can throw up some strange results |
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unders in the bears game will be popular
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Should be a really interesting game the Bears vs Texans
Both D's paying really well |
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i like the under in the Eagles/Cowboys game
cant really see 46 points unless both Quarterbacks throw pick 6's (which is possible) |
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texans then they face the niners the week after...Patriots also have a chance to show how good they are..they face houston and the niners back to back in a few weeks
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A lot of snow forecast for this week over there it will affect some of the totals no doubt
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Wonder how much the price will change if tillman is out...
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Watched the Rams ( & Pats ) at Wembley . Rams are done , I'd Take 49ers up to 14 pts , if they want to rack up the points they will
Also like the Colts with Denver & Detroit Hcap treble |
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Buccs only giving up 3 will be a big play for me, bar a couple of dumb plays they'd be 6-2 right now, scoring points for fun and in Martin they have a beast, the overs (47.5) looks a decent play to me too.
Under 39 Seattle/Jets - two poor offences, only way this makes up is if the Ds force turnovers giving short fields. I like the under 48 Bungals/Giants too. GL All |
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Cowboys match unders does look good Hoooooooowever, even tho Romo I thought was not good against the Falcons what he did do was get very close to scoring and given another day may have had a couple of td's if he'd have dived in!! (sorry it's still raw!)
Teams I like the look of this week are : Saints to beat the (unbeaten but never really favoured) Falcons! Broncos to win even tho I think this will be closer than people think! Also a few other picks but I wont bore anyone else!! |
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Horse9 just had a look at the Giants v tangoed bumblebees and that unders bet looks stonking!! (yes thats right...stonking to me!)
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Giants game being brought up. now u/o 49 10/11 in the high st
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Weather watch ..............
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5) Site: CenturyLink Field Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the south. Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5) Site: Soldier Field Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the WSW at 21 mph. |
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not sure why but I quite fancy the Jets today
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why the hell are the Lions big favs to beat the vikings at home?
I know Harvin is out but they still shouldnt be favs thats a pickem game at least]] |
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You pick 'em
Im picking Detroit -2.5  |
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Little stat on the bills (currently +13.5)
No favorite has covered after the London game since NFL started playing games in Europe.Pats 1-13 ATS last 14 home after bye This stat alone has persuaded me to take the dog especially at the line +13.5 |
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Just can't have the Saints today. Not with that D.
The eagles were 0-5 in the redzone last week. Mainly due to a poor eagles offensive line The Falcons won't be that forgiving Falcons -2.5 @ even money for me |
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Saints still look so easy to score against. It took a woeful Eagles effort to make them look like they might be turning a corner. They aren't. Falcons roll ON!
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I'm not so sure. Falcons keep winning against teams less than .500 and with a bit of confidence restored I can't see why Saints shouldn't put up a lot of points through the air.
Saints won 6 of last 7 against Falcons (and even the Falcons win was in OT). Some say that does matter today but I think Saints will feel confident about playing a team they have a sign over. NO SU for me. |
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SuperTri - 49 all gone, 47.5 in most places, winds around 20mph throughout game will make passing game tough, for once sneaking the early prices paid off !
I like over 310 Brees passing yards as well, no real running game to speak of for the Saints and every chance they'll be chasing, 310 can easily be covered in the NFL these days. Same Romo in the later game, over 280 for me. Can't understand the Falcs/Saints line, line moved up from 1.5 to 3 in Vegas but the UK bookies show support for Saints ? |
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At the prices, the bengals straight up for me this week.
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we are going to find a lot out about the Falcons this week
whether they can stop an elite QB |
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Brees pick
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bet on the Saints for me at the current prices
big overreaction |
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giants getting hammered early
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nice Chris Ivory
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Falcons not looking too hot here on D
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Not at all d13, run working really well for saints given brees lots of free space
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well done d13phe
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thanks Iso
pretty easy call tbf leaving all green on Saints Falcs still a good team, just not a 8-0 team imo |
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Bungles all over the giants
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watching it leefee
pretty one sided so far |
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and coulda been 17-3 but stuffed the chance
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Thought the bengals could spring a surprise this week. Not been impressed with the giants these past couple of weeks.
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the Saints secondary still one of the worst in the league
this score is going to go big |
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swardean
easy win for the Seahawks later i fancy the jets tbh |
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How did wes welker drop the easy TD pass
 Saints have an impressive defence in these goal line plays..can they stop them again |
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clutch from Tony G
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