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49ers -7.0 for me here
After a heavy defeat last week, I reckon the 49ers are going bounce back strongly and smash the Seahawks into the ground tonight
I wouldn't be surprised to see a shut-out
After a heavy defeat last week, I reckon the 49ers are going bounce back strongly and smash the Seahawks into the ground tonight
I wouldn't be surprised to see a shut-out
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i personally think seahawks +7.5 at bookies is the play
49ers i expect to win but they woeful on offence which will always keep the hawks in touch. seahawks impressed vs pats whilst 49er crumbled under pressure |
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may well win in landslide but i wouldnt trust alex smith win by 7 vs me and my mates
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I think the 49ers will shut Seattle down, and though the 49ers will struggle I estimate something like 17-6 so I take them to cover the spread
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At the risk of being totally wrong, imo Seahawks will be lucky to get 9pts total. 49ers are different gravy and will be hurting after last weeks defeat by NYG. tbf, Smith is not as bad as people think. He does the easy things well. Falling behind Giants, he was forced to try things and things didn`t go right. Seahawks defence is their strong point but if Smith doesn`t make any big mistakes, SF can chip away with fg`s and win comfortably. 49ers -7 (evs PP) for me. Good luck.
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Surprised I'm reading some of this
49ers are good side but 'classy' not sure they earnt that right and defiantly the qb hasn't As for Seahawks they very underestimated beaten packers and patriots in recent weeks they're no mugs Now personally 49ers should win an could win good I'm not saying they won't But you guys making it sound complete mis match of quality |
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In two 9ers defeats they been very poor in terms offering a fight of a comeback which most disappointing thing
Hope you guys rolls in but I'm hoping for some better pre match proces |
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As a seahawks fan I would love them to win (or at least cover) but week in week out you see they are just not the same team on the road. I agree the Seattle offence will struggle to get anything going here but I can see the same for the 49ers. I always like to take a +7.5 line in any divisional matchup but even though its my team, I may sit this one out. Good luck to any players
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if seahawks visit the endzone, it will be their defense who will score.
i also think this will be a very low scoring game. 16-6 is my guess. |
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Seahawks in Seattle and Seahawks on the road are 2 very different teams. They've already lost by 4 to the Cards and 6 to the Rams on the road, the 49ers are a different kettle of fish to those two teams. Before last weekend, the 49ers had lost 4 regular season matches under Harbaugh - in the following 4 matches they have conceded a grand total of 1 TD and 2 FGs, including 2 shutouts. The obvious danger is that they won't score enough to cover the points but 7 points at home should be do-able.
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backed the seahawks in carolina and they relied on defence...not sure seattle will put up over 10pts in this one so frisco dont really need to do a lot...Have to agree on a niners backlash
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I, too, expect SF to dominate but still see some scoring.
Have taken over 37.5 and HT/FT for the 49er's to lead at the half time and final whistle. |
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These divisional games when the dog has a big start are invariably fraught with betting danger whether it's to cover or total pts , find it impossible to get involved pre-game myself but think a close scoreline is more likely than a blowout with the West so tight.
Good luck all  |
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Seahawks +7.5 for me, young team with unbelievable amounts of belief, think they could be on a bit of a roll here.
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I agree with Sudoku, the Seahawks are on a roll.
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suggests that it will be a big win for one or other of these teams.
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its all about the lead. if the seagulls get ahead then the 49ers could find it difficult to come back. alex smith v that d aint a great matchup if they fall behind. pretty much works the other way too. youd have to just about fancy the 9ers but their odds are all shades of kaka.
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Point-spread will be 9.5 by kick-off
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49ERS COMING OFF A HEAVY LOSS TO GIANTS WILL NOT HAVE SAT WELL WITH JIM HARBAUGH AND WITH HIS ARCH ENEMY PETE CARROL COMING INTO TOWN HE'LL WANT TO SEND A MESSAGE. BUT IF YOU THINK THE SEAHAWKS ARE COMING HERE TO ROLL OVER YOU MUST BE OFF YOUR NUT. THIS TEAM IS PUTTING
UP DEFENSIVE NUMBERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF BALTIMORE 2001 AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THEM GET EVEN MORE STINGY. 49ERS WILL RUN THE SHJT OUT OF THE BALL NO WAY THEY'LL ALLOW ALEX SMITH TO THROW THAT MUCH TONIGHT AFTER WAT THE GIANTS DID TO HIM, THAT WILL SUIT THE HAWKS. I SAID IN ANOTHER THREAD THAT 49ERS ARE OVERRATED AND I DOUBTED MYSELF BUT NOW WE'RE SEEING A TEAM THATS OVER HYPED TO EPIC PROPORTIONS. DEFENSIVELY THEY'RE GOOD BUT ONCE THEY GO BEHIND THEY ARE CLUELESS AND ALTHOUGH I THINK THEY'LL WIN THIS GAME I CAN'T TAKE THEM IN THE SPREAD. I LIKE THE SEAHAWKS TO KEEP IT CLOSE. PICK: SEAHAWKS +7.5 |
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It is quite rare for SF to have two defeats at home on the trot though.
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SEAHWAKS WON'T WIN
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I'm no mathematical wizz when it comes to odds differences, but surely 1.8s on -7 pts and 2.0s on -7.5 pts is too big a difference?
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i might as well go to sleep now after reading this.
i backed over 3.5 this morning with the books and no way to get out of it  but there again i might know better than you lot  |
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Manningham out, should make Moss 2nd WR and a RZ target...first td scorer 17s decent, even against Seattles big great corners.
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37.5
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I think you'll win with over 37.5
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I'm no mathematical wizz when it comes to odds differences, but surely 1.8s on -7 pts and 2.0s on -7.5 pts is too big a difference?
7 is a key number - it's the second most frequent winning margin in the NFL over the past 20 seasons. 8 isn't in the top ten. Let's take a look then at the other key number. Here we will be looking at games where the line was set at -7 the last 20 seasons, and looking at the success rate of alternative lines in these games. We can see the significance of crossing this key number, with the cover rate of a -6.5 line in these games at just over 50%, while -7.5 succeeding just under 45% of the time. Here we are looking at around a 5% improvement for a single point adjustment. This difference is roughly the same in this scenario as taking a -4.5 line to a -6.5 line, a 2 point line adjustment. It's also about the same as taking an adjusted line -8 to -11.5, a full 3.5 point adjustment for the same 5% improvement in cover success. Further, we can also see a similar improvement in success rate across the key number of 3 points in these games, with the cover rate for -2.5 running at almost 68% in games with the line set at -7 the last 20 seasons, as opposed to the -3.5 line which has covered at over 57%. Again, like the analysis of games where the line was set at -3, the cover rate improves around 10% across the key number of 3. . http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/key-numbers-in-nfl-line-betting |
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great post
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I knew the three point margin was common, but I didn't know about the 7 pts.
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great post I'd like to take credit for it, but it's all the work of Betting Expert.
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Coral (shops) were going Seattle + 7 @ Evens, couldn't believe my eyes,. sure they'll allow someone to have a Fiver on it.
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FFS, keep forgetting "Enter" Post.
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^ Again ARGHHHHHHHHHHH - Anyway, Seattle outright for me, I think 4.4 is massive.
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Having said that, the article you posted does not explain the difference of twenty ticks. If the difference between the 6.5 and 7.5 line is just a 5% improvement in success, surely this gap between 0.5 pts is far too big?
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id be surprised if they win by 7 though. probably either be a blowout or a 3/4 point game i reckon. field goals obviously knacker up the 7 points thing, no stats but logic would suggest games between strong offense and poor defense are more likey to get 7 point margins. 2 strong defenses should mean more chance of a game being won by a field goal, if its tight.
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You could surely consistently make a profit using that difference if there was usually such as big gap between the odds. I doubt there is though, which makes it strange that this market shows such a big difference.
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Sideshowbob - Agree, either San Fran walk it, or a very tight game and for me Seahawks win, first 1/4 will tell us a lot. Seahawks not to be laughed at this season, finally.
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I think SF could win this by a big score, but, 9 games without any road defeat by more than 10 pts suggests otherwise for Seattle.
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I think most would agree that you can`t run the ball against the SF defence and Seattle rely on their rushing game, arguably the strongest part of their offense. This means to score points they`ll have to rely on a rookie qb to beat them through the air to put pts on the board. Can`t see that happening. Like earlier posters have correctly stated, Seahawks at home and Seahawks on the road are 2 different teams and Candlestick Park is a hostile place to go. All aboard the SF gravy train for me.
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