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Areyoutalkintome?
11 Oct 12 16:14
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Date Joined: 30 Oct 06
| Topic/replies: 1,145 | Blogger: Areyoutalkintome?'s blog
I'm potentially siding with four strong defensive units this Sunday, it is early days, Injury reports will be vital.

Tampa (-4 v Kansas) - Kansas have had issues at QB all year, many will be celebrating Cassel's demise, though it is a sure fire losing season for any fan base calling for Brady Quinn.
Tampa don't have the best pass defence/rush at first glance, though as previously mentioned on another thread, they have faced some slingers. What they do possess is a stern rushing defence and if they can stop the free running Jamaal Charles then the pressure will be heaped upon the shoulders of Quinn. Eric Wright could also make life tougher if returning to the Buc's secondary.
Offensively, the Tampa have enough to cover and are a solid outfit at home.

Miami (-3.5 v St Louis) - I like the Rams, a much improved outfit and given a few years, they may once again spot a playoff berth, even in a tough NFC west division. They are currently unbeaten at home against a winless road record. St Louis will be missing the services of Amendola thus lacking a clear cut no 1 receiver. Another negative is that Bradford has been on the receiving end of 10 of his 15 sacks during the two times that the Rams have hit the road (see below). The Miami D will be willing to meet him with open arms, they have racked up an impressive 15 sacks, thanks mainly to Cameron Wake, who enjoyed 4.5 sacks against the Cardinals. Miami also rank the no.1 rushing D.

Sacked 4 times in Detroit (a poor pass rush team to date)
2 sack at home to Washington
6 sacks at Chicago
2 sacks at home to Seattle
1 sack at home to Arizona

Chances that this could be a low scoring affair, so unders (37.5-38 at the time of writing) could also be an option.

Vikings (? @ the 'skins) - This obviously rests on the health of RG3, he will have to be cleared by an independent doctor if he is to see game time on Sunday. Cousins is a raw back up, he does look to have the mechanics at this early stage, the question is whether or not he has the application?
bwin have the line with Minnesota receiving 3, other bookmakers remain cautious and rightly so. I would still consider that line if RG3 does start, the Vikes can stop the run (Morris) and their overall defensive package is solid. They also have balanced options offensively and plenty of playmakers in Harvin, Peterson, Rudolph and Jenkins, I still haven't lost hope with Jerome Simpson after his poor week 5, injury ravaged effort.

Finally, Houston (-3.5 v Green Bay) - Houston get extended time to recover from their minimal efforts on Monday night. I'm not a fan of taking on Green Bay, I can never get them right. However, this week they face a team that can move the ball at will (GB are having trouble stopping opposing offences) and have the ability to rush the passer. Granted, Cushing is a big loss, though the impressive JJ Watt and Brooks Read remain, backed up by Barwin and co. Rodgers has been sacked 21 times thus far, tough when considering that the pack is without a legit running game and missing Jennings, Jermichael Finley is also a doubt for the game.
I would also expect Andre Johnson to put up some numbers this week.

I would appreciate your thoughts.

Good luck.

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By:
Dunkley
When: 11 Oct 12 17:56
Nice write up, what are your thoughts on the Steelers tonight? Looking at the -5.5 handicap on them.
By:
Areyoutalkintome?
When: 11 Oct 12 18:27
I saw their game on Sunday versus the Eagles, whom I support. Whilst I felt that Pittsburgh didn't capitalise on the turnovers, I was impressed with the way they controlled the game. I never once thought that the Eagles were going to win. Mendenhall looked effective for a team that respects a running game, just not so sure how he is is going to come off of s short week, days after his return from an ACL tear. Having said that, the Steelers look to be well matched on paper versus a mediocre Titans outfit, even with the absence of Woodley and Polamalu on the defence.

Good luck if deciding to play.
By:
Dunkley
When: 11 Oct 12 18:32
Cool, thanks. I saw the Titans game against the Vikings and they were very poor. I think Pittsburgh can potentially push on now from that win against the Eagles. Think I'm going to play -4.5
By:
d13phe
When: 11 Oct 12 19:42
i dont really understand what is going on wit the titans

they are not as bad on paper as they are playing.

They are one of those teams that will turn up every now and then , particularly at home.

That said the hcap is not high enough for a team with a legitimate RB and lots of good WRs and a QB who can get it done.
By:
Areyoutalkintome?
When: 11 Oct 12 20:05
I also believe that the titans have some decent players. They have missed McCarthy at LB, he will get stronger for his reappearance at the weekend and Britt has not played at anywhere near 100%. Wright is gaining momentum, with Britt back, he (or Washington) may well be able to exploit single coverage. Cook is also playing for a contract.
An injury to Locker and the lack of a running game is hurting them at the moment. We all know that Johnson has the ability and he does have the pro bowler Steve Hutchinson endeavouring to create creases for him, is it on a regressive CJ or is the OL struggling (Locker was only sacked 3 times in 4 games started)? I really have no idea!

I'm leaving this game alone, I have stated that the Steelers have a solid look about them at the line, it looks too good. I just feel uncomfortable about the game (Giants are the only team to win a thurs night game on the road, after a short week).

Good luck Dunkley, I'm sure that I'm just talking myself out of a good thing.
By:
horse9
When: 11 Oct 12 21:09
Chiefs/Buccs is a horrible game to get stuck into, two sides you just can't trust.
I like the fact the Buccs are at home, coming off a bye and will face Brady Quinn (who many natives out mid-West say should be starting ahead of Cassel) at centre.
But this is a Buccs team who have found new ways of losing every week - I just can't get involved in this one.

Pack at Texans is a fascinating game, Texans have impressed this year and look a solid football team but this Packers team are so much better than they're shown do far I just get the impression they could use this week as a statement game.
Over 49.5 would be my call in this one.

Fins/Rams under 38 I agree is a sensible call, what worries me though is that games that looked booked for unders this season have found ways of making up 60, and the defences will have a big say here and if teams are turning the ball over deep in own territory and working with short fields even the most dire offensive teams can put point son the board and 38 is a low number for a game in Florida with limited chance of rain.
Give me snowy/windy Chicago in December and I'll be all over the unders in the 30s....
By:
d13phe
When: 12 Oct 12 14:09
I am not normally one for betting the favourite but the Bengals at 5/6 to beat the winless Browns looks a great price.

the Rams look too big against the Fins

Also think the Packers bounce back this weekend. 

Horrible game as said earlier but the Chiefs (without Cassel) at 2/1 looks good as well

Dependent on injuries but looking to bet all these SU and with the respective hcaps (apart from the Bengals) on sunday
By:
horse9
When: 12 Oct 12 21:16
Falcons -9
Eagles - 3.5
Pack +3.5 and over 47.5
Cards/Bills over 43.5
Eli Manning over 270 passing yards
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Oct 12 21:39
Seattle +3.5 at home.... yes please
By:
horse9
When: 12 Oct 12 21:48
Yeah I looked at that Swardean, awesome home record and no question the Pats have some chinks.
I'm just not sold on the Seahawks, the .5 over a FG could be massive for handicap betting, I still think Pats will win a tight low scoring affair so no bet for me.
GL
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Oct 12 21:57
Always a leap of faith taking on the pats horse9 but think Seattle will be able to run it against them, and their pass defence is ranked 1.  Home advantage normally counts for 3, I would say almost 6 at Qwest Stadium (can't keep up with the renaming).  As you say that .5 point could be massive to hcap backers
By:
runandskip
When: 13 Oct 12 21:49
Falcons -9.5 is my bet of the week.

Atlanta at home should destroy the woeful Raiders... I would even consider backing them -20.5!!

Good luck all.
By:
I win every time!
When: 14 Oct 12 07:00
Runand skip - I looked at this one myself. Good luck
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 09:18
does anyone like the Lions against the Eagles

I am starting to like the Lions in this game
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 09:19
also Talib out for the Buccs for 4 weeks now.  he is their best player imo

Fancy the Chiefs quite strongly now just to run all over the Buccs
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 14 Oct 12 09:49
Still mulling over a few more match ups.

Have both San Francisco and Arizona to beat the spreads.  Details on the blog........

Cassels injured for KC but not sure I have the confidence in Tampa to do the job at home.....more closer to game time.
By:
I win every time!
When: 14 Oct 12 10:23
One bet for me this week. Bills @ Cards Under 43.5. Just can't believe this line.
By:
Pun tang
When: 14 Oct 12 11:17
P4ddy P0wer have a concession this week where stakes refunded (up to £100) if you have a single loser in a match handicap acca (4folds and upwards.

I've had a little go at that with: -

Baltimore (-3)
Detroit (+3.5)
Houston (-3.5)
Giants (+6.5)

Good luck with everyone's bets this weekend.
By:
horse9
When: 14 Oct 12 14:17
Can anyone tell me why the Chargers line has moved from -3 to +1 ?
Has Rivers broken his neck or something ?
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 14 Oct 12 15:02
I've searched...I seem to be the only one who thinks Dallas will upset the Ravens...also have the game under.....details on the blog....
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 16:04
i think the cowboys could beat the Ravens
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 16:07
regarding the chargers

think it is Peyton love in the US
By:
ClayDavis
When: 14 Oct 12 16:12
I like the Colts at the Jets.....Jets are all over the place and Colts and Luck are improving, great result against Green Bay last week
By:
ClayDavis
When: 14 Oct 12 16:13
d13phe - Cowboys have absolutely NO chance of beating the Ravens. 1) Cowboys choke and are not strong enough for a team like the Ravens and 2) Baltimore simply do not lose at home. HTH
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 16:15
having watched the Ravens last 2 games i disagree

they look past it to me and Flacco is not an elite QB.

does anyone give the Raiders the chance.  I know they are not great but the Falcons have been flattered by their schedule and the Raiders are not as bad as their results suggest.  Few pounds from me at 5.6 purely based on price.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 14 Oct 12 16:36
Dallas ZERO chance of winning in Baltimore FACT
By:
glory hornet
When: 14 Oct 12 16:38
Atlanta for me on hcp is the bet of the week , even like the 365 additional hcps , take them -14
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 16:38
i cant have that hcap at all

i have just put a chunky bet on the Raiders on the HCAP

Falcons are overrated imo
By:
grayhawk
When: 14 Oct 12 16:40
ClayDavis...statements like that do nobody a service....keep things like that to the football forum
By:
I win every time!
When: 14 Oct 12 16:55
well said Gray.

I think the Raiders are dangerous off the bye so although I was going to back Atlanta giving up 9.5, I'm staying away. Dallas have a chance, but not much of one (although it could be close). Agreee Flacco is sh !te tho ;-)
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 17:06
raiders start well
By:
HARRY22
When: 14 Oct 12 17:09
All in on the browns tonight...now or never
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 17:14
no chance harry Mischief
By:
HARRY22
When: 14 Oct 12 17:15
great start ffs Sad
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 17:17
the benlals were huge against that shower
By:
tiny dave
When: 14 Oct 12 17:24
Eagles look a mess once again
By:
HARRY22
When: 14 Oct 12 17:24
No chance,the bengals are going down...backed giants for the division so need help from detroit today,,think i may get it
By:
d13phe
When: 14 Oct 12 17:32
the falcons being shown up for what they are here

an above average team
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 14 Oct 12 17:35
Dont u mean overated d13
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