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d13phe
03 Sep 12 08:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 22,897 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
We are back Grin

Despite the lack of TV coverage (Kirkwood you ain't welcome here) Sad

anyway, onto the games

some interesting prices on the week 1 matchups which generally look quite close to me:

some standout prices early for me:

Bills
Colts
Rams
Cardinals
Chiefs (biggest Punt)

I love an early season dog and I am hoping at least 2 of these win
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Report GoBallistic September 3, 2012 11:05 AM BST
Scab refs for week 1 at least

Minimum stakes, sit back and watch the carnage unfold Grin
Report paulie bedders September 3, 2012 12:31 PM BST
CLE ov PHI +9 (5/6)
2* WAS @ NO +9
STL @ DET +9 (5/6)
IND @ CHI  +9.5
TB ov CAR SU (23/20)
PIT @ DEN SU (1/1)
OAK ov SD +1.5

Fancy some dogs myself, think my Redskins have every chance of getting within 9 of the Saints.

Lets just get it on tv now.
Report ClayDavis September 4, 2012 7:39 PM BST
I really fancy SF 49ers at Green Bay.

bet of the weekend is Denver to beat the Steelers
Report Sudoku_Junior September 4, 2012 9:05 PM BST
What is the refereeing situation?
Report ClayDavis September 4, 2012 9:30 PM BST
scabs
Report Sudoku_Junior September 4, 2012 10:07 PM BST
I take it they are still proper refs though?
Report Pounf September 5, 2012 12:10 AM BST
Dont know how anybody can bet with confidence on the first week. Its a lottery, turnovers will decide games and at this stage they are unpredictable
Report d13phe September 5, 2012 11:28 AM BST
Does anyone else have the feeling that the 49ers will fail to live up to the billing this year

I think they were tremendous last year but I just think that without an elite QB and RB you will fail to put consecutive seasons up in the NFL.

their D is great but they won't fly under the radar this year as they did last year.

I just cannot see how people are picking them for the SB based on the fact that they nearly beat the Giants last year.

just one man's opinion but I think they might struggle.
Report db1974 September 5, 2012 1:23 PM BST
I am against the Niners this season as well

Randy Moss & Mario Manningham are all very well but you still need a QB who is capable of throwing the deep ball to them and Smith is not that QB, IMO

Also the Defence won't be as good this year
Report grayhawk September 5, 2012 1:43 PM BST
Will be surprised if there is a big drop off defensively db1974 ..so long as they don't get hit by an injury crisis......it's rare in this day and age that all defensive starters return.

No fan of Alex Smith mind.
Report db1974 September 5, 2012 2:26 PM BST
Yeah maybe. I was swayed by Bill Barnwell's article on the 49ers back at the start of last month.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8237657/san-francisco-repeat-last-season-greatness

As regards this weekends spreads, I like

Saints -7.0 vs Redskins - Saints are going to come out of the blocks like a rampaging bull after the off-season suspensions etc. Griffin is going to get the brunt of 6 months of pent-up frustration. Saints also went 8-0 last year in the dome (7 pts worst winning margin)

Buccaneers +2.5 vs Panthers - I think the Bucs will show a big improvement from last season when they basically quit on Raheem Morris and I think they have an outside chance of challenging for a play-off spot this year. Also I'm not convinced by Cam Newton, I don't think he had one 300yd game after the 2nd week last year, having thrown 400yds in the 1st 2 weeks.

Patriots -5.5 @ Titans - WTF is this line about. The Titans, who couldn't even catch the Texans in AFC South last year when Houston had a 3rd-string QB. Even in the last game of the season, the Texans played their 2nd-string team and the Titans only won because the Texans went for 2 at the end instead of kicking the extra point to bring the game to OT. The Patriots, injuries permitting, could conceivably go 16-0 this season with their schedule. The Pats to win this by at least a TD, if not more.
Report horse9 September 7, 2012 8:45 PM BST
I read somewhere today that the Texans line opened up weeks ago -6 and has been chipped away in the US all Summer to its current-12.5 and is predicted to go -13.

I'll be getting with the Bills getting a 3 start and the Ravens to give up 6 though a little worried 48% of the bets struck over the pond on this game are for the Bungals.

I'm sure you've got your own sites to get prices stateside but this one is OK, shows price moves each day.

http://www.picksfootball.com/DrawPointSpreadMoves.aspx
Report Sudoku_Junior September 7, 2012 10:09 PM BST
Whats the deal with this then horse, am i right in thinking that a price move in the US will be followed by the same price move over here?
Report horse9 September 7, 2012 10:52 PM BST
Some books open up months in advance, the US line for week 1 were available in the States during the Summer, obviously the layers take a flyer about pre-season injuries, cuts, trades etc but when they opened up the Texans week 1 line they made them 6 point favs, the line is now 12.5.
It's unlikely that any UK bookies had this market up before Monday so the chance to back the Texans giving up 6 for us in the UK didn't exist
Report horse9 September 7, 2012 10:53 PM BST
Forgot to add, did any of you guys see that an appeal panel overturned the bans on players involved in bountygate today ?
Vilma can now play for the Saints and he'll make a big difference to that D
Report Sudoku_Junior September 7, 2012 11:05 PM BST
I see,cheers for explaining that. I saw snippets of it online but didn't get time to read it. An interesting decision, i fancied the saints to do well this year after all of that. I fancy them even more so now.
Report db1974 September 8, 2012 12:12 AM BST
Colm has just had surgery and is expected to be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list following the appeal. Smith and Fujita are both expected to play though.
Report db1974 September 8, 2012 12:13 AM BST
Colm??????? Stoooopid autocorrect!

Vilma is going on PUP
Report horse9 September 8, 2012 10:18 AM BST
DB - where did you hear that ?
I thought he had minor knee surgery, I know he missed pre-season but I thought he was otherwise fit.

Fujita is not in Cleveland
Report horse9 September 8, 2012 10:19 AM BST
Correction - Fujita is NOW in Cleveland.
Report skyblues September 8, 2012 11:42 AM BST
Some books open up months in advance, the US line for week 1 were available in the States during the Summer, obviously the layers take a flyer about pre-season injuries, cuts, trades etc but when they opened up the Texans
week 1 line they made them 6 point favs, the line is now 12.5.
It's unlikely that any UK bookies had this market up before Monday so the chance to back the Texans giving up 6 for us in the UK didn't exist

Horse lines have been up in uk for ages well before pre season even started at 365.
Texans were -7 lowest i saw,
but i backed the bills along time ago +5 seattle +1 under 47 gmen game.

All the lines are up well in advance now adays in the uk.
Report horse9 September 8, 2012 11:46 AM BST
OK cheers Sky - kind of makes sense the way global sport/punting is these days, my brain is usually so fried come Feb that I switch off until Summer camp.

I guess with totals you're always better off going under, imagine going over and finding the weather is blowing a gale and game time sees a dumping of an inch of rain....
Report skyblues September 8, 2012 11:52 AM BST
Yeah mate, tbh i really like the under in that game before pre season, all them bets apart from seattle were placed before pre season, little risky but took my chances.
Lets hope for a good season for the chiefs mate, but i feel we wont win the division imo and will lose tommorow.
Report HARRY22 September 8, 2012 12:57 PM BST
Sheettttttttttttttttttttttttttt clay davis...You are a bullshit politician but finally some sense...liking the Denver Nap. Cool
Report horse9 September 8, 2012 1:05 PM BST
Sky - bold prediction time, going into week 17 I say every team in the West will still have play off chances.
Remember last year we had to do it without Berry and Jamaal and the difference Eric made in 2010 from the 2009 secondary was huge, we're a much better team than we showed last year, I think we're a cracking price at 7/2....
Report Sudoku_Junior September 8, 2012 7:25 PM BST
I played the over/under total points markets last season with reasonable success.

With defenses having a full off season under their belts this year, i'm expecting total offensive yards to be slightly down on last year in comparative games, and will be expecting a few points less. Maybe something to watch out for in the early weeks.
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 5:56 PM BST
kansas denver double Cool
Report Beaniash September 9, 2012 7:09 PM BST
ANDREW LUCK IS FINDING OUT TODAY THAT THE PRESEASON MEANS NOTHING
Report ClayDavis September 9, 2012 7:13 PM BST
saints are going no where with that pathetic defence
Report Beaniash September 9, 2012 7:24 PM BST
TEBOW GETTIN MORE TIME THAN I ENVISIONED I SEE HOW THEY GONNA USE HIM NOW AND IT MIGHT BE EFFECTIVE ... INTERESTING
Report ph. September 9, 2012 7:28 PM BST
in running with willhill don't bother,tried for 15 mins to place several £40 accas perhaps 20 and got none accepted,price change this price change that . Review and reenter ffs if price goes bigger then you take it but no computer has just pinged me about 50 times in said 15 mins. Ended up frustrated and done nowt with the shower of ****.
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 7:30 PM BST
saints just got lucky right on the half
Report db1974 September 9, 2012 7:38 PM BST
Yeah could be big momentum turner at the Dome for Saints
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 7:49 PM BST
saints seem to make these big plays
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 7:52 PM BST
rg3 coming straight back...backed washington at 6/4 before they scored a TD...was looking at a big lead until that late saints TD
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 7:55 PM BST
TD SKINS Cool
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 7:55 PM BST
Great start to the nfc south if atlanta can win Cool
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 8:03 PM BST
redskins had a good defence last season..they were never off the field though.
Report ClayDavis September 9, 2012 8:08 PM BST
saints defence just aint good enough
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 8:14 PM BST
correct. saints finished
Report db1974 September 9, 2012 8:25 PM BST
Defenseless receiver in Titans game surely?
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 8:32 PM BST
superb london fletcher
Report NonShy.. September 9, 2012 8:39 PM BST
need jags to win.... for my acca

houston
atlanta
NE
Jacksonville
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 8:52 PM BST
always in with a chance when MJD is on the field
Report Good for nothing September 9, 2012 8:53 PM BST
wow lucky nonshy :D
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 8:53 PM BST
jags td
Report inner city sumo September 9, 2012 8:53 PM BST
Great TD reception for Jags!
Report inner city sumo September 9, 2012 8:56 PM BST
Michael Pick Laugh
Report -Morgan- September 9, 2012 8:58 PM BST
no...P rick
Report I win every time! September 9, 2012 8:59 PM BST
unreal, game tied
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:00 PM BST
wow
Report ClayDavis September 9, 2012 9:00 PM BST
Andy Reid gotta be close to getting the sack
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:08 PM BST
i hope so...all them offensive weapons and they are not getting it done..nice defence in philly also...lions win it late
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:10 PM BST
packers under pressure now..nfc north all off to a winning start
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:11 PM BST
ohh overtime rule different..vikings not home yet
Report NonShy.. September 9, 2012 9:11 PM BST
come on jags!

need a score this possession
Report NonShy.. September 9, 2012 9:14 PM BST
FFS

Vikings win
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:30 PM BST
456 offence for eagles and 10 pts
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:31 PM BST
touchdown eagles Cool
Report ClayDavis September 9, 2012 9:34 PM BST
why didnt saints go for 2pts knowing another TD ties?
Report db1974 September 9, 2012 9:36 PM BST
Same difference I suppose. Little bit more pressure on Skins maybe.
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:41 PM BST
Mike williams TD..knew he would come good this season..no double coverage this season
Report HARRY22 September 9, 2012 9:42 PM BST
niners looking mean tonight
Report grayhawk September 10, 2012 12:50 AM BST
Excellent display by San Francisco...well done to all 49ers backers.
Report HARRY22 September 10, 2012 12:58 AM BST
packers fans dont need to worry...wont face a D like that each week
Report judorick September 10, 2012 1:00 AM BST
I had a great season punting total game points last year

started with Steelers at Denver overs on 43.5, 45.5 and 46.5.... 44 points will be a profit 47 to cop the lot
Report grayhawk September 10, 2012 1:06 AM BST
No worries over the Packers O....the D are struggling to get a rush and can't defend the run or pass, not the greatest recipe for success Grin
Report d13phe September 12, 2012 3:40 PM BST
I think it actually bodes well for the Packers to lose

They will batter Chicago this week imo

the 49ers just caught them cold and made the most of opportunities
Report d13phe September 12, 2012 3:55 PM BST
by the way the 10/1 on the Packers atm is looking good considering they still have an easy schedule
Report grayhawk September 12, 2012 5:21 PM BST
I know they officially have the easiest schedule d13phe but to start the season they have

Home San Francisco
Home Chicago
Away Seattle
Home New Orleans
Away Indy
Away Houston.

After dropping the home opener they could easily be .500 ( or even worse Sad ) looking at that start and in a tough division they don't wanna get too far adrift....after watching their lines in the first game overpowered by the Niners wouldn't like to be backing them @ 10s....for me i'd rather take another look after the Texans game.

On tomorrow nights game against da Bears i strongly fancy the overs.
Report Sudoku_Junior September 12, 2012 5:47 PM BST
I think the consensus is with Green Bay at the moment, is that regardless of how bad they perform on defense, Rodgers will always get them out of a hole.

Its just simply not going to happen like that, and I wont be backing them at 10's get to 16's and i might think about it. I Know it was the first game, but they were horribly bad on defense on sunday and that drastically needs to improve for me to consider backing them.

The biggest gainers for me this week were the broncos and i will admit i overlooked them at the start of the season due to concerns over manning, but on that performance they could be serious contenders.
Report d13phe September 13, 2012 8:46 AM BST
agree about the Broncos

I have no worries about the Packers.  They were outplayed but only lost by 8 points against a team that executed everything perfectly.  Green Bay were pretty awful.  they have a few rookies on the D also that will get better the more they play.

Alex Smith wont keep up that level across the season but Rodgers will.

I just think that last weeks loss is good for them and they will bounce back here (if anything a short week is better for them)
Report HARRY22 September 13, 2012 2:01 PM BST
Joined: 18 Jul 03 | Topic/replies: 17,531 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
I think it actually bodes well for the Packers to lose

They will batter Chicago this week imo

the 49ers just caught them cold and made the most of opportunities

You may have to take off the blinkers D13 and just accept the 49ers are looking complete on each side of the ball....They dominated the game.
Report d13phe September 13, 2012 2:23 PM BST
I have the 49ers on side now Harry in my SB book for that exact reason.  would be stupid not to at 10/1 (when i got them)

I still think the Packers are the NFC team to beat though

the 49ers have not really encountered any key injuries yet.  That will be the test of how good they really are.
Report CJ September 13, 2012 8:06 PM BST
The 49ers played Green Bay at the perfect time. The whole draft was focused on strengthening the defence and it's going to take time to play as a tight unit.

In fact for how bad they played, the quality of their receivers seems to have got even better, Driver was barely off the bench & took just three snaps. In a lot of teams he'd be WR2. If Finley's hands were better Green Bay would've been a lot closer than 8 points.

I wouldn't write them off just yet. 2 years ago, they barely made the post season and ended up storming through to the SB.
Report CJ September 13, 2012 8:07 PM BST
Chicago having knocked off the 32nd best team in the league, suddenly think they're top dogs in the North, we get this every year, plenty of bluster about what they're going to do to the Packers, and every year Cutler and co get trounced.
Report racingguru September 13, 2012 9:08 PM BST
Thought Bears +6 was big and so it proved but knicking the value doesn't mean I'll collect.
Report grayhawk September 13, 2012 9:34 PM BST
CJ....In the last two seasons Finley has developed an unwanted habit of dropping balls he used to catch in his sleep.....Rodgers used to say he had one of the best pair of hands he'd ever seen....bet he doesn't think that now.
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