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d13phe
03 Sep 12 08:05
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 22,897 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
We are back Grin

Despite the lack of TV coverage (Kirkwood you ain't welcome here) Sad

anyway, onto the games

some interesting prices on the week 1 matchups which generally look quite close to me:

some standout prices early for me:

Bills
Colts
Rams
Cardinals
Chiefs (biggest Punt)

I love an early season dog and I am hoping at least 2 of these win

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Replies: 78
By:
GoBallistic
When: 03 Sep 12 10:05
Scab refs for week 1 at least

Minimum stakes, sit back and watch the carnage unfold Grin
By:
paulie bedders
When: 03 Sep 12 11:31
CLE ov PHI +9 (5/6)
2* WAS @ NO +9
STL @ DET +9 (5/6)
IND @ CHI  +9.5
TB ov CAR SU (23/20)
PIT @ DEN SU (1/1)
OAK ov SD +1.5

Fancy some dogs myself, think my Redskins have every chance of getting within 9 of the Saints.

Lets just get it on tv now.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 04 Sep 12 18:39
I really fancy SF 49ers at Green Bay.

bet of the weekend is Denver to beat the Steelers
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 04 Sep 12 20:05
What is the refereeing situation?
By:
ClayDavis
When: 04 Sep 12 20:30
scabs
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 04 Sep 12 21:07
I take it they are still proper refs though?
By:
Pounf
When: 04 Sep 12 23:10
Dont know how anybody can bet with confidence on the first week. Its a lottery, turnovers will decide games and at this stage they are unpredictable
By:
d13phe
When: 05 Sep 12 10:28
Does anyone else have the feeling that the 49ers will fail to live up to the billing this year

I think they were tremendous last year but I just think that without an elite QB and RB you will fail to put consecutive seasons up in the NFL.

their D is great but they won't fly under the radar this year as they did last year.

I just cannot see how people are picking them for the SB based on the fact that they nearly beat the Giants last year.

just one man's opinion but I think they might struggle.
By:
db1974
When: 05 Sep 12 12:23
I am against the Niners this season as well

Randy Moss & Mario Manningham are all very well but you still need a QB who is capable of throwing the deep ball to them and Smith is not that QB, IMO

Also the Defence won't be as good this year
By:
grayhawk
When: 05 Sep 12 12:43
Will be surprised if there is a big drop off defensively db1974 ..so long as they don't get hit by an injury crisis......it's rare in this day and age that all defensive starters return.

No fan of Alex Smith mind.
By:
db1974
When: 05 Sep 12 13:26
Yeah maybe. I was swayed by Bill Barnwell's article on the 49ers back at the start of last month.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8237657/san-francisco-repeat-last-season-greatness

As regards this weekends spreads, I like

Saints -7.0 vs Redskins - Saints are going to come out of the blocks like a rampaging bull after the off-season suspensions etc. Griffin is going to get the brunt of 6 months of pent-up frustration. Saints also went 8-0 last year in the dome (7 pts worst winning margin)

Buccaneers +2.5 vs Panthers - I think the Bucs will show a big improvement from last season when they basically quit on Raheem Morris and I think they have an outside chance of challenging for a play-off spot this year. Also I'm not convinced by Cam Newton, I don't think he had one 300yd game after the 2nd week last year, having thrown 400yds in the 1st 2 weeks.

Patriots -5.5 @ Titans - WTF is this line about. The Titans, who couldn't even catch the Texans in AFC South last year when Houston had a 3rd-string QB. Even in the last game of the season, the Texans played their 2nd-string team and the Titans only won because the Texans went for 2 at the end instead of kicking the extra point to bring the game to OT. The Patriots, injuries permitting, could conceivably go 16-0 this season with their schedule. The Pats to win this by at least a TD, if not more.
By:
horse9
When: 07 Sep 12 19:45
I read somewhere today that the Texans line opened up weeks ago -6 and has been chipped away in the US all Summer to its current-12.5 and is predicted to go -13.

I'll be getting with the Bills getting a 3 start and the Ravens to give up 6 though a little worried 48% of the bets struck over the pond on this game are for the Bungals.

I'm sure you've got your own sites to get prices stateside but this one is OK, shows price moves each day.

http://www.picksfootball.com/DrawPointSpreadMoves.aspx
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 07 Sep 12 21:09
Whats the deal with this then horse, am i right in thinking that a price move in the US will be followed by the same price move over here?
By:
horse9
When: 07 Sep 12 21:52
Some books open up months in advance, the US line for week 1 were available in the States during the Summer, obviously the layers take a flyer about pre-season injuries, cuts, trades etc but when they opened up the Texans week 1 line they made them 6 point favs, the line is now 12.5.
It's unlikely that any UK bookies had this market up before Monday so the chance to back the Texans giving up 6 for us in the UK didn't exist
By:
horse9
When: 07 Sep 12 21:53
Forgot to add, did any of you guys see that an appeal panel overturned the bans on players involved in bountygate today ?
Vilma can now play for the Saints and he'll make a big difference to that D
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 07 Sep 12 22:05
I see,cheers for explaining that. I saw snippets of it online but didn't get time to read it. An interesting decision, i fancied the saints to do well this year after all of that. I fancy them even more so now.
By:
db1974
When: 07 Sep 12 23:12
Colm has just had surgery and is expected to be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list following the appeal. Smith and Fujita are both expected to play though.
By:
db1974
When: 07 Sep 12 23:13
Colm??????? Stoooopid autocorrect!

Vilma is going on PUP
By:
horse9
When: 08 Sep 12 09:18
DB - where did you hear that ?
I thought he had minor knee surgery, I know he missed pre-season but I thought he was otherwise fit.

Fujita is not in Cleveland
By:
horse9
When: 08 Sep 12 09:19
Correction - Fujita is NOW in Cleveland.
By:
skyblues
When: 08 Sep 12 10:42
Some books open up months in advance, the US line for week 1 were available in the States during the Summer, obviously the layers take a flyer about pre-season injuries, cuts, trades etc but when they opened up the Texans
week 1 line they made them 6 point favs, the line is now 12.5.
It's unlikely that any UK bookies had this market up before Monday so the chance to back the Texans giving up 6 for us in the UK didn't exist

Horse lines have been up in uk for ages well before pre season even started at 365.
Texans were -7 lowest i saw,
but i backed the bills along time ago +5 seattle +1 under 47 gmen game.

All the lines are up well in advance now adays in the uk.
By:
horse9
When: 08 Sep 12 10:46
OK cheers Sky - kind of makes sense the way global sport/punting is these days, my brain is usually so fried come Feb that I switch off until Summer camp.

I guess with totals you're always better off going under, imagine going over and finding the weather is blowing a gale and game time sees a dumping of an inch of rain....
By:
skyblues
When: 08 Sep 12 10:52
Yeah mate, tbh i really like the under in that game before pre season, all them bets apart from seattle were placed before pre season, little risky but took my chances.
Lets hope for a good season for the chiefs mate, but i feel we wont win the division imo and will lose tommorow.
By:
HARRY22
When: 08 Sep 12 11:57
Sheettttttttttttttttttttttttttt clay davis...You are a bullshit politician but finally some sense...liking the Denver Nap. Cool
By:
horse9
When: 08 Sep 12 12:05
Sky - bold prediction time, going into week 17 I say every team in the West will still have play off chances.
Remember last year we had to do it without Berry and Jamaal and the difference Eric made in 2010 from the 2009 secondary was huge, we're a much better team than we showed last year, I think we're a cracking price at 7/2....
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 08 Sep 12 18:25
I played the over/under total points markets last season with reasonable success.

With defenses having a full off season under their belts this year, i'm expecting total offensive yards to be slightly down on last year in comparative games, and will be expecting a few points less. Maybe something to watch out for in the early weeks.
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 16:56
kansas denver double Cool
By:
Beaniash
When: 09 Sep 12 18:09
ANDREW LUCK IS FINDING OUT TODAY THAT THE PRESEASON MEANS NOTHING
By:
ClayDavis
When: 09 Sep 12 18:13
saints are going no where with that pathetic defence
By:
Beaniash
When: 09 Sep 12 18:24
TEBOW GETTIN MORE TIME THAN I ENVISIONED I SEE HOW THEY GONNA USE HIM NOW AND IT MIGHT BE EFFECTIVE ... INTERESTING
By:
ph.
When: 09 Sep 12 18:28
in running with willhill don't bother,tried for 15 mins to place several £40 accas perhaps 20 and got none accepted,price change this price change that . Review and reenter ffs if price goes bigger then you take it but no computer has just pinged me about 50 times in said 15 mins. Ended up frustrated and done nowt with the shower of ****.
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 18:30
saints just got lucky right on the half
By:
db1974
When: 09 Sep 12 18:38
Yeah could be big momentum turner at the Dome for Saints
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 18:49
saints seem to make these big plays
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 18:52
rg3 coming straight back...backed washington at 6/4 before they scored a TD...was looking at a big lead until that late saints TD
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 18:55
TD SKINS Cool
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 18:55
Great start to the nfc south if atlanta can win Cool
By:
HARRY22
When: 09 Sep 12 19:03
redskins had a good defence last season..they were never off the field though.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 09 Sep 12 19:08
saints defence just aint good enough
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