2012/13 Superbowl Winner

A lot of sporting events are decided by mentality and momentum. It's like a football team which reaches a penalty shoot out having been out played during the game - they know that should have already lost - you often find this team will win the shoot out as they have the mentality to go for broke. I expect Dallas to go for broke from the start next week as they will feel that they should already be done for the season having seemingly blown it against New Orleans whereas i think Washington will feel like they already deserve to be guaranteed a play off spot given their recent performances. So if Dallas start strongly and build up a lead Washington could start doubting themselves. Just my opinion.

49ers really 1.05-1.11 to beat arizona.....?

wont be under 1/10 come game day surely!!!!!

^what do you know Mug..

merry xmas mug

Green Bay looking good now,ya'd imagine they'll beat Minneseota to seal the #2 seed,what are chances of 49ers resting starters and lose to Cardinals so they can take a different route than Lambeau,they might prefer to go thru Atlanta,unlikely I know just a thought....

I am with ClayDavis on this one.  I think skins are a more rounded side with a better QB.  I think they edge this one at home.  From a personal point of view I wish Dallas would win as I think Seattle match up well to them.  Lynch would run all over them and with Browner back could slow the cowboys offence down enough to win this.  Seattle @ Washington would be tough to call.

I think there are far too many assumptions that Packers win this Sunday.  Lets see if they stop Peterson first.

Either way, some post Christmas crackers in store.

I think the Packers are a good match up for the 49ers and I don't for a second think they will be worried about playing them. They have beaten them already and i'm sure they will be confident about beating them again

they are 1.12 - 1.14 now.... btw ; )


merry merry xmas from the new york jets!!!!!

lol

Denver Broncos

Houston texans...who?

Surely the Houston Texans price has to be one of the best value offerings for a very, very long time.

Drifting to 18.5 after Week 17 seemed too much, but out to 23 seems utterly ridiculous. This is a team who was considered the favourites for most of the season and you don't become abject overnight. 23 looks enormous compared to the NFC odds despite the market thinking that Denver / New England would be large favourites in the Superbowl.

They have lost some form, but playing a very ordinary Cincinatti side this week should be a gimme (1.5 looks absurd) and will give some confidence going back to New England which will be a tough task, but if they get through that, they will go to Denver on a high, where they have already won once, before going to the Superbowl.

Almost as ridiculous as the price for a team with a rookie QB going on the road for 4 weeks when they have been, one game against SF aside, mediocre against all but abject opposition but they are the market's lovechild.

Imafraid Houston are on the slipery slope. OT wins against Jags and Lions didnt look good at the time and they have failed to recapture their early season form. They disposed of a poor Titans side but 3 losses (incl a hammering at NE) in their last 4 games shows they are a team low on confidence. They are certainly a match for anyone on their best form but losing Cushing mid season was a huge blow and the offence cant seem to get going lately.
In fact they could struggle to beat Cincinatti. A better team than last year they will arrive on the back of winning 7 of their last 8 games. Think QB will be under huge pressure form the sack master Benglals and if they can stifle the Texans and silence the crowd a shock is certainly not out of the question.It also depends if Foster is on his game as he can turn on the style no question. Close call i think!

Division Downers


great write ups lads,

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season-ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than three points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

i think 49ers are massive and houston are too big and brady over manning again!

like g.bay and under v minnesota,
houston shud cover and seattle game will come down to rg3 and 3 pts!
ravens win,so i am going for near all the favourites!

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than three points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS

basically the stat says that- 2 OUT OF  Bengals, Colts and Vikings -wont cover this weekend.

hoping the seahawks and the packers progress for my SB book

Joined: 06 Dec 07 | Topic/replies: 2,572 | Blogger: The real Moaner's blog
Surely the Houston Texans price has to be one of the best value offerings for a very, very long time.

Drifting to 18.5 after Week 17 seemed too much, but out to 23 seems utterly ridiculous. This is a team who was considered the favourites for most of the season and you don't become abject overnight

Considered the favs by clueless idiots it seems...a team who shortened to 4/1 half way through a season with a soft schedule apart from having to play the packers and the patriots who both stuffed them..even after the packers thrashed them they still remained favs....on becoming abject overnight...I would say abject over a few months...Layed them  all season long at the stupid odds they were being backed at...I almost feel out of principle I should stay away as I dont like this team but if some miracle does happen I would be bankrupt   I will back them above 20/1 before they face the bengals just to tie up the afc side...no need for silly risks at this stage.

so then there were 8

and I win every time's 70s still going strong.

I think the Ravens look huge at the current prices.

Pinny quoting NFC team to win the Superbowl at 2.360 (AFC @ 1.654) - seems very generous and would imply line of ~ 7 points I reckon which is way too high IMO

Dutching the 4 AFC teams on here gives 1.85 (excl commiss) while the 4 NFC teams gives 2.13 (excl commiss) which would certainly back this up.

Surely odds of 2.36 don't imply a handicap of 7 in NFL?

2.36 normally represents approx + 2.5 viz with 7 points equivalent to approx 3/10 v 12/5 in fixed odds land , with some subtle variations from company to company

What odds will Pats go when they best Houston ? 3.5 ? 3?

No chance assuming all favs win their games

Lost the run of myself there with the 7pts!

@db any other qoutes for an NFC winner. NFC teams won 135 games this season to 121 AFC wins which suggests the overall quality of the NFC was stronger. I also had the AFC a hosting the 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th weakest divisions (AFC east, south and west) in that order. I suppose this has something to do with the popularity of the QB's and the eventual superbowl lines as anything else, most once a year NFL bettors may well stick with the known quantities (likely to be Payton and Brady) as opposed to only Green Bay having a superbowl winning QB. I have said it before but my view would be that only GB would go in with any chance of an 11/10 or even money qoute. Everyone else would be a dog to a a greater extent.

Cheers DB - the 7 didn't make sense to me, even as a part timer on this sport

PP and 365 also doing winning conf markets.  2.2 best for NFC/1.72 for AFC between those two books.

3 straight forward games
Broncos will beat Ravens
Falcons will beat Seahawks
Patriots will beat Texans

Green bay capable of travelling and winning (no bet).

5 star Treble 17/10 william Hill

ALL I CAN SAY IS HOUSTON TEXANS ARE GOING TO BEAT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS,
AND OUT OF ALL THE TEAMS LEFT, I ALREADY CHOSE ALL AS THE POTENTIAL SUPERBOWL WINNER WITHOUT DENVER BRONCOS AND NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.
HOWEVER...
DENVER BRONCOS ARE TOUGH, MIGHT WIN THIS ONE THIS YEAR - SOMETHING TELLS ME

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ARE A LAY ALL DAY...
GET FREE BETTING STAKES BY LAYING THEM!!!
ALL DAY LONG ALL DAY LONG!!!

Seattle Seahawks Is A Good Call, And Baltimore Ravens, And Green Bay Packers
ONE WILL WIN

any real thinking to your madness or???

Unlucky OP, great shout way back in August

Are the New England and Atlanta prices for real?

The Pats are without their biggest offensive weapon (Brady excluded) and are much easier to defend without him. Yet, they have shortened from 3.1 to 2.2.

Meanwhile Atlanta looked impressive defeating Seattle, a late nervous almost collapse excepted. Yet they have drifted out to 7 from 5. That seems an utterly absurd price.

Interesting to note that Kaepernick has never had back to back great games.

you really think atlanta looked impressive defeating seattle??? it was a last min field goal!
they very nearly lost against a side that only turned up at the half & probably would have lost had seattle not had total brain freeze in the first half and kicked some points.

market suggesting that the Pats would be pretty big favs against the 49ers in the SB which is just plain wrong

I would have 49ers about 1.6-1.7 personally and would still probably want to bet on it,

2 ways of looking at it...Pats should have won the Superbowl last year (with a barely fit Gronk) but they fecked up against the Giants. Also the game in Foxboro told us the Pats can score at will against the 49ers without The Gronk. Although will rightly point to the fact that Justin smith was taken off in that game.
In the Pats comeback against the 49ers the 49ers defence was out on its feet. The Pats were scoring at will.
I didn't think Green Bay played at all well against the 49ers and yet they still put up 31 points against them. Seattle put up big points against them recently.
Would u back CK in a Super Bowl to outscore Brady?
It's a tough one

With a fit Justin Smith, the 49ers will beat the Patriots, especially now that Gronk is gone until next year. No coincidence that the 49ers stutter at the end of the regular season corresponded exactly with Smith's absence

49ers didn't have Kapernick last year, that is the single biggest factor going into these four games in terms of who is in and out. He's improved their offense by 50%.

Pats are a shocking price. I can't believe 2.18.

Kap outscored Rodgers and his D is better

no reason to think he cant do it against the Pats

I was SHOCKED when i saw the New England price this morning......the Niners have already beaten the Pats on the road and would have them favs to beat them on neutral ground...as db1974 says having Justin Smith back is massive, he makes that defence go.

i have secured a pretty good profit on this market but i am thinking about just putting it all on the niners

they are streets ahead of the remaining teams

i think the ravens are the second best team

wouldnt be surprised to see a ravens niners final

Let's hope you're correct d13phe

That was about the Niners.

NE price is bonkers.

d13phe, I just did practically the same thing

Coral are going 9/4

The New England Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday.

Mike Perry, oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag, has opened the floodgates at New England -9.5 with the total set at 51 after the Patriots’ 41-28 victory over the Texans. However, the win did come at a cost. New England lost tight end Rob Gronkowski after he re-injured his surgically repaired right forearm in the first quarter while diving to make a catch. Running back Danny Woodhead (thumb) was also forced to leave the game.

When asked if the potential loss of Gronkowski next week factored into his line for the AFC Championship Game Perry simply replied, “not really. Not with the way this Pats offense is rolling.”

The Patriots lost 31-30 at Baltimore in Week 3, but covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs – the only time New England has been a pup this season.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has opened the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites with the total also at 51.

SFG won't make the same mistake of handcuffing their QB  running for 3 quarters like Seattle, if they'd have come out like they should have they'd have won easy.

cheers db

didnt have a corals account

signed up and placed a wager on 49ers

think i get a free £50 bet as well and I signed in via quidco so got an extra £12.50

hey d13 you have changed your tune since page one of this thread

atlanta did not look impressive....niners will get to ryan...seattle rush was rubbish...with them receivers he had a lot of time to find them.

Look at the love for schaub on page 2

I am with the 49ers now as well, during their last match i managed to dump some of my Packers bet onto them but wished i did more but was caught up in the Ravens game then had a break, amateur. So i will shirt all my profit (which isn't a lot as a few trades went wrong) on them to break even on the others. I don't like Kaep at all he seems an arrogant **** but you can't let emotion get in the way of betting and i think they will win it this year and after all, you only live once

Also, the 49ers should have won it last year but for disgusting good fortune favouriing the Giants so it could also be argued that they are 'due a break' and that it is their 'turn/time'

Harry - you know, i know, we all know that i am looking for a big game from none other than yes, RAY LEWIS next week as well! I will try not to bang on about him too much during the game as i know it vexes you so deeply

Got to be the Falcons for me. Not convinced by Kaepernick and his ability to string good games together. I'd be happy to make them marginal favourites at home against SF. 7 is an unbelievable price.

I like ray lewis but these days the ravens have bigger playmakers on the team

i think it is hard not to like the niners now Harry

particularly with the explosiveness of crabtree and Kapaernick

i have had some decent mileage out of the patriots and they have helped my SB book but quite frankly they are a ridiculous price.

Totally agree just as denver were at half time on saturday...Let the crazy prices continue to next season also

REAL MOANER...does anything convince you? same as the year the packers won it...negative negative negative...think you were all atlanta that season also..secret dirty bird fan imo ..still believe clemons injury could have been the difference maker...If atlanta line holds up they have a chance but I see the 49ers doing a lot more to pressure ryan.  Not sure kaep has to do anything spectacular to be impressive....180 yards rushing could destroy the falcons.

superbowl MVP....If the ravens win do you think they may just give it to ray lewis no matter who has a good game? 66/1

I can't have the Ravens at all in Foxboro. I quite fancied the Ravens in Denver but can't have them at all this weekend. Think the Pats will win easy, very easy.
Hence why they are favs for Super Bowl and rightly so. They will be there and prob coast to be there. SF might be there but won't coast and will be in a battle royal probably.
Why the Pats price surprises anyone confuses me. They were favs in the Super Bowl last year even though the Giants were on a real roll and the Pats struggled to see off the Ravens

Pats most likely favs on the back of being there or thereabouts every yr,if they happen to meet the 49ers,they would prob have to score 35 pts plus to beat them with the way CK is running with the ball...

Good point Harry. I had forgotten about that.

However, they were 8 before the Conference Championship then.

Now they are 7.4 with just two wins to go? Including one against a QB with what, 9 starts? Their price which just continues to drift, just amazes me.

If I was to have one bet to trade right now a sub 2.20 lay on NE would have to be it.  The price seems to factor in two faultless performances and even if one is against a beaten up Ravens team it's very hard to imagine them picking up the trophy on the back of two 1.01 trains.

At the risk of getting shouted at, I'm a bit disappointed that the layers on here can't find it within themselves to offer a better price than Ladcrooks commission free on the Ravens.In the old days they would have been about 15's on here being the outsider of the party.
Sign of the times

Have to feel Baltimore will want to win the big prize after they hear about "Prop Joe's" ( the wire ) death

At the risk of getting shouted at, I'm a bit disappointed that the layers on here can't find it within themselves to offer a better price than Ladcrooks commission free on the Ravens.In the old days they would have been about 15's on here being the outsider of the party.
Sign of the times


>>>Why don't you offer 15's? - because you'll get your arm ripped off. But you want others to offer a silly price?

Hold on, I'm coming down to make you a nice saturday afternoon bacon sandwich and then i'll clear the snow off your drive!!!

It's a betting exchange.
Silly me,I thought that meant you would get better prices than the firms are offering.If I wanted Bookie prices I'd take a stroll down the high street which it looks like I'll have to do now,just after I've had my bacon Sandwich

dlarssonf 19 Jan 13 08:19
Have to feel Baltimore will want to win the big prize after they hear about "Prop Joe's" ( the wire ) death

As long as his clock shop is in good hands.

Yep Harry that is the main thing

The fat man was a very good actor...superb character in a top show...usually these dramas never live up to the first few series...for me I liked the final 2 with marlo chris and snoop dominating the streets like the 49er O line dominating in the georgia dome .  I have even become a fan or miniatures lester freamon genius

Which team should be shorter in order that the Ravens would be offered at 15.0

I predict a New England win tomorrow

And Atlanta

It's a betting exchange.
Silly me,I thought that meant you would get better prices than the firms are offering.If I wanted Bookie prices I'd take a stroll down the high street which it looks like I'll have to do now,just after I've had my bacon Sandwich


>>>It is. Don't see how that means you're supposed to get 15's on the Ravens though.

Stewardsenquirey, if you want 15s on the Ravens then put 15s up on the Ravens and see if you get matched. That's the whole point of this place. I dunno what you're moaning about.

Maybe I went overboard with the 15's(it was more of a random figure just to show that this place is not as great as the adverts on the telly would have you believe)
Ladcrooks are still holding 9/1 commission free,can I get that on here currently No.
Point made,Point Proven.Now get over it!

The markets on here now a days are made for dull arbers.

Stewardsenquirey, if you want 15s on the Ravens then put 15s up on the Ravens and see if you get matched. That's the whole point of this place. I dunno what you're moaning about.


>>>He wants people to give him free money.

I want people to at least better a Bookie price I think you'll find so I'm not lining their pockets to lay me on here and back at 9's on the books.

In this case your luck is out, no use complaining, it is what it is. If you're not prepared to offer the price you want, don't expect it back.

As I said I was going to yesterday, I've backed them with Ladcrooks at 9/1 now (commission free)
I'll let other people fill the dull Arbers pockets.
So no more complaints from me.

You had nothing to complain about.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Let me get you a dummy.

I think as with most things these days there is just no silly lay money left any more.

Hard to imagine NE odds getting more cramped and SF look realistically priced, maybe even they are cramped if you feel Altanta and home adv have a decent shout.  So overall, just no room in the book for Balt to get any bigger.  Increasingly in small number of runner markets, the high street will be best - if you can get on of course

Superbowl: 49ers v ?

49ers v B-more

pleasing scenes.

actually think baltimore is a tougher matchup for the 49ers than the Patriots

1.6 for the 49ers is woefully short imo, should be a pick em at best.

i am getting the hang of this NFL betting.

I think the books make the prices dependent on who have the most fans

Agree with that d13..much harder match up which is why I found it crazy that the niners only went odds on when the ravens were just about home and dry.

The Patriots are priced up (and backed) like it's still 2007

Every week

The odds in these play off games, especially these past two weeks has been ridiculous. The fact that it was the best 8 teams in the NFL, and the fact that on any given day each team left in the playoffs could quite easily have won the superbowl, didn't seem to matter one iota. It was just simply blind betting imo as though every favorite was just going to blow out the dog.

TUB 20 Aug 12 23:50 
ravens beat 49ers in harbaugh bowl

Patriots are getting to be priced up like Liverpool db1974.......not nearly as bad though.

Pats with Gronk is/was a different team, weird market last year and this year didn't give a feck about him.

I think we all understand that NFL betting is heavily based on public team betting, so is baseball, with teams like Dallas in the NFL and the Yankees and Cubs attracting mug money and therefore being mug prices.

Pats are a massive public team, and I think too many people bet yesterdays teams because there's a feeling of safety with a team like the Pats, even though they're clearly a paper tiger, that's psychology innit?

BALTIMORE RAVENS SUPERBOWL CHAMPIONS.....................................................

Post on 20th August at 23:50

Mentioned that post other day from TUB KC

Top bombing

TUB
20 Aug 12 23:50
Joined:
06 May 11
| Topic/replies: 58 | Blogger: TUB's blog
ravens beat 49ers in harbaugh bowl


What a call pal! respect

outrageous call

Aug 20, 2012 -- 5:50PM, TUB wrote:

ravens beat 49ers in harbaugh bowl

hope u cleaned up TUB