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With so many games on every day during the season, i was just intrigued whether any of you traders, punters or whatever out there knew of any ideas
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With so many games on every day during the season, i was just intrigued whether any of you traders, punters or whatever out there knew of any betting system ideas
Not really a system but if you try to follow all teams/all games, etc, you're dead.
As you said, there are a lot of games / teams so best to keep track of teams you can read (when backing OR opposing). You'll quickly find the teams that you can profit with.
If a team is odds on, I tend to split the stake (not necessarily equally) between ML and -1.5 to curve up the the average if the team wins. I'm around ten points down right now on 17 games BUT what is interesting is that the games I won on, only one won by a single run while the others were +2 or more.
People can debate betting around the pitcher. But pitchers stop runs when they are in form. They don't score runs. So the better pitcher on the night doesn't necessarily mean a win but it is a check in the box.
Don't just go with the stats. Bookies rub their hands together on this. It takes a moment to glance at how the stats were achieved to get a better picture.
Also, if a team gets killed (i.e. 11-3), look at the game. Last season, the number of times I looked at a blow-out and it came to one inning of 6 or 7 runs, in some case 2 homers with players on base, to make the score line look worse. This can lead to finding value to back this team in an upcoming game, especially if they lose the next one as well.
As you said, there are a lot of games / teams so best to keep track of teams you can read (when backing OR opposing). You'll quickly find the teams that you can profit with.
If a team is odds on, I tend to split the stake (not necessarily equally) between ML and -1.5 to curve up the the average if the team wins. I'm around ten points down right now on 17 games BUT what is interesting is that the games I won on, only one won by a single run while the others were +2 or more.
People can debate betting around the pitcher. But pitchers stop runs when they are in form. They don't score runs. So the better pitcher on the night doesn't necessarily mean a win but it is a check in the box.
Don't just go with the stats. Bookies rub their hands together on this. It takes a moment to glance at how the stats were achieved to get a better picture.
Also, if a team gets killed (i.e. 11-3), look at the game. Last season, the number of times I looked at a blow-out and it came to one inning of 6 or 7 runs, in some case 2 homers with players on base, to make the score line look worse. This can lead to finding value to back this team in an upcoming game, especially if they lose the next one as well.
Quick Checklist
Look at pitcher
Look at pitcher vs. line-up
Look at pitcher vs. team
Consider the park
Respect streaks at 3+ (particularly losing streaks, bad teams will find a way to lose)
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
Try not to lay runs
Look at the pitcher again
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitching always dominates hitting.
More often than not a good pitcher will have its way with a team before a hitter lights up a good pitcher.
Study both starting pitchers recent starts. Remember, starting pitcher is only as good as his last 2-3 starts.
Look at runs scored and runs against over a pitcher's previous 10 games as a gauge instead of won-loss record.
Learn about WHIP; it's one of the most important handicapping stats in baseball.
Check Sagarin pitcher ratings based on predicted ERA, rather than actual ERA
Look at the guys who are lesser known and have made a few good starts, because they won't be valued like an elite pitcher yet.
An automatic play is a left-handed pitcher making his debut or going through the league the first or second time.
Go against favourites who have a pitcher coming off the disabled list.
Check how the pitchers have done over the course of their career on the field their playing on. Players often perform well at certain parks for no apparent reason.
Similarly, check to see how a pitcher has done over the course of career vs. the current opponent.
Check the past couple of day's box scores to see how much the manager has worked the bullpen. A manager often has no plan to use certain pitchers in the game, because they've thrown too many innings in the past couple games.
It’s not enough to know that a team has a good bullpen.
You need to know how that bullpen has been used for the previous three nights.
Will the closer pitch?
Did he go two innings the game before?
Has the middle reliever been getting shelled?
How does he do against the lineup he's facing?
You need to drill down and check how a middle reliever does against a guy who may have been on a different team last year.
Always shop for the best odds.
Avoid betting on your favourite team. Your opinion is a biased one and your judgement is skewed.
Avoid accas.
Always check injury reports before placing bets.
Check weather reports. Bad weather and/or winds may make for an easy under or over play.
Watch lots of games. Also, try to watch or listen to pre-game reports.
Study and handicap the games without betting them. It will raise your winning percentage.
Always consider and look for underdogs first.
Keep track of your records. Track and monitor how your sides, totals, runline and accas do. Break them down even further to see if favourites or underdogs are treating you good/bad.
Consider learning to bet on totals; they are much easier to beat.
Unders are easy money with good pitchers on the mound.
Most people at first glance will see a low number like 7 and automatically jump on the OVER because that number is so low. In reality, it should be the exact opposite.
Look at pitcher
Look at pitcher vs. line-up
Look at pitcher vs. team
Consider the park
Respect streaks at 3+ (particularly losing streaks, bad teams will find a way to lose)
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
Try not to lay runs
Look at the pitcher again
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitching always dominates hitting.
More often than not a good pitcher will have its way with a team before a hitter lights up a good pitcher.
Study both starting pitchers recent starts. Remember, starting pitcher is only as good as his last 2-3 starts.
Look at runs scored and runs against over a pitcher's previous 10 games as a gauge instead of won-loss record.
Learn about WHIP; it's one of the most important handicapping stats in baseball.
Check Sagarin pitcher ratings based on predicted ERA, rather than actual ERA
Look at the guys who are lesser known and have made a few good starts, because they won't be valued like an elite pitcher yet.
An automatic play is a left-handed pitcher making his debut or going through the league the first or second time.
Go against favourites who have a pitcher coming off the disabled list.
Check how the pitchers have done over the course of their career on the field their playing on. Players often perform well at certain parks for no apparent reason.
Similarly, check to see how a pitcher has done over the course of career vs. the current opponent.
Check the past couple of day's box scores to see how much the manager has worked the bullpen. A manager often has no plan to use certain pitchers in the game, because they've thrown too many innings in the past couple games.
It’s not enough to know that a team has a good bullpen.
You need to know how that bullpen has been used for the previous three nights.
Will the closer pitch?
Did he go two innings the game before?
Has the middle reliever been getting shelled?
How does he do against the lineup he's facing?
You need to drill down and check how a middle reliever does against a guy who may have been on a different team last year.
Always shop for the best odds.
Avoid betting on your favourite team. Your opinion is a biased one and your judgement is skewed.
Avoid accas.
Always check injury reports before placing bets.
Check weather reports. Bad weather and/or winds may make for an easy under or over play.
Watch lots of games. Also, try to watch or listen to pre-game reports.
Study and handicap the games without betting them. It will raise your winning percentage.
Always consider and look for underdogs first.
Keep track of your records. Track and monitor how your sides, totals, runline and accas do. Break them down even further to see if favourites or underdogs are treating you good/bad.
Consider learning to bet on totals; they are much easier to beat.
Unders are easy money with good pitchers on the mound.
Most people at first glance will see a low number like 7 and automatically jump on the OVER because that number is so low. In reality, it should be the exact opposite.
been following the ou by stadium based on wind direction (stats available on covers.com) tidy fun, but not something to put the mortgage on 
orioles 28 Apr 12 13:31
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
those are the most fun
NEVER lay shorter than 1.75
those are the most fun
Some sage advice there Orioles.
Personally I really like streak betting, you can easily get 5-10 winners before finally hitting on a loser (See Kc's terrible run followed by an immediate upswing), if a team is on a long losing streak say 5-6 games or more i'll just back the opposition blind.
Personally I really like streak betting, you can easily get 5-10 winners before finally hitting on a loser (See Kc's terrible run followed by an immediate upswing), if a team is on a long losing streak say 5-6 games or more i'll just back the opposition blind.
Cheers, DD.
This is a good site for Park Factors, GVL.
http://www.parkfactors.com/
Other sites I use
Statfox
Thespread
Sportsbettingstats
Vegasinsider
This is a good site for Park Factors, GVL.
http://www.parkfactors.com/
Other sites I use
Statfox
Thespread
Sportsbettingstats
Vegasinsider
Interesting stuff Orioles, particularly for a relative newbie.
Surely there's conflicting advice there though;
'Try not to lay runs' then 'Unders are easy money with good pitchers on the mound'. Got to agree with the last bit. If the stats say unders, don't be afraid to go for it.
Also you say to look for the underdog, but never lay shorter than 1.75. Surely if you think the price is wrong, a lay of a 1.75 must be taken on, especially in baseball where any team is capable of beating another on the right day.
Surely there's conflicting advice there though;
'Try not to lay runs' then 'Unders are easy money with good pitchers on the mound'. Got to agree with the last bit. If the stats say unders, don't be afraid to go for it.
Also you say to look for the underdog, but never lay shorter than 1.75. Surely if you think the price is wrong, a lay of a 1.75 must be taken on, especially in baseball where any team is capable of beating another on the right day.
Laying the runs refers to the runline. Think carefully before betting the runline.
Sorry, I used confusing language for the '1.75 rule' (I reverted to American betting speak!) I meant don't back anything shorter than 1.75 (personally, it's the only rule I never break)
Unders is almost my default totals' bet, and generally the lower the total, the more I like it.
Good luck
Sorry, I used confusing language for the '1.75 rule' (I reverted to American betting speak!) I meant don't back anything shorter than 1.75 (personally, it's the only rule I never break)
Unders is almost my default totals' bet, and generally the lower the total, the more I like it.
Good luck
That makes more sense. Totally agree about the don't back under 1.75. The game is too 'volatile' if thats the right word to be backing at low odds. And I don't really see the point in the 5 innings runline. I backed it once and that was only because I thought it was match odds because Betfair decide to put in pride of place at the top while the match odds are hidden away below the adverts for the bloody slot games. Thankfully it came in.
And BTW you might have to change that 'don't bet on your own team' rule if the Orioles keep going the way they are - you're missing out
And BTW you might have to change that 'don't bet on your own team' rule if the Orioles keep going the way they are - you're missing out
How www.baseball-reference.com hasn't been mentioned I don't know. Has every stat you need to make your decisions.
As a long term MLB winner the best advice I can give is Look up Yogi Berra and Casey Stengel quotes!
The same question was asked in a soccer thread and I found this the best response
dave_the_poor • November 22, 2011 1:19 PM GMT
my betting strategy used to be to back a team called kecskemeti in hungary cos i find their name slightly amusing
but then i found out that their logo & strip is an outrageous purple colour that i don't fancy at all so i gave up on em
been searching for a new betting strategy ever since
really the only upside of the whole experience is that if u google image search kecskemeti u get a reasonably fit hungarian lass on the first page
The same question was asked in a soccer thread and I found this the best response
dave_the_poor • November 22, 2011 1:19 PM GMT
my betting strategy used to be to back a team called kecskemeti in hungary cos i find their name slightly amusing
but then i found out that their logo & strip is an outrageous purple colour that i don't fancy at all so i gave up on em
been searching for a new betting strategy ever since
really the only upside of the whole experience is that if u google image search kecskemeti u get a reasonably fit hungarian lass on the first page
i havent been betting much this season, but imo the best thing to do is get mlb tv and watch all the games from 2 divisions. you then get a feel for teams and pitchers better than just looking at the results etc. some pitchers have reasonable stats but when you watch then play youve no idea how cos theyre utter pish!
ive always thought about backing a big-hitting team like the yankees to win on the -1.5 every single home game regardless. but never got round to trying it.
anybody got any stats on how that would have gone this season or the last few years?
anybody got any stats on how that would have gone this season or the last few years?
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