North American
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It is conceivable they could have 2 playoff games at home - to a flagging houston then NE/pittsburgh........ i'm not the biggest fan of flacco but he has proved in 2 games this season against the steelers that he can get it done when it matters, ray rice hitting top form and apart from one game against the chargers, there D is as stout as ever. Out of the lot, New Orleans the worst price....... in tremendous form no doubt, but a tricky tie at home to detroit, away at san fran and then away at the packers....... thats even just to get to the bowl!
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I can't have Flacco in the post-season.
If I was looking for a little value, I'd look at the Giants at 25s. I like their D (particularly their pass rush) and Manning has shown flashes of real talent in a nicely balanced offense. |
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Best bet for me is laying Pats for the AFC Champs.
No defence that bad should be able to win a championship and even though they're likely have homefield advantage throughout Jan I wouldn't be surprised if a Steelers, Ravens or even the Bungals went to Foxboro and turn Brady and co over. On the outrights I can't see any big errors, I like the Bungals in Houston this weekend so maybe the 80/1 on them is big, play offs always throw up a surprise or two, but the winner will have to go through Green Bay at some point which explains the prices |
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I agree about New England. They won't give leads away and come back like they have recently.
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Took the Bungals out at 200 myself because I could see them with a Houston -> Pats run and are capable of winning both. The Pats price is like a rerun of 12 months ago...except I think they were actually a better team twelve months ago!
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On the Ravens... I just can't be depending on Flacco in the playoffs. Though I'm not red on them neither am I green.
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Dunno about Bengals. I don't think they are good enough really.
7 matches against playoff teams in regular season - 7 losses 9 wins against teams with combined record of 43-85 Whatever about beating the Texans next weekend, I can't see them beating 2 of Ravens/Steelers/Patriots just to get to the Superbowl |
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think it may be a year to soon for the bengals but they are an exciting team with a dependable D and an exciting offense. If there is any team that could surprise it is them.
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Flacco wont win a superbowl. Save your money.
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houston will stop flacco and co...there is the value..do it the hard way....defence wins and they have a fit team bar TE and can rack up points once they work their way into a game...2nd best defence...just need to stop reed and do a number on Lewis, but it is a closer match up than people think imo...
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Can one below par performance against a very good defence really make them such outsiders? Considering they were 9 at the start of the playoffs and two of the three favourites are out their odds look huge considering the NFC sides remaining.
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Was thinking the same myself Moaner....yes they struggled to create much offence yesterday but the D that they will be going up against next week is nowhere near as good......will have no fears travelling to Foxboro neither.
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I may be wrong but the odds in the SB market don't matchup with the current match odds which are simply ridiculous
I think Houston have obviously been underestimated and Denver overestimated |
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Aside from Baltimore, value on NE seems good as the current odds would look to imply odds of around 1.7 in the Superbowl!
Against San Fran or NYG, the Pats would be sub 1.6 max and possibly sub 1.5. |
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They were -9 against them during season. Take off 3 points for home field + NYG are playing much better than they were then so id take off enough 3 points (at least) to reflect that. Id say itd be a -3 line for the superbowl, which is probably around 1.66 on the moneyline.
Personally, id go -2.5. Against niners Id go -3.5. |
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Implied odds via the SB market has SF49ers 2.45-2.50 for the SB and NYG 2.08. I simply don't understand that...
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My superbowl book hopes that Baltimore are the value
New England are 2.16 yet I rate all 3 other teams above them |
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same here just cannot belive the prices at the mo
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Some stats for you Raven backers or the long odds on Pats backers
The Pats have not beaten a single team with a winning record this year The Ravens have playes 7 teams with a winning record and beaten 6 of them Hmmmmm Can't get my head around this game cos I think Flaco is simply terrible, the man is a clueless headless chicken with no touch but they can run the ball and the Pats D is average at best. Depends how injured Ed Reed is imo Giants are the bet of the night imo, 49's are not that good and played an easy schedule The G men will be too good on D and are looking decent on the O too now |
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I think the ravens odds underestimate how good the Houston D is
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