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ok, ive a question,

oldbean

05 Nov 11 22:32

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Date Joined: 23 Aug 03

| Topic/replies: 1,200 | Blogger: oldbean's blog

if approx 23 thousand approx, pepole give there pick on a nfl game, (yahoo sports)
and say 88% pick the 49ers and 12% pick redskins, based on a 100% would it be fair to say the 49ers@ 88%favs equating to a 1/7 shot, would u consider that to be value @ 20/43,
hope u know where im going here??

Pause • Switch to Standard View ok, ive a question,

Report Lori • November 6, 2011 8:19 AM GMT

It's not the right way to work it out.

If everyone knows there's a 51% chance of something happening, then 100% of them should pick it to happen (assuming no other incentives or handicaps)

Report oldbean • November 6, 2011 12:56 PM GMT

ok, i take ur point, thanks

Report shahab • November 6, 2011 3:19 PM GMT

22000 people gave there opinion...not all bet on this event

Report orioles • November 6, 2011 4:50 PM GMT

Didn't we once run the consensus bets?

I seem to remember the forum doing it one year.

Report dlarssonf • November 6, 2011 5:03 PM GMT

yeah orioles, Jimmy K I think was the username

Report db1974 • November 7, 2011 12:45 PM GMT

The Public is currently 13-12-1 where the Consensus is > 70% this year

Games are:

Week 1 (2-2)
CLE (-6.5) vs CIN - The Public Lost
ARI (-6.5) vs CAR - Won
ATL (-1.0) @ CHI - Lost
NE (-7.0) @ MIA - Won

Week 2 (1-2-1)
PIT (-13.5) vs SEA - Won
GB (-10.5) @ CAR - Lost
DAL (-3.0) @ SF - Push
BAL (-5.5) @ TEN - Lost

Week 3 (2-2)
CAR (-3.5) vs JAC - Won
SD (-14.0) vs KC - Lost
PIT (-10.5) @ IND - Lost
BAL (-5.5) @ STL - Won

Week 4 (1-2)
BUF (-3.0) @ CIN - Lost
ATL (-6.0) @ SEA - Lost
NO (-9.0) @ JAC - Won

Week 5 (1-0)
SD (-3.5) @ DEN - Won

Week 6 (1-0)
GB (-14.0) vs STL - Won

Week 7 (1-2)
PIT (-4.0) @ ARI - Won
GB (-10.0) @ MIN - Lost
BAL (-10.0) @ JAC - Lost

Week 8 (2-2)
BUF (-4.0) vs WAS - Won
NYG (-9.5) vs MIA - Lost
DET (-3.0) @ DEN - Won
NO (-13.5) @ STL - Lost

Week 9 (2-0)
SF (-5.0) @ WAS - Won
ATL (-6.5) @ IND - Won

Report orioles • November 7, 2011 2:14 PM GMT

Jimmy K sounds about right, nice one

I think he had a filter too, didn't he, dlarssonf? It had to be above a certain percentage.

Report db1974 • November 7, 2011 2:21 PM GMT

eh ... yeah, the filter was 70%

That's why I posted all the results for > 70% above!

I don't agree with the thinking though. It only works if the line is moved sufficiently IMO. In most cases the line isn't moved enough for a play against the Public to be worth it.

eg - just because 70% of people think that the Falcons will beat the Colts by 6.5 points doesn't necessarily mean that the correct odds aren't even money