North American
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if approx 23 thousand approx, pepole give there pick on a nfl game, (yahoo sports)
and say 88% pick the 49ers and 12% pick redskins, based on a 100% would it be fair to say the 49ers@ 88%favs equating to a 1/7 shot, would u consider that to be value @ 20/43,
hope u know where im going here??
and say 88% pick the 49ers and 12% pick redskins, based on a 100% would it be fair to say the 49ers@ 88%favs equating to a 1/7 shot, would u consider that to be value @ 20/43,
hope u know where im going here??
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Replies: 10
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It's not the right way to work it out.
If everyone knows there's a 51% chance of something happening, then 100% of them should pick it to happen (assuming no other incentives or handicaps) |
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ok, i take ur point, thanks
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22000 people gave there opinion...not all bet on this event
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Didn't we once run the consensus bets?
I seem to remember the forum doing it one year. |
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yeah orioles, Jimmy K I think was the username
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The Public is currently 13-12-1 where the Consensus is > 70% this year
Games are: Week 1 (2-2) CLE (-6.5) vs CIN - The Public Lost ARI (-6.5) vs CAR - Won ATL (-1.0) @ CHI - Lost NE (-7.0) @ MIA - Won Week 2 (1-2-1) PIT (-13.5) vs SEA - Won GB (-10.5) @ CAR - Lost DAL (-3.0) @ SF - Push BAL (-5.5) @ TEN - Lost Week 3 (2-2) CAR (-3.5) vs JAC - Won SD (-14.0) vs KC - Lost PIT (-10.5) @ IND - Lost BAL (-5.5) @ STL - Won Week 4 (1-2) BUF (-3.0) @ CIN - Lost ATL (-6.0) @ SEA - Lost NO (-9.0) @ JAC - Won Week 5 (1-0) SD (-3.5) @ DEN - Won Week 6 (1-0) GB (-14.0) vs STL - Won Week 7 (1-2) PIT (-4.0) @ ARI - Won GB (-10.0) @ MIN - Lost BAL (-10.0) @ JAC - Lost Week 8 (2-2) BUF (-4.0) vs WAS - Won NYG (-9.5) vs MIA - Lost DET (-3.0) @ DEN - Won NO (-13.5) @ STL - Lost Week 9 (2-0) SF (-5.0) @ WAS - Won ATL (-6.5) @ IND - Won |
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Jimmy K sounds about right, nice one
 I think he had a filter too, didn't he, dlarssonf? It had to be above a certain percentage. |
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eh ... yeah, the filter was 70%
That's why I posted all the results for > 70% above! I don't agree with the thinking though. It only works if the line is moved sufficiently IMO. In most cases the line isn't moved enough for a play against the Public to be worth it. eg - just because 70% of people think that the Falcons will beat the Colts by 6.5 points doesn't necessarily mean that the correct odds aren't even money |
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Here's a thread from last season
http://community.betfair.com/north_american/ go/thread/view/94138/25921121/consensus -nfl-week-3-picks?pg=1 |
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lol ... give me a break, it was a late night!
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