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Simon Milham profit and loss.

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Replies: 136
By:
morrissey
When: 19 Sep 10 23:22
theresbeenagoal Joined: 06 Jan 04
Replies: 1245 13 Sep 10 22:57 
Correct me if I'm wrong but the former RL tipster whose name escapes me (Francis something or other) didn't work for the Post much longer after putting up a 20 point win in the biggest bóllock drop possibly in the history of the sport (World Club Challenge match).
THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO WIN (unless it's dribs and drabs or in the case of Pricewise when the average price laid is vastly under that which it's tipped at).


its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.

ppl always point to the fact that some of the big bookies are shareholders in it or something like that, means nowt.
By:
morrissey
When: 19 Sep 10 23:24
orioles Joined: 26 Feb 03
Replies: 3674 19 Sep 10 22:52 
Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.

It's Thunderdome Devil


funny that because when you talk to or read about the big sportsbooks in america they have been saying for 2 weeks now that there has been some serious sharp money coming in for the NFL especially as there has been some serious public overreaction to the first weeks games. Sharp punters are ALWAYS around, as there will always be edges or lines to smash into just like the two Dallas lines. BOTH were set way too high and sharps were all over the bears from last tuesday onwards forcing the line down.
By:
orioles
When: 19 Sep 10 23:36
Well, ok, I wouldn't smash into any football bets in the first two weeks of the season and although I'm certainly not sharp, to coin a phrase, I know a couple of pretty serious bettors in the US whom I've been friends with for 20 years or so, and they would rarely, if ever, touch the first two games.

Different strokes, I suppose - and those Dallas lines were definitely not 'way too high', that's just fantasy.
By:
morrissey
When: 19 Sep 10 23:51
the dallas line started out at -9.5 or 9 with a lto of early books which was quickly taken down. didnt it end up closer to 7 by game time>?

dallas were VERY VERY poor on offense pre season and it carried on to the game against washington when they were gash imo. chicago (who i dont have any affinity for in any way shape or form) were imo much better than the bare result showed against detroit the same week. and detroit have showed they arent as bad as a lot think this season in their first two games without winning

therefore imo the line was very wrong.
By:
morrissey
When: 19 Sep 10 23:55
and the line was and is also wrong for the giants game later for me..

ive taken the giants (who were better than the score suggests last week) on the match odds and took the 5 earlier in the week.
By:
orioles
When: 20 Sep 10 00:15
It's certainly true that money came for the Bears late, whether that indicates the line was 'way too high' is another matter! GL with the Giants, I'm keeping my £2 in my pocket.
By:
morrissey
When: 20 Sep 10 00:23
cheers dude... have a good one.
By:
theresbeenagoal
When: 20 Sep 10 01:13
its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.

You're not ridiculing me then effectively say I haven't a clue. Bit of a contradiction really. I wouldn't mind but you have given no argument as to why that is the case.

I stand by what I said, they will not give a winning strategy or identify a profitable approach and the vast majority of their sports tipsters will be doing their brains with no regards whatsoever to their readers. "Dan Childs tipped 10/3 Brechin City on Saturday (but is doing 15% to advised stakes on the season)" doesn't read great does it?*





* I have no idea how Dan Childs is performing, no offence intended.
By:
morrissey
When: 20 Sep 10 01:19
its simply because the average punter is a mug who doesnt REALLY give a fk about where the best price etc is as they punt in shops and a lot of ppl DONT have access to all bookies..

so they read the post whther buying it or in the shops and take what the tipsters say into account and i dare say punt what they give IF they think the reasoning is ok ,.,.. so if the racing post continually puts up duff tips and losing runs going on months etc it is detrimental to them id say.. wouldnt you?

and im not ridiculing you at all i dont know you mate.. but surely a paper that gives out tips on sports and horses would like their customers to at least THINK that the info they give out is good info and well researched..
By:
theresbeenagoal
When: 20 Sep 10 01:44
You have re-inforced my point, they don't want you to win - the Post is for betting shop fodder. Betting shop fodder who do in 15-20% on turnover. The winners, be it pricewise at 25/1 or milham's dart hitting the right side of the handicap, are inconsequential - I could set my ageing dog a task to make selections and be erudite around them to come close to being as successful long term.
By:
Princess Purple Guitar
When: 20 Sep 10 01:49
he is just not that good to be honest - at least he chooses his own picks but writing it on a sunday he has lost his value - maybe a tuesday write up would put him in better stead and thus take into account the vegas line from the start...but i doubt the post care enough to let him do that..
By:
Lori
When: 20 Sep 10 10:21
Don't often disagree with you O sir, but have to here.

The start of the season is where some of the really serious guys have a bigger edge over the linesmakers as it's the time where's there's less data to compile a proper mathematical line and so accurate projections are more difficult to get hold of. (Even linesmakers can make projections based on 12 weeks data, it becomes a much easier job)

I do agree though that sharp players are around all season long, it's a matter of approaching each week in a different matter.

In baseball for instance, I know of more than one person (me being one) who have to shut down at midseason as the current season's info becomes more relevant - and I'm better working from projections like PECOTA as a base. That doesn't mean that other people will have to shut down during that period, and it's likely that some do the exact opposite to me and come into their own during the second half of the season.

I don't think it's correct to rule out weeks one and two as betting grounds. The Chiefs and Seahawks bets week one this season and the Falcons 2-3 seasons ago (2/1 at home to Detroit) were some of the better value bets in ages.

I can understand that people who place bets based on what they see rather than numbers shut down early in the season, nothing wrong with that either. For me the key is to (attempt to) slide seamlessly between projection as the season progresses.
By:
Lori
When: 20 Sep 10 10:22
*Between projection and actual data
By:
Lori
When: 20 Sep 10 10:28
As to the journalistic part of things I don't think it can be hard to write a preview of the game and end with "no bet" or "lean" if there's nothing that jumps out.
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 20 Sep 10 13:04
O only says that because his 2 picks have tanked in a big big way Laugh
By:
orioles
When: 20 Sep 10 13:16
Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished! Silly

It's an interesting idea: that when games are at their most unpredictable, people will make big bets, but it seems rather contradictory. The Vegas linemakers (for example) aren't dummies and sharp players, no matter how sharp, are not imbued with magical powers. If you're suggesting betting dogs in the first couple of weeks is profitable (rather like opposing star pitchers at the beginning of the baseball season) then fair enough, although I've never seen any consistent evidence of the trend. I still maintain that serious bettors will avoid early football games: they're just too unpredictable to invest heavily.

Ultimately, though, we all follow our instincts and experience and decide which way to go. It's all good Happy
By:
orioles
When: 20 Sep 10 13:18
'Big way' is an understatement! Laugh

But to be fair, I did open my annual thread with the caveat that betting early games is a mistake and should be avoided.
By:
Lori
When: 20 Sep 10 14:07
Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished!

Not really suggesting blanket betting all dogs before the event, just the ones that have clear good reasons for being backed (I posted two of these at the sites I was posting at at the times, and I discussed seattle at length in the chatroom prematch too, which is why I chose those three, and not the whole host of other examples)

The whole reason that there's value available early is that the games are unpredictable... you can't win money on the toss of a coin because the odds are known.

I guess it depends where you're getting your picks from. If you're computer modelling along the lines of KUBIAK or something stronger, then I'd imagine that the early games are far better for you. If you're using your eyes and wits and knowledge, then I agree that later in the season is better.

I truly believe that a rounded bettor should be doing both.
By:
Jimmy Diamond
When: 20 Sep 10 18:55
Results from Sunday

1pt  Dallas-7                   @10/11     Lost  -1.00pt
1pt  Jets                       @27/20     Won   +1.35pts
0.5  Indy by 1-6                @7/2       lost  -0.5pts
0.5  Indy by 7-12               @9/2       lost  -0.5pts
2pts Carolina -3                @10/11     lost  -2.00pts
2pts Atlanta -6.5               @10/11     won   +1.82pts
2pts Miami +5.5                 @10/11     won   +1.82pts
1pt  Under 39.5 Miami/vikings   @10/11     won   +0.91pts
1pt  Cleveland                  @10/13     lost  -1.00pts

P/L for day = 0.90pts

Total season p/l = -0.13pts

For what its worth, i agree with Orioles in that there are very few bets you should really be having on NFL in weeks 1 and 2. I found only Arizona in week 1 (won just) and washington last night (lost just). Milham of course doesnt have the luxury of keeping just a watching eye.
By:
GAZMAN
When: 20 Sep 10 20:02
Going back to Rod Studds rugby league picks,he was good last season but this season he has generally been dire
By:
themightymac
When: 20 Sep 10 20:44
Mark Langham in the Racing Post is the worst tipster ever but he`s a good sports writer and has been in the job for years. Point proven.
By:
Princess Purple Guitar
When: 21 Sep 10 01:45
i must admit, I do knock him a bit, but it is hard job to write up the night before when value has gone...i think he should start a thread on here on Tuesday with his proper picks and enjoy the banter...we all put up ours and sometimes good, sometimes great...there to be shot at...but he does have a good job to be fair (I would like it - shame I did a modern geography degree and not journo lol)
By:
themightymac
When: 21 Sep 10 17:18
He used to post regularly when he wrote for the sportsman but all he ever got was dogs abuse. The guy doesn`t need to justify his views to forumists. No point in him posting here. He`s got a good job and is well paid and I say good luck to him. Too many jealous people on here. People hate to see others getting on in this country in all walks of life. Sad but true.
By:
Lori
When: 21 Sep 10 18:55
If you put yourself out there as a tipster and you don't understand the markets you're betting in, then you're going to face criticism, it really is that simple.

It's nothing to do with jealousy, hate or anything like that. It's as simple as pulling up someone who's giving tips that will cost money in the long term. It's not a put down on his journalistic ability, his character as a person or anything else you're trying to turn it into. He's just a bad gambler, or at least if he bets the stuff he posts he is.
By:
Lori
When: 21 Sep 10 19:03
He also tipped

Oakland -3.5 (loss)
Denver -3.5 (win)
Green Bay -13.5 (win)

for a non racing post site this week.
By:
orioles
When: 21 Sep 10 20:35
He`s got a good job and is well paid and I say good luck to him.

Well, I guess that depends upon your definition of 'a good job', 'well paid' and what you understand by  'money for old rope' Grin

It's an interesting point that someone presenting their tips need not justify them: it's one I intend to rely on!
By:
Jimmy Diamond
When: 23 Sep 10 22:21
Milhams pick for monday has not been included as the tip wasnt readable in my edition of the racing post-looked like a printing error.

It just said recomendation New Orlea................... after talking about how they should cover the cap. we'l give him the benfit of the doubt and omit the selection.
By:
Lori
When: 23 Sep 10 23:25
Can't let a 60 point or so loss go unnoticed im afraid Jimmy

http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/racing-post-london-england-the/mi_7999/is_2010_Sept_20/saints-san-fran-nfl/ai_n55288666/
By:
Lori
When: 23 Sep 10 23:26
More like 45 in fairness.
By:
chiefdog
When: 27 Sep 10 13:47
sundays picks

new orleans -3 20/21 2pts  -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt  +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts  +4.78
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts  -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts  -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts  +3.74

+2.42pts

overall p/l +2.19
By:
Lori
When: 27 Sep 10 14:24
new orleans -3 20/21 2pts  -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt  +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts  +1.82
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts  -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts  -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts  +1.73

-2.55 pts

Unless I'm missing something in the way you've listed things.
By:
Lori
When: 27 Sep 10 14:25
1.74 Cinci, sorry
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 27 Sep 10 16:43
Meanwhile a proper tipster tipped

pitts 7pts @ 1.74
miami/ jets overs 10 pts @ 2.2
saints/colts double 5pts @ 2.24
cowboys 4pts @ 2.25
chiefs 4pts @ 2.3

for a 22.38 pt profit

see what this superb tipster tips up next week at WWW.KJBETTING.CO.UK 

Blush
By:
orioles
When: 27 Sep 10 17:22
Will you be tipping those games after they were played too? Devil
By:
Jimmy Diamond
When: 27 Sep 10 18:49
week 3 sunday picks

2pts     NO -3                      @20/21     lost    -2.00
1pt      Indy -5.5                  @10/11     won     +0.91
2pts     Jets +2.5                  @10/11     won     +1.82
2pts     Jets score >16 points      @5/6       won     +1.67
3pts     San Fran -2.5              @10/11     lost    -3.00
2pts     Arizona -4.5               @10/11     lost    -2.00
2pts     Cincinati -3               @20/23     won     +2.61

sunday total   = +0.01pts Laugh

Total season =  -0.12 pts
By:
Lori
When: 27 Sep 10 19:53
2pts     Cincinati -3               @20/23     won     +2.61

Can someone explain to me why everyone's getting different numbers to me on how much this won?
By:
Jimmy Diamond
When: 27 Sep 10 20:03
my apologys lori, ive dropped a b*llock with that one. Was eating as well as typing Laugh

It is actually a +1.74 profit

Sunday total = -0.86

Season total = -0.99
By:
themightymac
When: 28 Sep 10 16:08
Orioles, I`m brilliant at tipping winners after the results too!!

In all fairness to Nilsson Schmilsson - Everybody`s Talkin about this tipster and the Joy his tips have given punters. How have we managed so long Without You.
By:
chiefdog
When: 28 Sep 10 20:33
jeez you're right lori, my maths was shocking. quick calculations in the head never come out right!
By:
Jimmy Diamond
When: 28 Sep 10 22:19
Milhams Monday pick

Green Bay outright 3pts at 4/6

lost -3.00 pts

total season results=  -3.99 points.
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