orioles Joined: 26 Feb 03
Replies: 3674 19 Sep 10 22:52 
Again, I don't want to appear the forum Milham apologist, but no serious bettor (with all due respect to y'all!) bets the first two weeks of the football season. I suspect however, that he wouldn't get that wisdom past his editor, so he's on a bit of a hiding to nothing.

It's Thunderdome Devil


funny that because when you talk to or read about the big sportsbooks in america they have been saying for 2 weeks now that there has been some serious sharp money coming in for the NFL especially as there has been some serious public overreaction to the first weeks games. Sharp punters are ALWAYS around, as there will always be edges or lines to smash into just like the two Dallas lines. BOTH were set way too high and sharps were all over the bears from last tuesday onwards forcing the line down.

the dallas line started out at -9.5 or 9 with a lto of early books which was quickly taken down. didnt it end up closer to 7 by game time>?

dallas were VERY VERY poor on offense pre season and it carried on to the game against washington when they were gash imo. chicago (who i dont have any affinity for in any way shape or form) were imo much better than the bare result showed against detroit the same week. and detroit have showed they arent as bad as a lot think this season in their first two games without winning

therefore imo the line was very wrong.

It's certainly true that money came for the Bears late, whether that indicates the line was 'way too high' is another matter! GL with the Giants, I'm keeping my £2 in my pocket.

its bullshyte basically.. not ridiculing the poster but the post have a vested interest in wanting punters to get winning tips in their paper and to be honest if you cant see why (whether horses or sports and whether following the tipsters or the form guides etc) then you havent a clue.

You're not ridiculing me then effectively say I haven't a clue. Bit of a contradiction really. I wouldn't mind but you have given no argument as to why that is the case.

I stand by what I said, they will not give a winning strategy or identify a profitable approach and the vast majority of their sports tipsters will be doing their brains with no regards whatsoever to their readers. "Dan Childs tipped 10/3 Brechin City on Saturday (but is doing 15% to advised stakes on the season)" doesn't read great does it?*





* I have no idea how Dan Childs is performing, no offence intended.

You have re-inforced my point, they don't want you to win - the Post is for betting shop fodder. Betting shop fodder who do in 15-20% on turnover. The winners, be it pricewise at 25/1 or milham's dart hitting the right side of the handicap, are inconsequential - I could set my ageing dog a task to make selections and be erudite around them to come close to being as successful long term.

Don't often disagree with you O sir, but have to here.

The start of the season is where some of the really serious guys have a bigger edge over the linesmakers as it's the time where's there's less data to compile a proper mathematical line and so accurate projections are more difficult to get hold of. (Even linesmakers can make projections based on 12 weeks data, it becomes a much easier job)

I do agree though that sharp players are around all season long, it's a matter of approaching each week in a different matter.

In baseball for instance, I know of more than one person (me being one) who have to shut down at midseason as the current season's info becomes more relevant - and I'm better working from projections like PECOTA as a base. That doesn't mean that other people will have to shut down during that period, and it's likely that some do the exact opposite to me and come into their own during the second half of the season.

I don't think it's correct to rule out weeks one and two as betting grounds. The Chiefs and Seahawks bets week one this season and the Falcons 2-3 seasons ago (2/1 at home to Detroit) were some of the better value bets in ages.

I can understand that people who place bets based on what they see rather than numbers shut down early in the season, nothing wrong with that either. For me the key is to (attempt to) slide seamlessly between projection as the season progresses.

As to the journalistic part of things I don't think it can be hard to write a preview of the game and end with "no bet" or "lean" if there's nothing that jumps out.

Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished!

It's an interesting idea: that when games are at their most unpredictable, people will make big bets, but it seems rather contradictory. The Vegas linemakers (for example) aren't dummies and sharp players, no matter how sharp, are not imbued with magical powers. If you're suggesting betting dogs in the first couple of weeks is profitable (rather like opposing star pitchers at the beginning of the baseball season) then fair enough, although I've never seen any consistent evidence of the trend. I still maintain that serious bettors will avoid early football games: they're just too unpredictable to invest heavily.

Ultimately, though, we all follow our instincts and experience and decide which way to go. It's all good

Well, Lori, I always enjoy it when people call a game a week, or even 2 years, after it has finished!

Not really suggesting blanket betting all dogs before the event, just the ones that have clear good reasons for being backed (I posted two of these at the sites I was posting at at the times, and I discussed seattle at length in the chatroom prematch too, which is why I chose those three, and not the whole host of other examples)

The whole reason that there's value available early is that the games are unpredictable... you can't win money on the toss of a coin because the odds are known.

I guess it depends where you're getting your picks from. If you're computer modelling along the lines of KUBIAK or something stronger, then I'd imagine that the early games are far better for you. If you're using your eyes and wits and knowledge, then I agree that later in the season is better.

I truly believe that a rounded bettor should be doing both.

Going back to Rod Studds rugby league picks,he was good last season but this season he has generally been dire

i must admit, I do knock him a bit, but it is hard job to write up the night before when value has gone...i think he should start a thread on here on Tuesday with his proper picks and enjoy the banter...we all put up ours and sometimes good, sometimes great...there to be shot at...but he does have a good job to be fair (I would like it - shame I did a modern geography degree and not journo lol)

If you put yourself out there as a tipster and you don't understand the markets you're betting in, then you're going to face criticism, it really is that simple.

It's nothing to do with jealousy, hate or anything like that. It's as simple as pulling up someone who's giving tips that will cost money in the long term. It's not a put down on his journalistic ability, his character as a person or anything else you're trying to turn it into. He's just a bad gambler, or at least if he bets the stuff he posts he is.

He`s got a good job and is well paid and I say good luck to him.

Well, I guess that depends upon your definition of 'a good job', 'well paid' and what you understand by  'money for old rope'

It's an interesting point that someone presenting their tips need not justify them: it's one I intend to rely on!

Can't let a 60 point or so loss go unnoticed im afraid Jimmy

http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/racing-post-london-england-the/mi_7999/is_2010_Sept_20/saints-san-fran-nfl/ai_n55288666/

sundays picks

new orleans -3 20/21 2pts  -2
indy -5.5 10/11 1pt  +0.9
ny jets +2.5 10/11 2 pts  +4.78
san fran -2.5 10/11 3pts  -3
arizona -4.5 10/11 2pts  -2
cincy -3 20/23 2pts  +3.74

+2.42pts

overall p/l +2.19

1.74 Cinci, sorry

Will you be tipping those games after they were played too?

2pts     Cincinati -3               @20/23     won     +2.61

Can someone explain to me why everyone's getting different numbers to me on how much this won?

Orioles, I`m brilliant at tipping winners after the results too!!

In all fairness to Nilsson Schmilsson - Everybody`s Talkin about this tipster and the Joy his tips have given punters. How have we managed so long Without You.

Milhams Monday pick

Green Bay outright 3pts at 4/6

lost -3.00 pts

total season results=  -3.99 points.