No Harry , im all over Colts -1.5 & SF 49

I will probably never type this statement ever again but I think Buffalo, Cleveland and Kansas City are great bets this weekend.

Nice write up sfc and welcome to the discussion.
Blimey lori you really are loving my chiefs this season. With you on the spread more than ml though imo.

Backed unders every game. Always makes a profit 1st weekend of season.

Hi guys, right, let's get this show on the road......

If you remember from last year, I tended to pick on one or two games rather than all of them, as I find too many cooks - well you know the rest.  Well, this year I'm trying to expand it and look at more games, tendencies, history, and as always, obviously, form.  So, here we go.

This week's fancies:


Cincinnati (3.00) @ (1.46) New England

These aren't your father's Bungals.  All of a sudden they've developed into a hard nosed, tough football team (having all those convicts obviously goes some way) - maybe they've seen their divisional opposition and decided imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?  Whatever it is, it seems the light has come on in South-West Ohio and they look like being big dark-horses this year.

They go up against a Pats team that although has seemingly more weapons than ever on offense, which is something considering the record setting year they had in 2007, the defense is a major question.  They have some elite players in Wilfork, Ty Warren and even Leigh Bodden who is an under-rated and unheralded corner - but two of those are gone for the year on IR.  They have some promising youngsters aside from that, but that's all they are right now - promising youngsters.  With Warren (arguably the best run stopping 3-4 End in the league) out up front, and Bodden out in the secondary, you wonder if there's enough leadership and experience to overcome tough opponents like the Bengals.  And today I don't think there is.

The Pats run D suffered a spectacular meltdown against the Ravens during the divisional round of the Playoffs last year, and apart from adding the tough looking Brandon Spikes to play alongside Mayo, the run D has probably got worse.  That's bad news against a rejuvenated Cedric Benson and his talented back up Bernard Scott.  That Bengals O-line is big and nasty, and will probably have their way against the Pats D-line.  Add in Carson Palmer (still one of the top QB's in the sport for my money), and the always fun to watch Chad Ochocinco and you have a good all round threat.  Added to with the 'temperamental' Terrell Owens, and a player who I think is flying under the radar for OROTY, Jordan Shipley who might have the Wes Welker effect on the Bengals Offense.  The Pats secondary is very very green.

On the opposite side of the ball, it should be a good battle.  The Pats, as I mentioned earlier, have some exciting looking weapons (wait until you get a load of Tate, Gronkowski and Hernandez), the run game is still a major question and the O-line looks very vulnerable with All-World LG Logan Mankins holding out and stating a desire to never play for the Franchise again.  Enjoy your career in Oakland Logan.  The tackles look good (Vollmer was a legit contender for OROTY last year), but inside those there are big questions, and no doubt the Bengals will be trying plenty of inside rushes and stunts (and they do have a great pass rush) to get to #12.  A word of warning though - the Pats haven't lost a home opener under Belichick and Brady, and have won the last two against the Bengals, although granted, they only face each other once every three years normally.

Bengals 27-17 Pats

Just a note for reference - I'll try and do some thoughts on the individual markets throughout the season as always, although there are none on offer for this game on Betfair (at the moment anyway).



Indianapolis (1.89) @ (2.08) Houston


Don't get sucked in by the Texans offensive abilities - this is the best price on a favourite you'll see all day.  The Colts will still be smarting over their defeat in the Big Dance back in February, and you know they'll be aiming to get the season off to a good start, and there's no better flat-track bully in the league, especially against their divisional opponents.  The Colts are perennial favourites for the South, and it's not hard to see why.

That's not to say the Texans aren't a good team.  They registered their first ever winning season last year, and are without a doubt a team on the rise (although to be fair we have been saying that for some time) and do like finally primed for taking off, although a couple of 'matters' in the off-season might delay that yet further.  And I think that will be on show today.

Just when we though Manning had gotten over that choker tag, he reminds us all that no matter how talented he is, fate somehow hangs around him like the drunk in the takeaway that vomits all over your brand new Prada slip-ons rather than the Rockport's owned by the chav next to you in the queue.  He's still one of the top 5-8 QB's of all time mind, and he's p*ssed.  With Gonzalez back to add to the burgeoning talent they possess at receiver, they look stacked.  The run game might not be the best, but it always does enough to be effective and help the passing attack.  The Texans D is missing a key cog in the suspended DROTY Brian Cushing, and although Super Mario is still there, Cushing was the key to a lot defensively last year.  Without him, they don't look as solid, and with the problems in the secondary (none of their corners has been with the team longer than two years, and they will be starting at least one rookie), you don't see how they can stop the Colts.

When flipping the coin, on the face of things the Colts defense looks similar to the Texans - talented up front with a superb pass rush, but youth in the defensive backfield.  It's all about systems though - the Colts have proved time and again they can plug nobodies in to key positions and get good production.  Their D receives a lot of criticism, and it really isn't warranted a lot of the time.  And they'll always find a way to stop the opposing passing game when it's needed most, even if they look like being shredded at certain points.

The Colts have won the last 6 and almost always score 30+ against the Texans - and it's always high-scoring at the Reliant Stadium.  There hasn't been under 51 points scored in this fixture since 2004, and in fact the points total has been going up each year.  The Texans almost beat the Colts in the corresponding match-up last year, and you fancy it to be another high-scoring shoot-out, but if it is, there will only be one winner.

Indianapolis 37-30 Houston

Get on that points line - over 46.5 is at 1.89.  That's like buying money.  Remember what I said - the last 5 have seen over 50 points, and the total has gone up over the last 4 years - 58, 51, 54, 58, 62.



Detroit Lions (3.5) @ (1.36) Chicago Bears

No, I haven't lost it.  I see the Lions improving dramatically this year, not quite along the same lines as the Falcons and Dolphins a couple of years ago who went from top 3 draft picks to the Playoffs, but I do see them hitting the 7-9, 8-8 mark.  Don't under-estimate the addition of a Franchise Quarterback, it's the single biggest building block a Franchise can have, and with the addition of more weapons offensive and defensive (which I'll touch on shortly), they could (and in my eyes should) be this year's biggest surprise package.

As for the Bears - well.  I've just mentioned the effect a a Franchise QB can have, and the Bears certainly have one - but there's no structure round him, and certainly no weapons for him to exploit.  They don't seem to know how to use Cutler effectively, and with them throwing Draft picks away like no-one's business, it seems it will be another year or two before he has any help.  Defensively, the big addition they made in the summer will improve one part of the line, but there are just too many questions other than that, and you have to wonder why they are very very heavy favourites against a team that everyone can see is improving.

Now, I'm not saying the Bears being favourites is wrong, heck no, the Lions haven't proven anything yet, but 1.36?!  That is begging to be opposed.  Stafford looks like a good QB in the making (injuries hurt him last year) and he has one elite target in Calvin Johnson to throw at.  They could yet be the new "Manning to Harrison".  Add in the precocious Brandon Pettigrew and the talented Tony Scheffler, and there's some ability there.  Not to mention the addition of Jahvid Best.  I think that gives them the edge over a Bears D struggling for talent and identity.  No doubt Peppers will improve things up front, but Tommie Harris hasn't been the same since his bumper contract 2 years ago, whilst Mark Anderson is very inconsistent, whilst Alex Brown has moved on to the Saints.  The LB's are okay as it stands, but if Briggs goes down things will go south.  The secondary has to worry every Bears fan, I loved the Major Wright pick but I don't think he'll be truly ready for another year or so, and the rest looks horrid.  They might escape against a young Lions offense, but against the Packers and Vikings, they'll be in severe trouble.

Looking at how the other sides of the ball match up, and things don't really improve for the Bears.  The addition of Ndamukong Suh for the Lions gives them a legit Haynesworth/Sapp-type in the middle who will be a force in every phase and on every down.  Some of you know I'm a big Draftnik, and in my 7 (hardly man and boy stuff granted) years of watching the College game, I've not seen anyone dominate opposing O-lines like he did.  If you've not seen him, try and get highlights of the Nebraska v Texas game last year.  They've quietly assembled a good looking front 4 this summer, Corey Williams should be the perfect foil for Suh, whilst Vanden Bosch brings vast experience and leadership.  And don't forget Cliff Avril, who has had two very impressive years in the Motor City.  They go up against a Bears O-line that is in turmoil.  Olin Kreutz has struggled, whilst Chris Williams and Frank Omiyale have the Billy Graham effect on people.  That's bad news when your QB already has a penchant for throwing Interceptions.  If the Bears can get the passing game going though, they'll have some joy against a young and inexperienced secondary.

Detroit 24-21 Chicago

The Bears have won the last 4, but the Lions swept them in 2007, and I can see them winning at least one game between the two this year.  It tends not to be high-scoring, so I'd probably stay away from the points market.  The best market is probably "Lions +5.5" - you can get the Lions at 2.1 currently.



Carolina (3.3) @ (1.42) New York

Whilst the Giants are a bit shorter than I'd like, I don't see the Panthers beating them.  I like what the Giants have done in the off-season, they've improved the defense with some nice additions, and haven't lost anyone offensively.  Which might seem silly to say, but in the always fluid world of the NFL, it can be big.

The Panthers meanwhile have had some of the most upheavel of any Franchise in the off-season.  They've dumped svereal players from both sides of the ball, including much-maligned QB Jake "pick 6" Delhomme.  The losses defensively especially will hurt, their D-line has some serious serious questions against it, and with them heading north to play the Giants, that's a worry.

You have to like the Giants.  Eli gets some stick, but he's dependable and in my eyes, under-rated.  Sadly his every slip or misadventure is magnified in the most sports crazy city in North America.  He's got some nice weapons nowadays too, Steve Smith (not that one) is as dangerous a receiver as there is in the NFC, he'll pick open the weak points and his route-running is phenomenal, whilst his hands are like glue.  Outside, Nicks and Manningham are a good looking tandem, especially the former, whilst Boss is a good TE - not flashy, but a good blocker and very dependable when asked to run routes.  The run game is what it's really all about for the Giants though, and although Erath, Wind and Fire has been broken, up, two elements remain, and they have a nice looking third member in Ware.  I just don't see how the Panthers D-line can contain the run game whilst at the same time getting a good pass rush against one of the better O-line's in the league, which isn't good news for the secondary.  I do like the Linebackers though, and I think that's as good a trio as there is in the league in terms of 4-3 defenses.

When you look at the other units involved, it's decidedly advantage Giants.  The Giants D-line matches up well with the Panthers O-line, whilst the LB's are solid and the secondary pretty good.  The arrival of Rolle will help, even if he's over-paid.  That Panthers run game will cause problems, but with Stewart likely out, it's left to Williams to carry the load, and he's going to be running at a big front seven.  Matt Moore looked good last year when he replaced Delhomme, and he's going to be pushed by the talented Jimmy Clausen, but with only Steve Smith (yes, that one) causing problems for the Giants in the passing game, it should be a good night for the secondary.

Panthers 10 - 27 Giants

In terms of individual markets, there's only a few really worth looking at, the first one is Ahmad Bradshaw to score the first TD of the game at 7.0, whilst  I quite fancy Eli to run one in himself at 9.7.  The bet of the day is probably the points/handicap double - Giants -7.5/under 40.5 points can be had at 4.6.....



Hope you enjoy folks, and your bets are lucky.

Bengals +4.5 for me. Good luck all.

fcuk off matt ryan u pr1ck

Amazing scenes.

Falcons win toss and will recieve.

i just got screwed badly on the lions perfect td, waved off last 25 secs by some crazy rule. Ah well you win some lose some.

What the frig do I know   Almost had the Lions (hit on the +5.5), hit on the points in the game at Reliant,

Quick thoughts on the late games....

Fancy the Rams to beat the Cards, Packers to win in Philly, 49ers go to town on the Seahawks.

Doggster, out.

pitts 1st n 10 on the 50
game over i's say

You can't back a streaky team like the Falcons on the road in Pittsburgh without questioning yourself at the very least.

doggy
wether their streaky or not the game was there for the taking

Rap Up,


SAINT'S ............. WON  " I BELIEVE IN A SAINT'S DYNASTY "
leaves the Buccaneers only team in the NFC South to levell peg.

Ariziona ............ WON
Atlanta ............. Lost you know why
NY Giant's .......... WON , hamerring the panther's
Denver .............. Lost
Greenbay ............ WON
Miami ............... WON
Tennessee ........... WON
& for the Gambler's
Seatle .............. WON , Really Hammerring the 49'ers Gambler's are SUPER HAPPY [:D]  

13th / 14th.

Baltimore
& Why Not KC = Kansas City

if i was you, ill would pick Jets today! jets will smash the ravens...

17-20 .

good call nevertoolate. i was way off - only 5 touches for stewart! seems like john fox forgot the only thing they can do is run the ball.