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beggster1
06 Apr 10 20:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 299 | Blogger: beggster1's blog
Any thoughts on Baltimore v Rays tonight?

gonna be lumping on the Rays personally, any reason why i should tread carefully???
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Report ctian666 April 6, 2010 10:26 PM BST
Millwood pitches better in regular play than spring training
Report grahamwestleyisthemessiah April 6, 2010 10:47 PM BST
Rays have had plenty of pre-season hype and the public cant shovel enough money on them. But they are way too short at 1.49. Millwood is a decent pitcher and the O's upset the Yankees in their season-opener last year. Id be tempted to lay the Rays at that price.
Report orioles April 6, 2010 10:51 PM BST
The Rays are 1.53 to win su.

Road favourites, when they win the game, win by more than 1 run 79% of the time. So if you must bet short favourites on the road, bet the runline.

Uncle Joe has the Rays available at 2.15 on the Runline.
Report grahamwestleyisthemessiah April 6, 2010 11:08 PM BST
eH,? tHE rAYS ARE AT HOME
Report orioles April 6, 2010 11:50 PM BST
So they are, my apologies. Very embarrassing. I put it down to old age, opening day excitement and stupidity!

If you're still interested in my ideas; the home favourite's relevant stats drop to 70%, so the bet becomes less attractive from that point of view.

As for pure analysis, Millwood doesn't do well at Tropicana Field and stunk it up in Spring training. In contrast, Tampa Bay have been ripping it up. With Roberts banged up, if I was to bet the game, I'd probably still take the Rays on the runline, but maybe not for the full £2.
Report m666 April 7, 2010 12:00 AM BST
Millwood has a 6+ ERA in Tampa, where as Shields is usually an ace at home. There are worse 1.5 shots about.
Report regular joe April 7, 2010 12:04 AM BST
My ridiculously complicated spreadsheet predicted Tampa to be 1.51 so I agree the odds are about right. Minnesota are my bet of the night.
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 12:04 AM BST
rays look too short to me and have laid 1.5
Report BostSox Law April 7, 2010 12:18 AM BST
Have to be on the Rays even at that price ....agree that Shields should provide a commanding performance at home
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 12:57 AM BST
1-0 O's Adam Jones solo jack
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 12:58 AM BST
Shields pitch count is high already
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:00 AM BST
cant believe im able to lay off my 3.0 back at 2.0 with just a 1 run lead

Baltimore (K Millwood)

£128.52

Tampa Bay (J Shields)

£0.00
Report Mr Lizard April 7, 2010 1:01 AM BST
its great baseball innit sb :D
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:02 AM BST
love it
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:05 AM BST
base runners for rays
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:08 AM BST
oooh thrown out at home
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 1:11 AM BST
2-0 O's Luke Scott solo jack
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:12 AM BST
nice
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 1:12 AM BST
chasing Shields out of the game
Report RDFC April 7, 2010 1:12 AM BST
I've given up on my TB-1.5 bet. :(
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 1:13 AM BST
you aint seen the O's bullpen yet
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:13 AM BST
2nd and 3rd, 0 outs :D
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:14 AM BST
hate popups
Report Mr.Ventham April 7, 2010 1:18 AM BST
Evening, just laid some balt at 1.3s, far too low with whats to come pitching wise!


boom red sox lead 3-1!
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:20 AM BST
what a chance gone there for balt to bust it open
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:20 AM BST
2nd and 3rd, 0 outs and nothing lol
Report Mr Lizard April 7, 2010 1:21 AM BST
Thats when i laid swindon, with men on 2nd and 3rd reckon at 4-0 they should be 1.25 so not giving away to much esp if they didn't score ;-)
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:22 AM BST
yeah i wasn't watching market tut
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 1:22 AM BST
shields has thrown 75 pitches already, they usually only throw between 90-100 pitches on their first couple of starts
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:45 AM BST
1-2
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 1:53 AM BST
another solo jack
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 1:54 AM BST
3-1
Report Only-the-Brave April 7, 2010 1:54 AM BST
rays lucky that these home runs have only cost them 1run a time. Think they will still win this. Yankees lead the redsox 4-3 now.
Report RDFC April 7, 2010 1:55 AM BST
Ok now I've given up on the -1.5. Thought TB might have had a chance after that last inning but that's probably just done it in. :(
Report RDFC April 7, 2010 1:55 AM BST
95 pitches and Shields is still in there! Get him out!
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 2:05 AM BST
2-3
Report Mr.Ventham April 7, 2010 2:07 AM BST
this is what rays backers want to see,millwood being spoken too,get that BP in :D
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 2:09 AM BST
big inning on the way
Report RDFC April 7, 2010 2:11 AM BST
Double play, the worst possible outcome. :(
Report ctian666 April 7, 2010 2:13 AM BST
7th and 8th key innings for the rays, O's closer can get the job done
Report Mr.Ventham April 7, 2010 2:34 AM BST
Rays really are appalling!
Report Mr Lizard April 7, 2010 3:14 AM BST
rays do the biz finally!
Report SwindonBoy April 7, 2010 3:15 AM BST
lol what a disgrace BO are though, 2nd and 3rd 0 outs in the 9th and cant pick up any runs deserve to get stung by a walk off

cost me plenty**s
Report RDFC April 7, 2010 3:17 AM BST
Note to self: Don't bet on HCs.

I think I told myself the same thing last year, wish I had the guts to back TB at 6 rather than the measly 2.58 to cover my HC loss. :(

Well done the winners that had faith all along, I know I certainly didn't. :)
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