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odwyer1980
23 Feb 08 23:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 11 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 404 | Blogger: odwyer1980's blog
Throughout the season, I'll be posting my MLB tips in here for matches that I see as good value bets.

If you're crying out for a dabble on the outright market, look no further then NYY. It's their last season at Yankee Stadium and with them not winning a WS since 2000, they are long due a win.

Not only do their fans demands it, but also their owners and shareholders.

Winning is not an option for this team. You can get them on the outright @ 9's with the option to trade out when they trade much lower in the Summer.

The Boston Red Sox are a lay for certain. There's no way they'll win it again. Altough Big Papi will hopefully be his legendary-self.

Spring Training matches next week, which are equivalent to pre-season football matches over here, for those who don't know. Good for fun bets, but that's all imo. Total lottery and very frustrating.

Spring Training LIVE On NASN:

Minnesota vs NY Yankees - Wednesday, 5 March 6.00pm

LA Dodgers vs Boston - Thursday, 6 March 6.00pm

NY Mets vs Cleveland - Friday, 7 March 6.00pm

Washington vs Detroit - Tuesday, 18 March 5.00pm

For those unsure......

MLB.tv is worth getting as you can see every match, albeit on a 30-60 second delay.

$89.95 for the year which is about 50.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?c_id=mlb

NASN on channel 417 is another must.

MLB UK Supporters Club: http://www.baseballfan.co.uk/
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Report Proud to be a Northener April 2, 2008 11:48 AM BST
I went out on a limb from the start of a MLB match.

Yeah,tipping a 2s on chance,really went out on a limb there Odwyer :^0
Report Proud to be a Northener April 2, 2008 12:08 PM BST
Realise you are busy Odywer so just for the record;

Running total to $100 units

-$1350

long way togo yet.Youll come through.
Report cause and effect April 2, 2008 12:17 PM BST
Hi PTBAN... I checked the scores this morning.. quite tight now.. you got 6 points on me :) and MM way behind.. fecked his picks up and now has no trades :D
Report Proud to be a Northener April 2, 2008 12:19 PM BST
Its actually

-$1450 but whats $100 between mates :^0

I know cause but you relying on the man from japan v heavily :D
Report cause and effect April 2, 2008 12:23 PM BST
Yep.. Have to.. For that price he's a bargain imo... Won't be trading anybody for a month at least unless their value's gone through the roof.. rack up my trades and save em for June. ;)
Report Proud to be a Northener April 2, 2008 12:24 PM BST
Also mate,I dont get that scoring.
Betancourt...4/5 ,2 doubles,1 rbi,1 run,only 38 pts ?
what mores he expected to do :^0
Report cause and effect April 2, 2008 12:26 PM BST
You get points ribbies and HRs, SB, and minus for a 0fer..
Report curlywurly April 2, 2008 12:49 PM BST
Leave the poor man alone.
Stick at it Odwyer
You're the best
You will crack it soon
I can feel it.



Can you up the stakes a bit, my kids want to go to Australia this year. Ta
Report odwyer1980 April 3, 2008 11:44 AM BST
Tip 5

KC Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Detroit @ 1.55

I dont usually touch teams that are on the verge of a 3 game sweep, nor considering what I said previously about touching teams from the off-set, but if anyone wants a decent chase bet at some modest odds, consider the following:

Detroit Tigers with one of the best teams in MLB have lost their first 2 games at home to the Derby County of Baseball - Kansas City Royals.

Detroit have one of the best line-ups and are fancied to do well come October.

Well, my basis is - surely they cannot get swept 3-0 by KC at home!

They lost the first game 5-4
They lost the second game 4-0


My advice is, theyll finally get a home win tonight and get their season off to a start.

Jeremy Bonderman, pitching for Detroit is pretty good but Zac Greinke is no mug for Kansas either though.

Those looking for a relatively decent chase-bet might want to look at this.

From Tigers.com

DET: RHP Jeremy Bonderman (11-9, 501 ERA in 2007)
For what it's worth anymore with an improved Royals club, Bonderman has more wins against Kansas City (nine) than against any other team in his career. He just about dominated them in 2007, posting a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings over three starts, one of them a victory and two others resulting in no-decisions.

KC: RHP Zack Greinke (7-3, 3.69 ERA in 2007)
Greinke is a different type of pitcher than Bannister and Gil Meche, Monday's starter, so it remains to be seen what he'll take from their success over the first two games. Still, Greinke has had plenty of success against Detroit in his own right, posting a 6-3 record and a 3.40 ERA over 13 career appearances, 10 of them starts.

Tidbits
The Tigers were shut out three times last season. Each time, they won their next game. ... Ivan Rodriguez is 8-for-18 with a home run and four RBIs for his career against Greinke. But then, he has more hits against the Royals than any other active Major Leaguer. ... Following Thursday's game, Leyland will head to Joe Louis Arena and drop the ceremonial first puck prior to the Red Wings' game against the Blue Jackets.
Report Proud to be a Northener April 3, 2008 11:50 AM BST
Win or lose horrid price mate.
Report odwyer1980 April 3, 2008 12:02 PM BST
PTBN, it wouldn't be a horrible price if it wins, as it's a winning bet.

It's a good price imo. Detroit at home - what more do you expect?!

The market sees KC as I do, fodder waiting to happen.
Report cause and effect April 3, 2008 12:07 PM BST
LOL... No.. I don't see KC that way.. They've got some very nice bats in Gordon and Butler with Guillen also useful so not a bad 3-4-5 punch and a nice pitching 1-2 punch. the name Luke Hochevar is the one to look out for. But you're right though.. Don't see Tigers getting swept but stranger things have happened.. Crazy price to bet on for a single.. I'd look for summat to double up with to reduce the juice.
Report Thompson April 3, 2008 1:12 PM BST
Thats a terrible price mate. Bonderman is the definition of unreliable and Grienke quite capable of shutting down a lineup - i would steer clear or lay detroit.
Report joey_boy April 3, 2008 3:10 PM BST
i've layed detroit in this - looking to do some trading
Report F1Fan855 April 3, 2008 3:39 PM BST
It would (or at least could) still be a horrible price if it wins. Because the price is given and taken before we know whether it wins or not and reflects the odds of it happening.

eg. I give you odds of 1.01 on Detroit winning this game. They win. That does not mean the odds were good as Detroit certainly would not win this game 99% of the time!

Also, please get this gamblers fallacy out of your head about "they've lost two in a row and can't possibly get swept"...today is an independent event and the fact that they lost two has nothing to do with it. (Unless you argue that they will try harder to avoid the sweep or something, but they should be giving 100% anyway and this would certainly have a negligible impact).
Report tobermory April 3, 2008 7:12 PM BST
:0
Report gjohn101 April 3, 2008 7:31 PM BST
What i'd like to know is where is john now, when its all gone t!ts up for his followers?? shudn't he be here in the trenches with his loyal troops, helping them find a way out of the mire???
c'mon John...your followers need you. Dont desert them in this, their hour of need!!!
Report Proud to be a Northener April 3, 2008 8:01 PM BST
Rancid Odwyer.Stinking rotten selection.
Report joey_boy April 3, 2008 8:10 PM BST
hey im 2/2 so far this year on baseball
Report joey_boy April 3, 2008 8:12 PM BST
maybe i should become the new tipster
Report cause and effect April 3, 2008 8:45 PM BST
LOL.. Oh dear :)
Report MoneyBagger April 3, 2008 9:15 PM BST
Odds on this thread being here in six months time?
Report Rathbone April 3, 2008 11:17 PM BST
I'm doing my absolute insides following your advices. Is this some sort of sick joke from the Ladcrooks PR team?

Call yourself a Tipster, O'Dwyer, as they say in Yonkers, "You suck".
Report Cyanide Sid April 3, 2008 11:29 PM BST
Cyanide Sid 19 Mar 01:22


i can see there's gonna be some fun this year with this thread :)
Report Knight Rider April 4, 2008 12:07 AM BST
This isn't going well is it John
Report Proud to be a Northener April 4, 2008 4:51 AM BST
:^0
Report The Tennis Oracle April 4, 2008 5:53 AM BST
Top tipping John.
Report The Tennis Oracle April 4, 2008 5:58 AM BST
2/5 average odds 1.17 or something.

Not pretty, but will inevitably get better.

Same theory as the one applied to your losing last detroit bet.

In case you didn't realise...........

It is not inevitable that it will get better.

:^0 off to the job centre O'Dear, mother is getting impatient ;)
Report odwyer1980 April 5, 2008 9:42 AM BST
Tip 6

White Sox @ Detroit 20:55pm

Detroit @ 1.67

Detroit have gone 0-4 since starting the season and as you can see, have pretty much haunted me, as I have tipped them to do well.

However, with their future ace on the mound tonight against the White Sox (Dontrelle Willis) they'll make it 5th time lucky.

They will win sooner or later and everything points towards tonight being their first success. White Sox won the first game of the series yesterday 8-5 and have a hittable Gavin Floyd pitching tonight.

The reason they've been useless is because of an awful bullpen and terrible hitting, no thanks to Ordonez, who is big time off-form.

Detroit have been toilet so far, but it's impossible for an MLB to not win a game sooner or later. What do I base them winning this on? The fact that they are due a win - which applies in MLB in this situation and the massive fact that they're one of the favourites to win the whole thing from the start.

The 0-4 record looks likely to end tonight.

Dontrelle Willis is trustworthy when on his game and Detroit should get a hatful of hits tonight against this rookie MLB pitcher.

Bet on Detroit @ 1.67 as these are as good of oods as you'll see.

It should be a 1 way cruise to 1.01.

CWS: RHP Gavin Floyd (0-0, -.-- ERA)

Blessed with the raw stuff to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, according to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, Floyd might finally have the confidence to match his talent. The right-hander started to make strides in the right direction at the end of last year, finishing with a 3.41 ERA over his last six starts and holding opposing hitters to a .269 average. Floyd needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the park after allowing 17 home runs last year in 70 innings pitched, including 10 at U.S. Cellular Field. But Floyd put up strong numbers against Detroit in 2007, posting a 2.66 ERA in 23 2/3 innings, making him a strong matchup for this particular opening start.

DET: LHP Dontrelle Willis (0-0, -.-- ERA)

Willis will make his American League debut under the spotlight of a home crowd and a FOX regional broadcast, starting what he hopes is a rebound campaign following season highs in losses and ERA during his final season for Florida last year. He pitched through command issues in Spring Training, but the mid-90s mph velocity on his fastball gives the Tigers reason for encouragement.

Tidbits

A.J. Pierzynski, hitting .529 during his four-game hitting streak to start the season, will give way to Toby Hall for Saturday's afternoon game. Guillen wants to rest Pierzynski before playing him Sunday night, and in Monday afternoon's home opener. "I'll be more than happy to let him have Dontrelle tomorrow," said Pierzynski of Hall ... Bobby Jenks' second save this season gives him 83 since 2006, and 89 for his career. The total of 83 ranks third behind Trevor Hoffman and Francisco Rodriguez in that three-season span ... Carlos Quentin has the only career home run off of Willis among White Sox hitters.
Report Thompson April 5, 2008 9:48 AM BST
another shocking tip, why no odds against?
Report cause and effect April 5, 2008 9:56 AM BST
OMG.. you never learn.. was just thinking Brewers -1.5 and Chisox were the early leans for me... You're bound to win one, so i'll sit this game out.. Think I'll get plenty of entertainment on here alone ;)GL..
Report gustav April 5, 2008 11:29 AM BST
I think the Sox will win again, a team transformed from last year. Dotel and Linebrink have made a big difference to a Bullpen that was in meltdown last year. Also they've brought in a couple of good on base guys in Cabrera and Swisher, the other bats will always hit lots of homers. I can see a lot of production from this team over the season.
Report Proud to be a Northener April 5, 2008 11:33 AM BST
This thread is useless without pictures .
Report gustav April 5, 2008 11:33 AM BST
or pitchers
Report Proud to be a Northener April 5, 2008 11:36 AM BST
:^0
Report Thompson April 5, 2008 11:39 AM BST
Gustav - CWS are my only preseason back on the WS markets this year
Report Proud to be a Northener April 5, 2008 11:42 AM BST
Pity they are resting AJ today but still,another fantastic value selection from the forum shrewdie :D
Report skybluesam April 5, 2008 3:13 PM BST
How much profit is this thread in please?
Report Proud to be a Northener April 5, 2008 3:48 PM BST
-$1650 to $100 units,not bad going to be fair
Report No Chatname Specified April 5, 2008 3:50 PM BST
I suppose Detroit have to win one eventually.
Report BenSprocket. April 5, 2008 3:51 PM BST
Law of averages apparently, Tai. ;-)
Report Proud to be a Northener April 5, 2008 3:52 PM BST
Tai,that fatal day last June I bet you cannot believe what a fool you wasted so much time on :^0
Report skybluesam April 5, 2008 4:05 PM BST
odwyer, what is today's bet please? I understand you are the North American forum shrewdie
Report skyblues April 5, 2008 4:11 PM BST
sb sam crap to come away with nothing today and the saints winning, long way from being safe yet we are. need a big performance next sat at home.
Report skybluesam April 5, 2008 4:12 PM BST
Yeah, not as gutted today though as was kinda not really expecting a result. Was more disappointed on Tuesday to not close it out against Wednesday. That would have put some real distance between us and them.
Report skyblues April 5, 2008 4:16 PM BST
yeah wed game could turn out very bad for us, all depends on barnsleys games in hand now and sheff wed next game in hand.

Colchester a massive away game for us.
Report The Tennis Oracle April 6, 2008 7:07 AM BST
O'Dear :^0
Report thetitan April 6, 2008 9:40 AM BST
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
Report cause and effect April 6, 2008 10:48 AM BST
No comment... YOU PLONKER..
Report b&h April 6, 2008 1:29 PM BST
.
Report Knight Rider April 6, 2008 2:11 PM BST
I'm starting to wonder if John really is a pro after all.
Report MoneyBagger April 6, 2008 3:36 PM BST
today's tip please?
Report Proud to be a Northener April 6, 2008 3:40 PM BST
please tip Detroit
Report skybluesam April 6, 2008 4:29 PM BST
No bet today O'Dwyer?
Report odwyer1980 April 7, 2008 10:29 AM BST
My record here stinks like Magglio Ordonez at the plate basically.

Detroit are now 0-6 which kind of rubs it in. This team on paper is nothing like the Tigers team that lost over 100 games in 2003 either.

Even though I've mentioned it about 20 times already in this thread and others, betting on MLB matches from the start is a lottery - but is the most exciting in sport in my opinion. It can lead you to the poor house if no strategy is used.

Last year I went for about 3/4 months without losing an MLB bet. That as because I never made one bet from the start of a match.

All in all, I've commit my own errors of

1) betting on MLB matches from the start
2) Listened to some dodgy forumites about upping the ante of these tips - mainly because they want to see a car crash sooner or later.

With regards to Tip 2 - a 3 run lead was never enough; Detroit have lost two 3-0 leads going into the 5th already this season.

Read my Baseball betting potential thread, where I state that betting from the offset of an MLB match is a lottery that can lead you to the poor house. All in all, I commit my own errors.

Yesterday, I bet on Detroit for the 5th time this year (out of 6), and they lost. That was my last bet on MLB from the start of a match this season. I will not be participating in 50/50 events this year and nor would I recommend anymore bets on here that are not in-play. The novelty of the new season has gone, and shown you how difficult it is to predict this game. You might as well enter Ladbrokes and play that red and black balls game, where either red or blacks win. That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50.

Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01.

Another factor to take notice of is to wait before the line ups for each team have been announced about 1 hour before the first pitch. Very important factor which I have gone against myself in this thread due to getting carried away with the excitement of the new season.

Personally, Im going to give MLB betting a rest for a week now and start again on the 14th with my old trustworthy conservative method.
Report cause and effect April 7, 2008 10:40 AM BST
Odwyer, there's nothing wrong with betting from the start.. almost certainly always do.. It's YOU that's wrong.. You broke all rules in betting generally and betting baseball..

1. Never chase your losses
2. Never back short prices when they are patentedly wrong
3. Never take a win for granted (as someone who professes to know the game and bet baseball, you are either stupid or choose to ignore the fact bullpens are generally fragile and cannot be trusted)
4. Never bet against the streak
5. Never ever inflict obvioius "tips" on the public forum or you'll end up with egg on your face
6. Never bet on someone's advice, it's YOU who ultimately make that call. Do your own research and see with your own eyes.. Not on the say so of so called experts.
7. Never ever rely on the name of the starting pitchers to get you the win. It's still a team game, lineups, defense, bullpens, even umpires can affect the game.
8. Never make assumptions regarding team reputations until you KNOW for sure.
9. Never ever get**y when you tip a winner
10. When in a rut, shut it down!
Report cause and effect April 7, 2008 10:42 AM BST
By the way, what dodgy forumnite? All have told ya time and time again, you are backing Detroit for the wrong reasons... and at a very short price designed to leave you looking silly.. oh and don't forget, favourites DO NOT always win.. follow those rules and you'll be fine.
Report F1Fan855 April 7, 2008 12:01 PM BST
That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50.

Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01.


Seriously, how can you not get this?...

VALUE ODDS WILL ALWAYS OBLIGE IN THE LONG TERM. THAT'S WHAT MAKES THEM VALUE.

If every game is about 50/50 as you say then, one out of every two will win (in the long term)...

An example of this would be the following (unlikely but simple for this example) pattern:

WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS

So that represents the 50/50 chance that you talk about.

Now lets add in the VALUE odds, of 2.1, starting bank of 100 and level stake of 10.

WIN : Bank = 111
LOSS : Bank = 101
WIN : Bank = 112
LOSS : Bank = 102
WIN : Bank = 113
LOSS : Bank = 103
WIN : Bank = 114
LOSS : Bank=104
WIN: Bank = 115
LOSS: Bank = 105

Oh look! I'm in profit and my general trend is positive. ie. If I keep picking VALUE in the long term I will win.

Yes, Detroit at about 1.6, will often win. The odds imply that they will win about 60% of the time. But if I believe that they would ACTUALLY only win 30% of the time, then that is a value lay. It doesn't matter that it will be a "one-way road to 1.01", as you say, sometimes. What matters is the general trend over many bets.

Do you understand that? Because your comments seem to suggest that you have absolutely no understanding of probability, value and positive expectation in the long term.
Report jimny April 7, 2008 6:22 PM BST
Personally, Im going to give MLB betting a rest for a week now and start again on the 14th with my old trustworthy conservative method.


So we're back to lumping on 1.07 shots are we :D Although reading this thread and the soccer thread that hasn't exactly gone to plan either :^0

These matches are 50/50 and you keep backing the short odds teams... :D
Report Jackie Chan April 7, 2008 6:33 PM BST
Top response F1Fan.

Like you I continue to be wound up by this clown, but I'm afraid to say that no matter what you post the moron will not take any note. There have been people actually offering him some level of constructive criticism and teach him something, but the clown remains insinstant that he knows best when all evidence points to the contrary.

Treat the thread for what it is, and absolute joke.
Report jimny April 7, 2008 6:39 PM BST
Ah give the lad some credit guys, he's a master fisherman :)

Look at all the threads he starts and the amount of replies he gets, like those windup toys just turn the key, set them down and watch those babys goooooo :^0
Report odwyer1980 April 8, 2008 1:35 PM BST
I will resume this on the 14th April when I've studied a little more of the season.

In-running tips only.

I've dabbled with betting from the offset and shown you how difficult it is to call - without seeing what is going on in the game and whether the starting pitcher has "got his stuff" for example.
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:02 PM BST
:^0 You just don't get it.. Most of the value is to be gained beforehand.. I do concede there are games like the Cubs and Pirates game where there are superb opportunities to bet in running.. I backed the Cubs before the top of the 12th when I saw Evan Meek was gonna be pitching.. But seriously, I pick the game I wanna watch beforehand and likely will have a punt on the game.. I won;'t watch a game on the off chance that a bullpen could blow the win. And most important of all, it has to be of value to me.. ie no shorter then 1.8.. GL though..
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:10 PM BST
And it does help if you actually know the bullpens of all teams and the circumstances of each players if you're gonna be betting your way.. 1.07 or 1.13 or 1.01 is no way worth the rsik given the fragile nature of bullpens.. What I'm saying is, instead of betting absurbedly short prices in running, why not spend the time doing proper research and interpreting the stats, then seeking out another opinion THEN betting on your informed judgement. Not assuming e.g. Detroit has a loaded lineup (which is true on paper) but hasn't shown it so far for me to trust them given the state of their pitching or e.g assuming no teams can lose a certain amount of games in a row.. It has happened before..
Report odwyer1980 April 8, 2008 2:10 PM BST
Cause and effect, with that stance you will inevitably fall long term.
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:11 PM BST
LOL.. BUT you've already proven you fail SHORT TERM with your strategy..
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:12 PM BST
Unless this is all a sham I think it is.. Noone's that stubborn to keep backing 1.07 or 1.67 "tips" when there's more then enough evidence that it'll lose!!
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:14 PM BST
Read this again.. You've obviously missed this post.. Perfectly sums up a more amenable strategy then backing 1.07..

F1Fan85 07 Apr 13:01


That's what you're dealing with here - a 50/50.

Value odds will not always oblige in this game either. People who have backed against Detroit have been very lucky so far as they've bet against a team (price 1.62) to win, who have lost 6 times on the trot. This will not always be the case, as a lot of 1.62 bets will probably be on a one way road to 1.01.


Seriously, how can you not get this?...

VALUE ODDS WILL ALWAYS OBLIGE IN THE LONG TERM. THAT'S WHAT MAKES THEM VALUE.

If every game is about 50/50 as you say then, one out of every two will win (in the long term)...

An example of this would be the following (unlikely but simple for this example) pattern:

WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS
WIN
LOSS

So that represents the 50/50 chance that you talk about.

Now lets add in the VALUE odds, of 2.1, starting bank of 100 and level stake of 10.

WIN : Bank = 111
LOSS : Bank = 101
WIN : Bank = 112
LOSS : Bank = 102
WIN : Bank = 113
LOSS : Bank = 103
WIN : Bank = 114
LOSS : Bank=104
WIN: Bank = 115
LOSS: Bank = 105

Oh look! I'm in profit and my general trend is positive. ie. If I keep picking VALUE in the long term I will win.

Yes, Detroit at about 1.6, will often win. The odds imply that they will win about 60% of the time. But if I believe that they would ACTUALLY only win 30% of the time, then that is a value lay. It doesn't matter that it will be a "one-way road to 1.01", as you say, sometimes. What matters is the general trend over many bets.

Do you understand that? Because your comments seem to suggest that you have absolutely no understanding of probability, value and positive expectation in the long term.
Report odwyer1980 April 8, 2008 2:15 PM BST
With regard to your second post, yes - the strength of a bullpen does play a big part. I have never argued against that.

Value will not always be the answer. You're destined to fail long term in MLB using that stance.

Good luck with your method though.
Report cause and effect April 8, 2008 2:17 PM BST
Fair enough.. Hate to see people setting themselves up for a fall though with obvious tips a 10 yr old could understand.. Ain't about being clever or summat.. Just solid reasoning and making an informed bet as opposed to assuming.. GL.. Back later for the Mets and Tigers game
Report Co Adriaanse April 8, 2008 4:51 PM BST
:^0
Report skybluesam April 8, 2008 7:43 PM BST
pmsl can't you see he's a master fisherman?
Report cause and effect April 9, 2008 6:19 AM BST
Thank you ODwyer for Tipping Arsenal.. Could you now, instead of backing Detroit, now back the damn Phillies? Much appreciated.. GL
Report odwyer1980 April 9, 2008 8:11 AM BST
Cause and effect Don't worry mate, you're doing a good enough job of messing it up, as I can establish by your replies in this thread.

That's why I say in-running is the only (near certain) way you can profit at this game, with a nice healthy lead. Saying that, that's not as fun as betting from the start of a match, in the lottery that is Baseball betting.

I will resume this thread on the 14th April after seeing a bit more of the season.
Report cause and effect April 9, 2008 8:55 AM BST
LOL.. Messing what up? You tipped Arsenal to qualify and I went against.. TBF to ya, I did get 11/10 on Liverpool to qualify before you posted your "tip 18".. I don't think we're having a go at ya for betting in running.. Just your tips are so short priced, not worth the risk. And they're based on flimsy reasonings then sound and solid ground.. Though you're not helping yourself by continuously tipping losing tips.. If you want to continue "backing" 1.01s then fair enough.. It's your dough and your choice.. Best of luck.. No need to get defensive..
Report cause and effect April 9, 2008 9:03 AM BST
"That's why I say in-running is the only (near certain) way you can profit at this game, with a nice healthy lead. Saying that, that's not as fun as betting from the start of a match, in the lottery that is Baseball betting." You said it.. For me, it's a bit of fun.. Backing my own judgement.. As I said previously, you'd make some dough laying then backing 1.01.. For every 100 you put on to win a quid, why not risk 1 to win 100??? If you bet 100 games for 1k to win 10, there's every chance someone will blow a lead for ya. Focus on teams with dodgy closers and bullpens.. We all know bout Tigers, but you can add Seattle, Angels, Cleveland and Phillies.. You know it make sense.
Report Proud to be a Northener April 15, 2008 5:35 PM BST
.
Report Proud to be a Northener April 23, 2008 3:59 PM BST
Odwyer have you give up on this ?
Report cause and effect April 23, 2008 10:01 PM BST
You must be bored H :^0 chatted to alex.. he's entered in the channel5 comp.. over to you..
Report Proud to be a Northener May 7, 2008 12:17 PM BST
.
Report EvanderSinque May 16, 2008 9:11 PM BST
.
Report skybluesam May 16, 2008 10:22 PM BST
Any tips for tonight odwyer?
Report odwyer1980 May 16, 2008 11:44 PM BST
Nah, I'll keep the money-making to myself I think.

Last 30 days:

Baseball: GBP807.00 | Boxing: GBP17.24 | Cricket: GBP252.88 | Darts: -GBP10.00 | Golf: GBP232.91 | Snooker: GBP2,586.24 | Soccer: GBP561.17 | Tennis: GBP737.36 Total P&L: GBP5,184.80
Report skybluesam May 16, 2008 11:47 PM BST
Damn, wanted to lay your mug tips
Report cgull August 4, 2008 3:24 PM BST
.
Report Proud to be a Northener August 4, 2008 3:26 PM BST
Should we green up on the Yankees world series bet yet Odwyer or hang onto it for now ?
Report cause and effect August 4, 2008 5:16 PM BST
I'd hang on to it if you got fancy prices... Giradi has impressed me greatly this season especially with his handling of the bullpen.. I'm surprised the Yanks are still in there without Wang and that's a testament to Mussina and Joba who's held the rotation together. Pettite should continue his strong second half trends though he's not as reliable as years past. Rasner and Ponson's been great in their spot starts but they'll need to either claim Washburn if Seattle expose him to waivers and get 1 or 2 of Hughes, Wang, Kennedy or even Pavano back if they are to make a strong sustained bid in September. Their trade deadline moves are the work of genius. Nady, Marte and I Rod practically arriving for nothing. Only McCutchen could be termed a notable loss from the farm system.

Rays and Bosox are obviously in front of them but Rays will have to prove they can sustain their play with Percival and the absence of another big bat possible hindrance. Bosox will have to prove they can hit without Manny though Bay, for me is a very good replacement and it's likely their strong pitching will hold up. With the wild card spot likely to fall to the East or Central, I would have to say the Yanks stand a very good chance of making it to the postseason ahead of the Rays and the Twins.

If they make it as the wildcard, they'll likely face the Angels and their performance vs the Angels this year has to be encouraging given the team record last season. Though Angels has beefed up their lineup, their pitching has notable question marks in particular the bullpen. KRod is on record pace and given his walks totals this year, he is vulnerable to fatigue and injury. On another note, whoever signs KRod next year will have to shell out $75m over 5 years and with recent trends and notable comparisons to Dontrelle Willis with the funky violent delivery, that's a price I wouldn't pay even for as elite a closer KRod is.
Report C1rclemaster August 4, 2008 5:31 PM BST
3
Report Proud to be a Northener August 12, 2008 4:46 AM BST
green up now ?
Report Levi Roots September 12, 2008 5:05 PM BST
Im worried about my Yankee bet ,should I be ?
Report Stupid Dave September 12, 2008 9:05 PM BST
You should now be all green
Report ryan g January 20, 2009 9:46 PM GMT
the 1st post on here was superb :^0
Report Knight Rider January 21, 2009 3:57 PM GMT
odwyer1980 24 Feb 02:05

With regards to closers....

3 closers who cannot be trusted at all and might be worth laying their teams, when they enter are:

Joe Borowski of Cleveland

Ryan Dempster of Chicago

Armando Benítez of Free agency.


---------------------------

Some may knock Odwyer, but Free Agency didn't get a single win all season. He knows his stuff.
Report cause and effect January 21, 2009 4:53 PM GMT
:) He does have a point.. wouldn't trust Borowski, Dempster or Benitez to close out a win.. Odwyer's a shrewd un imo :)
Report ryan g January 21, 2009 6:38 PM GMT
dont agree...dempster finished the closing role and could be trusted to pitch 6/7 innings as a starter :0 and was pretty much an ace at home...blowoski was useless mind...
Report tai671 March 18, 2010 8:55 PM GMT
He was right about the Yankees at least - shame he was a year too soon, the only time they've missed the playoffs since 1993 :D
Report tobermory March 19, 2010 12:47 AM GMT
Full Results

Bet 1: 1.01 WON
Bet:2 1.13 WON (layed off at 1.04 tho')
Bet 3: 1.07 LOST
Bet 4: 1.56 LOST
Bet 5: 1.55 LOST
Bet 6: 1.67 LOST

Incredible Stuff . The chances of those last 4 all losing were 278/1 so maybe he was right that multiples were the way to bet.
Report Bottom_of_the_League June 16, 2010 2:11 AM BST
We've missed the great man's words of wisdom this season.   Sad
Report ............................. June 16, 2010 2:14 AM BST
hahaha you can put it on the booooard!!!! yeeeess yeeeees!
Report Bottom_of_the_League February 20, 2011 9:35 PM GMT
Sorry, couldn't resist bumping this one too since someone bumped the other one.   Plain
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