|
By:
Uncle Os Game of the Week
New England @ Miami Ronnie Brown is gone and the offense is not the previously scheming fins, its really a one shot deal with Williams. Henne got picked three times last week it just dont look good n tight. The Pats is**ed and this has the feel of a real get better game, with the New England D teeing off and the Brady bunch violating the Dolphins secondary that is reeling (geddit?) Expect Moss and Welker to have big games against the rookie CBs - Brady seems to particularly enjoy throwing against Miami. Give the points and take the cash, baby. Pick: New England -4.5 Pick: 1st TD Randy Moss @ 9 Pick: Anytime TD Welker @ 2.75 ATS Naps Min -3 Phi -4 Ind -6 The rest ... Car -3.5 Cin -13 Chi -9 Hou -1 Dal -1.5 Den -6 Pit -14.5 NO -9 SD -13.5 Sea +1.5 GB -3.5 Acca NE SD NO @ 2.15 Value Acca Jax Sea NYG @ 9.68 [b] |
|
By:
Uncle Os Game of the Week
Carolina @ New England Effectively out of the post-season? Fielding a different defence every week? Your starting QB out? Playing a team thats 6-0 at home; a team that hasnt dropped three in a row since 2002? No problem, Ill take the 13 points. New England look poor on D, with a secondary thats hobbling around and a pass rush thats all but gone missing. On the other side of the ball, Brady is looking oddly unsure (and hes missed time this week with assorted injuries a hit away from disaster) and Gamble and Marshall are no mugs. Factor in the Panthers decent pass rush and you would hope Carolina can keep it closer than 14 points. Their big weakness is against the run, but Maroney and his friends dont fill me with dread. With Moore under centre again, its unlikely that the Panthers are going to make it a shoot-out, but theyre a run heavy O anyway, so its not like that will tax Moore and the system unduly. While that Pats arent poor against the run, with De Angelo Williams back, Carolina bring a nice ground game to Foxboro with Stewart playing well in Williams absence and showing he is more than capable (as I traded him away for rubbish in one of my fantasy teams!) and who knows, with a such a weak pass D, maybe the Panthers will be tempted downfield. Pick: Carolina +13 Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 13 Pick: Anytime TD Jonathan Stewart @ 2.4 ATS Naps NO -10 Ind -6.5 GB -4 The rest ... Sea +7 Oak +1.5 KC +2 Min -6 Bal -13.5 Mia +2 NYJ -4 StL +13 SD +3.5 Phi -1 SF +3.5 Acca GB Ind Hou @ 2.68 Value Acca SD NYG Oak @ 11.34 [b] |
|
By:
Uncle Os Game of the Week
Cincinnati @ San Diego Im keeping away from the weather in the East and the swine flu in St Louis, so I might as well pick one of the live games. The key here is Cincys lack of real aerial firepower and Philip Rivers form. I think it plays out like this; if the chargers get out to an early lead and the Bengals have to go to the air to chase, theyre in trouble. If Cincinnati can get ahead though, they can hand it off to Benson against the 21st ranked rush D in the NFL. The problem is that San Diego defends the pass well and, despite having a decent receiving corps, the Bengals just havent got it going vertically. This is a combination of a rotten O line and the knock-on effect of Palmer struggling. Cincy are strong at the corners, but the have issues at safety and with Crocker likely out, Antonio Gates will match up on the Rookie Tom Nelson, and that could get ugly. Rivers continues to be the hot hand and, even with this tough matchup vertically, I like Jackson and Floyd (so much theyre in nearly all my fantasy teams, so they must be good!) and even in tight coverage, they still make plays. Peko missing may offer LT a glimmer of a chance to get the rock moving on the ground. For a little added piquancy, bear this in mind; Norv Turner is 11-0 in December since taking over in 2007 and San Diego has won 16-straight games during the final full month of the regular season. The x-factor of course, is the terrible news about Chris Henry. In my experience, NFL teams play hard in this situation and Ochocinco will put it all out there for his buddy. Not a great betting game, but once more, Ill give the points. Gates to score is the strongest bet. Pick: San Diego -7 (General) Pick: 1st TD: Cedric Benson @ 7 (General) Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.2 (Sky) ATS Naps NE -6.5 NYJ -6 Phi -6.6 Ten -4.5 The rest ... Bal -11 Det +14 Kan -2 GB +2.5 Hou -14 Den -14 Sea -6.5 Car +9 Was +3 Acca Phi NE Min @ 2.14 Value Acca Kan GB Was @ 9.16 [b] |
|
By:
San Diego @ Tennessee
A Christmas cracker, or |
|
By:
2.38??? :0 currently trading at 2.16 fyi
|
|
By:
Took it at about 6ish today, sorry.
|
|
By:
nice one O... 2 out of 3 in the bag... and looking for 3 out of 3
|
|
By:
oops, sorry thought you said LT not CJ... anywyas 2 out of 3 looking very good for.
|
|
By:
Uncle Os Game of the Week
I thought I might as well pick the TV games, just because Im going to be wrestling with mountains of bubble and squeak and cold turkey, and itll add a little relish as I watch the games! Jacksonville @ New England Im regretting this already ... this is a tough pick. Ill key this on the Jags pass-rush (or lack of it) and the status of CB Rashean Mathis. Brady struggled lasy week when the Bills brought pressure, and the Pats lacked fluency on offense, handing it off a lot and running two tight end sets to combat the stuttering receiving corps. However, they should have an easier time of it today and with Mathis very limited at best, I expect Brady, Moss and Welker to have big games. They may need to, because Maurice Jones-Drew has the ability to take advantage of NEs run D with Wilfork missing and if his offensive line can give him the chance. Garrard can get it done against a banged up Pats D and Sims-Walker has produced mightily, but has dropped off a little of late. This isnt a game to go crazy on and it sounds like a lot of points to give in what might be a close game, but Ill take the Pats on their home field. Pick: New England -9 (Uncle JC) Pick: 1st TD Randy Moss @ 8 Pick: Anytime TD Mike Sims-Walker @ 2.3 Denver @ Philadelphia I like the Eagles here. Theyll blitz all day and if they can get to Orton (and oddly, there may be a doubt as theyve had difficulty landing the blitzes of late) they can limit the threat of Marshall with Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown completing a nice D against the pass. DeSean Jackson is an interesting play, in as much as the Eagles use him all over the field, meaning his matchups alter from play to play and he may offer some value here as the Broncos have issues at safety and that absence of help over the top might let Jackson in for a big game. Giving less than a score at home, Ill give the points again. Pick: Philadelphia -6.5 Pick: 1st TD Brandon Marshall @ 9 Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson @ 1.91 ATS Naps Sea +14 Wash +7 Ind -3 The rest ... (SD SU) Buf +8 Kan +13.5 Cle -3 Hou +2 Car +9 Chi +7 NO -14 Bal +3 StL +15 Det +14.5 Acca Atl NYG Cle @ 2.66 Value Acca Hou Bal Car @ 18.93 [b] |
|
By:
Chaps, stop emailing. As I explained on my website, there's no way I make picks in Week 17.
Normal service will resume in the post-season :) |
|
By:
Uncle Os Wildcard Weekend Picks
NY Jets @ Cincinnati Two teams I dont like. I dont like the thought of a rookie QB on the road in the post-season and the Bengals can be anything on any given day. I suspect this is going to be a run heavy game as one of the reasons the Jets have surged is that they have managed to limit Sanchezs mistakes of late, so I expect Jones to see the rock a lot. Similarly, Benson should get a lot of touches as Cincinnati struggle to throw the ball at the best of times, never mind against a solid Jets defence. Neither side though, is a soft touch against the run, and with a poor weather forecast, all these factors should combine to make Unders a strong bet. So, where to put the £2? Well, this is a time of year when I look very carefully at whos under centre and I cant invest in Sanchez who I anticipate will have to go vertical at some point. Against the Bengal corners, this could be the difference. It may though, give Cotchery a chance to score late as the most reliable receiver in the corps. However, Ill give the points at home and take the Unders. Pick: Cincinnati -2.5 Pick: Under 34 Pick: 1st TD Benson @ 7 Pick: Anytime TD Cotchery @ 3.2 Philadelphia @ Dallas Two teams that seem to be headed in different directions. Philly were horrible last week and thats a worrying type of momentum to take into a game like this. Dallas are looking to rid themselves of some post-season demons and are looking like a team pulling together at the right time. Again, if you look at the respective QBs it looks like Romo is likely to put his opposite number in the shade. The Eagles pass rush was ineffective last time and Romo is going to have time to look downfield with Austin and Witten freed up in the middle. The Eagles have operated on the |
|
By:
gl O
|
|
By:
Cheers, Ross. Sandwiches and cake at the ready ... tea ready. Can't wait :)
Bizarrely, a whole paragraph of my pick post is missing (about Phillies' O line protecting McNabb and the Eagles needing to stop the run) but I'll take it as a good omen! |
|
By:
Baltimore @ New England
New England, New England, just keep repeating it like a mantra. Brady is banged up, Welker is gone, Moss has lost a step and Edelman has got to find his feet fast in a post-season game. Gulp. Actually, I like the Pats a little more than that. The Ravens are going to key on their run game, but New England have Wilfork back at nose tackle to clog things up and the rest of the D line has done well enough not to be terrified by the prospect of the Rice/McGahee one-two. Baltimore are limited downfield, with Mason and Heap (on fire lately) providing their greatest threat and, while the Pats secondary doesnt exactly fill me with girlish glee, again, I dont see them being overpowered. The New England O line needs to keep Brady safe and they have managed pretty well during the regular season giving up just 16 sacks. Theyll have to cope with Rice, Suggs, Ngata, Pryce et al, so it will be interesting to see how those matchups look early keep an eye on them, because they are key here. If Brady gets time, he will develop Edelman underneath and that should free up Moss deep. Then the Pats can get rolling against a thin Ravens secondary with only Fabian Washington at CB and Ed Reed limping around at free safety. New England are still running it by committee, and Baltimore have been particularly solid against the run recently, so the 15 Pats RBs arent likely to shine too bright. Flacco set off at a gallop this season, but as the running game dwindled, he began to struggle in a less balanced offence. Hell be happier now the run is back, and New England do give up the occasional big play, but I like the Pats D here and I expect Flacco to have a tough day. New England is perfect at home and I dont see that changing here. Both teams may struggle to get into stride quickly, with personnel gone on one side and the Ravens trying to get the running game on the other, so Unders may be the call. Pick: NE -3.5 Pick: Under 43.5 Pick: 1st TD Todd Heap @ 13 Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 1.8 |
|
By:
Green Bay @ Arizona
I like Green Bay here in a game that should produce a lot of points. Rodgers has been money all season and the Cards are nicked up in the secondary and if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie doesnt go, the Overs and GB case increases. Similarly, Warner should be able to make hay against the Pack downfield who really only have Woodson tearing up trees. Boldin is out, but Warner has the weapons, but he is apt to turn the ball over under pressure and Green Bay will come after him all day. These noises about him retiring when they lose doesnt fill me with confidence, either. As all my picks are informed (?) by fantasy producers, I like Jennings and Finley to maybe make me back some of the money I lost on the NE fiasco. Ill give the points and go Over. Pick: Green Bay -2.5 Pick: Over 47 Pick: 1st TD Jennings @ 12 Pick: anytime TD Finley @ 2.75 |
|
By:
Think the handi, Finley and points should hopefully all come in tonight!
|
|
By:
They'd better! :)
|
|
By:
Arizona @ New Orleans
This has all the makings of a shootout as the two top offenses meet and that would suggest a bucket full of points, but, with the line high Im going to go Under here. I never cease to be amazed, even after 30 or so years of serious interest in football, at the capacity of teams to readjust, re-adapt and retool elements of their game, even over short periods. So I expect the Cards to come with a better game on the defensive side of the ball. Arizona sacked Rodgers five times last week, and thats a worry for Brees whose O line has not given him an armchair ride this season. His quick release, accuracy and ability to move can paper over those cracks but Berry, Dockett and Calais Campbell will come after Brees and its a question of how well the line copes. Interestingly, and another factor that plays in favour of Unders, I think the running game may be a big factor in the outcome of the game. Wells had a solid game last week (91 yds) against a strong rush D and the Saints are poor against the run. Although Warner almost forces a coach to use the vertical game, it shouldnt be forgotten that Whisenhunt is a run first coach and it will be difficult for him to resist thoroughly testing the Saints defensive front, especially as this is likely to open up the field for Warner if its successful. Picking the winner is tough. I like Warner, the Cards running game in this match and I love Arizonas momentum and Im not sure the Saints will find their rhythm easily after the time off, but I like New Orleans attack and their secondary and the Superdome is a definite homefield advantage, but are they really 7 points better in this game? No, I think the Cards can win this. Im going to take the points and go Under. Pick: Arizona +7 Pick: Arizona SU @ 3.5 Pick: Under 57 Pick: 1st TD Shockey @ 17 Pick: Anytime TD Wells @ 2.4 (365) Baltimore @ Indianapolis Im not buying Baltimore. Last week, everything had to fall perfectly for them for them to win, and it did. In order to win this game however, theyll have to put the ball in Flaccos hands and that isnt good. Since they last met, the Colts have got Kelvin Hayden and Jerraud Powers back at the corners and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are healthy too; particularly significant with Ravens LT Jared Gaither out and Baltimore are just not going to move the rock effectively enough to win it. Of course, the Ravens gameplan on D will be to get to Manning and disrupt Indianapolis the way they managed to with New England, but Brady looked off his game and his O line was peculiarly porous; I dont see the same happening today and Manning will get it done. That will put Baltimore behind and Flacco will need to try and catch up (see above!). The greatest threat for the Indianapolis D, of course, is the Baltimore running game and Ray Rice**over the Pats last week (159 yards and 2 TDs) and the Colts D is ranked 24th in rush yards allowed. However, Im going to go out on a limb here and qualify those stats by pointing out that that one incredible opening play last week accounted for 83 of Rices 159 yards on the day and that 400+ yards of rushing was given up by the Colts in the last two games of the regular season, when they were controversially resting their players. LBs Gary Brackett and Clint Session arent slouches and Ill take the Colts to exert some control over the Ravens running game. That said, Rice is good catching out of the backfield too, so hes good to score at the price. Incidentally, Wayne on offer at 10 at SJ strikes me as a knocking bet. The run heavy O and competent Ravens D mean that Manning will have to work hard, so I see this going Under. Ill give the points. Pick: Indianapolis -6 Pick: Under 44 Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 10 (SJ) Pick: Anytime TD Ray Rice @ 1.91 (PP) |
|
By:
Good call Dave ...can't see past MIN and SD tonight!
|
|
By:
Cheers, M. Arizona embarrassed me though!
My wisdom (?) will be posted later, the coin I use has fallen down the back of the sofa. |
|
By:
lol ...same here ...considered trading out on Arizona @ 2.72 having backed at 3.65 ...of course i didnt ...seduced by last weeks performance!!
...won back my losses on IND all in! ...had a dream run in play offs last year but struggling this time round have lost heavily on DAL 2 consecutive weeks and they do have momentum but I was struck last night what an advantage NO had playing in the dome and suspect it will be the same tonight!! ...find that coin quick! |
|
By:
Sorry, Bostsox, I'm opposing you. It means Minny are a lock though :)
Dallas @ Minnesota Im going with momentum on this one. The Vikes love their home field, Favre can get it done and Peterson is due a big game, but Dallas are surging in practically every aspect of their play and theyre just too hot to oppose. Romo is rolling, and I expect Austin to have a big game with Winfield sufficiently injured to have been playing nickel last time out. This means Austin will match up on guys like Sapp or Griffin and both can be overpowered. Williams and Crayton round out a strong set of options downfield that should be able to do some damage. Dont disregard the Dallas running game, I like Felix Jones to break a couple today against a line that gives up the occasional long run. Fairly obviously, limiting Romo is the key for the Minny D, but my man-love for Jared Allen has been tempered somewhat by his performances down the stretch. However, he goes up against Flozell Adams here and thats a worry for Dallas. E.J. Henderson is out and if the pass rush misfires, the all-new Romo will torch Minnesota. Bear in mind though, were looking at Allen, Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, and Ray Edwards here. If that pressure comes, look for Witten to have a greater role in this game. Brinkley is weak in coverage and if Romo is forced to check down he can expose the Vikes safeties. On the other side of the ball, Dallas are strong at DB, but look for Harvin in the slot, because despite the excellent play of Mike Jenkins, Terrance Newman, Gerald Sensabaugh and Ken Hamlin, Scandrick looks like a weak link operating as nickel corner and Harvin could take advantage. I like DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer and the Dallas linebackers are working beautifully as a unit, but theyll need to with Peterson on hand. That said, theyve shut the run down before and should be capable of at least limiting the damage. Favre: what to say about the old man? Well, he seems to have throttled back on the hopeful pass that made him a turnover machine, but Ware and Ratcliff are going to give him fits today as he tries to operate behind an average Vikes O line and I fancy Brett to eventually give the ball up a couple of times as they bear down. Keep an eye on his favourite redzone target, Visanthe Shiancoe. Ill take Dallas to win this in a squeaker and go Over as some quick strikes take it to da house ... or Mall Pick: Dallas SU @ 2.2 Pick: Over 45.5 Pick: 1st TD Shiancoe @ 11 Pick: Anytime TD Austin @ 1.91 Pick: Felix Jones longest rush Over 15.5 @ 1.87 |
|
By:
NY Jets @ San Diego
It ends here for the Jets. Although Revis and the D have been a revelation, the Chargers just look irresistible. Revis will cover Vincent Jackson, but Antonio Gates will be free to wreak havoc. Kerry Rhodes is no mug, but as needs must, Rivers will get it to Gates and Floyd as the Chargers O line tend to give their QB enough time to get it done. LT and Sproles give them options out of the backfield. This means that the Chargers will score points, and if that happens, then the Jets will have to look to Sanchez to put it up and that spells disaster in my view. The big qualifier of course, is whether the Jets primary means of scoring can find any joy. Well, the Chargers can certainly be run on, but Jones is banged up (durability is an issue here) so expect Shonn Greene to get plenty of touches. The key then, is the Jets falling behind. If that happens (and it will) they wont be able to make it back. I also like the line at 42 to go Over as the Jets get reckless in desperation. Pick: San Diego -8.5 Pick: Over 42 Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 10 Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson/Antonio Gates @ 2.2 (BWin) ** |
|
By:
NY Jets @ Indianapolis
If the Jets can keep it close, they can make it to the Who concert. But they wont. If ever the great 'resting players' debate promised to bite a team on the backside, this is its moment, but I just dont see the Jets scoring enough points to get the win and, as its win at all costs, Ryan will have to put it in Sanchez hands at some point and that may make things worse. The Jets will dial up lots of exotic blitzes, but they didnt hurry Manning before and, while Revis is the finest corner in the NFL, Manning has too many options to fall at this final hurdle. Revis says hell move around, not just cover Wayne, but who is better under centre at recognising Defensive patterns than number 18? Once Revis is neutralised, that secondary isnt so fearsome, so I expect Garcon and Clark to have big games. With Jenkins out and Ellis limited, the Colts should use Addai to mix it up and I wouldnt be surprised to see him break a couple. Shonn Greene and Jones will see the rock all day, but the Colts are solid on Defense, and they can defend the run - they stepped up mightily against the Ravens and they dont give up big plays. Theyll bring Mathis and Freeney off the edge against the pass where necessary, hurrying Sanchez into bad decisions that risk giving the ball away. The line has moved out, but Ill still give the points and take the Unders. Pick: Indianapolis -8.5 Pick: Under 40 Pick: 1st TD Garcon @ 15 Pick: Anytime TD Dallas Clark @ 2.23 Pick: Winning Margin Colts 13-18 @ 6.5 |
|
By:
Minnesota @ New Orleans
Away from the home dome; banged up in key areas; Minny better hope that All Day comes to play. The Vikes give it up through the air, and with Drew Brees as triggerman that can spell disaster. Theres always the Favre factor, but as superhuman as he is, this is probably a game too far for the old man. If the Vikings can get to Brees they might have a chance because the Saints can be run on, notwithstanding the fact that, if they fall behind early, Favre will have to throw the ball to Rice who is stellar downfield. Minnesota leak points against TEs and Id have liked to see a fully fit Shockey rampaging into the endzone, but Brees isnt short of targets and I expect Colston to do some damage. There should be some points in this one as Favre never goes with a whimper and the Saints seem to rely on winning by sheer weight of points; theyll concede, but theyll put 40 points on in any case. Pick: New Orleans -4 Pick: Over 53 Pick: 1st TD Shockey @ 17 Pick: Anytime TD Colston @ 2.00; Sidney Rice @ 2.1 |
|
By:
well done Uncle O ....3 winning bets and Garcon highlighted too to be fair
...good eve for me ...on Peyton +264.5yds, Colts +23.5pts and Colts -7.5 :) ...at last a playoff game going to plan!! |
|
By:
Nice one, M.
A better showing here and a couple of quid gained back from a pretty torrid post-season! I thought the Jets, and Sanchez in particular, showed some real talent. An ante post bet or two in the offing? |
|
By:
Some very nice bets in there O , not gona post one for the pro-bowl for a interest??
|
|
By:
Not really a game I would bet on, Forza.
You'll have to wait for my wisdom ;) |