Power Rankings for the Playoffs

Dallas 1.50 Philadelphia 2.99
Arizona 2.22 Green Bay 1.82
New England 1.48 Baltimore 3.07
Cincinnati 1.83 New York J 2.20

Baltimore 3.07 , Baltimore Raven's for me,

fair play lifetaker.

next weekends early tissue -

New Orleans 1.62 Arizona 2.62
Minnesota 2.96 Dallas 1.51
Indianapolis 1.49 Baltimore 3.05
San Diego 1.16 New York J 7.15

keep up the guessin!

Just out of interest how did San Diego come out as such large favourites against NYJ? Have you applied any other variables?

Shortest price on any home team in the playoffs is generally going to be around the 1.3/1.4 mark unless its Patriots in 2007 as all the teams are of a decent standard.

because the chargers will** all over them

fallen,
no added factors. and the jets rank better going into the game than they did at the end of the season having won at cincinnati.
san diego just have a very high ranking. ended the reg season as my number 1 and if this game had been last week would have been even shorter.

harry,
yes, i think so.

New Orleans 1.62 Arizona 2.62
Minnesota 2.96 Dallas 1.51
Indianapolis 1.49 Baltimore 3.05
San Diego 1.16 New York J 7.15

so at the moment

san diego shortest at 1.33 that is right for them to be shortest and 1.33 is actually a bit of value i think.

new orleans at 1.37 next. that is interesting cos baltimore seem tougher opponents than arizona but are they? arizona/new orleans will be a shootout and arizona look a 50/50 shot in a shoot out. indianapolis at home should be the next favourites.

new orleans are a lay. and indianapolis at 1.42 is a no bet. baltimore are tough and have a legitimate shot.

and finally my route to recovering green bay loses. dallas as the dog are a stand out bet. 2.2 is a back price for sure.

Floz , I've enjoyed your thread ( thank's )

This has me Questioning ; new orleans are a lay. My Opinion would be UNDER NO ! circumstance Lay, Once they've taken the lead price will be gone for good, could be in 1:23 min's.

Raven's I like,

Thank's again for all the time & effort you put in on a weekly basis

TAXI!!!!!!

and as I survey the wreckage of my 2009 NFL punting I can pin point the exact time it all went wrong. It was when the colts and saints were 13-0 and the world was a simple place where coaches tried to win as many regular season games as possible and then the superbowl.

Oh well.......

The game will make a mug out of all of us at some point Floz, thats the beauty of it in some ways. You'll be back next season and I'm sure you're sharp enough to get back on track.

tar arrested.

anyway, better see it through to the end.

Indianapolis 1.65 New York J 2.53
New Orleans 1.68 Minnesota 2.47

Floz,

Bad luck over the weekend.

The thing that hit's me regarding your rankings is that you are giving far too much weight to a team last game. The Jets have gone from a No hoper against San Diego to being equal with Colts (taking Home Field into account).

Diesel,
You're spot on. I adjust by 1/8th of the actual result over the expected.

ie team 1 rated .500 playing at home v team 2 rated .500 with a .600 home field advantage modifyer makes the expected result .600/.400 -
team 1 1.67 team 2 2.5

if team 1 wins the ratings going forward would be -
team 1 .550 team 2 .450

if team 2 were to win the ratings going forward would be -
team 1 .425 team 2 .575

maybe it is too much. a 1/16th on a 16 game season would make sense but what that does is only unwind a team's good form over the whole season. a 1/8th for me gives 50% recognition of permenant form and accelerates temporary form into the ratings quickly.

denver for example. my ratings quickly identified them as on a roll and equally quickly identified their collapese. when they were 6-4 for example a 1/16th method would have them as a about a .500 team. my ratings had them lower than that and the rest of the season showed that to be correct.

i accept an 1/8th may be too much movement though. difficult to peg it correctly believe me.

on the jets here, i'll just adjust one assumption you have made though. part of the reason they are much shorter at indy than at san diego is because of their own rating which was .677 and is now .785 but the rest is because indy come in at .781 much lower than san diego did at .905 after their very strong run at the end of the season.

to give a fairer view of how much weight is given to one match i have re calculated the price the jets would be following their rating adjustment for beating san diego if indianapolis came into the game rated the same as san diego did on sunday. the price would be -
indianapolis 1.27 new york 4.66, i hope that you would be happier to see that a team calculated as a 6/1 shot but winning would be priced up at a 7/2 shot if repeating the fixture the following week.

good observation though. i like challenging and being challenged on systems. its the only way to improve them. thanks.

Interesting stuff Floz.

I've actually got my own Power rankings program that I've been running for 6 years now.
In the example you give, I'd re-rate the winner of the 50-50 game as follows.
Home team wins by 3 or less - No change in ratings.
Home team wins by 4-17 - Home team 55-45
Home team wins by 14+ - Home team 57.5-42.5

Away team wins by 1-14 - Home team 45-55
Away team wins by 14+ - Home team 42.5-57.5

thanks for sharing that diesel. i have tinkered with points based ratings for establishing handicap prices rather than outright match prices.

i found several difficulties that i couldn't work out a satisfactory way to overcome.

stratifying the results like that - less than 3, 3 to 14, more than 14 would have been very interesting to me at the time. i can't remember what i concluded to be honest but working something like that in would have at least prolonged my experiment by another season to see how it worked.

combining a points differential with a system to give outright match prices is VERY interesting right now.

my initial reaction is that your ratings movements on average are similar to mine which is good from the point of view that it helps persuade me i'm not over factoring one result.

my other reaction is from days when i did concern myself with margin of victory rather than victory/loss is that i remember becoming bogged down in theories about whether a team that came from behind with a final drive TD to win 27-24 was different from a team that led 27-10 with 7 minutes remaining and allowed 2 TD's.

From a handicap betting stand point they are absolutely the same.
From an outright betting stand point i thought i would be more comfortable with the team that led 27-10 but eventually shook that theory concluding teams that come from behind one week will often come from behind regularly and therefore fundamentally they are the same again.

this led me to consider the comparison between the team that led 27-10 and won 27-10 and the team that led 27-10 and won 27-24. rightly or wrongly i started to think there wasn't much difference between these two either. winning breeds winning and losing breeds losing.

i can't help liking the principle you are applying though and will mull it over. if you've been doing it for 6 years it must be working.....

Think anyone with a rankings system based on the 16 game season would have been caught out by NYJ against San Diego. I had them at about 1.30 against NYJ which was lower than their starting price. A lesson learned in that respect to modify rankings in future years to account for some type of momentum post season. Could still be an all number 1 seed which would be a good end for me. Keep your work up, one bad season doesnt make a bad model.

So penultimate roll of the dice.

Jets - can they run it down the colts throats. If the d can keep Indy to 20 or less, they can do it.

Vikings - I'm relying on the Vikings being good last week rather than the cowboys hopeless. Struggling to convince myself to be honest. Saints might freeze?

Anyway, the dogs are the value. Especially the Jets.

last posting of the year -

superbowl tissue prices -

indianapolis 1.60 New Orleans 2.67

Floz, At least your a Fraction more REALIST than the Current prices being offerd
Has me thinking How much $$,$$$ Dollars are laying the Colts Early & Wantting a Early Saints score - to Trade ?

Well as every-one knows my comment`s may be in favour of the saint`s

The Colts managed 30 ponts some of which came from a late EZY Score when the game was all-over
Once the Colts took charge the oppostiion was Gone.
While ,
The Saints Managed 28 points from an Oppostion that went the Distance + more, eventually winninig with 31 ( in a Game Brees wasn`t Throwing & Didn`t their Defence show its stuff )

So I would say :
Colts = 1.80 anything Less you would be Taking UNDERS
Saints = 2.30 anything More you would be Taking OVERS