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Fallen Angel,
Glad to hear elo produces similar list. That's kind if comforting cos elo has a lot of merit. I just couldn't ever get on with it well enough. |
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Jacob
Yes the system is not designed to predict the year end record. It takes no account of future schedule. I agree that Denver probably won't go 14-2. The rating that is actually a figure between 1 and 999 which I just applied it to give a 16 game record for ease of reference. The principle applies - a team currently rated 750 is playing as of now like a 12-4 team. That is not the same as saying they will end the reg seaso at 12-4. Take a team that starts 0-4 then goes on a 10 game winning streak, they will be rated better than 750 which in terms of predicting season ending record is impossible but in terms of predicting at what level they will perform in their week 15 match is good. |
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Ok I understand what you mean now
Out of interest, whats your unit +/- over a season using the ratings? |
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far too complicated for me lol, can i do ratings based purely on how good i think teams are? its ok just ignore me lol im bored and i wanna have a go! :)
1.New Orleans 2.Indianapolis 3.New England 4.Pittsburgh 5.Minnesota 6.Arizona 7.NY Giants 8.Atlanta 9.Baltimore 10.Philadelphia 11.Dallas 12.Denver 13.San Diego 14.Green Bay 15.NY Jets 16.Houston 17.Cincinnati 18.Miami 19.San Francisco 20.Chicago 21.Carolina 22.Jacksonville 23.Buffalo 24.Tennessee 25.Seattle 26.Oakland 27.Detroit 28.Kansas City 29.Cleveland 30.Washington 31.Tampa Bay 32. St.Louis |
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You have cleveland and washington the wrong way round
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jacob,
i wouldn't dream of aftertiming about previous seasons. lets see how it does on this thread the rest of the year. cobbleyman, i've got that name wrong but can'y be bothered to cancel this and go back and check. - of course you can juts list them as you see it base on 'how good the teams are' thats how all the college top 25's are done! |
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ah its cunny bobbler.
good list too. cincinnati is interesting. |
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0 for 5 at the minute.
things can only get better. |
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ok, only -1.15 in the end. disappointed in the lions funnily enough more than broncos or giants.
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vikings prevent total carnage. although oakland at 12.5 gave me a run for my money. -1.4 on the late games giving a total for the week of -2.55 as the saints/falcons is a no bet for me.
running total after two weeks up 0.13 (very disappointing) although mention of the oakland price reminds me that i would never bet to level stakes on these games. as i'm at least quits on level stakes it wouldn't be aftertiming to outline a simple staking plan would it? i might be doing worse using it i don't know until i look....... for the time being i'll stand by being up by a whisker after two weeks. |
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its OK Floz, I was just interested.
I had a great weekend this week, looking ahead next week I don't immediately like much |
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New Orleans Saints 1144.60
Pittsburgh Steelers 1126.43 New England Patriots 1123.02 Indinapolis Colts 1119.30 Minnesota Vikings 1108.73 Dallas Cowboys 1082.35 Denver Broncos 1079.45 Phillidelphia Eagles 1060.46 Houston Texans 1045.99 Atlanta Falcons 1044.80 New York Giants 1039.28 Baltimore Ravens 1039.18 Cincinnati Bengals 1018.30 San Diego Chargers 1015.60 Arizona Cardinals 1013.58 Chicago Bears 1009.93 New York Jets 1003.41 Green bay packers 999.88 Miami Dolphins 989.76 San Fransisco 49ners 977.63 Carolina Panthers 974.83 Buffolo Bills 952.48 Jacksonvilla Jaguars 949.90 Seattle Seahawks 942.18 Tennesse Titans 931.61 Washington Redskins 923.65 Kansas City Chiefs 880.32 Tampa Bay Buccanears 874.51 Cleveland Browns 858.74 Oakland Raiders 849.03 St Louis Rams 824.37 Detroit Lions 821.70 Floz these are my current ElOs for comparison. This is updated as of today with Atlanta@NO added after the result today |
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jacob,
i'm delighted you had a succesful week. i needed the raiders or the lions to pull out last drive comebacks. of all the teams to be relying on! fallen, very interesting and thanks for including the rating. looks very workable from a calculating point of view. my question is if a team is 1100 and another 900, is it fair to say the former is as far above average as the latter is below or is a fractional thing ie the distance below 1000 that 900 is is the same distance as 1111 is above 1000? the ratings i use, 500 is an 8-8 team and away you go from there. 750 is 12-4 and 250 4-12 - simples. |
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lol Floz, they are 2 teams that probably haven't had a last minute comeback in years!!
I only had Chargers -3.5 in my super teaser on that game, and had bet the Rams - purely because I didn't think the Lions should be less than 1.5 even against their own practise squad |
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did they get to less than 1.5 - i backed them on friday at 1.6!
still i take your point. now, i've finished my re-work of the 19 selections to date and the staking plan i would use in place of a level £ on the level i have 9 winners returning a profit of £10.13 and 10 losers returning a loss of (obviously) £10. when i was watching the raiders go close at 12.5 it got me thinking that if you backed 10 at 2 and 10 at 12.5, then you'd need to go 10 for 10 on the even money shots to compensate for none of the 12.5 shots winning (which is actually a relatively likely outcome). similarly you could go 0 for 10 on the even money shots so long as you pulled 2 long shots. in all honesty, if you go 10 for 10 on even money shots you NEED to win and if you go 0 for 10 on even money shots you DESERVE to lose. so, i'm staking on this basis - at the price 1.25 i'm staking 1.60 to win 0.40 at the price 1.6 i'm staking 1.25 to win 0.75 at the price 5 i'm staking 0.4 to win 1.60 at the price 12.5 i'm staking 0.16 to win 1.84 ie always a 2 unit swing between winning and losing. result on 19 bets advised - 9 winners win £7.25 10 losers lose £8.31 for a shortfall of £1.06 interesting - so far the 4 winners above even money on level stakes are enough to take a loss to profit. i'll keep track of both. |
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I don't know about BF, but pinny had them sub 1.5 most of the week
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i needed the raiders or the lions to pull out last drive comebacks.
of all the teams to be relying on! I saw that and knew I had read enough of the tat |
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btl,
how about if i'd put it like this. all i needed was for a team that had lost 17 in a row to surrender a late score and lose an 18th. and with the raiders what i'm looking at is being with a 16 point underdog that trailed by only 8 and had the ball for the last possession with plenty of time. thats not such a crazy selection is it. anyway, i know the futility of it in hindsight or i wouldn't have stressed it in my post. |
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so after saints/falcons
from the SN starting position (movement since last week) 1. New Orleans (+1) 2. Indianapolis (-1) 3. Pittsburgh 4. Minnesota (+1) 5. New England (-1) 6. Dallas (+4) 7. Atlanta (+1) 8. Philadelphia (+4) 9. Baltimore (+5) 10. Arizona (-4) 11. Denver (-4) 12. New York G (-3) 13. San Diego 14. Miami (+3) 15. Houston (+3) 16. Chicago (-1) 17. Cincinnati (-1) 18. Green Bay (-7) 19. Carolina (+4) 20. Tennessee (+4) 21. New York J (-2) 22. San Francisco (-1) 23. Buffalo (-3) 24. Jacksonville (-2) 25. Seattle 26. Kansas City 27. Oakland 28. St Louis (+3) 29. Cleveland 30. Washington 31. Detroit (-3) 32. Tampa Bay |
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from above
Chicago 2.00 Arizona 2.00 Cincinnati 2.10 Baltimore 1.91 New Orleans 1.10 Carolina 10.9 Philadelphia 1.90 Dallas 2.11 Seattle 1.22 Detroit 5.49 Tampa Bay 10 Green Bay 1.11 Indianapolis 1.15 Houston 7.46 Jacksonville 1.47 Kansas City 3.13 New England 1.36 Miami 3.76 New York G 1.69 San Diego 2.44 San Francisco 1.84 Tennessee 2.19 Atlanta 1.07 Washington 14.5 Denver 3.16 Pittsburgh 1.46 |
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and the pure
this should be close to your elo fallen 1. New Orleans 2. Indianapolis 3. Minnesota 4. Denver 5. Pittsburgh 6. Cincinnati 7. New England 8. Dallas 9. Houston 10. Baltimore 11. Atlanta 12. Philadelphia 13. Miami 14. Arizona 15. Chicago 16. San Diego 17. Green Bay 18. New York G 19. Carolina 20. New York J 21. San Francisco 22. Buffalo 23. Seattle 24. Jacksonville 25. Tennessee 26. Oakland 27. Cleveland 28. St Louis 29. Kansas City 30. Detroit 31. Washington 32. Tampa Bay |
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and the pure
this should be close to your elo fallen 1. New Orleans 2. Indianapolis 3. Minnesota 4. Denver 5. Pittsburgh 6. Cincinnati 7. New England 8. Dallas 9. Houston 10. Baltimore 11. Atlanta 12. Philadelphia 13. Miami 14. Arizona 15. Chicago 16. San Diego 17. Green Bay 18. New York G 19. Carolina 20. New York J 21. San Francisco 22. Buffalo 23. Seattle 24. Jacksonville 25. Tennessee 26. Oakland 27. Cleveland 28. St Louis 29. Kansas City 30. Detroit 31. Washington 32. Tampa Bay |
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and from the pure list
Chicago 1.86 Arizona 2.17 Cincinnati 1.62 Baltimore 2.61 New Orleans 1.04 Carolina 29.4 Philadelphia 2.19 Dallas 1.84 Seattle 1.26 Detroit 4.81 Tampa Bay 14.9 Green Bay 1.07 Indianapolis 1.25 Houston 4.95 Jacksonville 1.47 Kansas City 3.11 New England 1.51 Miami 2.97 New York G 1.93 San Diego 2.07 San Francisco 1.45 Tennessee 3.23 Atlanta 1.08 Washington 14.3 Denver 1.73 Pittsburgh 2.37 |
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Floz,
Very useful stuff here. Obviously the main reason to do any of this is to create prices to compare to the market, I assume you do the same. The difference between say 1100 and 1000 and 1200 and 1100 is pricisely zero under my method. The calculation is Home index - away Index + home advantage (a fixed 100points in standard methodology that I looked at) but this is adjusted by some rules I have used about whether this should be applied or not. There is a formula in excel which then creates a fixed % win for the away team based on the above. I can write it into thread from excel. The home team % is just 100% - away team percentage. Although the index only varies by 350 points the formula means that the difference is magnified. The method is holding up quite well on a P&L basis. I would only bet where the model and the market have a huge discrpency i.e. more than 5% difference. I've backed New Orleans for the Superbowl at 5.2, on the basis of the ELOs I make them a 3.4 -1 (decimal shot) to win if they rank 1st. Will follow ur rankings with interest, from speaking to people NFL seems to be one of the sports favoured by the modellers. |
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Fallen Angel,
yes that is all i do. compare my price to the market and bet accordingly. home advantage is a flat 100 points applied to your elo ratings. ok, thanks. i'll do some comps of teams 100 points apart that therefore should be even money the pair if playing at the lower ranked teams home and compare with how my home field advantage adjuster works. |
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prices seem to have settled so for this week i put up
arizona at 2.4 cincinnati at 2.3 green bay at 1.23 indy at 1.28 kc at 3.5 miami at 6 (and i'm quite hopeful on this) atlanta at 1.22 new orleans at 1.16 detroit at 5.8 (seattle must be weak) san diego at 3.1 dallas at 2.4 (late match - can't wait for this one) no bet sf/tennessee and pitt/denv |
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Looking good.
Come on fins! |
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ok.
first level stakes - arizona, cincy, san diego and the cowboys at odds against get a tick in the box. KC, Miami and detroit at odds against all lost. Indy Atlanta and NO won as expected. Green Bay was the big let down. odds against - 4 wins = +6.2 3 losses = -3 Total +3.2 odds on - 3 wins = +0.66 1 loss = -1 Total -0.34 Grand total for the week = +2.86 Running season total 16 winners (+16.99) 14 losers (-14.00) = 30 Bets (+2.99) |
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wont be long before them steelers are ranked 1 again
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on the staking plan
arizona -.83/+1.17 cincinnati -.87/+1.13 green bay -1.63/+.37 indianapolis -1.56/+.44 kansas city -.57/+1.43 miami -.33/+1.67 atlanta -1.64/+.36 new orleans -1.72/+.28 detroit -.34/+1.66 san diego -.65/+1.35 dallas -.83/+1.17 wins 7 = +5.9 losses 4 = -2.87 Total = +3.03 Running total 16 wins (+13.15) 14 losses (-11.18) |
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harry,
about to run those spreadsheets. new orleans set for no1 spot stil. steelers and cowboys big winners. |
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understandable the saints stay 1....i still believe the vikings are the best rounded nfc team...cowboys in 3rd spot then?
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SN START / Team / PURE ITERATIVE
1. Indianapolis .2 2. New Orleans .1 3. Pittsburgh .3 4. Minnesota .4 5. New England .7 6. Dallas .5 7. Arizona .9 8. Atlanta .10 9. San Diego .11 10. Cincinnati .6 11. Denver .8 12. Philadelphia .15 13. Baltimore .13 14. Miami .14 15. Houston .12 16. New York G .18 17. Chicago .16 18. Tennessee .20 19. Carolina .17 20. Green Bay .23 21. New York J .19 22. Jacksonville .22 23. Buffalo .21 24. San Francisco .25 25. Seattle .24 26. Oakland .26 27. Tampa Bay .28 28. Kansas City .30 29. St Louis .29 30. Cleveland .27 31. Washington .31 32. Detroit .32 wow - indianapolis go no 1 on the SN Start table. new orleans were 3/10 of 1% point above but as carolina were weaker opps than houston indy go 1/10 of 1% point into the lead. the smallest margin possible. ok 4 places is now the biggest difference for any team between the two table so converging nicely. odds on this weekends (starting thursday?) matches coming up. |
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chicago@san fran thursday game
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Thursday
SN/Pure Home/Visitor SN/Pure 2.71 2.65 SanFrancisco Chicago 1.58 1.61 |
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Sunday
SN/Pure Home/Visitor SN/Pure 2.94 2.88 Carolina Atlanta 1.52 1.53 1.44 1.76 Tennessee Buffalo 3.29 2.31 1.22 1.48 Pittsburgh Cincinnati 5.62 3.08 8.40 18.5 Washington Denver 1.14 1.06 1.02 1.02 Minnesota Detroit 52.6 47.6 1.66 1.68 New York J Jacksonville 2.53 2.48 31.3 83.3 St Louis New Orleans 1.03 1.01 1.17 1.20 Miami Tampa Bay 6.76 6.02 1.67 1.40 Oakland Kansas City 2.49 3.47 4.37 5.92 Green Bay Dallas 1.30 1.20 1.52 1.54 San Diego Philadelphia 2.92 2.85 1.17 1.25 Arizona Seattle 6.94 5.00 1.36 1.26 Indianapolis New England 3.82 4.90 |
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Monday
SN/Pure Home/Visitor SN/Pure 6.58 5.59 Cleveland Baltimore 1.18 1.22 |
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Interesting, I saw some significant changes this week as well. Good to see that overall you are profiting. The win for Pittsburgh has put them close to the top of my rankings especially because Denver were riding high before that.
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ok, i'm over the bears loss.
i hate that. if you gonna lose go out 38-0 like oakland that week or semi gloriously like the dolphins against new england but not 10-6. anyway so from thursday bears -1/+1.8 -.71/+1.29 for sunday falcons -1/+.95 -1.03/+.97 bills -1/+3.10 -.49/+1.51 broncos -1/+.59 -1.26/+.74 vikings -1/+.10 -1.82/+.18 jaguars -1/+2.60 -.56/+1.44 saints -1/+.15 -1.74/+.26 dolphins -1/+.23 -1.63/+.37 raiders -1/+.84 -1.09/+.91 cowboys -1/+.72 -1.16/+.84 chargers -1/+.93 -1.04/+.96 cardinals -1/+.31 -1.53/+.47 colts -1/+.80 -1.11/+.89 only sunday no bet is pitt/cinc and mnf is no bet too. very unusual week in my reckoning. a huge number of excellent value favourites. |
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carnage. thank god for the colts. rarely been so happy with an odds on winner.
before i get to excatly how badly i did a couple of points 1. how great is the nfl? so many topsey turvey games. i never felt totally out of the running on sunday until the bills faded and the bronocos chucked it in and even the falcons couldn't mount a come from behind effort and then i had to be grateful for miami and indy. dallas was the big disappointmemt for me. and why do i keep selecting the raiders? 2. someone asked on another thread why some people back on the match odds not the handicap. my simple answer is because its much better. you care about the game situation and not some artificial arrangement. anyway, lets tot this up bears -1/+1.8 -.71/+1.29 falcons -1/+.95 -1.03/+.97 bills -1/+3.10 -.49/+1.51 broncos -1/+.59 -1.26/+.74 vikings -1/+.10 -1.82/+.18 jaguars -1/+2.60 -.56/+1.44 saints -1/+.15 -1.74/+.26 dolphins -1/+.23 -1.63/+.37 raiders -1/+.84 -1.09/+.91 cowboys -1/+.72 -1.16/+.84 chargers -1/+.93 -1.04/+.96 cardinals -1/+.31 -1.53/+.47 colts -1/+.80 -1.11/+.89 |