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01 Dec 09 15:48
Date Joined: 18 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 22,897 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
So we are closer to knowing who we are likely to see in the post season

This is a good summary:

Saints obviously the big favs after their impressive win vs the Pats and the Colts are not far behind.

I am personally staggered by some of the prices elsewhere within this market for good teams.

Since the Pats dominated a few years back the SB has been fairly open for the past few years.

the AFC looks to me where the value is.

Steelers @ 34
Ravens @ 65
Titans @ 70

All with fairly simple run ins.

These are all teams that can beat anyone on their day and if they get a good run towards the end of the season like we saw with the steelers last year have a great chance.

Still fancy vikings to take the NFC but the AFC still has some shocks to come imo
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Report skyblues December 1, 2009 6:13 PM GMT
sorry d13 will write more later, and not to put down your thoughts, but no way the titans make the playoffs, they arnt winning 10 straight and one more loss will put them to bed. More than likely against indy but if not it will come somewhere else.
Steelers i like aslong as this thing with big ben doesnt wreck them too much, seems to have caused a bit of in house trouble.
Ravens another at a decent price though i feel only 1 of them or steelers makes the playoffs.
I have had a crazy bet on jags at 330, more for a miricle than actually thinking they do it.

I thought the falcs had a chance but with ryan hurt now and turner again i feel thats them done now, definatly more value in afc i feel and their wil be 1 team who squeaks in at a decent price.

Ok wrote more than i thought now less time for my footie bets.
Report Jello Biafra December 1, 2009 6:42 PM GMT
I think Denver is the value bet in the AFC - a game in hand over the other teams in playoff contention, and three easy games against KC/OAK in their run-in.
Report Ace High December 1, 2009 6:49 PM GMT
Steelers the only bit of value I can see. Tomlin said they 'would unleash hell' this month.

Watch out nfl.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 1, 2009 6:52 PM GMT
i tend to agree Steelers look the best value to me,'d like 33/1 about a very physical team that is in the playoffs with a fit polamalu. Last nights game showed once again the value of a top class secondary as the pats was torched in no mean fashion by drew brees.
The pats have only faced 2 teams with a decent pass attack and have shifted 73 points in them,they'll get away with it against lesser teams as brady is capable ofscoring plenty.
Report skyblues December 1, 2009 7:31 PM GMT
Cant see denver making the playoffs either if im honest. they will be strong at home but not away and i think they could lose this week at the chiefs. havent the best record their in recent times. They have got the advt of extra rest thou after playing on thur.
Report incaseof December 1, 2009 8:31 PM GMT
Agree about Jags at that price, they are playing absolutely crap some weeks and decent at times but have a talented team with hard D. Good price.

I like the Packers, weak o-line yes, not the best d-line but overall a very good team. The match up vs Vikings was/is dreadful for them consider how good Vikings O and D line is. Rookies in the D playing great of late and with good playmakers both side of the ball.

Very disappointed with Ravens, but indeed a team that can beat everyone. Great MNF this week with Ravens at Lambeau!
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 1, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
Arizona continue to fly under the radar,big game against the vikings this weekend but if warner is back and they grab the win 30's is too big
Report skyblues December 1, 2009 8:46 PM GMT
think 30's is little to big already tbh. Aslong as this thing with warner is nothing serious this team will be feared come playoff time against whoever they play. Offence good enough to challenge the best defences and a defence that isnt too bad, Were v unlucky sunday.
Report enjbenjy December 1, 2009 10:03 PM GMT
How long is it until polamalu is back?
Report Lifetaker December 1, 2009 10:55 PM GMT
All opinion's given are my-own & Honest, I like to think of myself as a : " REAL-IST "

Steelers @ 34 = Fitter than last year ( Still won't Admit They Won it. OTHER"S Threw it away, should never have made the S-B.)
** This is a Defencive Team , with a minamle Offence = OUT.
Ravens @ 65 = Let Pressure & Ego's Destroy them.( Penalties ) Spent too much Energy on the Man / Not the Job. Be Physical / BUT Concerntrate on your JOB !
Titans @ 70 = EGO's Again, in-house politic's

AMERICA has been Brain-washed for year's , centuary's .. it's in their Brain Dead Culture = EGO's & $$,$$$,$$$ Mentality.

* * *
Look @ the Team's preforming Now SAINT"S - VIKING"S - COLT"S ......, Miami's on their way,
Look @ Their Philosophy and willingness to go : ' Outside the common belief " & the Belief in themself's. and the Foundation they are building , just hope the Viking's are prepairing for day's - Favre.

How long , Before a poor club, look's outside America for a Coach ?
Report Ace High December 2, 2009 12:09 PM GMT
Omg @ people mentioning the jags. Wouldnt touch that team at 100,000/1. They define mediocrity.
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 12:39 PM GMT
i agree ace high...ridiculous mentioning the jags...i think mentioning the titans is bad enough
Report FORZA AS ROMA December 2, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
I have the Colts and Packers pre-season , but the Packers look a stand out bet atm, the O-line problem has been kind of fixed, and the defence and ST are standing up
Report skyblues December 2, 2009 4:19 PM GMT
well its not ridiculous imo but their obiv is a reason its 330-1 as they is very little chance, but they are 1 game out off the playoffs at the minute if they manage to sneak in what price will they be? id imagine i will be able to trade it. If they dont make it ive lost what a few quid betting a massive long shot.
Wasnt the chargers matched at something like 550 last season?

In the nfl surprises happen and i think 1 surprise team will make it, if its the jags great if not oh well. dont think no one has said they will win the superbowl or even make it to the final.
Report d13phe December 2, 2009 9:19 PM GMT
just put £100 on Steelers at 34 and 32/1

remaining games:

Oakland, at Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami.

crazy price given that they could realistically be 10-6 (Oakland, browns, miami and Packers) going into the post season with troy and big ben fully fit

they could even be 11-6 with that schedule
Report d13phe December 2, 2009 9:22 PM GMT
11-5 even
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:06 PM GMT
@skyblues...yes the chargers were a big price but everyone knows they have had the talent and still do...just havent got it done...jaguars on the other hand are poor and have littel talent.
Report skyblues December 2, 2009 10:16 PM GMT
yeah, i agree they arnt the same kind off team that the chargers were, my point is about a big price, he said about value plays imo 330-1 isnt the worst bet in the world for the kind of cash you would put on.
It could be over this week if they lose to the texans but as ive said i dont expect them to make the playoffs but at 330-1 im willing to take a shot as if they did scrape in id cry at not betting it.
Report skyblues December 2, 2009 10:21 PM GMT
460 now.
also titans at 75 is alot worse value imo they prob lose this week imo and thats them done, they wont be making the playoffs at 9-7.
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:22 PM GMT
no i cant see that happening...they just got over the line this week on a freak play...manning will rip them up
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:23 PM GMT
and then they still have to win the rest of the games...they aint guaranteed to do that
Report skyblues December 2, 2009 10:25 PM GMT
it was a big bet by my standards so, im very thankfull to that bounce off the helmet and vince young, what a drive. but sorry no way do they make the playoffs, i know the jags are nothing special and more than likely wont be going near the playoffs but to have them at 460 and 6-5 with winnable games apart from indy at home and pats away (would need to win 1 off them) to a 5-6 titans team at 75 is crazy imo.
Yeah titans team better overall but they blew it themselves at the start imo.
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:34 PM GMT
yes very much agree with you...prices are wrong way round lol...yes they are on a roll but apart from last week who have they beat?..they aint gonna blow teams away so for them too win out they will need lots of luck...not having it.
Report Ace High December 2, 2009 10:38 PM GMT
Titans defo too short..will need to beat Indy and Sand D, plus other 3 'easier' games.

Though if they do get to 10-6, Chris Johnson has to get MVP if but for the prediction only.
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:38 PM GMT
ahh they have chargers also :^0
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:39 PM GMT
who else they got?
Report HARRY22 December 2, 2009 10:40 PM GMT
any games hard for them...1. its the nfl,anything can happen.2. they aint that good in the 1st place
Report Ace High December 2, 2009 10:42 PM GMT
@ Indy
San Diego
@ Seattle
Report Whyyy..ssoooo...sssseriouss? December 2, 2009 11:00 PM GMT
chargers at 18.5 and minn at 8.5 here, chargers looking really good
Report Ace High December 2, 2009 11:38 PM GMT
Chargers always look can just never discount the Norv effect.
Report Lifetaker December 3, 2009 5:54 AM GMT
Saint's Still @ $4.00 in Aus.
Report cunnybobbler December 3, 2009 7:06 AM GMT
cant see the ravens doing it, they probably have to win all 5 and green bay an pittsburgh away are tough. pittsburgh will probably edge them for the last playoff spot imo. cant really see them winning at indy or the pats though.
Report incaseof December 3, 2009 1:07 PM GMT
Win all five? In AFC 9-7 is possibility how it looks at the moment. Winner of Steelers - Ravens will probably end 10-6 or better but the rest looks like 9-7, 8-8 teams.
If Broncos wins this week @ KC, 10-6 for them very likely. But I think it will be very close the last two weeks with plenty of teams fighting for a WC spot.
Report db1974 December 3, 2009 1:10 PM GMT
It's amazing the difference a year makes

Pats couldn't get into play-offs last year with 11-5 and this year it looks like 9-7 could be good enough, for one team anyway.
Report mr_sykes December 3, 2009 1:52 PM GMT
What odds a Chargers - Vikings Superbowl??
Report Rich1965 December 3, 2009 10:58 PM GMT
db1974 03 Dec 14:10
It's amazing the difference a year makes

Pats couldn't get into play-offs last year with 11-5 and this year it looks like 9-7 could be good enough, for one team anyway.

Chargers got in last year 8-8
Report Fallen Angel December 4, 2009 1:41 AM GMT
Steelers look interesting at 32's, I agree with D13. If they get Troy and Big Ben back fit again then they will be a force to be reckoned with.
Report Ace High December 4, 2009 1:48 AM GMT
Chargers got in last year 8-8

By winning the division...
Report HARRY22 December 6, 2009 9:50 PM GMT
There u go SKYBLUES...jags and titans price wrong way round...1 team had a nice game at home to texans and titans at the powerhouse colts..2 games back now
Report Ace High December 6, 2009 9:53 PM GMT
Wouldnt touch the jags at a million to 1. They are a abomination. Dont care how many garbage wins they pick up againgst the frog** of the league.
Report Ace High December 6, 2009 9:55 PM GMT
Sc1m a banned word?

This is a forum for degenerate gamblers right? F1ck me. Hardly the Cbeebies message board is it.

Get a grip betfair.
Report HARRY22 December 6, 2009 9:56 PM GMT
correct ACE...that wasnt the point...jags are a horrible team...the point was the titans should of been the huge price...they had the colts and way they were gonna make it
Report Ace High December 6, 2009 9:58 PM GMT
I agreed on titans been too short.

Am disagreeing on the jags being a good bet at any price. They are sickly bad.
Report HARRY22 December 6, 2009 9:59 PM GMT
yes i know...1 of few who werent sucked in by a 5 game running streak against poor teams apart from cards who they got lucky v anyway
Report d13phe December 6, 2009 10:00 PM GMT
steelers have to win out now
Report Ace High December 6, 2009 10:04 PM GMT
Steelers are done.

Last seasons luck evenin out.
Report ghoststory. December 7, 2009 4:20 AM GMT
I'm on Arizona next time they lose a game and you can get 30's...
That offence can get you out of some jams
Report skyblues December 7, 2009 4:17 PM GMT
Yeah steelers are done, though they can still make it, i cant see it seems to be something badly going a miss there at the min and losing to the raiders at home just about says it all.
out off my jags bet at 140 so its ok for a free bet, never did say they werent a horrible team just too big off a price for a team that could sneak into the playoffs.
Everyones opioions differnt.
Report HARRY22 December 7, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
You were right skyblues...price was massive compared to others.....broncos huge value at 40s considering steelers are 40s now
Report skyblues December 7, 2009 7:04 PM GMT
the problem with the 40's harry is i dont see them winning the division so i wouldnt expect them to be that much diffrent to that price come playoff time with having to play 3 road games.
wouldnt be touching either, the value is going now really. i still like the chargers but unless they get the number 2 seed i cant see them winning it.
Report Ace High December 7, 2009 7:13 PM GMT
Report Fallen Angel December 7, 2009 8:13 PM GMT
Got a bit of the Saints after week 8/9 and havent traded off yet. Thought they were going to shorten and it has taken a while for them to move from 3-1 from 4s.

If they wrap up the number 1 slot I made the a 3.3 / 3.5 shot to win it. Would be based on 1.3 in the first playoff, 1.5 in the Championship game and 1.8 in the superbowl potentially with the also unbeaten colts. Using my own ELOs to create the probabilities. Arizona are looking good, shame I laid them at 13s for the championship game, expected them to struggle this week and got proved wrong.
Report cunnybobbler December 8, 2009 2:25 AM GMT
any team that isnt going to get a top 2 seed is a poor price right now, they always drift going into the playoffs. especially teams who dont win the division. right now people want to back who they like, when the playoffs come around people want to back who is at home.

arizona is a particularly dreadful price 18-19, dont get me wrong they look in good form and could easily win it but i dont really care about that. if they get 2nd seed 18.0 may be ok but if they dont then 50.0 is nearer the mark when you add up all the games theyd have to win.
Report CJ December 8, 2009 10:06 AM GMT
FWIW i've just had a dabble on a few long shots, Philly @32, GB @50s and Arizona @20.

Missed all the prices on Indy and NO, though i dont mind as i honestly feel both are capable of being turned over in a one off game.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 8, 2009 10:14 AM GMT
I'd take 50's about arizona,the nfc looks up in the air to me,anyone of 5 or 6 teams wouldn't surprise me.New orleans keep winning and they look the goods but you have to check out that schedule of theirs,its been as soft as you like,tho their demolishing of the pats was impressive but its time we accepted they're on a steep downward curve.
The pats defence in general is poor,any team with a qb that can throw on them will light up their secondary.Belichick knows it as well,he wouldn't trust them to hold water.The Vikings have just lost henderson,petersen looks like he's carrying an injury and favre is due the december collywobbles,he didn't look happy sunday,thought i saw smoke coming out of his ears.

For me there could still be a team that comes out of the pack,no pun intended,i like the look of green bay,that qb of theirs is going to be very good and they have a nice balanced team,just think they're a running back away from the big one though.
Report Ace High December 8, 2009 11:04 AM GMT
but its time we accepted they're on a steep downward curve.

Steep downward curve @ 12-0? Would love to see a steep upward curve in your world.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 8, 2009 11:07 AM GMT
no the pats on a steep downward're right doesn't read as well as i'd hoped,blame it on fatigue from watching that penalty infested match last night !
Report Ace High December 8, 2009 11:19 AM GMT
Fair enough.

Here is my playoff scenario:

Though if weve learnt anything over the last 3 weeks, its that predicting this sport is a complete waste of time.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 8, 2009 11:38 AM GMT
lol,it is mate,i was going to comment on that nfc east thread but after reading it i lost the will ! he answered his own question,all too difficult
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer December 8, 2009 11:46 AM GMT
thanks for that link,i'll have a look later after i've watched this college bowl marathon show
Report wanna_b_pro December 9, 2009 5:58 PM GMT
Ravens look good at 95. Back to lay. I think they go either 9-7 or 10-6 which is good enough in the AFC. Back them now and then they them for your stake in the playoffs
Report wanna_b_pro December 9, 2009 6:10 PM GMT
That's a decent site Ace. I fet like doin one too, so heres mine
Report Lifetaker December 11, 2009 12:00 AM GMT
And the Date for the super bowl is ?
Report FORZA AS ROMA December 11, 2009 12:03 AM GMT
Feb 7th if i remember right
Report cunnybobbler December 11, 2009 12:04 AM GMT
if arizona only get 3rd seed what odds of them beating say dallas at home then minnesota away then new orleans away then indy in the superbowl? 1.7x3.5x4.0x3.0=71.4. ok they may not face those teams and you may not agree with those prices but you cant get em to anywhere near 20.0 whatever prices you use.
Report Lifetaker December 11, 2009 1:25 PM GMT
Iwas remembering it use to be Australia day, then they moved it so both team's get a week off, but more and more brain cells are failing these day's
Report d13phe December 20, 2009 11:53 PM GMT
wildcard spots hotting up now

Ravens looking very backable
Report incaseof December 20, 2009 11:58 PM GMT
Two 8-6 teams
Six 7-7 teams

Report d13phe December 21, 2009 12:02 AM GMT
cant rule out the titans now imo
Report incaseof December 21, 2009 12:04 AM GMT
No but poor AFC record, I think the Steelers win was huge against them
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