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JimmyK
30 Nov 09 12:44
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Date Joined: 26 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 590 | Blogger: JimmyK's blog
As we all know the general public no nothing about gambling.

The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.


The last three weeks has seen this theory go 7:3 ATS

It is early this week but already we have three sides being strongly backed by the public who we should look at seriously to oppose.

Houston 77.1%
Denver 77.1%
San Diego 75%

I will update over the course of the week as events unfold.

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Replies: 31
By:
redrich
When: 30 Nov 09 13:06
where do you get these figures?
By:
db1974
When: 30 Nov 09 13:27
Google the thread title
By:
Gazzy
When: 30 Nov 09 13:32
I think Denver will lose SU anyway!
By:
JimmyK
When: 01 Dec 09 09:46
San Diego 78.5%
Houston 76.3%
Denver 75.5%


I cannot trust the Texans for sure!
By:
Lifetaker
When: 01 Dec 09 10:08
I keep hearing : " Vince Young & The TITAN"S "
By:
redrich
When: 01 Dec 09 10:08
I like this approach jimmy. Keep up the good work!
By:
rink rat
When: 01 Dec 09 16:57
My figures have Jacksonville S/U for a win.
By:
JimmyK
When: 02 Dec 09 08:58
crikey

the numbers have expanded!!

San Diego 79%
New England 76.2%
Houston 75.8%
Denver 74.4%
New Orleans 74%


maybe we need to go against 5 this week!!
By:
redrich
When: 02 Dec 09 09:55
when do you think the best time to "take the reading" is? Is it not to early now?

I note that the week just gone had 2 other teams on 70% plus by kick-off - Minnesota and Cincinati (one of which covered, the other didn't).
By:
JimmyK
When: 02 Dec 09 10:29
hi red

i normally take a final look on about the saturday night.
By:
JimmyK
When: 02 Dec 09 10:30
i did not realise about minnesota and cinci.

what time did you check those?
By:
redrich
When: 02 Dec 09 10:35
checked on Sunday not long before kick-off. I viewed this site - maybe it's the wrong one or not that same as the one you are looking at? The figures seem to fluctuate quite a bit which is why I asked it there is an optimum time in your opinion to check?

http://www.wagertracker.com/consensusPicks.aspx?week=18&sport=NFL&expertsonly=false
By:
JimmyK
When: 02 Dec 09 11:21
i use wagerline.com
By:
db1974
When: 02 Dec 09 14:30
Here's last week's final results with Cinci nowhere near 70%

http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/consensusPick/daily-consensus-picks.aspx?sport=1&date=11/29/2009&select_type=0
By:
JimmyK
When: 04 Dec 09 21:01
San Diego 76.6%
New England 74%
Houston 71.3%
Denver 71.1%
Minnesota 70.1%

could be a big five time opposer this weekend!
By:
Gazzy
When: 05 Dec 09 21:13
put it in an acca!
By:
JimmyK
When: 06 Dec 09 13:33
final check and only 4 now to be opposed as Denver slipped below the 70% mark:

San Diego 75.5%
New England 74.3%
Minnesota 70.4%
Houston 70%

The Houston shout is tough as well as they are bang on 70%, is the rule 70% or above 70%....................

We also need to find a time each week for a cut off.

Anyway, for information and use them how you wish!
By:
skyblues
When: 06 Dec 09 13:36
pretty gutted denver has fell behind as its one off my bets.
Id imagine a sunday around 4pm would be a cut off point surely not too many more enter after this, Also shouldnt be a problem on getting bets off.
Also is their any over under bets above 70% as doesnt it work on that also?
By:
good value losers
When: 06 Dec 09 14:46
tough call to oppose ne but i can see mileage in the others
By:
redrich
When: 06 Dec 09 16:05
as of now, just NE (74.01%) and SD (74.78%) are over the 70% mark

just for info
By:
Joey_Boy1
When: 06 Dec 09 16:18
i know, i fancy ne -4.5 tho!! i can't back miami @ _4.5 just wouldnt feel right!
By:
Srichaphan or Ancic?
When: 06 Dec 09 17:05
Have to go for a Colts win today, Titans improvement is overrated and Colts with that unbeaten record. 1.4s seems value.
By:
good value losers
When: 06 Dec 09 19:49
:0
By:
Joey_Boy1
When: 06 Dec 09 20:14
i should have followed the tips here, luckily traded out!
By:
redrich
When: 06 Dec 09 21:01
going well so far!
By:
good value losers
When: 06 Dec 09 21:01
shirley cleveland can't pull it off as well :0
By:
redrich
When: 06 Dec 09 23:11
3 out of 4 with one to play. Good stuff.

I went for Cleveland and Miami
By:
good value losers
When: 06 Dec 09 23:14
spooky
By:
rink rat
When: 07 Dec 09 00:54
Wiseguys pounded Washington late,the hayseeds got eaten in that one.
By:
JimmyK
When: 07 Dec 09 08:37
wish i had that acca now!!
By:
redrich
When: 07 Dec 09 12:15
Wish I had followed in on all 4 rather than just 2!
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