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The Quest to stop impulse betting

Right method - bad research

24 Feb 11 19:10
Whilst Devon Smith batted ok never looked like completing his half-century but AB DeVilliers batted really well and steered the saffers home.
Unfortunately this resulted in a net loss of 19.53 - partly due to the fact that I had thought that ab would bat at 5 ... and therefore may not have had sufficient time to build that match winning innings.

Bank therefore now 81.47

Looking at finding a late Europa League game to try and improve the balance - the method will be looking at laying a team who are away from home and where the home side cannot afford to lose
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Bet 1 - Cricket WC WI v SA

24 Feb 11 07:48
This match actually means something in the context of the competition in that both sides have genuine aspirations to proceed to the quarter finals (at the very least).

To date the majority of the pitches have been batsmen friendly – although as Dehli is a relaid pitch this may be less of the case here.

There is rarely a deal of value in backing a side to win a 50-over match unless there is an opportunity to trade – which is not guaranteed to be possible as there are work commitments to fulfil.

My normal preference is to wait until the toss and then back a side (preferably the fancied side is batting 1st) to get par – 50 (eg India vs Bangladesh where par (in my mind was approx 300) and 250+ was available at 1.22-1.25 and Pakistan today where again 250+ was always likely to be scored (not so confident at 12/2 off 7 overs though).

The other option is to lay a player to be top score – my normal candidates are an opener (if the opposition has a good strike bowler) or the number 4/5 if unlikely to get in soon enough (when playing minnows)

To that end my bets on this game are

Lay AB DeVilliers to be top SA batsmen to win £5 @ 6.8 risk £29

I would like to lay Devon Smith for WI top bat – but he is in the ‘other batsmen’ category and if the pitch does play up then it is possible that a lower order bat could get the chance to score the runs.

So my bet on the WI innings is Lay Devon Smith to score a 50 to win £10 @ 3.7  risk £27
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The reasoning

24 Feb 11 07:45
First let me say that although I bet regularly I am not a big punter and prefer to set myself small goals rather than try and make large amounts. My downfall is that I tend to go one step too far and end up taking three steps back for every one forward.

The aim of this blog therefore is to try and prevent the impulse / rash whatever you want to call it decisions to get involved in an event / race / match that I have no real opinion on.

My current bank is £100 and my aim is to double that bank, and then take out the profit and start again and my primary method is to pick events and to aim to acheive the goal in small steps.

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