ness_228

Bank down to 52

There is no way you could legislate for the way that Zimbabwe capitulated against NZ today (or Bangladesh for that matter by the Windies), one shot away from the sixes - and with 10 required it was 74 each ..... so even then I thought it might not be too bad.

Still life goes on ....

Bank 119

The Kiwis blew Kenya out of the water, before having much the same done to them by the Aussies.
Zimbabwe got beaten comfortably by the Aussies, and then breezed past Canada.

This is a must win game for both sides - and defeat is likely to spell a knockout (or make qualification very difficult).

On their day the Kiwis are a very good one day side and Zim have no express pace to worry them, the 79-6 position vs Oz was down to the pace of the Aussie attack - and the inability of the Kiwi top order to deal with it.

Zimbabwe rely on a number of spin bowlers to exert some control, but if McCullum &/or Taylor get going then I can see the Kiwis batting them out of the game. However, this is the same ground that Zim contained Australia for long periods (262 is not a bad effort in the context of other main nation (and some lesser nation) totals). The Kiwi attack is more balanced than Australia but does have some useful quicks with the new ball and they may need that early breakthrough.

The top order of Zim has however been undone twice - by pace (and Canada's pace is accurate rather than electric) - and although Taibu and Ervine rescued them against Canada there was only a little late order resistance (when it didn't matter against Aus)

If NZ bat first then there are likely to be a few sixes, especially if the top order can build any sort of platform, on the way to a fair total. 250-300 seems a likely score as there will be no holding back due to the importance of the game.

If Zim bat first they will be looking for a total that they are able to defend - probably around 250 - and they will hope to get some sort of platform up front.


Martin Guptill is by common knowledge uneasy against spin, and he could get 40+ overs of it in this match (of a variety of types) especially if Mpofu is unfit.

LAY Martin Guptill to be top score to win £10 @ 5.0  (risk 40)

LAY Total sixes 0-4 to win £10 @ 3.7 (risk 27)

Bank returns to 114 after the destruction that was AB & Amla

Netherlands heads are dropping - they must have thought they would be chasing a sensible number after 20 - 25 overs had been bowled but the carnage that followed has destroyed any hopes they had and Steyn / Morkel and Tahir are likely to exploit any weaknesses.

The Netherlands were undone by Kemar Roach and Dale Steyn / Morne Morkel and cannot see any dutch batsman getting a decent score

LAY Alex Kervezee to score 50  £5 @ 5.5 (risk 22.50)

Bank 104

Well Mr Smith played a shot that Mr Smith the farmer in village cricket may have played - he must have missed it by a country mile !!

SA are stumbling along - but ....

The runs will flow - and AB & Amla score quickly if they get going.

BACK SA to score 275+  £10 @ 2.00

Missed the the start of the match, need a new alarm clock.

The weather seems dull & overcast, and the ball seems to be moving around a touch although not sure the Netherlands have the attack to exploit the conditions.

There appears no value in the 300+ market (1.37) although it is likely that they will get there (if there is a swing in the market then may go in later (@ around 1.8 - 2.0) and therefore have decided to back Graeme Smith to get a fifty.

BACK G Smith to get 50  £10 @ 1.55

Bank 114

After todays major upset can the minnows still be treated with disdain ?
The answer has got to be yes. England, as I said in yesterdays blog, have no strike bowling and not much control either. The same cannot be said about tomorrows big fish.

SA play Holland (who scored 290 vs England, but who were rolled over by WI). Pace was the main destroyer for the WI and in Dale Steyn the Saffers have a bigger and more potent weapon.
The forecast says that there will be rain (albeit light) about so SA will be interested in finishing the job as soon as possible.

Until the toss and the outcome is known then it is difficult to determine where the value lies.
Laying Netherlands runs (cant see them making 250)
or
Laying JP Duminy for top scorer seem likely options
If SA bat first then a total in excess of 300 would seem likely.


Pakistan play Canada in the late game. Canada have frankly been quite poor - thrashed twice including collapsing to Ray Price's 'lethal pies' against Zim.
Pakistan have looked much more controlled and consistent than has been the case in the recent past. Afridi has looked a very potent spin weapon and Shoaib Akhtar will always pose problems early doors.
Again, there are potentially thunderstorms about and a 'no result' would be a big setback for Pakistan.

Once again the toss will determine the actual bets
Laying Canada runs (sub 200 looks likely) or Misbah to not be top score if Canada bat first.
If Pak bat then a return to todays strategy of laying 0-4 sixes may be the play.

Heres hoping that the alarm clock functions correctly tomorrow.

Bank2 109.53

Another old firm clash, they should be getting used to them now, and it is beginning to look like Celtic are gaining the upper had this season.

The original tie appears to have been the 'Gers chance to put away a 10-man Celtic side and yet they allowed Celtic to grab an equaliser - and since then Celtic have won comfortably in the SPL.

Rangers results in Europe - qualified having only won 1 in 17 (or something like that) - must be a distraction and the players have looked tired and jaded in the last few games.

BACK Celtic £15 @ 2.1

Prices for a red card and the bookings reflect the history in ths fixture and are no real value.


In the FA cup its likely that Arsenal B team will probably beat the O's, but you never know and the Arsenal squad is beginning to look a little thin on the ground - and there was a massive disappointment on Sunday to overcome. 1.2 is not value.

Man City vs Aston Villa. Man City with all their multi-millionaires are seemingly struggling to put together any consistency - too many cooks spoil the broth ?? - and the Villa are starting to string together some decent results.

LAY Man City to win £15 @ 1.72 (risk 10.80)

If Villa score, or the game gets to 70mins with no goal look to lay off to lock in a profit. I am slowly trying to learn my lessons of late winners and comebacks.

Bank2 - £100

England performed heroics to somehow restrict India to 338 (could and possibly should have been 360-370), and then got themselves into a position to coast home, faltered badly and then with a bit of lower order hitting got the tie.
This can't paper over the cracks in the bowling - 630 in 100 overs - is not the best and they look woefully short of strike bowling.
The middle order also looked very fragile and short of power in that run-chase against India once Bell & Strauss has got out (and how Bell survived that UDRS decision is anyines guess - it may have changed the match).

Ireland, P1L1, bowled well against Bangladesh but their batting lineup lost wickets at regular intervals and failed to chase down just over 200.
They do have a lot of experience in the side but not many of this Irish team have the Eoin Morgan level of skill.

England should, and most probably will, win this with a degree of comfort, but the Irish will be up for this one, and a couple of early wickets could see England once again struggle to put away the minnows. The four associate teams have been put in their place decisively 6.5 times out of 8. Only Netherlands (against England) and Ireland (playing probably the weakest 'test' nation) have put up anything like a decent fist of it.

If the pitch in Bangalore is anything like that for the Eng v India game then it is difficult to see anything other than a 300-350 score for England (if they bat first), but Ireland are no mugs with the bat and should also score close to 250 unless Jimmy 'Daisy' Anderson has a 'Daisy Does' day and captures early wickets.

There were a number of sixes hit in the England v India game and although it is unlikely to be as explosive as it was on Sunday there should still be the opportunity for a number of lusty blows today

LAY Total sixes 0-4  to win £10 @ 3.95 (risk £29)

Bank £20

Not an easy game to try and call, especially when you are seemingly unable to find a winner.

Chelsea have suffered more setbacks than you could shake a stick at this season, and have had a number of off field distractions this week again.

Man Utds away form has been pitiful this season and Wayne Rooney has received a lot of media attention following his forearm smash at the weekend (had that been a Joey Barton there would have been lengthy bans involved methinks).

Various questions to be answered - can Chelsea find a frontline that will click together ? Have Man Utds away day blues been banished - Wigan are very poor at the moment in my opinion ? Will the press attention affect Cole / Rooney etc ?

Looking at the prices Chelsea look very short at around 11/10

LAY Chelsea to win £13 @ 2.24 (risk 16.12)
BACK Man Utd to win £3.88 @ 3.8

Bank @ 30

The Sri Lankans simply cannot afford to lose this one having already lost to Pakistan as even if they managed to qualify it would mean a knockout game against one of the top sides from the other group.

There is also the factor of the weather with possible thundershowers predicted to affect this game.

In these circumstances it is likely that should SL win the toss they will insert the Kenyans (who have not covered themselves in glory thus far) to try and skittle them or to restrict the scoring so they can knock them off quickly to nullify the effects of any weather interruptions.
If the Kenyans win the toss they too are likely to insert as prolonging the game is their best chance of a 'no result' I cannot, on what we have seen so far, see Kenya winning this game under any circumstances.

With the fears over the weather it would be a risky strategy to involve the total innings runs in any bets today.

Therefore my strategy will be to back Top Sri Lankan batsmen, given that in the best scenario Kenya would be inserted and skittled then the best must be restricted to the top 3 (or possibly 4 in the order).

The prices available also reflect this, unfortunately[:(]

BACK Tillekaratne Dilshan to be top score £5 @ 3.5
BACK Kumar Sangakkara to be top score £5 @ 4.7

The thinking behind this is that Dilshan will score quicker than Tharanga, and if Dilshan falls quickly then Sangakkara will probably catch Tharanga up.