ness_228

Bank 145

Rick Ponting does not like, and I mean really does not like. the minnows being in this competition and as he stated in his press conference there will be no letting up in this match " we want to be playing at our best. We are looking to win tomorrow's game comfortably".

Canada have tried manfully but are just not up to this level, their bowling lacks penetration and their batting lacks the sort of firepower that could create an upset.

This is the same ground as Englands match vs India and Ireland and if Australia bat then they could score 400 - and they may try to do it to prove a point about their dislike of the minnows. Haddin & Watson score freely against the majority of attacks - and if it is like a road then the ball may go to all parts.

BACK Australia 10 over total 60 or over £20 @ 1.41

In my opinion it is likely that they will score 70-80 so the back is a little conservative, but trying to ensure a win after yesterdays close misses.

The total 6s / total 4s market is entirely dependant on who bats first, if it is Canada then the lower end of the market must be favourite, if Australia bat first then they may not need to much assistance from the Canadians.

If Australia bowl anywhere near then it is likely that Canada will be blown away at the top order and there is potential value in laying all 3 of the top order of Canada to be top run scorer. Will wait until the teams are confirmed to action this play though.

Bank 148

Man Utd are rightly favourites to win todays 2nd leg - and therefore progress in the competition BUT, and its a big but, concede a goal and they will be right up against it as the French are not a bad defensive outfit.

For this reason I can see it be quite tight early, with Man Utd looking to score sometime between 30mins and the hour mark. If Man Utd score early they will need to be careful not to concede and therefore I can see the Over 2.5 goals trading a lot lower than the 1.88 currently available relatively quickly in this game.

BACK Under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 for £25 (standing to win £22)

This is a bet with a view to trade-off (hopefully after around 25-35 mins) at around 1.45 to leave a profit of around £10. Even if there is an early goal this bet still has every chance of coming in.

BACK Man Utd to win 3-0 £3 @ 13.5
BACK Marseilles to win 1-0 £2 @ 22

Bank returns down to 148

Things panned out exactly as predicted and then went disastrously wrong.

Amla gets off to a great start and then tries to upper cut another boundary and perishes to a great catch.

Kallis demonstrates the turning ability of the Titanic and gets run out early.

So the only remaining opportunity to retrieve some of the losses was 100 to be scored, and Duminy gets to 99 and gets out !!!

Definitely not a good day, and did I lay off .... for a big profit .... no !!!

Still a brave, but always likely to be futile, attempt by the Irish boys at least they played to their potential - unlike some

Life must go on - and the bank is relatively healthy even after the last couple of reversals.

Bank 165

Will SA want to risk a last match play off with Bangladesh to ensure qualification - and risk a game with Aus / SL in the quarter finals ? I don't think so.

Will Irelands batting stand up to a barrage by Morkel & Steyn ? I don't think so.

Will the Eden Gardens pitch, with pace and bounce according to Cricinfo, give Ireland any help ? Nope.

There is only one result of this match, and I doubt there will be any opportunity to choke. I foresee a win the toss, bat, score loads and then do what England couldn't and bowl Ireland out for a respectable but unthreatening score.

If AB DeVilliers does not play then this will weaken the depth of the batting, but may let JP Duminy loose earlier in the piece - and if he gets going then sitting in the stands may become a perilous occupation. However, it does make the top batsmen bet likely a void.

There are also doubts whether Johan Botha will play - therefore risking the top SA bowler where Dale Steyn / Morne Morkel were the two likely winners.

Betting on total boundaries / sixes is also risky pre-toss as an Ireland bat first may radically alter the odds you would want to take in comparison with a SA knock.

Therefore,

BACK H Amla to score 50  £7 @ 2.1
BACK J Kallis to score 50 £5 @ 2.22
and in the hope of a SA bat first

BACK Century Scored Yes £5 @ 2.2

Remaining bank 148

Bank 175

This will, or should be, a stroll for Pakistan on what has been a relatively seam friendly pitch (for the sub continent) against a side whose seam attack is friendly at best.

Pakistan are likely to insert, in my opinion, and then chase down whatever the Zim get - which may not be many.

My bets are

BACK Pakistan Opening partnership 20+  £10 @ 1.37
BACK Pakistan most Sixes £10 @ 1.37

Pakistan have three or four of the best hitters in the game, and Zimbabwe have none, and with no opening attack to defend against it is more likely for Shezad/Hafeez to at least get 1/2 a start this time.

Bank 166

This is not an awe inspiring game to get up to at 4am on a Monday morning but it does have a big bearing on the continued participation of England in the tournament. If the Dutch win then England are nearly safe, somehow.

Bangladesh bowled well against England, batted patchily and scraped over the line, they will though have a fanatical crowd behind them until things start going wrong

As this is a day game, and dew will not be a factor, I could see Bangladesh inserting the Dutch if they win the toss - so they know what they are chasing.

This will probably not be the highest scoring match and much will depend on how the Dutch play the array of slow stuff that the Bangers provide, and how well they bowl. I have a feeling that the England order allowed the spinners to bowl the lines they wanted, and I dont know whether the Dutch have the batting lineup to knock them off that length either.


The top 1st 10 overs interests me in that Bangladesh are nailed on, if Tamim Iqbal is at the crease for more than 5 overs. I would expect the winning score to be 50 (or less) but 1.46 is not really value as a couple of quick wickets are always possible.

The opening Bangladesh partnership is also at risk from the Tamim hitting on up in the air early doors, possibly worth a lay 10 or more.

My bet will be LAY Total 4's 43 or more @ 2.00 to win £15

The only danger to this is Bangladesh batting first and Tamim going ballistic and guiding them to a 300+ score (very unlikely but he is the mini-Sehwag who could on his day win the game on his own), so to mitigate any losses (and possibly win both)

BACK Tamim Iqbal to be Bangladesh Top Runscorer £5 @ 3.75

Bank 189

England are rampant and on the way to a Grand Slam, Scotland have been somewhere between disappointing and dreadful and their confidence must be shot to pieces.
The chopping and changing of the side will not be heliping the Scots either.

Scotland will come to Twickenham to spoil, frustrate and slow down England as much as possible, but it doesnt look like being a wet or windy day and therefore the superior confidence of England, and the pace in the backs (Scotlands major failing is a lack of incisiveness outside) will result in a convincing win as long as they can focus on the basics.

If England can start well then this could get messy for the Scots, on the flip side of that is if Scotland can frustrate England then the pressure may start to tell on the heavy odds on favourites (as per France yesterday).

BACK England to score more than 30.5 points £10 @ 1.74
BACK England in the race to 10pts  £10 @ 1.2
BACK C Ashton to score a try £5 @ 1.74
Back B Foden to score a try £5 @ 2.9
Back M Tindall to score a try £5 @ 4.1

Bank C/F 154

Bank 171 (plus probably 13 for the NZ v Can bet :-))

Australia have won the toss, and in Bengaluru that will mean lots of runs.
Mike Hussey plays and will have a point to prove - if he gets in, it seems likely that this will be a big score.

BACK Australia to score 300+ £20 @ 1.3

Bank 181

NZ on the way up, Canada on the way out having won their world cup final vs Kenya.

The bigger question is about the ground, this is the 1st game at the ground in this WC - and the ground wasn't ready until the last couple of weeks.

NZ blew away Kenya early in the competition, and with any assistance for swing/seam then could possibly do the same again. If Vettori is out - as widely publicised then the NZ bowler market is void.

Canada do not appear ot have any big hitters, Cheema may like to swing the willow but if, as in the last match he opens then there is less likelihood of the opportunity, Davison down the order can be explosive but if Canada are under the pump the the length of time at the crease may be limited.
On the other hand NZ have a number of biffers, Taylor, McCullum, Oram, Styris, Franklin, Guptill and they all like hitting early as well. If NZ bat first will top up the recommended bet with a back of more than 8 sixes ...

BACK Most sixes NZ  £10 @ 1.27

Bank 164

The battle of the big boys on the road that is Nagpur, expect lots and lots of runs.

Indias attack has not fired yet, and although the SA batting lacks a little depth as shown by the capitulation (on a bowling friendly pitch vs England) there is every chance that they will post 300+.

Indias batting has so much depth that it has appeared a little cavalier at times against the lesser teams, I suspect Tendulkar and Gambhir will be a little more circumspect today against the pace of Steyn but unless the pitch has become a spinners paradise there will be plenty of runs against the lesser bowlers.

This pitch has a history of big runs and therefore

LAY Total sixes 0-4 to win £10 @ 4.0 (risk 30)
BACK Total 4s Over 43 £20 @ 1.44 (to win 8.8)