mvaughan

There's only ever been one Test match played at Cardiff - the First Test of the 2009 Ashes series - so we don't have a huge amount to go on as regards assessing the wicket over five days. I did play a few county matches there over the years though and my memories of it are that it's a good batting track that doesn't really deteriorate so I'm expecting plenty of runs. If we cast our minds back to that Test in 2009 where England hung on for a priceless draw, it was more the pressure of the situation that saw wickets fall on the final day rather than any gremlins in the pitch. That said, if there's a bit of moisture in the air on the first day the new ball could swing and that obviously means James Anderson could become a huge factor; if England bowl first they'll need the Lancashire man to be on the money early on if they're to put Sri Lanka under pressure from the start because I suspect batting will become easier.

You have to feel for Tillakaratne Dilshan. In his first-ever Test series as captain he's going to have to do what no Sri Lankan captain has had to do for almost two decades: try and win without Muttiah Muralitharan in the side. Admittedly the spinner didn't take quite as many wickets in England as he did in other countries but there was always that fear factor about him and even on the flattest of tracks you always suspected a wicket was never too far away. To make matters worse Dilshan is also without Lasith Malinga, who has retired from Test cricket due to ongoing injury concerns. But some would say that, because the pace bowler has played so little Test cricket, he's not nearly as much of a loss as Murali.

Without those two and Chaminda Vaas, who also retired a while ago, I simply can't see Sri Lanka bowling England out twice, especially as it will take them some time to get properly used to conditions over here. That said, they do bat quite deep and in Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene they have three fabulously talented batsmen who can occupy the crease for long periods. England will have to make the most of any chances that come their way as regards getting that trio out.

Andrew Strauss has far fewer things to worry about. This is virtually the same side that won the Ashes a few months ago and these are of course conditions that should suit this side even more. The one player who Strauss may have a few concerns about is Kevin Pietersen, who by his own very high standards has been somewhat out-of-sorts. In the Surrey man's defence though, he did have a double hernia operation which is always tough to recover from, and his Test form has actually been pretty good. Pietersen's still averaged over 40 in the longest format of the game over the past two years. If you offered that to most Test batsmen around the world they'd bite your hand off. It's actually been in limited-overs cricket that he's struggled somewhat in but, if I know KP, he'll play his best cricket now that he's under a bit of pressure. He's just that sort of guy.

The forecast isn't great for the first couple of days with showers expected and that's the only thing that's putting me off taking the 2.08 on England. So the best way to play this is to back the draw now at 2.66 and lay off your bet if it goes odds-on. When you do that it may be best to keep most of your profit on England and a small green position on the draw with no loss (or win) on Dilshan's side. The weather could possibly save the tourists, as could an inspired second innings batting performance from one of those three I mentioned earlier, but I simply can't see them winning the match.

Recommended bet:
Back-to-lay the draw at 2.66

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It was a tough choice that Andrew Strauss and the England selectors had to make but in the end I think they got it right. It appeared to be a straight shoot-out between Eoin Morgan and Ravi Bopara for that middle-order slot that belonged to Paul Collingwood for so long and in the end they decided to go with the Irishman.

There were two good reasons as to why Morgan got the nod. The first was obviously to do with that majestic 193 he scored against Sri Lanka for the England Lions last week. Bopara was very much in the driving seat prior to that but despite playing no four-day cricket for a long time Morgan came to the crease and delivered when it mattered, in front of the men who mattered. The fact they gave so much importance to that innings also highlights the importance of doing well when you're called up to play for the Lions. Counties don't like it when their players are called up to play for them but, as far as I'm concerned, what matters most is the England cricket team. If players occasionally have to turn out for the Lions for the selectors to have a look at them, so be it.

The second reason is that Morgan hasn't had any failures in Test cricket. He hasn't played much but he's done well when he's been given a chance and, of course, the same can't be said of Bopara. He's been in and out of the side for a while now and being dropped time and again can't be any good for your confidence. I suspect he'll get at least one more chance in the Test arena to show us what a talented player he really is but I fear it may be his last. The Morgan selection is a bit of a gamble in the sense that Bopara has been bowling quite a few overs for his county recently and could provide a useful fifth bowling option, especially when that super India batting line-up come to town. But, all in all, I agree Morgan should have been the one getting the call-up.

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England blew a fantastic opportunity to get their second win of the ODI Series during the week and on Sunday morning they have one last chance to beat the Aussies. After that, they fly back home and have a grand total of three days in the UK before flying out for the start of the World Cup.

Yes, you read that right, three days. Is it any wonder that England have never won the World Cup when more often than not they have to take on the world's best on the back of a long Ashes tour? I know our lads in the army are sometimes away for four month spells - and I have the greatest of respect for them - but sport is a little different. Duncan Fletcher complained about how little recovery time we had in between the 2002-3 and the 2006-7 Ashes Tours and the World Cups but no-one listened. Or at least if they did, they didn't do anything about it. Andy Flower has spoken out once again and I sincerely hope that this time people listen to him for the good of English cricket.

Long tour or otherwise, Jonathan Trott has been England's outstanding player in these ODIs and whereas he may have been a doubt to feature in the World Cup during the summer, he's just about the first name on the teamsheet at present. He obviously loves batting up the order and he loves making big scores, match-winning contributions. If there was one small criticism I'd aim at him it would be that perhaps he doesn't score off enough balls. In other words, he's happy to play out a lot of dot balls early on in the innings because he's confident he can improve his strike rate once he's played himself in. Of course the problem with that is you run the risk of scoring slowly to start with and then getting out before you have a chance to make amends. But hey, Trott is still relatively new to ODI cricket and that's an area of his game I'm sure he's working on.

For what it's worth, I think this England team tick most of the boxes when it comes to being a very well-balanced 50 over side. Again, if I was to make one criticism of it it's that the two openers probably don't score enough big hundreds. But then again, not every side has the luxury of opening with Ghambir/Sehwag or Watson/Haddin! Well, that and the fact that with just two weeks to go I'm not sure anyone knows just who our best eleven is, the exact same problem we had back in 2007. Should Matt Prior open or should it be Ian Bell? Can we fit Trott, Bell, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood and Eoin Morgan into the same side? Where does Michael Yardy figure in the team? Or maybe he doesn't?

The best sides are often the most settled sides and right now, England can't de described as such.

The absence of Australia's rested duo Shane Watson and Michael Clarke is good news for England's prospects ahead of the final ODI but with injuries and fatigue aplenty for both sides I wouldn't want to try and pick a winner. Instead I like the look of Trott to outscore Callum Ferguson at around 1.8 and it may also be worth taking a punt that whichever side bats first scores in excess of 275 runs. After all, Perth tends to be a decent wicket and we've seen batsmen getting the better of bowlers for most of the Series.

Recommended bet: Back Jonathan Trott to outscore Callum Ferguson at 1.8

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There are plenty of ingredients you need to win a World Cup and one of them is a good, strong, experienced captain. I always think that this roles is even more important in limited-overs matches than Test cricket. After all, bowling changes, batting line-ups, fielding placements and when to take powerplays are often the difference between success and failure. The captain who gets most of them right often ends up on the winning side.

So who's the real deal?

I've already said India are my pick to win this tournament and the fact that MS Dhoni is the man in charge was part of my reasoning for that. It obviously helps that he's got a wonderful set of players at his disposal and a great balance to his side that always gives him plenty of options whether batting or bowling. But where Dhoni is better than most is that he's a pro-active captain. He doesn't wait for problems to emerge and then fix them, he tries to create problems for the opposition and give them something to think about. He's also a very laid-back guy and that helps to keep his players calm and collected.

Graeme Smith is a very different sort of captain, much more of a motivator. There's a lot of clapping and shouting when he's in charge but in fairness to him he's improved a lot when it comes to the tactical side of the game. Ok, he's not Mike Brearley just yet but he's always learning and he's far more resourceful and a far better thinker now than when he first took over.

Then there's Ricky Ponting. His critics will say that in Glenn McGrath, Matthew Hayden, Adam Gilchrist, Andrew Symonds and others he had such a wonderful set of players that it almost didn't matter who was in charge, but that's harsh on 'Punter'. Not every game they played en route to winning back-to-back World Cups under him were landslides and he made plenty of good decisions along the way that got Australia over the line. He's always been a strong leader and Australia have done the right thing by keeping him in charge for the World Cup.

As for Andrew Strauss, he's a fine captain himself but this is a results business and he needs to lead England to a big tournament win to prove he's as good an ODI captain as he is Test captain. Things aren't looking quite as rosy in the England camp as they were a few weeks ago after a pretty disastrous ODI Series so is now is the time for him to earn his corn and motivate his troops into becoming genuine World Cup contenders.

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It's a shame these last two matches have become dead rubbers now but the truth is England just haven't been at the races for most of this Series. The various injuries obviously haven't helped matters but England haven't really performed at all and have been very guilty of not doing the basics right. More worrying still, almost no-one is in good form and the ones who aren't injured look jaded and like they'd rather be elsewhere. And that's not good for their World Cup chances.

Andrew Strauss was heavily criticised for missing the tour of Bangladesh last year and vowed not to sit out England games in the future but in my opinion he didn't need to play the whole ODI series. Other than all of the on-field decision-making there's all the Media stuff and other miscellaneous commitments. You hardly have a minute to yourself and that wears you down. I know Andrew was on a big high after winning the Test Series and wanted to lead the ODI side as well. He did the right thing by sticking around for it but maybe he could have gone home after the third game when the Series was all but lost. The same can be said of the likes of Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood. I know Colly is desperate to find some form but sometimes a break from cricket with your feet up is the best way of getting yourself out of a slump.

The one guy I'm surprised not to have been given more of a chance is Luke Wright. Unlike Chris Woakes and Steve Finn, Wright is in the World Cup squad. So why is he not playing? I think Luke can consider himself pretty lucky to have selected but if that's the decision England have made them they need to give him some games so they can work out where he fits into their plans. His batting is ok but he can't be in the side just as a batsman and the truth is his bowling hasn't really improved over the last year or so and remains a little one-paced and predictable. Either way, if England have picked him, they need to play him now rather than throw him in at the deep end at the World Cup after spending the last few weeks carrying the drinks.

As far as this 6th ODI goes, there's only one way I can see England winning it and that's by batting first and posting somewhere between 280 and 300. It's tough batting second at the SCG in a day-nighter because the moisture late on causes the ball to zip through at greater pace. If you have proper quicks (which Australia do in Brett Lee and Shaun Tait) the short ball can be a lethal weapon and you can find yourself in a position where your top order has been dismissed with not many runs on the board. If England win the toss and post a big score then they have a chance to pull one back but I can't see their out-of-form batting line-up chase a big total themselves.

I'm not going to try and pick a top batsman for England because everyone is struggling so much that it would be no more than a shot in the dark but as far as Australia goes, Shane Watson still looks the man to side with at around 4.8.

My best bet of the match though is that no player on either side scores a century at around 1.6. Getting a ton in an ODI is difficult at the best of times but at a large ground where the team batting second will have to do so under lights, it will take a monumental effort for someone to get one.


Recommended Bets:
Back Shane Watson to be top Australian batsman at 4.8
Back "no century" at 1.6

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It's make or break time for England as far as this ODI Series goes and the last thing they want is to have to play three dead rubbers as a result of losing this one.

The absences of Stuart Broad, James Anderson and Graeme Swann through injury have understandably weakened the side but, ironically, it's been their batting that's let them down. Andrew Strauss, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Jonathan Trott and Eoin Morgan have all made starts at one stage or another but none have gone on and scored a century and tonnes win ODI matches. Just look at the impact the hundreds scored by Shane Watson and Shaun Marsh had on proceedings in the first two matches. One of England's top four needs to score a century or else I fear Australia will win yet again.

I've talked about who I think should open the batting with Strauss elsewhere but I think England need to stick with Paul Collingwood in the middle-order. He's struggling for form with the bat and has been since the start of the Ashes series but you always get the feeling with him that one good knock can radically change his fortunes. They're also a far more balanced side with him in the team because of the bowling option he gives you and what he brings to the party in terms of his fielding. 'Catches win matches' is one of those tired old cricket clichés but it's true, as is the fact that run-outs can also turn a game and saving boundaries goes a long way to putting pressure on the opposition. We all know how important Colly is when it comes to those three things.

A word on Samit Patel. It's hugely frustrating for England that he hasn't been prepared to do his bit to meet the minimum standards of fitness that the management set him as a goal. No-one asked him to run marathons, they just asked to see an improvement but he hasn't made the effort to put in the hard yards and has rightfully been snubbed for the World Cup. I've got no respect for players who aren't prepared to work hard. He's got all the talent in the world with both bat and ball and he'd make the perfect partner for Graeme Swann in terms of tying teams down in those middle overs, but he clearly doesn't want it enough. And that's a shame. For himself and for England.

Australia are carrying all the momentum here but each match has been relatively close and with the return of a refreshed James Anderson and Kevin Pietersen almost certain to play as well, I'm going to stick with them one last time.

Recommended bets:
Back England to win at 2.2
Back Andrew Strauss to be top England runscorer at 5.0
Back Shane Watson to be top Australia runscorer at 4.6

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I don't really like being asked to compare this England side with that of other eras. The quality of the opposition changes, the players change, pitches change, the role of technology in the game changes and even the way the game is played is somewhat different. Who would have thought ten or fifteen years ago we'd have Test matches where for large parts of the game batsmen are scoring at four an over for example?

My side of 2005 was an outstanding team full of really talented players and very strong characters. We weren't able to go on and successfully defend the Ashes in 2006-7 because of a number of factors, not least a bad run of injuries. In general terms, we didn't really build on that as many hoped we would after that outstanding 2005 success but it should never be forgotten that we beat one of the greatest Test sides to have played the game. It was certainly the 'team of a generation'. Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Damien Martyn, Adam Gilchrist, Ricky Ponting, Matthew Hayden - the list goes on and on - they were all there.

With all due respect to the English class of 2008-10, the Aussie side at the moment is a shadow of the team we were up against so rather than discuss whether my team would have beaten Andrew Strauss', it's a more productive task to consider to what extent this current team is going to kick on from here.

One of their main priorities will be to top the Test rankings, something they are more than capable of. As part of that process they will also need to beat India and South Africa away from home as it is these two teams and not Australia who present the greatest challenge in Test cricket at the moment. And if we're looking away from the longer format, England have to be looking at winning the World Cup in a couple of months' time as their next big target. They've done the business when it comes to T20 so there's no reason why they can't come top of the class in the 50-over format too.

One of the big things England have got going for them right now is options. Paul Collingwood may have played his last match for England, he may retire from Test cricket but play limited-overs matches or he may well play in all formats for a couple more years, we'll have to wait and see. What we do know is that there are plenty of other players knocking on the door. Eoin Morgan is an outstanding talent, Adil Rashid continues to impress for Yorkshire and if you follow county cricket you'll know there are plenty of other bright young prospects who the Selectors will be looking at.

Lastly, a word on Kevin Pietersen. Kev's a great guy and a wonderful player who has played a big part not just in this Ashes success but in all of England's recent successes. That said, I don't think there was any need for him to bring up the old issue of Peter Moores or his own short spell as captain as some sort of reason for why England are going through a purple patch right now. That's all in the past now and there are dozens of people both on the pitch and off it who have played an extremely significant role in getting English cricket to where it is right now so I don't see why individuals should be putting their hand up and taking credit for how well England are playing at present. This is an exciting time to be an England cricket fan and an England cricketer so KP should just worry about doing what he does best and that's scoring plenty of runs.


Read Michael Vaughan’s opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

As England rack up the runs on day two in Melbourne, Michael Vaughan can see no way back for the Aussies. He does however have some sympathy for Ricky Ponting.

After dominant performances with ball and bat, the fourth Ashes Test is England's all the way. I thought they were the value bet at the start of the Test and, after two terrific days, the Betfair market agrees, with Andrew Strauss' men in to 1.18 to win.

There is so much time left in the game and I think England can bowl Australia out again, probably for around 250.

There is so much pressure on the Aussies, they are playing with so little confidence and some players are playing for their places in the team. I can easily envisage them folding again in the second innings and concentrating on the fifth and final test, hoping for a fresh start in Sydney.

Over all, England have dominated. Australia recovered well in the third Test but there haven't really been any days in the whole series where fortunes have swung either way. One team has always been in control.

At 1.07, Jonathan Trott is almost certain to be England's first innings top batsman after scoring his fifth Test century on day two. There's no chance of England needing to bat again either so I won't be backing anyone in the England's second innings top bat market.

I'll back Chris Tremlett at 3.0 to be England's top second innings wicket taker. James Anderson is our best bowler and Tim Bresnan has performed well too but Tremlett gets extra bounce off what has so far been a good Test pitch and I expect his height to count again.

As for the Aussies, I believe the captain may yet come good at the crease. Rick Ponting is simply too good not to come to the party at some point, a player of his quality can't keep getting out cheaply and he needs a big innings.

As a former captain, I understand Ponting's frustration. He's been Australian captain for such a long time, he's under huge pressure and there is talk of disagreements over selections. I actually don't think the incident with umpire Aleem Dar was as bad as some people are making out. He's been fined 40 per cent of his match fee but some commentators have called for him to be banned, which is excessive. There has been an overreaction, he wasn't pointing his finger in the umpire's face and I think Peter Siddle got off lightly because he should have been nowhere near the conversation.

Ponting said before the series began that he would go if Australia failed to win back the Ashes. With England set to wrap up the fourth Test - probably by an innings and around 200 runs - and into 1.51 in the Series Winner market, I expect Sydney to be his final Test as captain.


Recommended bets:

Back Chris Tremlett @ 3.0 to be England's top second innings wicket taker
Back Ricky Ponting @ 5.0 to Australia's top second innings batsman

Read Michael Vaughan’s Ashes opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

There's been plenty of chat in the Media and amongst former Test stars about the conduct of the players during the Third Test. Too much sledging, exuberant celebrations at key moments, bowlers giving dismissed players the send off. It's over the top, it's not in the spirit of cricket, they say.

I disagree. This is the Ashes after all, the battle that English and Australian players grow up watching and dream of playing in. There's huge pressure and huge tension out there so it's normal that when a player wins a mini-battle, be it dismissing a key batsman or getting to a century, emotions are displayed. It's how players, for a brief moment, relieve the pressure.

As for sledging, this is Test cricket. If you can't take it and let it get to you, you're not cut out to be playing at this level. And remember, there's nothing in the rule book to say you can't give as good as you get! And it may feel like a rather lonely place when you're out in the middle with just your partner for company but at some stage you're going to be in the field yourself and the players who have been dishing it out will have to endure some 'mental disintegration' of their own.

For almost the whole of the Third Test Australia were on top and most of the celebrations and 'verbals' were coming from them. That's part of the reward that comes from being in command. If the tables turn at Melbourne I'm sure it will be the England players getting in the Aussies' ears. This has been a passionate and tough Series so far and that's great for the game but at no stage have I seen a player on either side overstep the mark.

Read Michael Vaughan’s Ashes opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/

England are the value ahead of the Fourth Test at the MCG but the form of Mike Hussey is a concern for would-be backers of the tourists. Either way, a draw is highly unlikely, says Michael Vaughan.


So it's all square again with two to play. The bad news for England fans is that Australia are the ones carrying the momentum, the good news is that this pitch should suit England a lot more than what they were up against at Perth.

I haven't actually seen the pitch yet but I'd expect it to have a little bit of grass on it early on and for it to flatten out a bit as the match progresses. It's very unlikely the ball will swing like it did last time or carry through with the same amount of pace and that should mean Mitchell Johnson shouldn't be able to have the same sort of impact.

England will want to bat first, get a big score on the board and hope that late on in the match Graeme Swann can weave his magic again. He looked out of sorts last time out and a little low on confidence but it wasn't a spinner's wicket in the slightest, you only have to look at the fact that Steve Smith didn't get a bowl at all for Australia.

Melbourne should present England with a better chance of winning a Test than Sydney so if they find themselves on top here, they really need to go for the jugular. At 3.35 England look better value than Australia at 2.46 but the incredible form of Mike Hussey worries me a little bit and because I think we'll get a result here, the call has to be laying the draw at 3.35.

As for first innings top batsman honours, I think it will be the in-form men coming good once more so my money is on Hussey and Ian Bell again.


Recommended Bets:

Lay the draw at 3.35
Back Ian Bell to be England top batsman in the first innings at 6.0
Back Mike Hussey to be Australia top batsman in the first innings at 5.5


(Read Michael Vaughan’s Ashes opinions by visiting http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/)