mvaughan

After a pretty disappointing winter in the UAE and Sri Lanka which included a whitewash and a hard-fought drawn series, England are back on home soil.

And we all know what that means - James Anderson, Stuart Broad and co. swinging the ball all over the shop and opposition batsmen edging the ball time and again into the grateful hands of Andrew Strauss and Graeme Swann in the slips. Well, that's the plan anyway.

A lot has been said about what went wrong during the winter so we won't go over all that again. Suffice to say this is a wonderful opportunity for England to whitewash an inexperienced West Indies side in their favoured conditions. Of the Windies' likely top seven, only Shivnarine Chanderpaul has experience of playing over here before. The little left-hander will be the key wicket and will make life tough for England's bowlers, but beyond him it's hard to see who is going to spend considerable time at the crease and get big scores.

I like both Fidel Edwards and Kemar Roach and they can both produce spells of rapid pace bowling. But using the cherry in English conditions is a skill that takes getting used to, especially at Lord's, venue for the first Test, where the slope provides a unique feature that can leave some of the finest bowlers in the game scratching their heads.

Unless one of the three Tests is heavily affected by rain and we lose more than a day's play, I can't see any outcome in the series other than a whitewash. So 3-0 to England in the Series score market at 2.7 is an obvious starting point as far as our wagers go.

James Anderson is for me the best fast bowler in the world with the possible exception of Dale Steyn. Bowling with the new ball in England in May against an inexperienced batting line-up, Anderson will feel like a kid in a sweet shop. Like all the best bowlers, he'll be targeting five-wicket hauls, not just the odd wicket here and there, and he looks the man to side with as the Series top wicker-taker at around 3.5.

A big element of England's success over the past couple of years has been consistency in terms of selection. It's been very much the same 12 or 13 players who have featured series after series and they've kept their places by performing. Eoin Morgan was probably the one player who didn't quite play to the level that both he and the selectors would have hoped and that's cost him his place in the Test side, at least for the time being. But the others have all contributed .

That said, we have a new face in the Test side - Jonny Bairstow. Whether he would have been selected ahead of a fit Ravi Bopara is something we may never know, but it's provided the Yorkshireman with a golden chance to prove he's ready to play at this level.

Bairstow's two biggest assets are that he seems to score runs for his county when they really need him to and that he is an extremely phlegmatic young man, nothing seems to faze him. In addition to that he can play the big shots, as well as being solid in defence, so all in all we have an exciting young prospect who looks to have all the assets to be a really good international batsman.

Lord's in May can be a tricky place to score runs. I'm almost certain the ball will swing early on so life could be tough for the openers on both sides. I don't think Andrew Strauss will be too fussed about the outcome of the toss because he'll be confident that his bowlers can exploit favourable conditions and that his batsmen have the experience to deal with the moving ball. But Darren Sammy may think his team's best chance is to bowl first and take early wickets to put England under pressure.

A win for Strauss' boys looks a sure thing to me at 1.47 but rather than take that short price, I prefer a punt that the match will end on the afternoon session of day four, at 9.6. I think England will be capable of posting a score of over 400 at least once, which will take time to compile, so I don't think it will all be over before the end of day three.

Batting may be tough early on so I'll be giving the top order a miss and siding with someone in the middle order for England top batsman honours. Kevin Pietersen would be an obvious choice but I actually prefer the chances of Ian Bell, who has been in fine county form and has a habit of scoring runs early on in a series.

Back England to win the series 3-0 @ 2.7
Back James Anderson to be top series wicket-taker @ 3.5
Back Afternoon Day 4 in the First Match Test End market @ 9.6
Back Ian Bell to be England First Innings top batsman @ 6.4

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England are in a prime position to win this match, simple as that.

I've never really had any concerns about the bowling; you'll have read me in this column saying England have the best Test bowling attack in the world. It's not often anyone scores more than 300 in a Test match against this bowling attack these days. The problem in recent months is that England have seldom come anywhere near to scoring that themselves!

This time it looks like it's going to be a very different story. Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook went out with a good game-plan concerning the sort of run rate they were targeting and what they considered to be their scoring areas. Strauss will have been disappointed to not have gone on and scored 100 but him and Cook have set up a good platform and the middle-order will come in with runs already on the board which will be good for their confidence. The openers have set the tone and shown the others how to play on this pitch without taking risks. I'd be very surprised if England don't post at least 400 in the second innings, currently available at 1.65.

A lead of over 100 could be priceless on this track because the wicket is going to get worse. If they are still batting at the close of play tomorrow they'll be in control of the game.

But scoring 400 is only part of the job because all the hard work will be wasted if they allow Sri Lanka to post a decent total to chase. I'm not entirely sure how many England would want to chase because we can't be sure how the pitch will play on days four and five so England's bowling attack will have to bear that in mind and make the most of the chances that come their way.

Tim Bresnan bowled well, Graeme Swann got it to spin a lot and James Anderson was at his brilliant best once again. A repeat of that performance and they should have no excuses for winning this Test and squaring the series. Strauss will have to be mindful about not being overly cautious because this is a match they need to win, a draw is no good whatsoever. But unless there's heavy rain I can't see that we won't get a result and all things considered England are actually a big price at 1.85 given they're very much in the driving seat just now.

2 pts Back England to score more than 400 in the first innings @ 1.65
1 pt Back England to win @ 1.85

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England will ring the changes ahead of the Second Test, a match they need to win to level the Series and stop the rot. The first is an enforced one with Steve Finn the natural replacement for the injured Stuart Broad. Finn did well in the ODI matches against Pakistan, which were played on a similar sort of wicket to the one he'll find at Galle so there's no reason why he can't be successful again here. I'm also expecting Monty Panesar to give way with Tim Bresnan coming in for him. With all due respect to Monty, Bresnan is the far better fielder and batsman and will take Broad's place at eight with Finn probably batting down at eleven. Unlike in Galle, there won't be a breeze in Colombo so bowling quickly will be even more hard work than it was last week - a three-man pace attack looks a good move to me.

Samit Patel will keep his place in the team and will probably have to get through more overs than he did last week as the second spinner but I'll be interested to see whether he carries on batting at seven, or is promoted to come in at six. For me the obvious thing to have done in the First Test would have been for him to bat above Matt Prior rather than change a settled batting line-up; the move may have somewhat dented Patel's confidence whereas I'm not sure Prior would have cared either way where he batted. Something for Andrew Strauss to think about.

Winning the toss will be crucial again because days one and two will be by far the best time to bat and the wicket will most likely deteriorate on days four and five, just as it did in Galle. The price of whoever wins the toss and bats first will come in on the back of that, no doubt about that. But because we obviously don't know who that will be, the smart bet is to lay the draw. Sri Lankan wickets have a reputation for being flat and lifeless but they do get worse as the match goes on and with quality spinners on show, in particular Rangana Herath and Graeme Swann, wickets can fall pretty quickly later on in the game, especially with DRS in use .That price of 2.9 has to go out at some stage and we'll surely be able to re-back it at 5.0 at some point in the game.

If the England batsmen want to have an idea of how to compile a century in sub-continental conditions then they should look at how Jonathan Trott did it in the second innings. It came off 250-odd balls and he needed to be at the crease for six or seven hours to get it . That's the sort of hard work you need to put in to get a tonne over here. You can't expect to score 100 off 150 balls by playing aggressively all the time like you can on some harder, quicker wickets. The sort you get in Australia for example. Trott is one of those players who gets a feel for a certain type of pitch and proceeds to cash in, just like he did last week. He now knows what his scoring areas are and when to play on the front or back foot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets another big score and is the obvious, but smart, choice to be England first innings top batsman at around 4.0.

Mahela Jayawardene is another guy who is in a rich vein of form, himself a centurion in the First Test. He made it all look pretty easy whilst others appeared to be playing on a minefield. The skipper is the man to side (4.5) with as far as Sri Lanka are concerned.

A final word on Andrew Strauss. I'm really not sure what this nonsense is about with suggestions he should walk away from his job as England captain. Yes, he hasn't made a big score in a while and England have lost four Tests on the trot but these things happen to everyone and he hasn't become a bad batsman or captain overnight. If he feels it's the right thing to do to give someone else a chance, he will. But it's up to him to decide when that may be, no-one else.

3 pts Lay the draw @ 2.9
1 pt Back Jonathan Trott to be England first innings top batsman @ 4.0
1 pt Back Mahela Jayawardene to be Sri Lanka first innings top batsman @ 4.5

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First things first. I've got no problem with the way England went about picking their XI. They chose the side that they thought gave them the best chance of winning the match and Samit Patel bowled well, taking two wickets on Test debut, which is a decent return. He misjudged the flight of a good delivery when he was batting but didn't look out of his depth at any stage. He didn't fare any worse than most of the England's batting order.

England's problems lay elsewhere. Firstly they let Sri Lanka off the hook last night - Monty Panesar twice dropping Mahela Jayawardene, who cashed in after being given two lifelines. You wouldn't expect any less from a player of his calibre. We'll have to wait and see just how important those extra runs he scored will be but they could end up making all the difference.

Secondly, England made a right hash of batting on what looks a pretty decent wicket. The England of a year ago would have posted 350 and put pressure on Sri Lanka, who would then be playing catch-up. To not match Sri Lanka's total on a decent wicket against a bowling line-up that is conventional and solid but lacks any true world-class performers was nothing short of criminal. Rangana Herath is a good spinner who doesn't bowl too many bad deliveries but England have made him look like Muttiah Muralitharan if his figures of 6/74 are anything to go by.

Andrew Strauss' side looks mentally scarred from that series against Pakistan. And if they were guilty of being too defensive and focusing too much on just on not getting out in the UAE, this time they've gone the other way and batted too aggressively. Erratically at times. There's been something of a mental failure, no doubt about that.

The only positives to come out of today's proceedings as far as England are concerned were that Ian Bell looks in good touch and that Graeme Swann bowled beautifully. The only reason they're still in with a chance of winning this match at all is because the Notts spinner took the prize scalp of Mahela Jayawardene, as well as the wickets of Kumar Sangakarra, Lahiru Thrimanne and Thilan Samawareera. He'll need to take quite a few more and do so pretty early on in the proceedings if England are to limit the hosts to anything that they could realistically chase.

It may just be worth taking a chance on England at 3.7 with a view to laying off at 3.0. This isn't a pitch that's easy to get used to and the two men currently at the crease -Dinesh Chandimal and Suraj Randiv - will have to start all over again. So a couple of early wickets could well be on the cards.

I see that a finish on day three is currently trading at odds-on and that may be worth laying. Sri Lanka may yet bat for another session and if someone like Alastair Cook or Jonathan Trott gets in they could hang around and just bat time, knowing that the longer they stay at the crease the more of a chance they have of chasing a total. Nothing silly, the runs will come naturally. We've seen those two play like that before and if they build a couple of good partnerships that may well be enough to take the game into day four.

Given the way the England top order (Bell excluded) managed to find ways to get out, I'm not sure any of them deserve my money behind them for second innings top bat honours! But Jonathan Trott rarely fails twice in the same match and if it's patience that is required to play a big innings here, then he's the man to side with.

1pt Back England at 3.7, lay off if they trade below 3.0
1pt Lay Test Match end Days One, Two and Three @ 1.98
1pt Back Jonathan Trott to be England second innings top batsman @ 5.0

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England were humiliated in the Test series against Pakistan. They went in as favourites and got whitewashed. But this isn't a team who will let defeat dent their confidence. They'll see this challenge as an opportunity to set the record straight and prove they can win a Test series outside England. After all, they're not the number one ranked team in the world for nothing.

The exclusion of Eoin Morgan from the squad is no great surprise. He's had plenty of chances in the longest format and hasn't really taken them so it's now up to him to go away, work on his game, learn from his mistakes and play well enough for Middlesex to win a recall to the Test team. James Tredwell's inclusion isn't a massive shock either. England are likely to play two spinners and, if either Graeme Swann or Monty Panesar gets injured in the build-up to one of the matches, Andrew Strauss and Andy Flower will be counting on the Kent man to come in and do a job.

Those who read my Betting.betfair column regularly will know that I always look at which team has the better bowlers when assessing who has the best chance of winning a Test match or series. This time it's no different. Sri Lanka's bowlers will obviously be more familiar with the conditions but I don't see who's going to come in and take the five-wicket hauls that you need to win a Test match. There's no Lasith Malinga to make the most of the new ball or Muttiah Muralitharan to bowl all day and put batsmen under pressure with virtually every delivery. Suraj Randiv and Rangana Herath are bowlers England won't have seen too much of but I can't see them ripping through the batting order in the same way that the Pakistan twirlers did.

I like England's bowling line-up a lot, mostly because of the variety it contains. Jimmy Anderson swings it both ways, Stuart Broad can bowl quickly and aggressively, Swann has been the best spinner around for a while now and Panesar bowled really well in the UAE after a long spell in the international wilderness. Then there's Steven Finn, Tim Bresnan, Samit Patel and the aforementioned Tredwell. They all offer something a little different which is exactly what a captain wants from his bowling attack.

As with the Pakistan series, I think the first session of the first day will be crucial. In these short series with just two or three matches the team who gets off to the better start is normally the one who goes on to win. But because we can't see into the future with that degree of accuracy we have to look at who has the more balanced side to deal with the challenges ahead. It's England who get the nod. The wicket at Galle tends to be a result pitch and I think England can win there and hold out for a draw in the Second Test to secure the series win.

Alastair Cook is a run-machine these days. He may have struggled in the Tests against the likes of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman but he tore those two, and anyone else who came in to bowl, apart in the ODIs. He can score runs on low, slow pitches and he can certainly play spin. He's the favourite to be England's top bat in the series but that's for a reason.

2 pts Back England to win the Series 1-0 @ 4.2
2 pts Back Alastair Cook to be England series top batsman @ 3.9

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Saturday night's match saw a match-winning knock from the rather heavy bat of Jonny Bairstow. I've spoken here before about how we have plenty of young talent coming through the ranks and this guy is one of the most promising players from England's next generation of stars.

I first came across him when I was still at Yorkshire. He was still a very young lad at the time but already he could hit the ball a lot further than anyone else at the county. What I like about him is that he tries to hit the ball straight rather than swinging across the line, which is always a temptation, particularly amongst the more inexperienced players. But he's also dead quick running between the wickets and has taken a couple of pretty sharp catches at important times of matches. Even more promisingly, he seems to score runs when the team really needs him to rather than when everyone else is also piling them on.

He can also keep wicket of course but I've been impressed with Craig Kieswetter during this Tour, not only in terms of his glovework but also the way he's slotted into the middle-order in the ODIs, whilst remaining his usual aggressive self at the top of the order in the T20 matches. So I think Bairstow's time as a keeper/batsman may have to be put on hold for the time being.

But he isn't just a big hitter who can carve out a career in limited-overs cricket. He'll have his heart set on a Test career too and having scored a double hundred in the County Championship already, there's no reason why he can't secure a place in England's middle-order over the next couple of years. I'm sure he'll be included in the limited-overs squad for the Sri Lanka tour but it may be a little too soon for a Test call-up just yet.

Back to the present and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bairstow ends up having an important impact on Monday's match. He's got used to these UAE wickets now and he certainly found the middle of the bat in the last game.

I fancy England to win the decider, the last match of a long Tour. Pakistan can be brilliant when they're at the races but more often than not, when the pressure is really on, they fail to play their best cricket. In all honesty, they've probably got the slight edge when it comes to the bowling but England have the far better batting options. No-one is in any particularly good form for Pakistan with the bat whereas the aforementioned Bairstow, Kevin Pietersen, Ravi Bopara and Craig Kieswetter all look in good nick. T20 is a batsman's game and I just fancy England's top order to fire here and for that to be the difference.

Speaking of top orders, KP and Kieswetter have played the powerplays pretty well and found the boundaries early on whereas Pakistan's approach has been a little haphazard and they've struggled in the first six overs when the ball has done a little. So I'm also backing England to get the highest six over score at 1.8.

3 pts Back England to win @ 1.8
1 pt Back England to have the highest 6 over total @ 1.8

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Kevin Pietersen is on a roll. Having gone 38 ODI innings without a century, spread over three years, he scored his second in two matches yesterday. And if his ton on Sunday felt a bit like a pressure-free exhibition of batting given the nature of the run-chase, yesterday's was a proper match-winning innings with England really up against it for the majority of the chase. It was almost a case of 'KP versus Pakistan' and maybe that's when he's at his best. I'm sure he'd tell you that was one of the most satisfying knocks he's ever played in ODI cricket.

Maybe the penny has dropped with Kevin Pietersen and he's worked out how to score an ODI ton as an opener. I never managed to do that. I either opened or batted at three and got to 50 often enough but, after that, I wasn't really sure how to get to 100. Accumulate runs steadily or put my foot on the gas and score quicker? I never had that problem in Tests. If I got to 50 I really fancied my chances of completing my century. But don't take my word for it, check the stats. 18 tons in Tests and none in ODIs from an almost identical number of games tells its own story!

Two things are for sure. Firstly I think that for the remainder of his career we'll see KP open the batting in ODIs and secondly he's the obvious choice to top score for England in the first T20. You've got to strike while the iron is hot and as an opener in sublime form against the same attack he's been destroying over the past few days, he's the smart option at around 4.0.

For what it's worth my England XI for this match would be: Pietersen, Kieswetter, Bopara, Morgan, Patel, Bairstow, Buttler, Swann, Broad, Dernach, Finn. A good blend of youth and experience and plenty of variety in the bowling as well as a lot of sharp fielders.

It would be just like Pakistan to come out and play brilliantly in this first T20 but we have to look at things logically. England are the better fielding side and whereas KP, Bopara and even Morgan have all been impressive with the bat, I can't really think of one Pakistan batter who has caught in the eye throughout the series. As for the bowling, maybe England have finally, finally learnt how to play Pakistan's army of spinners.

Again, it would be just like Shahid Afridi to come along and hit a match-winnings knock of 70 off about 40 balls when we least expect him to. If he does and Pakistan win, good luck to them. But I think England will win this game and they're actually a slightly bigger price than what I would have expected so at 1.85 they're a confident selection.

2 pts Kevin Pietersen to be top England runscorer @ 4.0
2 pts Back England to win @ 1.85

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I was pretty sad to hear the news that Ricky Ponting has been dropped from Australia's ODI team for the rest of the Commonwealth Bank series.

We're talking about one of the all-time greats here. One of the most prolific batsmen to have played the game, one of the most successful captains ever in all formats . Let's not forget he captained Australia to two World Cups and won another just as a player. And that's before we go into all of his achievements as a Test captain.

To be told that you're no longer up to it isn't the way his ODI career should have been ended. But maybe the selectors realised that calling time on his own career was never going to happen and that they had to push him. 'Punter' has called a press conference tomorrow and my gut instinct is that it will mean he'll retire from all competitive cricket with immediate effect. After all, if it was to just announce he was retiring from ODI cricket rather than try to get his place back, he would probably have just issued a statement.

Personally I hope he doesn't call it a day as a Test player. For all the battles I had with him during two Ashes series, he's a player I have incredible respect for. In fact, I'd go as far as saying I struggle to think of another player that I'd rather have on my side going into battle than Ponting.

More to the point: can Australia afford to be without his experience in the middle-order during this transitional phase? That's debatable. We'll have to wait and see what it is that Ricky has to say tomorrow in that conference but I certainly hope I haven't seen him play his last knock in international cricket.

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So England are 3-0 up and whatever happens in the last match, they will have gone some way to avenging that whitewash in the Test series. Make no mistake about it though: England will be desperate to finish this series on a high and make it 4-0.

It obviously helps when you've had a centurion in each of your three matches but the difference between the two sides in my opinion has been the bowling. Steve Finn has been superb and Stuart Broad, James Anderson and Graeme Swann have also been very impressive. Samit Patel and Ravi Bopara have done their jobs too.

At the moment I wouldn't take anyone's bowling attack over England's. And it's not just about those guys who are playing at the moment. Monty Panesar hasn't been involved in the ODIs despite playing really well in the Tests and Tim Bresnan hasn't had a game in the ODI series after returning from injury. It's some bowling unit that keeps 'Bres' out of the side.

There are two big reasons why I think England have a real chance of winning one of ODI cricket's two big prizes (ICC Champions Trophy or World Cup) over the next few years.

The first is that the use of two new balls plays into England's hands. The bowlers have struggled to make things happen in the past when it stops moving and the batsmen's runs have dried up when it becomes softer so both units will benefit from the ball staying harder for longer.

The second reason is that this group of players who have gone 3-0 up could be virtually the same XI who play in the next World Cup. The selectors may decide that Jonathan Trott makes way for someone like Jos Buttler or Jonny Bairstow so they have an extra big hitter but other than that, all these players are in for the long haul and I can't see any of them retiring from ODI cricket anytime soon.

Alastair Cook is beginning to look very dependable at the top of the order and if Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan peak at the right time when a big tournament comes up, England could be extremely dangerous because I don't have any concerns about their bowling.

As far as the fourth ODI goes, I think you all know where this is going. The one danger about backing England is that they may decide to give Buttler, Bairstow or Bresnan a game as reward for being part of the Tour and that they might find these pitches hard to come to terms with. If it was me, I'd keep the same XI and ensure they secure the whitewash. But even if there are a couple of changes, 1.92 is still worth taking at this stage. It's not easy to make a case for a side who is 3-0 down and rarely looked on top in any of the matches.

The other bet I like the look is for Pakistan to hit the most sixes. Alastair Cook, Bopara and in the last match KP have accumulated runs steadily but we haven't seen too many maximums. And it's only when they're really set that they'd think about going for one. Pakistan's batters think differently and it wouldn't be any surprise to see Shahid Afridi or Umar Akmal clear the ropes after just arriving at the crease. It may be scant consolation but that's a battle I'd fancy Pakistan to win.

3 pts Back England to win @ 1.92
2pts Back Pakistan to hit the most sixes @ 1.95

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I've said already that I don't expect this ODI series to be any easier for England than the Test series was. It will be played on the same pitches, a lot of the Pakistan players will be the same and spin will still be the name of the game. You can read my thoughts ahead of the whole series here.

But the one big different element England will have to contend with is Shahid Afridi. Say what you like about him: that he's too erratic, too excitable, too much of a risk-taker or too flamboyant. But he's also one of those players who has the ability to single-handedly win a match for you. He seems to do it less and less with the bat these days, which is ironic because it was as an explosive opener that he first made his name. He' still got the potential to guide his team home with a few flashes of that huge blade of course but it's as a bowler that he does most of the damage at the moment. And just as England took their eye off the ball somewhat when facing Abdur Rehman in the Tests because they were so concerned about Saeed Ajmal, so they will have to remember that Afridi is just as capable a wicket-taker as those two. It's one of those often-used sporting clichés...but dismiss 'Boom Boom' at your peril.

There's no doubt that both sides will want to bat first. Pakistan prefer to defend totals in general in this format and England will be worried that chasing a decent score will be tough with Pakistan's army of spinners, which in addition to the three I've mentioned, will also certainly include Mohammad Hafeez and possibly Shoaib Malik, too. I think anything over 250 will be a very decent total so it's a case of having that as a target and if you can squeeze some extra runs out of the last couple of overs to get you above that, it will be seen as a big bonus.

I think this is a match that will have a fair few twists and turns and should therefore interest the in-play traders. But if we're picking a winner right here, right now, I don't see that we can look beyond Pakistan. I've already talked about the fact they have better knowledge of conditions here and have the bowlers who are better suited to these wickets but to those two factors we can also add a certain apprehension about the fact that Pakistan managed to turn losing positions into winning ones in the Tests whilst England did the opposite. So Pakistan it is at 1.78.

Picking a top England batsman is too tricky a prospect at the moment because we're unsure about who will bat where. Kevin Pietersen looks set to open and there will be those who fancy who might fancy him against a new ball from each end. But if you think he's going to be getting juicy-half volleys at medium pace to put away, think again. Not only is Umar Gul one of the most accurate opening bowlers in world cricket, but there's every chance that he will open with a spinner at the other end. Mohammad Hafeez has often done that job before or Misbah Ul-Haq may decide to go for the jugular straight up and ask Rehman or Ajmal to perform the role.

Speaking of Hafeez, he's my selection for Pakistan top batsman. He'll definitely open and that may be the best time to bat. He showed some form in the Tests and may take his time to build a good platform from which others like Afridi and Umar Akmal can then build on with some more aggressive strokes. Hafeez certainly won't be in a hurry and I can see him compiling a patient 70 which could well be enough to win this top batsman contest.

2 pts Back Pakistan to win @ 1.78
1 pt Back Mohammad Hafeez to be Pakistan top batsman @ 5.0

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