Good afternoon.
It's been a struggle here this week at York but hopefully the Ebor will produce a winner.
Totally overlooked is Moyenne Corniche at a huge price.
He's 6 but has little mileage on the clock and this trip may well prove ideal. A good 5th to Tominater over 16f reads really well as does his placed form over 12 & 14f. His trainer thinks he will make the first four but feel he could go really close despite his stablemate being well ahead in the betting. He's won a 20 runner race back a while (his sole win) but he still looks capable of adding to that. 25/1 is a very big price given his form over 12 & 14f and feel he has a great e/w chance.
Another who is the perceived second string is Blissful Moment who looks capable of more and could also relish the step up in trip.
Lightly raced and going the right way he has been given a break after another good 2nd at Ascot.
Both selections look to have been given a break for this and feel they could both go very well with lots in their favour.
MOYENNE CORNICHE 1 POINT E/W AT 25/1 (BOG)
BLISSFUL MOMENT 1 POINT E/W AT 12/1 (BOG)
19 May 12
18 May 12
18 May 12
17 May 12
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Contrarian Handicapping
Comments: 2
Completely overlooked this one based upon number of Group races and fact that Ellison has trained it for only 10 months. Normally trainers have care of Ebor winners for at least two years.
Looking in hindsight at form it has similarities to Halicarnassus who returned to hcps after group runs to win Borough Hcp.
In fairness Moyenne has run very well in top hcps this year, especially The Plate which has provided quite a few Ebor winners.
Like the Ellison tactic with a drop to 10f after the Plate which managed a further pound drop in weight from a race he could never win. Also an intro to his first outing at York - which was another negative as no previous winner (since 1982) has come to win Ebor after latest run at York.