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Contrarian Handicapping
Good morning.

The Chester cup today and have decided at the prices to have a try with two runners who are burdened with wide draws today.

Swingkeel has been handed stall 17 which has never made the frame in the last ten runnings of this race !
However I am still going to give him a try at 33/1 which is a huge price as he has some very decent form over 16f + on g/f ground. Those figures read 121303 under such conditions and he was a very good 5th in this last year from stall 4 on good ground. He fits plenty of trends/stats of previous winners of this race and feel he worth a try at the odds. He is now with his new stable but connections have taken the step of booking Jimmy Fortune who was his regular rider when with John Dunlop. he will obviously need luck in running but don't feel he is the forlorn hope that the odds suggest and he has the form to have a leading chance.

My other pick is Mystery Star from stall 16. That stall has done somewhat better over the last ten years having won once along with a 2nd & 3rd and a 5th so is not insurmountable.
The selection is another that goes well on g/f ground. He has some decent pieces of placed form at class 2 level over 12f always staying on well at that trip. He's ran twice over 14f with the first time giving Akmal, a subsquent Group 2 winner 10lb and being beat just a length. The second time at the trip was at Wolverhampton carrying 10 stone where he won. This trip is a bit further ! but I'm speculating that he will stay the trip and am putting my faith in the trainer who obviously thinks he will !
The selection has ran at the track before with a good 2nd to Munsef over 13f and that track experience will help.
The trainer also has a very decent strike rate at the track of 9/37 (24%) which augers well.

I could of course have just wasted my money and time writing this but at the prices and despite the draws I feel both are worth a try today.


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