Diaz vs McGregor II

well this fight just got more interesting after that press conference! it's definitely personal now haha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZ-1fkPEwtU

Diaz looks in the best shape I've seen him, never ripped but plenty of definition this time. In contrast I didnt like McGregor saying he was substituting running for the bike as the bike doesnt "beat up the body as much".Sounds to me as if he's trying to cut corners.

Can't see Conor winning this or why he's favourite? 

People said the Aldo fight would show whether Conor was the real deal or not. But that was on the basis of it being a fight and going on for longer than 3 rounds with Conor taking hits. None of that happened and those questions still remain, moreso after he wasn't able to take hits from Diaz for basically one round (the second), a guy bigger and harder hitting than anyone he's ever fought before.

He's had a reach, height and weight advantage in all his fights pre-Diaz and now he gives all that up to a guy who can hit harder than any of his previous opponents and who has better jujitsu? Mentally Diaz must have the advantage too after the last fight, he knows he can hurt him. Still questions over McGregor going the distance in a proper scrap too.

I think McGregor's game plan will be to use his superior movement to strike without being caught and wear Diaz down over a few rounds, like the first round of the last fight but without going all out to knock him out. But that's all dependent on him not being caught by a big blow cos I don't think he has the chin to take one and Diaz seems well able to take hits for multiple rounds and even go the distance?

Just my thoughts, not an MMA expert or big fan. The hype about McGregor had him at 1.22 last time and there's still hype in 1.85 price right now.Can anyone explain that price to me? Didn't 20 out of 21 pros pick Diaz to win as well?

there's a lawsuit pending from the press conference apparently, dana said someone got hurt, and who know's how it'll play out. Both guys will get big fines though, but juxtaposed to the  payday both will be getting from this fight I imagine it'll be loose change to them.

mostly agree with you lurka. although I'm not sure diaz is a harder hitter than anyone conor's fought before.

diaz is more powerful than ppl give him credit for, his coaches have alluded to it, but I think a lot of it has to do with his accuracy and brilliant ability to throw punches at a lesser power so he is able to offer a lot more offence, which plays in to the mental game he plays inside the octagon to disrupt rhythm and breathing of his opponents. exactly what he did in the johnson fight before he fought conor.
another thing about diaz that get's overlooked is his speed, imo at least I think he's actually a pretty slow fighter, not very explosive in the slightest, he compensates for this very well, partly with his cast iron chin and cardio and then relies on out-gritting and grinding down his opponents cardio and will, with those pitter patter punches at low power and that he is able to choose the best time to up the power on shots when he sees an opening, kinda like when conor slowed down, he immediately saw this and realised he could turn the tables instantly. the thing that worries me about diaz's game is that it's a fairly elaborate style as he has a strength and speed disadvantage much of the time, and if any part of that chain is broken he finds it very hard to beat opponents of equal skill and superior speed/strength, and also his reliance on his chin which as we all know can completely fail a fighter at any time.

Both guys having a proper camp could make for a completely different fight, with diaz having more success on the feet early on, due to being a lot more focused and having the timing down from sparring in the camp which was completely absent in the first fight and instead replaced by tequila on a yaught the week prior. And for conor it's paramount that he has a good gameplan and doesn't fall into the trap's he did in the first fight where he relied on his power and severely underestimated the effect his weight gain would have on his cardio, pacing will be key in this fight for him and if I see him loading up on his shots early on I will be very tempted to live bet diaz.

one of the things that makes this fight so interesting to me is that after conor ko'd aldo he coined the phrase " precision beats power and timing beats speed " then against an opponent who he holds a noticeable speed advantage over he relied on the complete opposite of what got him that far in the first place. all he threw were power shots which surely made him tire quicker, he didn't utilise his beautiful technical boxing to full affect or to set up the big shots at all like we have seen in his other fights in the ufc,and he used his kicks poorly also, which surprised me because leg kicks are a surefire part of anyone's gameplan who has already beaten diaz before.
and so diaz despite his speed disadvantage was able to roll with a lot of them as he saw them coming. even when conor landed I think he got tunnel vision and overestimated diaz's chin. If conor is smarter with his gameplan I think there's the potential for him to completely outclass diaz if he's able to keep his cardio up for 5 rounds but that is a big question mark on conor's part.
I think conor's "weak chin " is slightly exaggerated, he was obviously gassed when diaz rocked him which is a lot easier to do if the person is too tired to defend properly and the shot lands clean. but against the bigger guy and a fighter who throws as much volume as diaz a tko isn't off the cards even though nate doesn't have many on his record, he easily could do as a lot of people he hurt bad with shots he subbed instead. and that's where another misunderstanding about this fight comes into play: conor's jiu jitsu or perceived lack of it.

we know he's been submitted before (admittedly a long time ago by duffy) but I think his ground game is serviceable, he trains with gunnar all the time who is a fantastic grappler, and he's brought in high class jiu jitsu guys this camp to better prepare himself. Where it get's cloudy is if he has the ability to grapple vs someone of diaz's calibur for a prolonged amount of time. and maybe more importantly for him if he can do it without gassing or avoid the ground if he gasses on the feet again. he did fine in the first round vs diaz when both were fresh even sweeping diaz and ending the round on top. but the ease with which diaz finished him once it hit the mat showed very different results from the exchange in the first round, and has to be worrying for the McGregor camp.

I'm not sure what to make of all the pre fight shenanigans tbh, nate being nate so that's not surprising but with conor's need for a good gameplan and the emotion he displayed makes me wonder if his head is in the right place, we've never seen conor fight with emotion and it's this that has made him famous for being great at making his opponents fight emotionally, this is literally what he built his ufc career on, and who knows how that will effect him (usually it's not a good thing) if at all. I'm a bit wary of betting this fight as a lot of people have this irrational desire to bet a lot more on big fights like this than they usually do for no other reason than it's a big fight. being such a big fight, nate could also be suffering from some of the symptoms that come with it, the added media obligations which he is not comfortable with in the first place. we've seen it countless times before, most famously with rousey so it's important that he manages his time well and doesn't let it change his approach or take away from his camp.

As Mike Goldberg hillariously said " it takes a lot of energy to be a rockstar"

I'm completely amazed however that diaz is the underdog, this is ridiculous and I can't get my head around the price movement's. conor's odds often get justified by the "irish money" that's bet on him but why this time that does not appear to be the case and yet he's still the favourite. It wouldn't surprise me if there's a big shift come fight time in the odds, and there's only 1 way they are going to go if they do.

I think nate ITD or conor KO are the 2 lines I'm taking. although conor's ko line is very short indeed. so might just take the diaz props. and keep an eye on his ML for any late shifts and freeroll's/arbs  GL all.

Nice post, Have to agree regarding the prices still can't have McGregor favourite for this. I think he should be around the 6/4 mark personally. Very interesting fight as you say will be a small bet on Diaz for me at the price's no need to go too big on a fight this big.

In regards the others fights there is an earlier fight with Chris Avila coming in for his first UFC fight he trains with both the Diaz brother's have seen some footage of him recently and he seems to be pretty technical in a similar build to Nate has a very good jab also tall for this weight division and uses the range well. The other guy Artem Lobov is coming in with a 0-2 UFC record hasn't been unto much in recent fight he trains with the McGregor camp an interesting fight maybe Avila maybe out of his depth but from the footage I have seen from him I can see him doing too technical for Lobov maybe taking it the distance for a points win.

On top of that I fancy Anthony Johnson to beat Glover. Wont be a betting medium for me as in terms of odds Glover's price maybe a tad too high.(Backed Aj a few months back to beat Bader at around 1.45 so the 1.55 to beat guy of this standard in Glover looks a tad shy. If he gets out of the first round then there could be trouble for Johnson has been known to empty the tank early on top of that Glover could be dangerous with his ground game a very good fight none the less. I still think AJ will come through to set up a rematch with Cormier after. Really looking forward to seeing Garbrandt fight tonight should be another win paving way for a matchup against D Cruz. Has some serious power this kid..

yeah both looked in good shape at the weigh in, money seems to be coming in on nate now, odds could even up here.

got a good feeling we're gonna see a great fight in cowboy vs story, if cerrone wins and conor does too, that would be the fight to make, probably why cerrone is on this card too. even if conor loses again, they can rematch nate and cowboy. both big fights.

Some gash that kid had over his eye there, almost as big as his eyebrow.

just cant see how mcgregor wins, diaz was in the end smashing conor and hurt him a few times ence why conor took diaz down ( massive mistake as hes a black belt under gracie ) so i dont see how mcgregor wins no way in hell diaz should be even money ive went in big tonight on diaz

diaz via submission for me

whos your money on in the lobov and avila fight razz? mcgregor v diaz team right there

uch regret the flyer I put on markos there, terrible IQ on the ground she should of been way more careful watching for that hook

I'd be surprised if conor started the fight swinging and just looking for the power shots again. would not be surprised if he regresses to that tactic though if he can't put diaz away early though.
I don't really want to see a 3rd fight either unless the fight is an great back and forth affair.

lobov showed some heavy leg kicks there, small confidence boost for mcgregor im sure. I wonder if artem's gameplan there in any way mirror's what conor is planning to do with the kicks...hmmm he should, diaz style is weak sauce vs leg kicks.

nate's very likely to have the cardio edge but imo it's a little overated, he looked tired as **** when he fought bendo for the title, same against rda, his cardio is no where near as good when he can't use it to grind down ppl.

wow codys a beast man watch out cruz hes coming for u

is only hope is to come out swinging like last fight and i dont think conor got burnt out at all he just couldnt hurt the taller and natural heavier fighter he found out sure u may be able to walk right through the featherweights and flattern them but at welterweight that aint gonna happen your up against bigger stronger guys than yourself, he cut diaz up and was tagging him but diaz took his best shots and didnt even buckle and soon  as diaz started to tee off on conor he buckled and went for a take down same thing happens for me diaz via either sub or tko/ko big bet on diaz for me

Any links to the fight lads,ty

http://vipbox.biz/boxing/watch-1rfca-ufc-202-fight-pass-prelims?l=1577377982