UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz/Holm vs Tate

conor looked great at the weigh ins, nate not so much, sucks because I'd love to see this fight with nate having a proper camp, I hope cardio doesn't play a factor but it's very possible

Good breakdown as always from robin black, for the McGregor fight, with brian stann as his guest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhdgveyJjik

McGregor LOOKED GREAT AT 168 ,2RDS AT THE MOST FOR DIAZ,

Diaz so stupid it's like it isn't even real

Agree Razz good breakdown such a shame Diaz hasn't had a proper prep.Diaz doesn't struggle against fighters with McGregor's profile but no prep time does makes it hard to commit to backing Diaz.
10.5 Diaz by sub on here and that's his best route to victory imo maybe a small play.
looking forward to the two ladies fights most I have been impressed with Shevchenko and think Cupcake has a live chance also.

prelims just started, ishihara with an impressive KO, Diego Sanchez vs Jim Miller could be an absolute war, that fight's headlining the relims. both guys need a win badly. FOTN mightbe a good bet there, either that or the 1st women's fight.

I have Sanchez (namely because Miller should never be a favourite at this stage of his career unless he's fighting someone very poor), Latifi (by Donkey Kong GnP, and Villante being a huge disappointment), Holm (Miesha isn't big enough to get her down or control her in the clinch and doesn't have the striking), McGregor.  I'd love to pick Diaz, but he clearly wasn't training hard without a fight announced, and looks nothing like the shape he was in for Johnson (he looked exceptional).  Looks really soft here.  Also said he hadn't sparred in 6 weeks when the fight was announced.  McGregor looks absolutely huge.  It wouldn't surprise me if he's heavier than Diaz on fight night.  That'll definitely come at the expense of cardio and recovery, but that's probably not going to be a factor against an out of shape Diaz.  Still think McGregor dodged a bullet vs RDA (no way he beats him).  Hopefully if McGregor puts on a clinic here, the delusional will pile in for a future RDA fight.  Connor has some kind of chance against Lawler, given how wild the latter is, but I think he gets absolutely mauled by Rory, Maia, Thompson, Brown, Lombard ... hope the UFC make the RDA fight.

to be fair too miller he's mainly fought high ranked guys his last 3 fights, he's on the downside of his career for sure, but what makes this so interesting is that diego seems to be in a very similar situation. Miller has an advantage in that he knows exactly what diego is going to do from the start to the end of the fight, not that diego is outclassed in any other area that's not his trademark brawling style, but he's optionally chosen to be a 1 dimensional fighter.
Another advantage miller has is the amount of miles on his body, Diego has taken FAR more punishment in his career, and 1 day it will catch up to his granite chin as he's been getting dropped a lot more in his last few fights against fighters he easily could of beaten back in his prime, I'm not sold that miller will be the one too crack that chin however. also diego is older but in the end I think he will get the job done but I don't have a good read on this fight. diego by decision If i had to guess

should be a great fight, Diego's one of my favorites, how can you not be a fan of him, he's bats/hit crazy in a good way as well haha

dieog with the takedown! intersting.

This might be a boring grindfest.  That takedown was WAY too easy for Diego.

yeah could be anticlimactic, we're so used to expecting chaos from diego though, miller looks better on the feet  so far imo

1 each.

good round 2, I got it 19-19, diego needs a takedown rnd 3 or he'll lose a dec I reckon

Miller looks totally gassed now ...

good fight! diego round 3 surely right?

2-1 Diego ... round 3 wasn't close imo despite what Rogan's saying.  Miller got popped over and over in rd 3.

elkins pressure too much for skelly who'll be hard rpessed to win the 3rd

Taleb looked fantastic.

Very composed, he Knew silva is dangerous but very vulnerable to big shots, Brian stann pointed out on twitter that it was a weird KO, was right on the forhead, which is rare.

thatch by ko maybe, siyar's had 2 years off, and he lost his last fight to jon howard who's one of the lower ranked fighters in the division these days. thatch can be flaky though..

Bet on Siyar, but amazed how loose and good he looks after such a long break.  He should really throw some of those huge power shots to the body ... pretty sure he'd have ended Thatch in the second if he had.

hah never woukda guessed a sub, really impressed with siyar, thatch's ground game is garbage compared to his stand up. Nice live odds on siyar :) I looked jim up quickly before the fight, apparently he trains with the blackzillians so he has top class training, thatch I think trains at a small team if i remember right. could of been a KO on either side early in the fight, but thatch the flake strikes again...shame because he has so much potential with his standup.

shevchenko nunes next, should be a good one

Thatch is one of Schaub's pals from Denver, so don't think it's a small team, per se.

They were talking about him on Rogan's podcast earlier this week, but can't remember exactly what they said about his team etc.

I think it's a team that lacks other high ranked fighters, could be wrong I can't remember either, yeah they were talking about thatch's dad as well, that's where he got his stand up from. I think his dad trains him as well.

Those scorecards in the lawlor fight were BS how did they give cory round 1 after lawlor dropped him....makes absolutely zero sense, It wasn't as bad as that ashlee evans smith/marion reneau score the other week but close..

Villante looks gassed.  Think that body shot hurt him.

missed most of that fight, my eyes are going already, villante looked rocked a few times, easy latifi decision from the parts I saw

can't see miesha winning, but still approaching this one with caution, holm cost me huge vs rousey, the 1.35 is tempting though.. miesha's going to be at a big strength disadvantage, her best way to win imo could be to grind out a decision with her grappling in the hopes holly's cardio fails in the later rounds. Holly has a pretty big weight cut so it's possible that could play a factor, but I can't see how miesha takes holly down

That eye's going to close up quickly if Holm keeps landing the jab on Tate ..

was thinking the same, as she's had her orbital broken before, 10-9 holly

WoW! did not see this coming!

That was an awful round for Tate after such a dominant second one ... I think she landed one glancing punch to Holm's shoulders and that was it ...

Tate has to go for broke even if she plays into Holm's hands and gets knocked out.  She's landed absolutely nothing for 2 rounds now.

yep, 39-37 holm I got it, possible judges coulda given rnd 2 a 10-8  but I doubt it. miesha feeling that size disadvantage now

Also she sounds like she can't talk properly and is winded ... that kick might have damaged her windpipe.

or her implant

Whatever the result I bet Rousey is fired up for the first time in a while

holy shiiit!!!!!

wow

damn that's insane! holm was cruising to a win! crazy..

90 seconds left, that's anderson vs chael **** right there!

could we get another huge upset?! not betting this, nate could do better than ppl think but who knows

Triangle choke on its way.

I'm hoping for adraw, got a nice freeroll on that, 220/1 here's hoping hah

Anything can happen in this game

1st round ko by conor is a big fav, not touching that tho

diaz sub or decision would be nice

gotta wonder how soon the cardio will come into play if at all

I backed sub

Get in my son

gtfi!!! WAR DIAZ!!!

conor back to 145lbs

arrogance is a wonderful thing .... he stood and traded in a wild brawl with a Diaz brother ... who has considerable length on him, better chin and cardio and he was fighting 20lbs heavier in the cage than he ever had before.  i suppose some credit is due in that he came to entertain and fight, but he probably won't ever be the same after that, and he can absolutely forget ever getting a title shot at 155lbs.

Can only be spoon fed for so long

also his earning potential just went off a cliff.

he gassed out because of that extra muscle imo, conor's never been that big, it's too much for his frame..

Massive props to nate, that's a big feat with his limited camp, great night $$ wise for nate I'm sure..he deserves it, he took a lot of big shots in round 1, weathered the storm and didn't freeze under the spotlight like many thoguht he would. I was skeptical of that conor KO price with diaz's chin, he's only been finished once by a head kick from hell by josh thompson who may be the most underated lightweight in history

he'd have gassed anyway, fighting like that.  he was swinging wildly with his feet planted.  as soon as nate starting landing to the face and body towards the end of the first round, the writing was on the wall.  fighters always 'gas' vs the Diaz brothers if they play a game of testing each others' chins.

Diaz's reach definitely helped him, it was a pretty fast pace they were setting as well, It would of been better for conor if the fight was at 155 but no time for diaz to shed the weight.

Connor was overreaching and getting popped when he tried to get in range.
Remember he's still champion but he like Holly he met his kryptonite.

I guess he'll be forced to defend the 145 belt vs frankie any other fight is BS now.

I guess UFC 200 is condit-lawler rematch now

McGregor vs Edgar & Tate vs Rousey possibly

Still, at least tickets will hopefully be a bit cheaper now

Ye looks that way with Wboy fighting Rory.I bet Frankie will be very pleased.

Aldo already called him out on Twitter 'Nowhere to run now. Time to rematch, ****'

no one wants to see aldo rematch, let him fight holloway or someone as a warm up fight, Edgar is the number 1 contender.

taped it and watched it back epic stuff abit gutted about holm getting going to sleep with the sub but mesha deserves it altho rousey probs thinking man i shoulda just taken holm down LOL the hardcore fans wont be surprised to see diaz tap out mcgregor as hes a black belt in bjj under cesar gracie the hype trains over it would seem back down to fight edgar would seem the best fight

Was never going to be easy moving up the divisions. Comical that Connor was 1.2 favorite. Woke up this morning to a well fattened wallet

lmao mugregor made a fecking arse of himself

OnePercenter
Yes your aftertime is very comical,this game is easy with hindsight.

I wonder if he's open to negotiation on that 80/20 split in his favour with Mayweather now seeing as his key to the kingdom is rusty.

What price was mcgregor at the off and how low did he go in play

i would have thiught his price would of got bigger from the off.

dont know jasey , from what i heard  he had the better of the first round

Someone said he was 1.05ish at end of R1, not sure if that's correct.

I think he was about 1.22 at the off, and in play i could be wrong but somewhere about 1.16-1.18 after round 1(possibly a tick or two lower) but definitely not 1.05 that's ridiculous. the 1st round was very close, and no where near the dominating score many were giving to conor. Initially I thought conor won it easy but upon re-watching it(and not just the finish) It was actually a lot closer, he only sealed the round with top control at the end imo.

McGregor handled this loss brilliantly, for all those hating on the guy without giving him props for going up 2 weight classes is dumb. the last person to do that is all time great bj penn, can you imagine mighty mouse fighting in conor's division, can you imagine RDA fighting at middleweight? he got his ass handed to him by the better fighter but deserves respect for what he attempted. He's still a gigantic draw as well, and now so is Diaz.