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14:50 Chepstow
1 Amulet 33.28 8.4 25/1
2 Bursledon 8.94 3.15 7/1
3 Hail Promenader 5.2 1.9 7/2f
4 Bobs Her Uncle 8.29 2.9 6/1
Result 96.7% 11 ran
NR: Rock Anthem
1 Amulet 33.28 8.4 25/1
2 Bursledon 8.94 3.15 7/1
3 Hail Promenader 5.2 1.9 7/2f
4 Bobs Her Uncle 8.29 2.9 6/1
Result 96.7% 11 ran
NR: Rock Anthem
| FOX NORTON |
Won and 4th from two runs in France [forums French correspondent Stewarts Rise will probably update us all on the value of the form lines], when interestingly partnered by James Reveley but still at the time in the care of Nick Williams [same owner too]. Both runs had soft in going description so unsure as to how he will handle the good ground here [sunny day Friday and watering overnight so may end up on firmer side of good, which obviously we won’t know until after race, but a fair guesstimate].
The odd hurdling blip has been noted in his close ups, and a hard one to get an angle on, so perhaps a market glance to assist.
| KITCHAPOLY |
Previous comment - Ex French with 4 runs there and now one here. Respectable 2nd when made fav fto here and the 4th that day Aficionado, beaten some 57l, won nto at Sedgefield on Thursday. Has the experience edge here but also has an inexperienced 7lb claimer on and has to give a stone away [exc claim] to the bottom 4.
Ran as well as could be expected above at Huntingdon. Not one of Donalds stars but does get the assistance of Jason Maguire for the first time here, though obviously the 7lb claimer allowance which has helped last twice is lost. Form ties in with a couple here, but personally would be a disappointed if he returned the victor.
.
| TOWN MOUSE |
Previous comment = Brave £12k claim out of Hughie Morrison considering horse is a veritable nutcase! Flat exploits include controversial Catterick run after carting M Lane a circuit and 2 NH runs resulting in a P and U after red card behaviour. Despite all the above has ability and reached OR65 on the flat like a few in here. The ‘calming’ hood is retained here [didnt work lto] and his paddock and to post demeanour should be noted. There may be a key to him but equally he may have gone the wrong way.
Above refers to pre race at Huntingdon which he went on to win well, pulled hard enough and gave the impression he would have loved to have ducked out at the last two fights but went on to win. There is no telling whether he would be up for it again he, but on the balance of probabilities regarding his demeanour on the day, combined with the more compelling fact that last time he was off 10.7, with the second on 11.12, whereas now, with the penalty and the loss of the conditionals allowance, he is now only 3lb off top weight here, makes this a much more difficult task.
.
| COULOIR EXTREME |
2 from 10 on the flat in/from same barn, peaking at OR80. Both wins at Windsor 10f and 12f suggesting should stay here. G Moore won recent Juvenile hurdle with Orlas Rainbow to give them some yardstick, which could be market reflective. Surprisingly still l a colt and beaten on the flat by Durable Man [both improved after]. Also did finish last and 2nd last on last two flats runs the latest 24 days hence.
.
| DOUBLE JEOPARDY |
Previous comment - From mainly flat yard and in 4 attempts in that sphere showed little including in blinkers (x2). Owner /Breeder gave up and now trainer owned after above and before sole attempt to date at NH when no show at 50/1
Huntingdon run above and did see step up from first NH appearance but still behind two that re oppose here and hard to envisage a reversal.
.
| DUROBLE MAN |
Ex Roger Varian flat with one win from 9 runs peaking at OR86. Sole win was at Brighton 10f G/S [beating Couloir Extreme and like that one was last on his latest flat run. Gone to good jumping yard in A King who probably ran Katchit in this race [cant be @rsed to check that fact].
.
| JUBILEE GAMES |
Dual winner at 2 but nowt at three and a declining OR which peaked at 80. 8f longest distance run and sired by Pastoral Pursuits. Flat owners retain as does mainly Flat yard
.
| ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR |
Ex Ballydoyle and a flat winner from only three runs. Runs over 12/13/14f suggests staying is his game and gone to top yard so must be respected here as a 10l winner of his maiden and subsequent defeat was in a 10k race
.
| HI CANDY |
Looks yard first string in front of below. 5 run maiden on the flat only reaching OR51 after three runs at 6f at 2. Better already NH, with a win and 3rd from 2 outings. 20/1 fto and not disgraced in 3rd to be beaten by one of the earlier Juvenile hurdles yardsticks in Akdam. Won well on next run beating the re-opposing here Kitchapoly, but 9lb worse off. Interesting that win was over near 18f furlongs which will help here over the 17f. Additionally the time of the win was equal to the older hurdle later in the day and for trivia lovers it was the same race Countrywide Flame won previously [subsequent Triumph winner]
.
| SHESNOTFORTURNING |
In days gone by the Haslam barn was the go to one for early Juvenile hurdle winners, alas the change from Pat to Ben has somewhat changed that . Here we have a plating filly off the flat who was only on OR35 2 runs backs. 5 runs in all over 5 [3] and 6 [2] furlongs only suggests stamina doubts here, apart from the ability element.
.
| BETTING FORECAST - 9/4 Royal Irish Hussar, 3/1 Duroble Man, 7/1 Fox Norton, 7/1 Town Mouse, 8/1 Kitchapoly, 9/1 Couloir Extreme, 10/1 Hi Candy, 12/1 Jubilee Games, 50/1 Double Jeopardy, 66/1 Shesnotforturning |
.
| CONCLUSION |
Best Juvenile Hurdle race of the season so far and the 17f will mean the newcomers will have to stay round here, No ground worries and it’s a case of the 5 with experience v the 5 without. If split down the middle the Henderson one would head the newcomers list but will represent little betting value. In the hope that he or other newcomers don’t perform and to buy a
bit of value I will take a chance that Hi Candy flat figures are history and the NH game is for her . She heads the list of those who have run with me and therefore an EW interest is the way to go in the hope she does go on and a few of the newcomers don’t take to the game.
.
| HI CANDY – 1 point e/w |
.
| FOX NORTON |
Won and 4th from two runs in France [forums French correspondent Stewarts Rise will probably update us all on the value of the form lines], when interestingly partnered by James Reveley but still at the time in the care of Nick Williams [same owner too]. Both runs had soft in going description so unsure as to how he will handle the good ground here [sunny day Friday and watering overnight so may end up on firmer side of good, which obviously we won’t know until after race, but a fair guesstimate].
The odd hurdling blip has been noted in his close ups, and a hard one to get an angle on, so perhaps a market glance to assist.
.
| KITCHAPOLY |
Previous comment - Ex French with 4 runs there and now one here. Respectable 2nd when made fav fto here and the 4th that day Aficionado, beaten some 57l, won nto at Sedgefield on Thursday. Has the experience edge here but also has an inexperienced 7lb claimer on and has to give a stone away [exc claim] to the bottom 4.
Ran as well as could be expected above at Huntingdon. Not one of Donalds stars but does get the assistance of Jason Maguire for the first time here, though obviously the 7lb claimer allowance which has helped last twice is lost. Form ties in with a couple here, but personally would be a disappointed if he returned the victor.
.
| TOWN MOUSE |
Previous comment = Brave £12k claim out of Hughie Morrison considering horse is a veritable nutcase! Flat exploits include controversial Catterick run after carting M Lane a circuit and 2 NH runs resulting in a P and U after red card behaviour. Despite all the above has ability and reached OR65 on the flat like a few in here. The ‘calming’ hood is retained here [didnt work lto] and his paddock and to post demeanour should be noted. There may be a key to him but equally he may have gone the wrong way.
Above refers to pre race at Huntingdon which he went on to win well, pulled hard enough and gave the impression he would have loved to have ducked out at the last two fights but went on to win. There is no telling whether he would be up for it again he, but on the balance of probabilities regarding his demeanour on the day, combined with the more compelling fact that last time he was off 10.7, with the second on 11.12, whereas now, with the penalty and the loss of the conditionals allowance, he is now only 3lb off top weight here, makes this a much more difficult task.
.
| COULOIR EXTREME |
2 from 10 on the flat in/from same barn, peaking at OR80. Both wins at Windsor 10f and 12f suggesting should stay here. G Moore won recent Juvenile hurdle with Orlas Rainbow to give them some yardstick, which could be market reflective. Surprisingly still l a colt and beaten on the flat by Durable Man [both improved after]. Also did finish last and 2nd last on last two flats runs the latest 24 days hence.
.
| DOUBLE JEOPARDY |
Previous comment - From mainly flat yard and in 4 attempts in that sphere showed little including in blinkers (x2). Owner /Breeder gave up and now trainer owned after above and before sole attempt to date at NH when no show at 50/1
Huntingdon run above and did see step up from first NH appearance but still behind two that re oppose here and hard to envisage a reversal.
.
| DUROBLE MAN |
Ex Roger Varian flat with one win from 9 runs peaking at OR86. Sole win was at Brighton 10f G/S [beating Couloir Extreme and like that one was last on his latest flat run. Gone to good jumping yard in A King who probably ran Katchit in this race [cant be @rsed to check that fact].
.
| JUBILEE GAMES |
Dual winner at 2 but nowt at three and a declining OR which peaked at 80. 8f longest distance run and sired by Pastoral Pursuits. Flat owners retain as does mainly Flat yard
.
| ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR |
Ex Ballydoyle and a flat winner from only three runs. Runs over 12/13/14f suggests staying is his game and gone to top yard so must be respected here as a 10l winner of his maiden and subsequent defeat was in a 10k race
.
| HI CANDY |
Looks yard first string in front of below. 5 run maiden on the flat only reaching OR51 after three runs at 6f at 2. Better already NH, with a win and 3rd from 2 outings. 20/1 fto and not disgraced in 3rd to be beaten by one of the earlier Juvenile hurdles yardsticks in Akdam. Won well on next run beating the re-opposing here Kitchapoly, but 9lb worse off. Interesting that win was over near 18f furlongs which will help here over the 17f. Additionally the time of the win was equal to the older hurdle later in the day and for trivia lovers it was the same race Countrywide Flame won previously [subsequent Triumph winner]
.
| SHESNOTFORTURNING |
In days gone by the Haslam barn was the go to one for early Juvenile hurdle winners, alas the change from Pat to Ben has somewhat changed that . Here we have a plating filly off the flat who was only on OR35 2 runs backs. 5 runs in all over 5 [3] and 6 [2] furlongs only suggests stamina doubts here, apart from the ability element.
.
.
.
| BETTING FORECAST - 9/4 Royal Irish Hussar, 3/1 Duroble Man, 7/1 Fox Norton, 7/1 Town Mouse, 8/1 Kitchapoly, 9/1 Couloir Extreme, 10/1 Hi Candy, 12/1 Jubilee Games, 50/1 Double Jeopardy, 66/1 Shesnotforturning |
.
.
.
| CONCLUSION |
Best Juvenile Hurdle race of the season so far and the 17f will mean the newcomers will have to stay round here, No ground worries and it’s a case of the 5 with experience v the 5 without. If split down the middle the Henderson one would head the newcomers list but will represent little betting value. In the hope that he or other newcomers don’t perform and to buy a
bit of value I will take a chance that Hi Candy flat figures are history and the NH game is for her . She heads the list of those who have run with me and therefore an EW interest is the way to go in the hope she does go on and a few of the newcomers don’t take to the game.
.
,
,
| HI CANDY – 1 point e/w |
.
| Horse | Deltá | RP | % Diff |
| a | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| b | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| c | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| d | 5 | 8 | -3 |
| e | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| f | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| g | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| h | 9 | 1 | 8 |
| I | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| j | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| k | 20 | 8 | 12 |
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