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jjh's flatstats picks

2/1/12 Southwell

02 Jan 12 04:40
Been combining two valuable bettings angles lately and it seems to really work well.

Two come up today-

1:50 @ Southwell-

Global Village and Ill Batista.

Both fancied runners, but both look very strong.

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23/11

23 Nov 11 08:56
River Bow Arch finished 3rd.

-1pts

Total from 21 bets= +9.13pts

ROI= +43.48%


Lingfield-

1:40 bareback, Lancaster gate, widyaan,

2:10 cotton trader, isthmus,

Unless there is a non runner in the 1:40, I will leave that race out.  With 3 runners, one fancied and two outsiders, it is tempting, but I am far from convinced you can profit backing anything more than two selections in a race. 
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22/11

22 Nov 11 08:05
Southwell-

1:40 bow river arch,

Just the one today after a couple of days off from the AW racing.

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update

20 Nov 11 12:24
Nice result yesterday, 14/1 winner, 17.0 on BF.

+14.15pts

Total from 20 bets= +10.13pts

ROI= +50.65%


NO AW today or tomorrow, so will check for any bets on Tuesday.

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19/11

19 Nov 11 14:22
Total from 18 bets= -4.02pts

Hallmark Star ran well at 13/2, finished 3rd. 

This is one of the problems with outright win betting, the losing streaks can be quite hard to take given you can pick good value selections that put in a good race, but only place.  You just have to ride through the 'variance' as it were, you need a little bit of luck along the way and the edge you are applying will show itself after a better sample.

Lingfield-

2:25 young dottie,

Wolverhampton-

7:50 Dartford,
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18/11

18 Nov 11 12:54
Total from 17 bets= -3.02pts

ROI= -17.76%


Vale of Lingfield was 3rd, but it ran a really good race and was only just held.  Went off at 16/1 SP with 19.0BFSP.

Just one today-

Kempton-

4:05 hallmark star,

Will only follow two maximum per race now, 3 or more in the outright win market is just a bad bet IMO.

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16/11

16 Nov 11 08:05
Kempton-

6:10 obliterate,

Lingfield-

12:50 vale of lingfield,
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12/11

12 Nov 11 12:44
3.10 winner yesterday from the 4 bets

-1.06pts

Total from 12 bets = +1.98pts

ROI= +16.46%


Wolverhampton-

7:50 cotton trader, muhamme, mutarjim,

3 come up today, despite saying I won't follow more than 2 in a race, the shortest price from these is 4.0+, with 9+ and 17+ for the other two, so I'm going to include the 7:50 race tonight @ Wolverhampton. 



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11/11

11 Nov 11 01:01
5 bets= -1.08pts

Total from 8 bets= +3.03pts


Got the two winners on 9/11 but should never really follow a race where there are more than two potential backing bets.  In the backing market, every selection you add takes away value from your bets.

Two of the 25/1 shots ran well, one was 4th, but from now on will set the maximum number of selections to back at 2 per race.

3 bets today-

Lingfield-

1:25 lupo d’oro,

Wolverhampton-

5:35 Dubai sunshine,

6:45 shihab, kittens,

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9/11

09 Nov 11 06:53
Kempton-

5:20 arch villain, shiek the reins,

5:50 kalokogathia, Nassau storm, rassam,

(excuse the spelling Laugh)

Not really a big fan of such short priced selections but they come up strong, will do win bets on those and play the larger selections EW.

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