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15 Mar 25
15:35
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Jun 08
Occasional blog on Irish racing that I hope that I can maintain as time passes and “reward” anyone one clicks on the moribund “Irish Sports” forum
Identifying “sleepers” in interesting stables has long been a winner-finding strategy for me and the most obvious way in can be the Irish classics where initial nominations are required months in advance. I’ll try to identify the shrewd over the “Hail Mary” but the horses I identify will have hopefully shown some level of ability in their early paces. All go into my tracker.
Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas – 24 May 2025
When I did some blogging on trainer entries some years ago it always struck me that certain yards seemed obliged to enter valuable colts and fillies in graded-level contests based more on owner expectation that raw ability. I venture that this hasn’t changed much in recent times and money has been squandered for dubious reasoning.
The pickings are slim to start but will pick up as I expand my horizons.
J S Bolger
Jim Bolger, in his twilight years, had a very poor season last year (9 winners operating at a 4% strike-rate) and I couldn’t have his two unraced colts Carnsore Point (Blue Point) and Slaney Drive (New Approach) on my mind. In recent years he still appears to have the some “loyal” punting followers but they will have been skint for a long time.
Jessica Harrington
Had a respectable 2024 with some of her two-year-olds and much will be hoped for with Hotazhell and Green Impact.
An unraced entry catches the eye in the shape of Collecting Coin (Lope de Vega) who may have been very well-bought at just 52,000gns last May. She’s the first foal out of an unraced Acclamation mare whose five siblings to see the racecourse have all won and their RPR’s average 99 which is a very good return indeed. This looks an out-and-out sprinting family so I would be looking at these distances rather than the Classic ranges. (Note to Mrs. H: please run three times over 7f+ and drop back to sprinting trips when ready to win.)
John Murphy
A bit “in and out” John Murphy did very well with White Birch last season and I hope that they have a successful 2025 together. I’m concerned Murphy’s strike-rate with 3yo flat performers is just 6% over the last 5 years but it may be worth noting Crosshaven (Cable Bay), although cheaply bought at 13,000gns at Tatts Book 3 in 2023, has changed hands (to remain in the yard) to one of Murphy’s long-standing loyal patrons Mrs. Regalado-Gonzalez. This is probably a longer-term prospect but he is well worth following for 2025 and into 2026 as Murphy’s forte is older flat horses.
The only other unraced entries hail from Ballydoyle and Rosewell and they have never displayed much finesse with their expensive entry costs.
Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas – 25 May 2025
H De Bromhead
A once-raced Bated Breath filly, Minaun View, looks of interest. Owner, Stephen McCarthy, who has had horses with Henry over the last 10 years or so must be looking forward to the coming season. The ownership/trainer combo had its best result in 2020 when Minuan won the G3 Marble Hill Stakes providing both with their first Group winner on the flat.
Sourced by Cormac Farrell and sent to Knockeen Stables after (fortuitously?) failing to sell at the 2024 Craven Breeze-Up, her pedigree is light on good sibling performers but her dam (by Beat Hollow) is a mile G3 winner from a nice family; certainly, a page that offers encouragement.
On her only highly-tried run to date she finished a 5L 6th in a 7F Dundalk Listed contest that obviously encouraged the Guineas entry. This is her Racing Post assessment:
“Minaun View was thrown in at the deep end after winning a 7f barrier trial at Leopardstown in impressive fashion and ran with credit on her racecourse and AW debut. She has a bright future ahead of her on this evidence and she should stay further in time.”
Very much one to look forward to.
Jessica Harrington
An unraced filly I’m interested in based purely on the owner’s pedigree albeit the filly is well bred and the dam cost €320,000 at Arqana breeding sale in 2019. To date she has produced an 87-rated middle distance winner (of two foals to race). Mittens (by the classy Night of Thunder) is Harrington’s only unraced entry in this fillies classic in which she still has ten entries.
She was bred by Hamwood Stud who have decided to retain her for their broodmare band (presumably) and that Stud has close connections with the Dunne Stores retail family. Frank Dunne always had an interest in matters bloodstock (Stanerra, for one) so it may be that direct connection. I’m of the view that she’s not an idle entry as Dunnes would not be synonymous in wasting their millions. A “suck-it-and-see” project.
Emmet Mullins
An unraced filly,Jerpoint Abbey (by Justify) – a well-known ancient religious ruin near Gowran Park – receives my maximum attention and is from an intriguing source, to say the least. Mullins is ultra-shrewd and rarely mistakes a goose for a swan.
Unfortunately for Mullins she seems to have missed a breeze-up engagement last May having being bought at Fasig-Tipton seven months earlier for $275,000. He may have unloaded her to her current syndicate but the Guineas entry is eye-catching. Her pedigree is American and she’s not too distant to the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Distaff 9f winner.
Joseph O’Brien
A home-bred from David Nagle’s Barronstown Stud should never ignored even if the owner is mostly retired. Named after a famous wildlife reserve in South Africa which has always been Nagle’s happy hunting ground (!) so whI think this premium name for this daughter of Justify, Tswalu, is significant. Big names and reputations don’t always equate to greatness but I’m happy to follow this filly with significant cash. When I tell you she is a grand-daughter of 2001 Irish 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby winner Imagine (by Sadler’s Wells out of Doff the Derby) you can tell I’m drooling.
She’s seen action once at two finishing 6th in a Cork maiden but obviously far more was expected as she started at 7/4. Reviewing the race, the run can be ignored in my view as she had a nightmare outing yet stayed on nicely at the business end with the much-loved in-running comment of “never nearer”.
I can’t wait to see her re-appearance and I’ll make the trip to see her.
P Twomey
Somewhat akin to Jessica Harrington, Paddy Twomey seems to have an eye for fillies. Unraced, City Of Memphis (Sioux Nation), definitely caught his eye as he went to €370,000 to secure her at a Tatts Ireland Breeze-Up (Goresbridge of old) sale last May giving Katie Walsh a cool €300,000 profit on her pinhook. Chapeau, Katie!
She has five winning siblings of six to race yet the odd one out was second in three of his six starts so almost a nap hand. An average RPR for the sextet of 86 gives this filly every chance and money down from this source doesn’t often fail.
J A (Fozzy) Stack
Fozzy has left two in this one-mile Classic and both are worth noting.
Bay Colony (New Bay) cost an eye-watering €480,000 at Goffs Orby in 2023 presumably on the basis her dam is a half-sister to a disqualified Guineas winner and there’s plenty of strong black type on her page. Stack also trained her half-sister by Starspangledbanney who, interestingly, won her one and only race in her first start in a 3yo maiden at Cork in April 2023. (Could lightning strike twice?) Her best subsequent runs were two second placings in Curragh and Leopardstown Group 3’s.
Her Floridian owner, Craig Bernick, whose main bloodstock interests are in Ocala and the family’s fortune derives for what used to be my favourite shampoo Alberto VO5 until I started losing my rug.
Unusually for a filly keeping her Guineas entry, she has run three times and has a mark of 89 which, initially, seemed stiff to me compared to an RPR of 83. This is on account of seemingly over-performing when highly-tried in a Curragh G3, beaten almost 6L into 5th. On reflection and review of the race, she ran far better than her final placing and offered much encouragement for a 3yo career and they may have put her away for 2025 after that August 2024 run. There’s enough future form in this race to encourage supporting this filly on her re-appearances and the Stack horses are renowned for being ready early. She could provide excellent sport in the spring and early summer.
The second Thomastown Castle representative is Varshini (Night Of Thunder) who ran just once last July when 5th of 11 in a Curragh maiden at 25/1. RP comment: a filly with a Moyglare entry, was another to run a nice race for a long way. She didn't quite enjoy luck in running when she was travelling well. She should improve a good deal.
A €90,000 purchase from Flash Conroy’s Glenvale Stud nursery she is now owned by Fitri Hay and Coolmore’s Paul Shanahan. Of her 5 siblings to race, four are winners and the average RPR is 92 which suggests “quality”.
A review of her debut run over 7f suggests she was boxed in for along periods of the race, came to challenge a furlong down and ran out of steam late. Trips of 7f+ will suit.
Identifying “sleepers” in interesting stables has long been a winner-finding strategy for me and the most obvious way in can be the Irish classics where initial nominations are required months in advance. I’ll try to identify the shrewd over the “Hail Mary” but the horses I identify will have hopefully shown some level of ability in their early paces. All go into my tracker.
Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas – 24 May 2025
When I did some blogging on trainer entries some years ago it always struck me that certain yards seemed obliged to enter valuable colts and fillies in graded-level contests based more on owner expectation that raw ability. I venture that this hasn’t changed much in recent times and money has been squandered for dubious reasoning.
The pickings are slim to start but will pick up as I expand my horizons.
J S Bolger
Jim Bolger, in his twilight years, had a very poor season last year (9 winners operating at a 4% strike-rate) and I couldn’t have his two unraced colts Carnsore Point (Blue Point) and Slaney Drive (New Approach) on my mind. In recent years he still appears to have the some “loyal” punting followers but they will have been skint for a long time.
Jessica Harrington
Had a respectable 2024 with some of her two-year-olds and much will be hoped for with Hotazhell and Green Impact.
An unraced entry catches the eye in the shape of Collecting Coin (Lope de Vega) who may have been very well-bought at just 52,000gns last May. She’s the first foal out of an unraced Acclamation mare whose five siblings to see the racecourse have all won and their RPR’s average 99 which is a very good return indeed. This looks an out-and-out sprinting family so I would be looking at these distances rather than the Classic ranges. (Note to Mrs. H: please run three times over 7f+ and drop back to sprinting trips when ready to win.)
John Murphy
A bit “in and out” John Murphy did very well with White Birch last season and I hope that they have a successful 2025 together. I’m concerned Murphy’s strike-rate with 3yo flat performers is just 6% over the last 5 years but it may be worth noting Crosshaven (Cable Bay), although cheaply bought at 13,000gns at Tatts Book 3 in 2023, has changed hands (to remain in the yard) to one of Murphy’s long-standing loyal patrons Mrs. Regalado-Gonzalez. This is probably a longer-term prospect but he is well worth following for 2025 and into 2026 as Murphy’s forte is older flat horses.
The only other unraced entries hail from Ballydoyle and Rosewell and they have never displayed much finesse with their expensive entry costs.
Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas – 25 May 2025
H De Bromhead
A once-raced Bated Breath filly, Minaun View, looks of interest. Owner, Stephen McCarthy, who has had horses with Henry over the last 10 years or so must be looking forward to the coming season. The ownership/trainer combo had its best result in 2020 when Minuan won the G3 Marble Hill Stakes providing both with their first Group winner on the flat.
Sourced by Cormac Farrell and sent to Knockeen Stables after (fortuitously?) failing to sell at the 2024 Craven Breeze-Up, her pedigree is light on good sibling performers but her dam (by Beat Hollow) is a mile G3 winner from a nice family; certainly, a page that offers encouragement.
On her only highly-tried run to date she finished a 5L 6th in a 7F Dundalk Listed contest that obviously encouraged the Guineas entry. This is her Racing Post assessment:
“Minaun View was thrown in at the deep end after winning a 7f barrier trial at Leopardstown in impressive fashion and ran with credit on her racecourse and AW debut. She has a bright future ahead of her on this evidence and she should stay further in time.”
Very much one to look forward to.
Jessica Harrington
An unraced filly I’m interested in based purely on the owner’s pedigree albeit the filly is well bred and the dam cost €320,000 at Arqana breeding sale in 2019. To date she has produced an 87-rated middle distance winner (of two foals to race). Mittens (by the classy Night of Thunder) is Harrington’s only unraced entry in this fillies classic in which she still has ten entries.
She was bred by Hamwood Stud who have decided to retain her for their broodmare band (presumably) and that Stud has close connections with the Dunne Stores retail family. Frank Dunne always had an interest in matters bloodstock (Stanerra, for one) so it may be that direct connection. I’m of the view that she’s not an idle entry as Dunnes would not be synonymous in wasting their millions. A “suck-it-and-see” project.
Emmet Mullins
An unraced filly,Jerpoint Abbey (by Justify) – a well-known ancient religious ruin near Gowran Park – receives my maximum attention and is from an intriguing source, to say the least. Mullins is ultra-shrewd and rarely mistakes a goose for a swan.
Unfortunately for Mullins she seems to have missed a breeze-up engagement last May having being bought at Fasig-Tipton seven months earlier for $275,000. He may have unloaded her to her current syndicate but the Guineas entry is eye-catching. Her pedigree is American and she’s not too distant to the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Distaff 9f winner.
Joseph O’Brien
A home-bred from David Nagle’s Barronstown Stud should never ignored even if the owner is mostly retired. Named after a famous wildlife reserve in South Africa which has always been Nagle’s happy hunting ground (!) so whI think this premium name for this daughter of Justify, Tswalu, is significant. Big names and reputations don’t always equate to greatness but I’m happy to follow this filly with significant cash. When I tell you she is a grand-daughter of 2001 Irish 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby winner Imagine (by Sadler’s Wells out of Doff the Derby) you can tell I’m drooling.
She’s seen action once at two finishing 6th in a Cork maiden but obviously far more was expected as she started at 7/4. Reviewing the race, the run can be ignored in my view as she had a nightmare outing yet stayed on nicely at the business end with the much-loved in-running comment of “never nearer”.
I can’t wait to see her re-appearance and I’ll make the trip to see her.
P Twomey
Somewhat akin to Jessica Harrington, Paddy Twomey seems to have an eye for fillies. Unraced, City Of Memphis (Sioux Nation), definitely caught his eye as he went to €370,000 to secure her at a Tatts Ireland Breeze-Up (Goresbridge of old) sale last May giving Katie Walsh a cool €300,000 profit on her pinhook. Chapeau, Katie!
She has five winning siblings of six to race yet the odd one out was second in three of his six starts so almost a nap hand. An average RPR for the sextet of 86 gives this filly every chance and money down from this source doesn’t often fail.
J A (Fozzy) Stack
Fozzy has left two in this one-mile Classic and both are worth noting.
Bay Colony (New Bay) cost an eye-watering €480,000 at Goffs Orby in 2023 presumably on the basis her dam is a half-sister to a disqualified Guineas winner and there’s plenty of strong black type on her page. Stack also trained her half-sister by Starspangledbanney who, interestingly, won her one and only race in her first start in a 3yo maiden at Cork in April 2023. (Could lightning strike twice?) Her best subsequent runs were two second placings in Curragh and Leopardstown Group 3’s.
Her Floridian owner, Craig Bernick, whose main bloodstock interests are in Ocala and the family’s fortune derives for what used to be my favourite shampoo Alberto VO5 until I started losing my rug.
Unusually for a filly keeping her Guineas entry, she has run three times and has a mark of 89 which, initially, seemed stiff to me compared to an RPR of 83. This is on account of seemingly over-performing when highly-tried in a Curragh G3, beaten almost 6L into 5th. On reflection and review of the race, she ran far better than her final placing and offered much encouragement for a 3yo career and they may have put her away for 2025 after that August 2024 run. There’s enough future form in this race to encourage supporting this filly on her re-appearances and the Stack horses are renowned for being ready early. She could provide excellent sport in the spring and early summer.
The second Thomastown Castle representative is Varshini (Night Of Thunder) who ran just once last July when 5th of 11 in a Curragh maiden at 25/1. RP comment: a filly with a Moyglare entry, was another to run a nice race for a long way. She didn't quite enjoy luck in running when she was travelling well. She should improve a good deal.
A €90,000 purchase from Flash Conroy’s Glenvale Stud nursery she is now owned by Fitri Hay and Coolmore’s Paul Shanahan. Of her 5 siblings to race, four are winners and the average RPR is 92 which suggests “quality”.
A review of her debut run over 7f suggests she was boxed in for along periods of the race, came to challenge a furlong down and ran out of steam late. Trips of 7f+ will suit.
Show More
TY
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Gowran Classic (3yo)
The first early closer of 2025 apart from the first four Irish Classics.
Red Scarlet (Waldgeist) R P Cody
Interesting to see Cody give this Ballygallon home-bred an entry in this 9.5f stake.
Based on four runs at two she has definite ability and, interestingly, in three of her four runs she met with interference and can be marked up appreciably from a generous-looking mark of just 76 which was actually 5lbs lower prior to revision. There is plenty to play with here.
Her pedigree is pretty nice as a first foal of dam who is a half-sister to a 10F Group 3 winner and three other winners. Cody is a good trainer and gets the best out of his charges and if you looking for another filly he trains to follow I would recommend Lady Lunette who did me a turn at Leopardstown last July when the money was down. Connections believe she can win again and plumped for a 5yo racing season over the covering shed. Some black type would be the icing on the cake.
If I have one wish here it’s that a good handicap mark should be taken advantage of as in 2023 Cody plumped for a Gowran maiden run with Lady Lunette which she duly won but a mark of 72 was never availed of as she got 12lbs for that fillies maiden victory. I hope history is not repeated with Red Scarlet.
Cooley’s Mist (Churchill) Natalia Lupini
The dam of this filly is the 2015 Zoffany mare, Lady Scathach, who won five handicaps for Tom McCourt in 2019 and 2020, improving from a basement level rating of 45 to a high of 71. McCourt will have been disappointed not to train her first foal, the afore-mentioned Cooley’s Mist and it seems this unraced filly has impressed Lupini as she holds an entry for this Gowran “Classic”.
Lupini is no slouch at this training lark and a relative hobby from 2015 to 2020 has taken off spectacularly since with annual winners of 5, 14, 16 and 12 from 2021 to 2024. She has already trained 3 winners in 2025 and is a trainer to keep firmly on side and one cannot but be impressed with a five-year strike-rate of 14% and one of the very few trainers in profit over this period. From Milan, with little history in bloodstock her partner, Craig Bryson, spent his formative years in Ballydoyle.
Another unraced filly entered by Lupini is the Le Havre filly, Lady McC, and represents a similar switch of trainers as in previous years one would expect Tom Gibney to train for Haigney Bloodstock. This filly is a full-sister to two winners rated 98 and 75 and another winning sibling rated 82 (of five to race). Her dam originally cost 550,000 guineas due to her proximity to the French superstar Goldikova so investing just €36,000 for this filly seems sound business to me.
Bright Night (Study Of Man) W McCreery
Flaxman Stables (Maria Niarchos) and McCreery partnered in the past with Fiesolana the 2014 Matron Stakes (G1) winner and they have been loyally sending McCreery horses since. This filly is a half-sister to three winners (average RPR’s of 102) so she could be a prospect especially as her dam is related to five stakes winners.
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Gowran Classic (3yo)
The first early closer of 2025 apart from the first four Irish Classics.
Red Scarlet (Waldgeist) R P Cody
Interesting to see Cody give this Ballygallon home-bred an entry in this 9.5f stake.
Based on four runs at two she has definite ability and, interestingly, in three of her four runs she met with interference and can be marked up appreciably from a generous-looking mark of just 76 which was actually 5lbs lower prior to revision. There is plenty to play with here.
Her pedigree is pretty nice as a first foal of dam who is a half-sister to a 10F Group 3 winner and three other winners. Cody is a good trainer and gets the best out of his charges and if you looking for another filly he trains to follow I would recommend Lady Lunette who did me a turn at Leopardstown last July when the money was down. Connections believe she can win again and plumped for a 5yo racing season over the covering shed. Some black type would be the icing on the cake.
If I have one wish here it’s that a good handicap mark should be taken advantage of as in 2023 Cody plumped for a Gowran maiden run with Lady Lunette which she duly won but a mark of 72 was never availed of as she got 12lbs for that fillies maiden victory. I hope history is not repeated with Red Scarlet.
Cooley’s Mist (Churchill) Natalia Lupini
The dam of this filly is the 2015 Zoffany mare, Lady Scathach, who won five handicaps for Tom McCourt in 2019 and 2020, improving from a basement level rating of 45 to a high of 71. McCourt will have been disappointed not to train her first foal, the afore-mentioned Cooley’s Mist and it seems this unraced filly has impressed Lupini as she holds an entry for this Gowran “Classic”.
Lupini is no slouch at this training lark and a relative hobby from 2015 to 2020 has taken off spectacularly since with annual winners of 5, 14, 16 and 12 from 2021 to 2024. She has already trained 3 winners in 2025 and is a trainer to keep firmly on side and one cannot but be impressed with a five-year strike-rate of 14% and one of the very few trainers in profit over this period. From Milan, with little history in bloodstock her partner, Craig Bryson, spent his formative years in Ballydoyle.
Another unraced filly entered by Lupini is the Le Havre filly, Lady McC, and represents a similar switch of trainers as in previous years one would expect Tom Gibney to train for Haigney Bloodstock. This filly is a full-sister to two winners rated 98 and 75 and another winning sibling rated 82 (of five to race). Her dam originally cost 550,000 guineas due to her proximity to the French superstar Goldikova so investing just €36,000 for this filly seems sound business to me.
Bright Night (Study Of Man) W McCreery
Flaxman Stables (Maria Niarchos) and McCreery partnered in the past with Fiesolana the 2014 Matron Stakes (G1) winner and they have been loyally sending McCreery horses since. This filly is a half-sister to three winners (average RPR’s of 102) so she could be a prospect especially as her dam is related to five stakes winners.
Interesting thread RA - I will read and occasionally comment on it. Pleasing that Ray Cody got a mention. A trainer local enough to me, and one who is hugely underrated.
Brilliant write up Royal , most enjoyable , I'm sure a lot of thought and hard work went into it....I shall pop in and keep a eye out for those runners....
That write up reminds me of the style of someone who used to post up detailed stuff like this here a few years back (about the Wildmanfromborneo time--(but not him).
Nice to have a decent thread here again.
Nice to have a decent thread here again.
Mar 23, 2025 -- 2:40PM, punchestown wrote:
That write up reminds me of the style of someone who used to post up detailed stuff like this here a few years back (about the Wildmanfromborneo time--(but not him).Nice to have a decent thread here again.
It reminds me of it too. Must be about a decade back. All the best, RA, and thanks for sharing.
I am not a Flat person, but applaud the effort
anything to stimulate the forum into life welcome
this place used to be great
anything to stimulate the forum into life welcome
this place used to be great
Was it Stamford Bridge who used to do the detailed write ups?
Good read ra thanks for making the effort perhaps you could write a book on the Irish superstar horse big goosey 
Thanks guys.
I love the early 3yo maidens run in Ireland as they can be a source of rich pickings. Only by close race study, some knowledge of a trainer’s modus operandum and evidence from previous years can we make educated guesses as to what horses might improve after finishing down the field in the these races. Some may win maidens subsequently but I much prefer to cast my line in more murky handicap ponds. Giving them outings on Grade 1 or 2 tracks should mean something!
A case in point the first 3yo+ fillies 7f maiden run on the opening day at the Curragh every year. As usual, I’m a little late with this update but I’m pleased to say that although I’m late to the party this year - the old Irish tax year deadline of 5th April – there has been no subsequent winner from 11 runners…yet! My research covers 2021 to 2024 and seems worthy of some effort. As may be evident, I won't have some trainers on my mind so it makes the selection process a little easier.
In studying this particular race I am looking for future, unseen handicap performers ideally trained by a trainer below the radar and names such as Magee, Fahey, Barrett, Fitzgerald, Grassick, Flynn, Murphy, Hogan, Halford and Browne illustrate my point. It’s an annual jigsaw that requires great patience and there are two important factors that I discount when considering whether they may be a bet in future in handicaps namely a) the horse must not have a handicap mark coming into the race and b) generally ignore its chance if it is a complete rag in the market. The first disqualifier signifies a horse well tried at two whilst the second can assume that if it is a longshot in the race its previous runs are an indication of its ability. The latter can be excused somewhat if it has shown promise in an earlier handicap run and the stable/owner may not be interested in gambling so the name of the game is subjectivity. I make one exceptions for Mrs John Harrington – why in the name of god can’t she use her own name? – who has unplaced runners in the last four years and all have won subsequently.
So what of the 2025 race?
These are my qualifiers:
2nd: Copacabana Sands (Michael O’Callaghan): significantly upped in class in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in late March where she was very unlucky. A certain future winner and looked quite classy. (On reflection, she came into this race rated 76 having run 5 times at two for a Diego Diaz and improved substantially for O’Callaghan. Handicap mark now ruined (ish) and I won’t be taking a short price.)
5th: Gotomylovely (Fozzy Stack): owned by the best connections, she ran abysmally subsequently at Leopardstown after problems with a slipped bit. This may be to our advantage in time as she will have a modest rating when assessed for handicaps and a target might be the Kerry tracks in time where the Stacks love a winner.
6th: Echinea (Kevin Coleman): virtually a one-man-band, Coleman has given his syndicate investors/owners some really tasty returns in recent years where demand for placed maiden performers make great returns for export. Every effort will be made to upgrade this filly so I suspect getting her well-handicapped will be the last bead on the rosary. I have a contact in the stable so I should get some extra detail in time.
Other qualifiers that go on my dark horse tracker are Thakera (Denis Hogan), Vega’s Muse (Jessica Harrington), Real Petite (Tom Mullins) and Curroy Lady (Mark McNiff). These four selections should be a challenging and rewarding follow.
I love the early 3yo maidens run in Ireland as they can be a source of rich pickings. Only by close race study, some knowledge of a trainer’s modus operandum and evidence from previous years can we make educated guesses as to what horses might improve after finishing down the field in the these races. Some may win maidens subsequently but I much prefer to cast my line in more murky handicap ponds. Giving them outings on Grade 1 or 2 tracks should mean something!
A case in point the first 3yo+ fillies 7f maiden run on the opening day at the Curragh every year. As usual, I’m a little late with this update but I’m pleased to say that although I’m late to the party this year - the old Irish tax year deadline of 5th April – there has been no subsequent winner from 11 runners…yet! My research covers 2021 to 2024 and seems worthy of some effort. As may be evident, I won't have some trainers on my mind so it makes the selection process a little easier.
In studying this particular race I am looking for future, unseen handicap performers ideally trained by a trainer below the radar and names such as Magee, Fahey, Barrett, Fitzgerald, Grassick, Flynn, Murphy, Hogan, Halford and Browne illustrate my point. It’s an annual jigsaw that requires great patience and there are two important factors that I discount when considering whether they may be a bet in future in handicaps namely a) the horse must not have a handicap mark coming into the race and b) generally ignore its chance if it is a complete rag in the market. The first disqualifier signifies a horse well tried at two whilst the second can assume that if it is a longshot in the race its previous runs are an indication of its ability. The latter can be excused somewhat if it has shown promise in an earlier handicap run and the stable/owner may not be interested in gambling so the name of the game is subjectivity. I make one exceptions for Mrs John Harrington – why in the name of god can’t she use her own name? – who has unplaced runners in the last four years and all have won subsequently.
So what of the 2025 race?
These are my qualifiers:
2nd: Copacabana Sands (Michael O’Callaghan): significantly upped in class in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in late March where she was very unlucky. A certain future winner and looked quite classy. (On reflection, she came into this race rated 76 having run 5 times at two for a Diego Diaz and improved substantially for O’Callaghan. Handicap mark now ruined (ish) and I won’t be taking a short price.)
5th: Gotomylovely (Fozzy Stack): owned by the best connections, she ran abysmally subsequently at Leopardstown after problems with a slipped bit. This may be to our advantage in time as she will have a modest rating when assessed for handicaps and a target might be the Kerry tracks in time where the Stacks love a winner.
6th: Echinea (Kevin Coleman): virtually a one-man-band, Coleman has given his syndicate investors/owners some really tasty returns in recent years where demand for placed maiden performers make great returns for export. Every effort will be made to upgrade this filly so I suspect getting her well-handicapped will be the last bead on the rosary. I have a contact in the stable so I should get some extra detail in time.
Other qualifiers that go on my dark horse tracker are Thakera (Denis Hogan), Vega’s Muse (Jessica Harrington), Real Petite (Tom Mullins) and Curroy Lady (Mark McNiff). These four selections should be a challenging and rewarding follow.
And Gotomylovely gets the thread off to a great start. Only noticed it afterwards. Well done, RA
Well done RA .... Bit dissapointed with the price though. ......
Gotomylovely (IRE) 25/1
J M Sheridan
J A Stack
3
92
–
74
92
–
Led but pestered, headed and pressed leader after 3f, led again 3f out, alone towards far side over 2f out, clear inside final furlong, readily (op 18/1 tchd 16/1)
Gotomylovely (IRE) 25/1
J M Sheridan
J A Stack
3
92
–
74
92
–
Led but pestered, headed and pressed leader after 3f, led again 3f out, alone towards far side over 2f out, clear inside final furlong, readily (op 18/1 tchd 16/1)
Terrific thread and well done on your flying start.
Varshini 3.57 Gowran. I thought her debut run was a little bit disappointing as she was tame at the finish,heavy at Gowran today would have me wondering will she stay, of course the 'she could improve a great deal' comment is very applicable, i would tend to think no today but hope i'm very wrong.Will watch and the best of luck going forward.
Varshini 3.57 Gowran. I thought her debut run was a little bit disappointing as she was tame at the finish,heavy at Gowran today would have me wondering will she stay, of course the 'she could improve a great deal' comment is very applicable, i would tend to think no today but hope i'm very wrong.Will watch and the best of luck going forward.
What do i know,well backed she did that very nicely, good man RA.
Echo the sentiments RE the quality of the thread,
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Echo the sentiments RE the quality of the thread,
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Echo the sentiments RE the quality of the thread,
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Only came across it this morning and unfortunitly for me had a look at gotomylovely the other day and left it so.
Might have chanced it if seen this first.
Can Vegas Muse keep the run going ?
Apologies for the multiple posts ,
And jinxing the run
And jinxing the run
Picking up on my latest theme of following what I regard as strong early season maidens we welcome to the stage the 3-y-o one-mile fillies’ maiden run at Naas in March.
The first of two reasons to pay attention to this maiden is that last four winners from 2021 to 2024 have been won on their second (1), third (2) and fourth (1) subsequent outings to produce a 22.5 gain (at S.P.) from 12 bets. It is tempting to say ignore their first subsequent outing as they will be inevitably short in the market and this approach would have produced a return on investment of only 331% which marginally beats what may be available in your local Credit Union. This year’s qualifier is the Ger Lyons Faiyum (by Frankel) who could feature in some good races throughout the season.
Somewhat less obvious is how this race can produce handicap winners later in the season with the proviso that they are not running off an official mark in this maiden and do not start unfancied in the market when competing in these handicaps. Studying the handsome returns over the last four years I would have suggest that anything starting over 12/1 would be discounted unless perhaps backed in from more attractive prices.
The horses I would recommend for the tracker are Sharayka (4th- Weld), Torcalot (6th – Harrington), Sharpen (7th – D O’Brien: though doesn’t tend to play in handicaps) and in the Hail Mary category both Northern Attitude (Diego Dias) and Lily Parr (S Lavery).
The first of two reasons to pay attention to this maiden is that last four winners from 2021 to 2024 have been won on their second (1), third (2) and fourth (1) subsequent outings to produce a 22.5 gain (at S.P.) from 12 bets. It is tempting to say ignore their first subsequent outing as they will be inevitably short in the market and this approach would have produced a return on investment of only 331% which marginally beats what may be available in your local Credit Union. This year’s qualifier is the Ger Lyons Faiyum (by Frankel) who could feature in some good races throughout the season.
Somewhat less obvious is how this race can produce handicap winners later in the season with the proviso that they are not running off an official mark in this maiden and do not start unfancied in the market when competing in these handicaps. Studying the handsome returns over the last four years I would have suggest that anything starting over 12/1 would be discounted unless perhaps backed in from more attractive prices.
The horses I would recommend for the tracker are Sharayka (4th- Weld), Torcalot (6th – Harrington), Sharpen (7th – D O’Brien: though doesn’t tend to play in handicaps) and in the Hail Mary category both Northern Attitude (Diego Dias) and Lily Parr (S Lavery).
Part the fifth
The first black type opportunity for two-year-olds in Ireland is the Listed First Flyer Stakes run at the Curragh over the May Bank Holiday weekend. There were 12 entries and 6 have taken up the opportunity.
As ever, I am interested in the unraced entries in the expectation (or hope!) that those entered have been giving the right signals at home. The relevant (or relative) unknowns are:
Raphello (J P O’Brien) – scratched
A colt by Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare (Floriade), Raphello was bought at Goffs Orby last October for €52,000. Owned by the American, Barry Fowler, who part-owned the excellent Porta Fortuna who collected four Group 1’s in a stellar career for Donnacha O’Brien. Raphello is a full-brother the 2019 mare, Flotus, whose best performances came over 6f in Group 3 and Listed victories for the Crisfords and sold for a cool 1m guineas at the Tatts December mares sale in 2021.
Call Margot (Diego Dias) – 6th of 6; beaten 5.5L
A £40,000 yearling purchase at Doncaster last August she was highly tried on this her racing bow at Headquarters and I was quite impressed with her run and performance as her S.P. of 100/1 suggested that this was a fact-finding mission. I can’t imagine they will be too disappointed with this run as she ran straight through the line.
Spring Is Here (Joseph O’Brien) - 4th of 6; beaten 2.5L
A second unraced Starspangledbanner from Owning Hilly this filly has a really nice pedigree and fetched €225,000 at Goffs Orby last autumn similar to Raphello (above).
Unfancied at 25/1 she ran a nice race and could develop into a decent sprinter similar to her full-brother Castle Star (2019 c) who won this same Listed Race in 2021 for Fozzy Stack and subsequently the G3 Marble Hill Stakes that same year but didn’t train on subsequently despite finishing 2nd in the Middle Park at the conclusion of his 2yo season.
Taiyi (J Harrington) - scratched
Unsold at Tatts Ireland last September Taiyi – yet another by Starspangledbanner - is the second foal out of a German mare and grandam who were listed placed over 10F+. Taiyi is a half half-sister to a Dundalk maiden second at Dundalk last November who couldn’t win a Sligo this same weekend. A bit of an enigmatic puzzle.
Looking back at how the last four years’ first and second finishers subsequently performed it is a mixed bag even if there was one spectacular result:
2021: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2 whilst the second won on the third start at 11/4.
2022: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2, second couldn’t win in 6 subsequent starts.
2023: winner proved disappointing but the second won at Royal Ascot on this second start at 150/1.
2024: winner won second start at 11/10; second won next start at 7/1.
As for the previously unraced performers trying their luck at this elevated level – concentrating on the first 5 home each year – 2021: zero qualifiers, 2022: fifth won on 4th start at 5/2; 2023: first three were unraced and included the Ascot winner mentioned above plus a n.t.o. winner in third at 4/6; 2024: the fourth placed horse was unraced but disappointed.
Plenty of profit but belief in the system needed!
The first black type opportunity for two-year-olds in Ireland is the Listed First Flyer Stakes run at the Curragh over the May Bank Holiday weekend. There were 12 entries and 6 have taken up the opportunity.
As ever, I am interested in the unraced entries in the expectation (or hope!) that those entered have been giving the right signals at home. The relevant (or relative) unknowns are:
Raphello (J P O’Brien) – scratched
A colt by Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare (Floriade), Raphello was bought at Goffs Orby last October for €52,000. Owned by the American, Barry Fowler, who part-owned the excellent Porta Fortuna who collected four Group 1’s in a stellar career for Donnacha O’Brien. Raphello is a full-brother the 2019 mare, Flotus, whose best performances came over 6f in Group 3 and Listed victories for the Crisfords and sold for a cool 1m guineas at the Tatts December mares sale in 2021.
Call Margot (Diego Dias) – 6th of 6; beaten 5.5L
A £40,000 yearling purchase at Doncaster last August she was highly tried on this her racing bow at Headquarters and I was quite impressed with her run and performance as her S.P. of 100/1 suggested that this was a fact-finding mission. I can’t imagine they will be too disappointed with this run as she ran straight through the line.
Spring Is Here (Joseph O’Brien) - 4th of 6; beaten 2.5L
A second unraced Starspangledbanner from Owning Hilly this filly has a really nice pedigree and fetched €225,000 at Goffs Orby last autumn similar to Raphello (above).
Unfancied at 25/1 she ran a nice race and could develop into a decent sprinter similar to her full-brother Castle Star (2019 c) who won this same Listed Race in 2021 for Fozzy Stack and subsequently the G3 Marble Hill Stakes that same year but didn’t train on subsequently despite finishing 2nd in the Middle Park at the conclusion of his 2yo season.
Taiyi (J Harrington) - scratched
Unsold at Tatts Ireland last September Taiyi – yet another by Starspangledbanner - is the second foal out of a German mare and grandam who were listed placed over 10F+. Taiyi is a half half-sister to a Dundalk maiden second at Dundalk last November who couldn’t win a Sligo this same weekend. A bit of an enigmatic puzzle.
Looking back at how the last four years’ first and second finishers subsequently performed it is a mixed bag even if there was one spectacular result:
2021: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2 whilst the second won on the third start at 11/4.
2022: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2, second couldn’t win in 6 subsequent starts.
2023: winner proved disappointing but the second won at Royal Ascot on this second start at 150/1.
2024: winner won second start at 11/10; second won next start at 7/1.
As for the previously unraced performers trying their luck at this elevated level – concentrating on the first 5 home each year – 2021: zero qualifiers, 2022: fifth won on 4th start at 5/2; 2023: first three were unraced and included the Ascot winner mentioned above plus a n.t.o. winner in third at 4/6; 2024: the fourth placed horse was unraced but disappointed.
Plenty of profit but belief in the system needed!
I guess so, kavvie but short prices lead to damnation as we know. I restarted this blog based on my previous, similar threads here all those years ago that always relied on far better prices to turn a profit and were less obvious on the day. This belief in the methodology is what turns a profit on my sort of research, past trends and, sometimes, blind faith. Not everyone's cupain tae but I don't I ever started a thread that didn't turn a profit at SP when the winners can come from unexpected quarters. If the form is there for all to see then the market will not be generous.
I'll do a rolling interim review of results at the end of May.
I'll do a rolling interim review of results at the end of May.
i wasnt on here in years..it died a death due to ****s. it used be very interesting. and i remember reading your stuff which was very good. anyway i punted it at evens. beaten 4l ltp wouldnt fill one with confidence but josephs improve from run to run. if it dont win tonight we can assume it hasnt trained on i suppose.
Well done, RA. Another one popped in yesterday at the Curragh, Sharpen, and at a price, 14/1 and a BSP of 26.44.
Update: 2 July 2025 (Part I)
I’ll post my summary of what’s worth watching and the P&L when all updated.
Jessica Harrington
Had a respectable 2024 with some of her two-year-olds and much will be hoped for with Hotazhell and Green Impact.
An unraced entry catches the eye in the shape of Collecting Coin (Lope de Vega) who may have been very well-bought at just 52,000gns last May. She’s the first foal out of an unraced Acclamation mare whose five siblings to see the racecourse have all won and their RPR’s average 99 which is a very good return indeed. This looks an out-and-out sprinting family so I would be looking at these distances rather than the Classic ranges. (Note to Mrs. H: please run three times over 7f+ and drop back to sprinting trips when ready to win.)
Update: paid no attention to me but the horse has run well in two maidens and seems a middle-distance campaigner. Interestingly, he was gelded just four days after finishing a neck second in a 10F Curragh maiden that he should have won. Harrington’s form is dreadful at the moment but this is a likely winner when whatever ails the yard is history.
John Murphy
A bit “in and out” John Murphy did very well with White Birch last season and I hope that they have a successful 2025 together. I’m concerned Murphy’s strike-rate with 3yo flat performers is just 6% over the last 5 years but it may be worth noting Crosshaven (Cable Bay), although cheaply bought at 13,000gns at Tatts Book 3 in 2023, has changed hands (to remain in the yard) to one of Murphy’s long-standing loyal patrons Mrs. Regalado-Gonzalez. This is probably a longer-term prospect but he is well worth following for 2025 and into 2026 as Murphy’s forte is older flat horses.
Update: Ran two poor races in maidens and I couldn’t trust the trainer to deliver unless I see something of note in future runs. The fact the horse is now in Muphy’s name doesn’t inspire me.
H De Bromhead
A once-raced Bated Breath filly, Minaun View, looks of interest. Owner, Stephen McCarthy, who has had horses with Henry over the last 10 years or so must be looking forward to the coming season. The ownership/trainer combo had its best result in 2020 when Minuan won the G3 Marble Hill Stakes providing both with their first Group winner on the flat.
Sourced by Cormac Farrell and sent to Knockeen Stables after (fortuitously?) failing to sell at the 2024 Craven Breeze-Up, her pedigree is light on good sibling performers but her dam (by Beat Hollow) is a mile G3 winner from a nice family; certainly, a page that offers encouragement.
On her only highly-tried run to date she finished a 5L 6th in a 7F Dundalk Listed contest that obviously encouraged the Guineas entry. This is her Racing Post assessment:
“Minaun View was thrown in at the deep end after winning a 7f barrier trial at Leopardstown in impressive fashion and ran with credit on her racecourse and AW debut. She has a bright future ahead of her on this evidence and she should stay further in time.”
Very much one to look forward to.
Update: Curious case: apparently dropped by the owner after finishing last of 13 in a Leopardstown Group 3. Two further runs since, latest with a tongue strap wasn’t a bad effort. Nothing has run since that race was run so perhaps its worth watching. My concern would be his only start at two will flatter him but the handicapper could be harsh.
Jessica Harrington
An unraced filly I’m interested in based purely on the owner’s pedigree albeit the filly is well bred and the dam cost €320,000 at Arqana breeding sale in 2019. To date she has produced an 87-rated middle distance winner (of two foals to race). Mittens (by the classy Night of Thunder) is Harrington’s only unraced entry in this fillies classic in which she still has ten entries.
She was bred by Hamwood Stud who have decided to retain her for their broodmare band (presumably) and that Stud has close connections with the Dunne Stores retail family. Frank Dunne always had an interest in matters bloodstock (Stanerra, for one) so it may be that direct connection. I’m of the view that she’s not an idle entry as Dunnes would not be synonymous in wasting their millions. A “suck-it-and-see” project.
Update: obviously well thought of and second in both starts. Stable malaise a concern; not seen since 25th May. Form of first start at Naas very strong but future form from a Curragh outing surprisingly poor. She’ll win a small race according to the Post which surely is damnation by faint praise. I’d like to see her in a 12f premier handicap off a mark of 85.
Emmet Mullins
An unraced filly,Jerpoint Abbey (by Justify) – a well-known ancient religious ruin near Gowran Park – receives my maximum attention and is from an intriguing source, to say the least. Mullins is ultra-shrewd and rarely mistakes a goose for a swan.
Unfortunately for Mullins she seems to have missed a breeze-up engagement last May having being bought at Fasig-Tipton seven months earlier for $275,000. He may have unloaded her to her current syndicate but the Guineas entry is eye-catching. Her pedigree is American and she’s not too distant to the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Distaff 9f winner.
Update: remains unraced but still holds an Irish Oaks entry which is eye-catching.
Joseph O’Brien
A home-bred from David Nagle’s Barronstown Stud should never ignored even if the owner is mostly retired. Named after a famous wildlife reserve in South Africa which has always been Nagle’s happy hunting ground (!) so I think this premium name for this daughter of Justify, Tswalu, is significant. Big names and reputations don’t always equate to greatness but I’m happy to follow this filly with significant cash. When I tell you she is a grand-daughter of 2001 Irish 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby winner Imagine (by Sadler’s Wells out of Doff the Derby) you can tell I’m drooling.
She’s seen action once at two finishing 6th in a Cork maiden but obviously far more was expected as she started at 7/4. Reviewing the race, the run can be ignored in my view as she had a nightmare outing yet stayed on nicely at the business end with the much-loved in-running comment of “never nearer”.
I can’t wait to see her re-appearance and I’ll make the trip to see her.
Update: backed her on her debut only to run into a Paddy Twomey filly who then ran third in the Ribblesdale. Of course I’m far too wise to have backed her each-way at 5/1. She’s not exactly what I hoped for but I have avoided three subsequent placed efforts at short odds albeit she is very consistent. She may persist with maidens but likely to be prohibitively short against her own sex. Similar to Mittens, I’d again like to see her in a decent handicap rated mid-eighties but I suspect she will be rated around 90.
P Twomey
Somewhat akin to Jessica Harrington, Paddy Twomey seems to have an eye for fillies. Unraced, City Of Memphis (Sioux Nation), definitely caught his eye as he went to €370,000 to secure her at a Tatts Ireland Breeze-Up (Goresbridge of old) sale last May giving Katie Walsh a cool €300,000 profit on her pinhook. Chapeau, Katie!
She has five winning siblings of six to race yet the odd one out was second in three of his six starts so almost a nap hand. An average RPR for the sextet of 86 gives this filly every chance and money down from this source doesn’t often fail.
Update: at last a winner for the thread but at 8/13 first-time-out. Subsequently ran 4th in Irish 1,000 so she will be fun to follow and should be profitable.
J A (Fozzy) Stack
Fozzy has left two in this one-mile Classic and both are worth noting.
Bay Colony (New Bay) cost an eye-watering €480,000 at Goffs Orby in 2023 presumably on the basis her dam is a half-sister to a disqualified Guineas winner and there’s plenty of strong black type on her page. Stack also trained her half-sister by Starspangledbanney who, interestingly, won her one and only race in her first start in a 3yo maiden at Cork in April 2023. (Could lightning strike twice?) Her best subsequent runs were two second placings in Curragh and Leopardstown Group 3’s.
Her Floridian owner, Craig Bernick, whose main bloodstock interests are in Ocala and the family’s fortune derives for what used to be my favourite shampoo Alberto VO5 until I started losing my rug.
Unusually for a filly keeping her Guineas entry, she has run three times and has a mark of 89 which, initially, seemed stiff to me compared to an RPR of 83. This is on account of seemingly over-performing when highly-tried in a Curragh G3, beaten almost 6L into 5th. On reflection and review of the race, she ran far better than her final placing and offered much encouragement for a 3yo career and they may have put her away for 2025 after that August 2024 run. There’s enough future form in this race to encourage supporting this filly on her re-appearances and the Stack horses are renowned for being ready early. She could provide excellent sport in the spring and early summer.
Update: Won for us on her second start so job done! I think she is now too highly rated to follow.
The second Thomastown Castle representative is Varshini (Night Of Thunder) who ran just once last July when 5th of 11 in a Curragh maiden at 25/1. RP comment: a filly with a Moyglare entry, was another to run a nice race for a long way. She didn't quite enjoy luck in running when she was travelling well. She should improve a good deal.
A €90,000 purchase from Flash Conroy’s Glenvale Stud nursery she is now owned by Fitri Hay and Coolmore’s Paul Shanahan. Of her 5 siblings to race, four are winners and the average RPR is 92 which suggests “quality”.
A review of her debut run over 7f suggests she was boxed in for along periods of the race, came to challenge a furlong down and ran out of steam late. Trips of 7f+ will suit.
Update: Won on first start at 15/8. Subsequently rated 82 but ran accountably badly in handicap on Guineas day. The mark looks attractive – she was beaten favourite – but there is something about the Stack’s horses as their form seem to tail off in summer. Still of interest though.
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Gowran Classic (3yo)
The first early closer of 2025 apart from the first four Irish Classics.
Red Scarlet (Waldgeist) R P Cody
Interesting to see Cody give this Ballygallon home-bred an entry in this 9.5f stake.
Based on four runs at two she has definite ability and, interestingly, in three of her four runs she met with interference and can be marked up appreciably from a generous-looking mark of just 76 which was actually 5lbs lower prior to revision. There is plenty to play with here.
Her pedigree is pretty nice as a first foal of dam who is a half-sister to a 10F Group 3 winner and three other winners. Cody is a good trainer and gets the best out of his charges and if you looking for another filly he trains to follow I would recommend Lady Lunette who did me a turn at Leopardstown last July when the money was down. Connections believe she can win again and plumped for a 5yo racing season over the covering shed. Some black type would be the icing on the cake.
If I have one wish here it’s that a good handicap mark should be taken advantage of as in 2023 Cody plumped for a Gowran maiden run with Lady Lunette which she duly won but a mark of 72 was never availed of as she got 12lbs for that fillies maiden victory. I hope history is not repeated with Red Scarlet.
Update: persisting in maidens as I warned but disappointing in two tries, so far. If this a case of a filly not training on so be it but she has a lovely mark of just 69 today having been dropped 6lbs since her last effort in early May. Maybe the break will do her good. Cody horses attract support a lot but, as ever, it’s trying to read the tea leaves.
Lady Lunette Update: Fancied to repeat her win in 2024 in the Nasrullah at Leopardstown next week after some promising runs. My concern off her mark of 88 is that her previous best was achieved off 82. She did run well in the Ulster Oaks on her latest start of 86 but that may just keep her out of the number one slot until she drops a few pounds.
Cooley’s Mist (Churchill) Natalia Lupini
The dam of this filly is the 2015 Zoffany mare, Lady Scathach, who won five handicaps for Tom McCourt in 2019 and 2020, improving from a basement level rating of 45 to a high of 71. McCourt will have been disappointed not to train her first foal, the afore-mentioned Cooley’s Mist and it seems this unraced filly has impressed Lupini as she holds an entry for this Gowran “Classic”.
Lupini is no slouch at this training lark and a relative hobby from 2015 to 2020 has taken off spectacularly since with annual winners of 5, 14, 16 and 12 from 2021 to 2024. She has already trained 3 winners in 2025 and is a trainer to keep firmly on side and one cannot but be impressed with a five-year strike-rate of 14% and one of the very few trainers in profit over this period. From Milan, with little history in bloodstock her partner, Craig Bryson, spent his formative years in Ballydoyle.
Update: Three starts in maidens will now qualify for a mark. (She ran too close in 6th on her Leopardstown bow!) However, very interested in future entries.
Another unraced filly entered by Lupini is the Le Havre filly, Lady McC, and represents a similar switch of trainers as in previous years one would expect Tom Gibney to train for Haigney Bloodstock. This filly is a full-sister to two winners rated 98 and 75 and another winning sibling rated 82 (of five to race). Her dam originally cost 550,000 guineas due to her proximity to the French superstar Goldikova so investing just €36,000 for this filly seems sound business to me.
Update: exposed a little after second in a Dundalk maiden on her debut. We now know she has ability but since her very concerning second start at Leopardstown has been kept at home since probably to sort out issues. Monitor.
Bright Night (Study Of Man) W McCreery
Flaxman Stables (Maria Niarchos) and McCreery partnered in the past with Fiesolana the 2014 Matron Stakes (G1) winner and they have been loyally sending McCreery horses since. This filly is a half-sister to three winners (average RPR’s of 102) so she could be a prospect especially as her dam is related to five stakes winners.
Update: remains unraced.
I’ll post my summary of what’s worth watching and the P&L when all updated.
Jessica Harrington
Had a respectable 2024 with some of her two-year-olds and much will be hoped for with Hotazhell and Green Impact.
An unraced entry catches the eye in the shape of Collecting Coin (Lope de Vega) who may have been very well-bought at just 52,000gns last May. She’s the first foal out of an unraced Acclamation mare whose five siblings to see the racecourse have all won and their RPR’s average 99 which is a very good return indeed. This looks an out-and-out sprinting family so I would be looking at these distances rather than the Classic ranges. (Note to Mrs. H: please run three times over 7f+ and drop back to sprinting trips when ready to win.)
Update: paid no attention to me but the horse has run well in two maidens and seems a middle-distance campaigner. Interestingly, he was gelded just four days after finishing a neck second in a 10F Curragh maiden that he should have won. Harrington’s form is dreadful at the moment but this is a likely winner when whatever ails the yard is history.
John Murphy
A bit “in and out” John Murphy did very well with White Birch last season and I hope that they have a successful 2025 together. I’m concerned Murphy’s strike-rate with 3yo flat performers is just 6% over the last 5 years but it may be worth noting Crosshaven (Cable Bay), although cheaply bought at 13,000gns at Tatts Book 3 in 2023, has changed hands (to remain in the yard) to one of Murphy’s long-standing loyal patrons Mrs. Regalado-Gonzalez. This is probably a longer-term prospect but he is well worth following for 2025 and into 2026 as Murphy’s forte is older flat horses.
Update: Ran two poor races in maidens and I couldn’t trust the trainer to deliver unless I see something of note in future runs. The fact the horse is now in Muphy’s name doesn’t inspire me.
H De Bromhead
A once-raced Bated Breath filly, Minaun View, looks of interest. Owner, Stephen McCarthy, who has had horses with Henry over the last 10 years or so must be looking forward to the coming season. The ownership/trainer combo had its best result in 2020 when Minuan won the G3 Marble Hill Stakes providing both with their first Group winner on the flat.
Sourced by Cormac Farrell and sent to Knockeen Stables after (fortuitously?) failing to sell at the 2024 Craven Breeze-Up, her pedigree is light on good sibling performers but her dam (by Beat Hollow) is a mile G3 winner from a nice family; certainly, a page that offers encouragement.
On her only highly-tried run to date she finished a 5L 6th in a 7F Dundalk Listed contest that obviously encouraged the Guineas entry. This is her Racing Post assessment:
“Minaun View was thrown in at the deep end after winning a 7f barrier trial at Leopardstown in impressive fashion and ran with credit on her racecourse and AW debut. She has a bright future ahead of her on this evidence and she should stay further in time.”
Very much one to look forward to.
Update: Curious case: apparently dropped by the owner after finishing last of 13 in a Leopardstown Group 3. Two further runs since, latest with a tongue strap wasn’t a bad effort. Nothing has run since that race was run so perhaps its worth watching. My concern would be his only start at two will flatter him but the handicapper could be harsh.
Jessica Harrington
An unraced filly I’m interested in based purely on the owner’s pedigree albeit the filly is well bred and the dam cost €320,000 at Arqana breeding sale in 2019. To date she has produced an 87-rated middle distance winner (of two foals to race). Mittens (by the classy Night of Thunder) is Harrington’s only unraced entry in this fillies classic in which she still has ten entries.
She was bred by Hamwood Stud who have decided to retain her for their broodmare band (presumably) and that Stud has close connections with the Dunne Stores retail family. Frank Dunne always had an interest in matters bloodstock (Stanerra, for one) so it may be that direct connection. I’m of the view that she’s not an idle entry as Dunnes would not be synonymous in wasting their millions. A “suck-it-and-see” project.
Update: obviously well thought of and second in both starts. Stable malaise a concern; not seen since 25th May. Form of first start at Naas very strong but future form from a Curragh outing surprisingly poor. She’ll win a small race according to the Post which surely is damnation by faint praise. I’d like to see her in a 12f premier handicap off a mark of 85.
Emmet Mullins
An unraced filly,Jerpoint Abbey (by Justify) – a well-known ancient religious ruin near Gowran Park – receives my maximum attention and is from an intriguing source, to say the least. Mullins is ultra-shrewd and rarely mistakes a goose for a swan.
Unfortunately for Mullins she seems to have missed a breeze-up engagement last May having being bought at Fasig-Tipton seven months earlier for $275,000. He may have unloaded her to her current syndicate but the Guineas entry is eye-catching. Her pedigree is American and she’s not too distant to the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Distaff 9f winner.
Update: remains unraced but still holds an Irish Oaks entry which is eye-catching.
Joseph O’Brien
A home-bred from David Nagle’s Barronstown Stud should never ignored even if the owner is mostly retired. Named after a famous wildlife reserve in South Africa which has always been Nagle’s happy hunting ground (!) so I think this premium name for this daughter of Justify, Tswalu, is significant. Big names and reputations don’t always equate to greatness but I’m happy to follow this filly with significant cash. When I tell you she is a grand-daughter of 2001 Irish 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby winner Imagine (by Sadler’s Wells out of Doff the Derby) you can tell I’m drooling.
She’s seen action once at two finishing 6th in a Cork maiden but obviously far more was expected as she started at 7/4. Reviewing the race, the run can be ignored in my view as she had a nightmare outing yet stayed on nicely at the business end with the much-loved in-running comment of “never nearer”.
I can’t wait to see her re-appearance and I’ll make the trip to see her.
Update: backed her on her debut only to run into a Paddy Twomey filly who then ran third in the Ribblesdale. Of course I’m far too wise to have backed her each-way at 5/1. She’s not exactly what I hoped for but I have avoided three subsequent placed efforts at short odds albeit she is very consistent. She may persist with maidens but likely to be prohibitively short against her own sex. Similar to Mittens, I’d again like to see her in a decent handicap rated mid-eighties but I suspect she will be rated around 90.
P Twomey
Somewhat akin to Jessica Harrington, Paddy Twomey seems to have an eye for fillies. Unraced, City Of Memphis (Sioux Nation), definitely caught his eye as he went to €370,000 to secure her at a Tatts Ireland Breeze-Up (Goresbridge of old) sale last May giving Katie Walsh a cool €300,000 profit on her pinhook. Chapeau, Katie!
She has five winning siblings of six to race yet the odd one out was second in three of his six starts so almost a nap hand. An average RPR for the sextet of 86 gives this filly every chance and money down from this source doesn’t often fail.
Update: at last a winner for the thread but at 8/13 first-time-out. Subsequently ran 4th in Irish 1,000 so she will be fun to follow and should be profitable.
J A (Fozzy) Stack
Fozzy has left two in this one-mile Classic and both are worth noting.
Bay Colony (New Bay) cost an eye-watering €480,000 at Goffs Orby in 2023 presumably on the basis her dam is a half-sister to a disqualified Guineas winner and there’s plenty of strong black type on her page. Stack also trained her half-sister by Starspangledbanney who, interestingly, won her one and only race in her first start in a 3yo maiden at Cork in April 2023. (Could lightning strike twice?) Her best subsequent runs were two second placings in Curragh and Leopardstown Group 3’s.
Her Floridian owner, Craig Bernick, whose main bloodstock interests are in Ocala and the family’s fortune derives for what used to be my favourite shampoo Alberto VO5 until I started losing my rug.
Unusually for a filly keeping her Guineas entry, she has run three times and has a mark of 89 which, initially, seemed stiff to me compared to an RPR of 83. This is on account of seemingly over-performing when highly-tried in a Curragh G3, beaten almost 6L into 5th. On reflection and review of the race, she ran far better than her final placing and offered much encouragement for a 3yo career and they may have put her away for 2025 after that August 2024 run. There’s enough future form in this race to encourage supporting this filly on her re-appearances and the Stack horses are renowned for being ready early. She could provide excellent sport in the spring and early summer.
Update: Won for us on her second start so job done! I think she is now too highly rated to follow.
The second Thomastown Castle representative is Varshini (Night Of Thunder) who ran just once last July when 5th of 11 in a Curragh maiden at 25/1. RP comment: a filly with a Moyglare entry, was another to run a nice race for a long way. She didn't quite enjoy luck in running when she was travelling well. She should improve a good deal.
A €90,000 purchase from Flash Conroy’s Glenvale Stud nursery she is now owned by Fitri Hay and Coolmore’s Paul Shanahan. Of her 5 siblings to race, four are winners and the average RPR is 92 which suggests “quality”.
A review of her debut run over 7f suggests she was boxed in for along periods of the race, came to challenge a furlong down and ran out of steam late. Trips of 7f+ will suit.
Update: Won on first start at 15/8. Subsequently rated 82 but ran accountably badly in handicap on Guineas day. The mark looks attractive – she was beaten favourite – but there is something about the Stack’s horses as their form seem to tail off in summer. Still of interest though.
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Gowran Classic (3yo)
The first early closer of 2025 apart from the first four Irish Classics.
Red Scarlet (Waldgeist) R P Cody
Interesting to see Cody give this Ballygallon home-bred an entry in this 9.5f stake.
Based on four runs at two she has definite ability and, interestingly, in three of her four runs she met with interference and can be marked up appreciably from a generous-looking mark of just 76 which was actually 5lbs lower prior to revision. There is plenty to play with here.
Her pedigree is pretty nice as a first foal of dam who is a half-sister to a 10F Group 3 winner and three other winners. Cody is a good trainer and gets the best out of his charges and if you looking for another filly he trains to follow I would recommend Lady Lunette who did me a turn at Leopardstown last July when the money was down. Connections believe she can win again and plumped for a 5yo racing season over the covering shed. Some black type would be the icing on the cake.
If I have one wish here it’s that a good handicap mark should be taken advantage of as in 2023 Cody plumped for a Gowran maiden run with Lady Lunette which she duly won but a mark of 72 was never availed of as she got 12lbs for that fillies maiden victory. I hope history is not repeated with Red Scarlet.
Update: persisting in maidens as I warned but disappointing in two tries, so far. If this a case of a filly not training on so be it but she has a lovely mark of just 69 today having been dropped 6lbs since her last effort in early May. Maybe the break will do her good. Cody horses attract support a lot but, as ever, it’s trying to read the tea leaves.
Lady Lunette Update: Fancied to repeat her win in 2024 in the Nasrullah at Leopardstown next week after some promising runs. My concern off her mark of 88 is that her previous best was achieved off 82. She did run well in the Ulster Oaks on her latest start of 86 but that may just keep her out of the number one slot until she drops a few pounds.
Cooley’s Mist (Churchill) Natalia Lupini
The dam of this filly is the 2015 Zoffany mare, Lady Scathach, who won five handicaps for Tom McCourt in 2019 and 2020, improving from a basement level rating of 45 to a high of 71. McCourt will have been disappointed not to train her first foal, the afore-mentioned Cooley’s Mist and it seems this unraced filly has impressed Lupini as she holds an entry for this Gowran “Classic”.
Lupini is no slouch at this training lark and a relative hobby from 2015 to 2020 has taken off spectacularly since with annual winners of 5, 14, 16 and 12 from 2021 to 2024. She has already trained 3 winners in 2025 and is a trainer to keep firmly on side and one cannot but be impressed with a five-year strike-rate of 14% and one of the very few trainers in profit over this period. From Milan, with little history in bloodstock her partner, Craig Bryson, spent his formative years in Ballydoyle.
Update: Three starts in maidens will now qualify for a mark. (She ran too close in 6th on her Leopardstown bow!) However, very interested in future entries.
Another unraced filly entered by Lupini is the Le Havre filly, Lady McC, and represents a similar switch of trainers as in previous years one would expect Tom Gibney to train for Haigney Bloodstock. This filly is a full-sister to two winners rated 98 and 75 and another winning sibling rated 82 (of five to race). Her dam originally cost 550,000 guineas due to her proximity to the French superstar Goldikova so investing just €36,000 for this filly seems sound business to me.
Update: exposed a little after second in a Dundalk maiden on her debut. We now know she has ability but since her very concerning second start at Leopardstown has been kept at home since probably to sort out issues. Monitor.
Bright Night (Study Of Man) W McCreery
Flaxman Stables (Maria Niarchos) and McCreery partnered in the past with Fiesolana the 2014 Matron Stakes (G1) winner and they have been loyally sending McCreery horses since. This filly is a half-sister to three winners (average RPR’s of 102) so she could be a prospect especially as her dam is related to five stakes winners.
Update: remains unraced.
Update: 2 July 2025 (Part II)
2nd: Copacabana Sands (Michael O’Callaghan): significantly upped in class in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in late March where she was very unlucky. A certain future winner and looked quite classy. (On reflection, she came into this race rated 76 having run 5 times at two for a Diego Diaz and improved substantially for O’Callaghan. Handicap mark now ruined (ish) and I won’t be taking a short price.)
Update: Won on second and third starts at 18/5 and 11/2.
5th: Gotomylovely (Fozzy Stack): owned by the best connections, she ran abysmally subsequently at Leopardstown after problems with a slipped bit. This may be to our advantage in time as she will have a modest rating when assessed for handicaps and a target might be the Kerry tracks in time where the Stacks love a winner.
Update: after a mishap on her next start she subsequently won a Gowran maiden at 25/1 in April.
6th: Echinacea (Kevin Coleman): virtually a one-man-band, Coleman has given his syndicate investors/owners some really tasty returns in recent years where demand for placed maiden performers make great returns for export. Every effort will be made to upgrade this filly so I suspect getting her well-handicapped will be the last bead on the rosary. I have a contact in the stable so I should get some extra detail in time.
Update: two more maidens yielded a very workable mark of 67 and now just 63. I was very surprised he went off at 20/1 on handicap debut and finished where a 20/1 should, in rear. I’m fairly confident money will appear for him at some point. Coleman, like Cody, have betting supporters regularly smashing their runners but I’ll be surprised if his is not a plot.
Other qualifiers that go on my dark horse tracker are Thakheera (Denis Hogan),
Update: couldn’t win a Ballinrobe claimer and surprising that Hogan never ran her in a handicap. His owner sent him to Adrian Nicholls thereafter where he’s had a single sighter. Keep an eye on her.
Vega’s Muse (Jessica Harrington),
Update: On previous trends this filly should have won a handicap by now – three runs at an average price of 6/1. Seems poised after her last (best run) and a smashing mark of 64. Has to win off that when the stable is in better spirits.
Real Petite (Tom Mullins)
Put away after a stroll in first try in a handicap off 62 under Seamie Heff at 40/1, no doubt to get the update for future battles. Strong interest in her.
and Curroy Lady (Mark McNiff). These four selections should be a challenging and rewarding follow.
Update: classic winner of the other kind: third start in maiden to get a mark of 49; third on handicap bow and wins next time out at 2/1. Proper training.
Picking up on my latest theme of following what I regard as strong early season maidens we welcome to the stage the 3-y-o one-mile fillies’ maiden run at Naas in March.
The first of two reasons to pay attention to this maiden is that last four winners from 2021 to 2024 have been won on their second (1), third (2) and fourth (1) subsequent outings to produce a 22.5 gain (at S.P.) from 12 bets. It is tempting to say ignore their first subsequent outing as they will be inevitably short in the market and this approach would have produced a return on investment of only 331% which marginally beats what may be available in your local Credit Union. This year’s qualifier is the Ger Lyons Faiyum (by Frankel) who could feature in some good races throughout the season.
Update: won her maiden and second in Group 3. I wouldn’t put you off following this filly wherever she turns up. She has an entry in the Matron and I fancy backing her at tasty prices win or lose.
Somewhat less obvious is how this race can produce handicap winners later in the season with the proviso that they are not running off an official mark in this maiden and do not start unfancied in the market when competing in these handicaps. Studying the handsome returns over the last four years I would have suggest that anything starting over 12/1 would be discounted unless perhaps backed in from more attractive prices.
The horses I would recommend for the tracker are Sharayka (4th- Weld),
Update: second on only start in a maiden. Galway winner.
Torcalot (6th – Harrington),
Update: unraced
Sharpen (7th – D O’Brien: though doesn’t tend to play in handicaps)
Update: won Curragh maiden next start at 14/1.
and in the Hail Mary category both Northern Attitude (Diego Dias)
Update: hit the crossbar at 22/1 (second) in first handicap. Running consistently since and surely wins a handicap soon.
and Lily Parr (S Lavery).
Update: unplaced in first handicap at 28/1. Nice mark of 70 (-2 since handicap bow.) Very much of interest,
Part the fifth
The first black type opportunity for two-year-olds in Ireland is the Listed First Flyer Stakes run at the Curragh over the May Bank Holiday weekend. There were 12 entries and 6 have taken up the opportunity.
As ever, I am interested in the unraced entries in the expectation (or hope!) that those entered have been giving the right signals at home. The relevant (or relative) unknowns are:
Raphello (J P O’Brien) – scratched
A colt by Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare (Floriade), Raphello was bought at Goffs Orby last October for €52,000. Owned by the American, Barry Fowler, who part-owned the excellent Porta Fortuna who collected four Group 1’s in a stellar career for Donnacha O’Brien. Raphello is a full-brother the 2019 mare, Flotus, whose best performances came over 6f in Group 3 and Listed victories for the Crisfords and sold for a cool 1m guineas at the Tatts December mares sale in 2021.
Update: likely nursery winner after one more run.
Call Margot (Diego Dias) – 6th of 6; beaten 5.5L
A £40,000 yearling purchase at Doncaster last August she was highly tried on this her racing bow at Headquarters and I was quite impressed with her run and performance as her S.P. of 100/1 suggested that this was a fact-finding mission. I can’t imagine they will be too disappointed with this run as she ran straight through the line.
Update: likely nursery winner after one more run
Spring Is Here (Joseph O’Brien) - 4th of 6; beaten 2.5L
A second unraced Starspangledbanner from Owning Hilly this filly has a really nice pedigree and fetched €225,000 at Goffs Orby last autumn similar to Raphello (above).
Unfancied at 25/1 she ran a nice race and could develop into a decent sprinter similar to her full-brother Castle Star (2019 c) who won this same Listed Race in 2021 for Fozzy Stack and subsequently the G3 Marble Hill Stakes that same year but didn’t train on subsequently despite finishing 2nd in the Middle Park at the conclusion of his 2yo season.
Update: running well but exposed. Would be all about the price now for me.
Taiyi (J Harrington) - scratched
Unsold at Tatts Ireland last September Taiyi – yet another by Starspangledbanner - is the second foal out of a German mare and grandam who were listed placed over 10F+. Taiyi is a half half-sister to a Dundalk maiden second at Dundalk last November who couldn’t win a Sligo this same weekend. A bit of an enigmatic puzzle.
Update: hard to judge on two runs with JH under a cloud.
Looking back at how the last four years’ first and second finishers subsequently performed it is a mixed bag even if there was one spectacular result:
2021: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2 whilst the second won on the third start at 11/4.
2022: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2, second couldn’t win in 6 subsequent starts.
2023: winner proved disappointing but the second won at Royal Ascot on this second start at 150/1.
2024: winner won second start at 11/10; second won next start at 7/1.
Update: 2025 winner, Lady Iman, won n.t.o. at 2/1, second was unplaced at Ascot but worth following on next runs.
As for the previously unraced performers trying their luck at this elevated level – concentrating on the first 5 home each year – 2021: zero qualifiers, 2022: fifth won on 4th start at 5/2; 2023: first three were unraced and included the Ascot winner mentioned above plus a n.t.o. winner in third at 4/6; 2024: the fourth placed horse was unraced but disappointed.
Update: True Love (2nd) won at Ascot (5/2); 4th Spring Is Here will win shortly.
Plenty of profit but belief in the system needed!
2nd: Copacabana Sands (Michael O’Callaghan): significantly upped in class in a Group 3 at Leopardstown in late March where she was very unlucky. A certain future winner and looked quite classy. (On reflection, she came into this race rated 76 having run 5 times at two for a Diego Diaz and improved substantially for O’Callaghan. Handicap mark now ruined (ish) and I won’t be taking a short price.)
Update: Won on second and third starts at 18/5 and 11/2.
5th: Gotomylovely (Fozzy Stack): owned by the best connections, she ran abysmally subsequently at Leopardstown after problems with a slipped bit. This may be to our advantage in time as she will have a modest rating when assessed for handicaps and a target might be the Kerry tracks in time where the Stacks love a winner.
Update: after a mishap on her next start she subsequently won a Gowran maiden at 25/1 in April.
6th: Echinacea (Kevin Coleman): virtually a one-man-band, Coleman has given his syndicate investors/owners some really tasty returns in recent years where demand for placed maiden performers make great returns for export. Every effort will be made to upgrade this filly so I suspect getting her well-handicapped will be the last bead on the rosary. I have a contact in the stable so I should get some extra detail in time.
Update: two more maidens yielded a very workable mark of 67 and now just 63. I was very surprised he went off at 20/1 on handicap debut and finished where a 20/1 should, in rear. I’m fairly confident money will appear for him at some point. Coleman, like Cody, have betting supporters regularly smashing their runners but I’ll be surprised if his is not a plot.
Other qualifiers that go on my dark horse tracker are Thakheera (Denis Hogan),
Update: couldn’t win a Ballinrobe claimer and surprising that Hogan never ran her in a handicap. His owner sent him to Adrian Nicholls thereafter where he’s had a single sighter. Keep an eye on her.
Vega’s Muse (Jessica Harrington),
Update: On previous trends this filly should have won a handicap by now – three runs at an average price of 6/1. Seems poised after her last (best run) and a smashing mark of 64. Has to win off that when the stable is in better spirits.
Real Petite (Tom Mullins)
Put away after a stroll in first try in a handicap off 62 under Seamie Heff at 40/1, no doubt to get the update for future battles. Strong interest in her.
and Curroy Lady (Mark McNiff). These four selections should be a challenging and rewarding follow.
Update: classic winner of the other kind: third start in maiden to get a mark of 49; third on handicap bow and wins next time out at 2/1. Proper training.
Picking up on my latest theme of following what I regard as strong early season maidens we welcome to the stage the 3-y-o one-mile fillies’ maiden run at Naas in March.
The first of two reasons to pay attention to this maiden is that last four winners from 2021 to 2024 have been won on their second (1), third (2) and fourth (1) subsequent outings to produce a 22.5 gain (at S.P.) from 12 bets. It is tempting to say ignore their first subsequent outing as they will be inevitably short in the market and this approach would have produced a return on investment of only 331% which marginally beats what may be available in your local Credit Union. This year’s qualifier is the Ger Lyons Faiyum (by Frankel) who could feature in some good races throughout the season.
Update: won her maiden and second in Group 3. I wouldn’t put you off following this filly wherever she turns up. She has an entry in the Matron and I fancy backing her at tasty prices win or lose.
Somewhat less obvious is how this race can produce handicap winners later in the season with the proviso that they are not running off an official mark in this maiden and do not start unfancied in the market when competing in these handicaps. Studying the handsome returns over the last four years I would have suggest that anything starting over 12/1 would be discounted unless perhaps backed in from more attractive prices.
The horses I would recommend for the tracker are Sharayka (4th- Weld),
Update: second on only start in a maiden. Galway winner.
Torcalot (6th – Harrington),
Update: unraced
Sharpen (7th – D O’Brien: though doesn’t tend to play in handicaps)
Update: won Curragh maiden next start at 14/1.
and in the Hail Mary category both Northern Attitude (Diego Dias)
Update: hit the crossbar at 22/1 (second) in first handicap. Running consistently since and surely wins a handicap soon.
and Lily Parr (S Lavery).
Update: unplaced in first handicap at 28/1. Nice mark of 70 (-2 since handicap bow.) Very much of interest,
Part the fifth
The first black type opportunity for two-year-olds in Ireland is the Listed First Flyer Stakes run at the Curragh over the May Bank Holiday weekend. There were 12 entries and 6 have taken up the opportunity.
As ever, I am interested in the unraced entries in the expectation (or hope!) that those entered have been giving the right signals at home. The relevant (or relative) unknowns are:
Raphello (J P O’Brien) – scratched
A colt by Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare (Floriade), Raphello was bought at Goffs Orby last October for €52,000. Owned by the American, Barry Fowler, who part-owned the excellent Porta Fortuna who collected four Group 1’s in a stellar career for Donnacha O’Brien. Raphello is a full-brother the 2019 mare, Flotus, whose best performances came over 6f in Group 3 and Listed victories for the Crisfords and sold for a cool 1m guineas at the Tatts December mares sale in 2021.
Update: likely nursery winner after one more run.
Call Margot (Diego Dias) – 6th of 6; beaten 5.5L
A £40,000 yearling purchase at Doncaster last August she was highly tried on this her racing bow at Headquarters and I was quite impressed with her run and performance as her S.P. of 100/1 suggested that this was a fact-finding mission. I can’t imagine they will be too disappointed with this run as she ran straight through the line.
Update: likely nursery winner after one more run
Spring Is Here (Joseph O’Brien) - 4th of 6; beaten 2.5L
A second unraced Starspangledbanner from Owning Hilly this filly has a really nice pedigree and fetched €225,000 at Goffs Orby last autumn similar to Raphello (above).
Unfancied at 25/1 she ran a nice race and could develop into a decent sprinter similar to her full-brother Castle Star (2019 c) who won this same Listed Race in 2021 for Fozzy Stack and subsequently the G3 Marble Hill Stakes that same year but didn’t train on subsequently despite finishing 2nd in the Middle Park at the conclusion of his 2yo season.
Update: running well but exposed. Would be all about the price now for me.
Taiyi (J Harrington) - scratched
Unsold at Tatts Ireland last September Taiyi – yet another by Starspangledbanner - is the second foal out of a German mare and grandam who were listed placed over 10F+. Taiyi is a half half-sister to a Dundalk maiden second at Dundalk last November who couldn’t win a Sligo this same weekend. A bit of an enigmatic puzzle.
Update: hard to judge on two runs with JH under a cloud.
Looking back at how the last four years’ first and second finishers subsequently performed it is a mixed bag even if there was one spectacular result:
2021: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2 whilst the second won on the third start at 11/4.
2022: winner won n.t.o. at 5/2, second couldn’t win in 6 subsequent starts.
2023: winner proved disappointing but the second won at Royal Ascot on this second start at 150/1.
2024: winner won second start at 11/10; second won next start at 7/1.
Update: 2025 winner, Lady Iman, won n.t.o. at 2/1, second was unplaced at Ascot but worth following on next runs.
As for the previously unraced performers trying their luck at this elevated level – concentrating on the first 5 home each year – 2021: zero qualifiers, 2022: fifth won on 4th start at 5/2; 2023: first three were unraced and included the Ascot winner mentioned above plus a n.t.o. winner in third at 4/6; 2024: the fourth placed horse was unraced but disappointed.
Update: True Love (2nd) won at Ascot (5/2); 4th Spring Is Here will win shortly.
Plenty of profit but belief in the system needed!
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