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Cupwinkcook
24 Feb 25 21:44
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Date Joined: 23 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 1,528 | Blogger: Cupwinkcook's blog
Chases
Gold Cup
Galopin des Champs will win. The rest doesnt really matter.
Pundits will put up Corbetts Cross each way but the way he jumped the last day, not for me.
Fact to File is the only horse capable of living with Galopin up to a point and he will be rerouted.
English horses struggling.

Champion Chase
I would back Jonbon against this field at most courses, i dont think Cheltenham suits him as much as other tracks but still think he will act on it well enough to win this, but wouldnt want my mortgage on it
Marine Nationale should run well, price about fair
Solness could run well but dont think the track will suit and also think Jonbon's cruising speed will break him, good luck to him though and would like to see him in a rhythm up front
And if he doesnt Il Est Francais might make it

Energumene will run ok but time not on his side at this stage
El Fabiola has too many questions to answer
Gaelic Warrior cant be ruled out completely but price reflects that and no value, doubt he will go the gallop and/or jump well enough
Master Chewy not good enough

There has been some shockers in this race over the years, e.g. last year

However, this year there is depth and even if Jonbon doesnt get his deserved crown, a decent horse will pick up the pieces

Mares
I couldnt back Dinoblue or Allegorie de Vassey at the prices
but i havent got any alternatives
There is a decent race in Bioluminesence but this is unlikely to be it, and would need a bog to shine

Ryanair
Fact to File will be competitive, ran well here last year but will be short
Il Est Francais also short, and track an unknown
Spillanes Tower is a lovely horse, trip too short for me and track an unknown
Djelo has a chance but last year's winner Protektorat hammered him the last day at Windsor and won this hands down  in 2024, yet will start 7s or 8s
English horses are criminally overlooked these days at the Festival
Previews, podcasts etc

Again a race with depth, coz horses are being rerouted from a one horse Gold Cup

English horses



Ryanair
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Report punchestown March 1, 2025 8:26 AM GMT
Would love to see Brighterdaysahead go head to head with Constitution Hill with both having a clear round and see who comes out on top.

I just don't trust Jonbon around Cheltenham and it's a bit like Constitution Hill in that it takes a chance at the odd one.
Report Cupwinkcook March 1, 2025 4:16 PM GMT
El Fabiola has even more questions to answer after that showing in Navan

Grangeclare West 2s to 11 to 2 and runs a stinker also
Willie has 3 runners and still cant win it

more thoughts to follow during the week
Report Cupwinkcook March 7, 2025 8:30 PM GMT
Champion Hurdle
disappointing numbers but a quality field if Lossiemouth turns up


Constitution Hill should cruise along, should break Brighterdaysahead
State Man could crack under the pace, or could crack when Con Hill cruises up, either way i cant have him

if Lossiemouth turns up she could pick up the pieces for the places

state man has regressed but should run his race
lossiemouth would be intruiging but that bad fall last time is a negative
con hill cant be as good as he was, but he is still bloody good

brighterdaysahead is clearly brilliant but didnt run uo to scratch here last year and is the hardest to work out

you pays your money, you takes your choice, but if it goes less than 8 runners(likely) the each way angle is gone
Report Cupwinkcook March 7, 2025 8:39 PM GMT
Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth if she turns up, streets ahead, will stay
the bad fall last time would boher me in the CH but not in this

of the rest, Golden Ace and July Flower are positives, prepared to trust the former to stay


I thought Jade de Grugy was poor last year in the 2m novice but this oppo is similar and the extra half mile will suit, but not for me at these odds
Report Cupwinkcook March 7, 2025 8:48 PM GMT
Stayers
Teauphoo is on the drift probably because of likely good ground

i dont like this race and this year is no different

lucky place and the wallpark could run well
home by the lee doesnt really like the track, but is good enough

some of the outsiders have a squeak like Gowel Road if he turns up

i would place lay Crambo again if he turns up

The Thursday card looks awful with the exception of the Ryanair
I think they have gotten the balance wrong
Report punchestown March 9, 2025 8:36 PM GMT
Looks like PT got his way with Lossiemouth.

Might be the first CH in years where I don't have a win bet,very short prices on horses that have a bit to prove.
Report Cupwinkcook March 10, 2025 10:52 PM GMT
Arkle

Majborough too short
Leau de Sud and Jango Baie arent out of it

happy to place lay the other 2
Report punchestown March 11, 2025 2:20 PM GMT
Jumped like a drunk rabbit.
Report punchestown March 11, 2025 2:21 PM GMT
Backed Jango w/o the fav...Laugh
Report Cupwinkcook March 11, 2025 3:34 PM GMT
bizarre race

i backed leau de sud to be 1st or 2nd and thought he had it in the bag 3 out
Report punchestown March 11, 2025 5:36 PM GMT
Wasn't completely surprised when Const Hill fell but gobsmacked when Stateman departed.
Report Cupwinkcook March 11, 2025 10:57 PM GMT
Place laid King of Kingfields - 3 places at 20, thought it was free money

2 high profile fallers
2 or 3 more interfered with

and 2nd fav went out like a light
talk about lucky

Burdett Road might have won if it hadnt made an early mistake

some of the stables may be under a cloud
Elliott's were poor
De Bromhead's so so

wait and see if that continues tmrw

Cromwell's ran well and hit the crossbar


tomorrow's card looks ok
but Thursday is awful
Report Cupwinkcook March 12, 2025 5:33 PM GMT
escaped the carnage yesterday but not today

will be lying low for the rest of the week

good luck all, you will need it
Report Cupwinkcook March 12, 2025 5:33 PM GMT
escaped the carnage yesterday but not today

will be lying low for the rest of the week

good luck all, you will need it
Report Cupwinkcook March 12, 2025 5:33 PM GMT
escaped the carnage yesterday but not today

will be lying low for the rest of the week

good luck all, you will need it
Report punchestown March 12, 2025 6:55 PM GMT
Jonbon and Ballyburn both atrocious and neither jockey shined.

That Bambino Fever looks a weapon.

JP chucked his money away on todays evidence in the Bumper.
Report Cupwinkcook March 13, 2025 5:06 PM GMT
agree on the jockeyship yesterday

place laid Crambo so that worked out

rest didnt click but not much damage
Report punchestown March 13, 2025 5:47 PM GMT
Lost day 1,up Day 2,Lost day 3...overall a bit down but not much.

I like East India Dock in the opener and Kargese in the County,GDC too short for me in the GC I think I'll chance Banbridge.
Report RoyalAcademy March 14, 2025 2:50 PM GMT
Time of writing (14.48) Elliott has had his 46th consecutive loser at Cheltenham - two winners at Limerick yesterday - and the say "pressure is for tyres". Tell that to Gordon.

Thank god for Sunday and flat racing proper re-starts.
Report Cupwinkcook March 14, 2025 2:57 PM GMT
shock result in the opener hurt

allegorie de vassy falling blew my chance of getting it back

this Cheltenham for me has been like someone hitting Jack Kennedy's bad leg over and over
Report punchestown March 14, 2025 3:39 PM GMT
Hard work alright,I backed 2 in the Albert Bartlett,Wendigo and The Big Westerner and both were right behind the leaders turning in and then went and took each other out....Vanillier in the X Country would surely have gone close without the detour...that's been my Cheltenham this year although I dodged all the hotpots who got chinned.
Report punchestown March 14, 2025 6:55 PM GMT
Corbetts Cross..Cry
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