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pa lapsy
11 Aug 18 10:50
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,625 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Bercasa 4.40 Cork.

I put this into the notebook after her debut,looking at that form now the winner Great Grey (Bercasa 5lths behind) has run well at Galway and the 4th also stacks up well after running well behind a couple of AO'B's lesser lights. Bercasa's run at Fairyhouse was slightly disappointing,she looked a bit unbalanced and was eased off. A fourth followed  at Leopardstown where she was beat nearly 10lths, i think though the winner is 90 rated,the 2nd is mid 80's, behind the 5th that day has finished a close 2nd last night in Tipp.
Before she got her mark i gave her around 65,might be wrong but if not she is well enough in. An average 45-65 handicap,lot of dross in it,Idalia and Beau Rocko head the market and rightly due to their consistent efforts in this type of race.
Worries with Bercasa is no sign of really quickening though she has stayed on and her relative lack of experience, whether she is "off" today is another thing(PP cut her just there from 12's to 9's so she might,14's still around).
Whatever happens i "think" she is well enough treated with that mark.
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Report frank60 August 11, 2018 2:30 PM BST
A tough contest PA, but worth a few shekels E/W,  nice write up as well.
Report pa lapsy August 11, 2018 3:35 PM BST
I'm hopeful Frank,but didn't go mad myself. Big gamble on Finvarra in the race 33's to 6's.
Report pa lapsy August 11, 2018 4:46 PM BST
Sad 6th Frank, she was never nearer, 1m2f seems no prob, balls.
Report frank60 August 11, 2018 4:51 PM BST
Had to run very wide causing him a lot of ground Pa, but like you say one to watch.
Report pa lapsy September 21, 2018 8:57 PM BST
Had no interest in her at the Curragh(not alone as she drifted from 6/1 to 16/1,even for its type that day it looked a hot race,she still ran a fairish race beaten 5 Lths and a small bonus of a 3lb drop. She was also 3rd reserve in what looked a suitable race but i think unlucky not to have gotten in that day.

Tomorrows race has 2 heavy ground in form girls dominating the betting, i prefer Aunty Audrey of them,she was also in form in the death throes of last season also.

Race has made a price for Bercasa@ 16/1,the big obvious question mark is the ground,she has never ran anything like it,on the manner of her racing style to date i'd be hopeful she'd handle it.
Report punchestown September 21, 2018 9:33 PM BST
Anybody see this tonight?


1. HOLLY FLIGHT (FR)
Held up in rear, moderate 6th 3 out, went 4th travelling well enough 2 out, soon ridden along, 4th at last, ridden and kept on without threatening run-in
Report pa lapsy September 21, 2018 10:13 PM BST
Only watched the replay there Punchestown,at best a poor ride, he kept him stuck in behind the ridden Betterthanalright when having plenty of room to go around, went from sitting doing nothing to fierce pressure,it all looked "wrong".
Report pa lapsy October 2, 2018 12:06 PM BST
Hey lads,Bercasa time again,i know the whole forum will be all of a do-dah with the prospect of this 45-65 at Mallow tomorrow and rightly so!

She did well enough at Gowran,plugged on after being unable to get to what seemed the favoured outside rail,(Best Not Argue,who i think rightly got a whopping 13lb for that and maybe Davids Charm might disagree),however again no real turn of foot evident but stayed,she handled that ground well.
Back to better ground,v. slight rise in trip and Mc Cullagh taking over from Shane Foley(rides a lot for Ado anyway) No worries on that, she seems up against a lot of not too consistent horses (Guanabara Bay,No Way Jack,Dragon Girl,maybe Count OF Carabas,Avalanche excepted),plenty of dead wood in the rest of the field though i did look a couple of times at Aubineau's Gowran run,she could a joker but this looks a stronger race.

Be disappointed if Bercasa doesn't at least place,don't think she will be a very big price and the "paper show" of 5/1 won't be too far away,we'll see later.
Report frank60 October 2, 2018 1:39 PM BST
i've just oiled the wheelbarrow Pa, but seriously i will have a punt on Bercasa ,will be keeping on oddchecker for the best price.   Cork  Wed 4.15race
Report pa lapsy October 2, 2018 2:06 PM BST
Hello Frank, i think she "should" win but now the write ups have appeared she certainly isn't under the radar as such and i think it will be a conservative early price.
Her drift at the Curragh (6-16's approx) was telling, she was a lot more steady at Gowran.
Wheelbarrow will be handy for the falling leaves in any case.
Report frank60 October 2, 2018 5:48 PM BST
Grin
Report pa lapsy October 3, 2018 4:20 PM BST
Oh heart to God, she should have won that.Slight chance to come off the rail turning in and he went the wrong way.
Report frank60 October 3, 2018 4:24 PM BST
2nd bt 1/2L Pa ran a great race ,pity he couldnt get out sooner. 10/1 avilable here back down to 11/2
Report workrider October 3, 2018 4:26 PM BST
Yes Pa he made the wrong decision sadly, never mind, sure to get one before the season ends..
Report pa lapsy October 3, 2018 4:26 PM BST
I'd have to look at it again but was silently screaming in me head to come out as there seemed a gap early in straight, race lost as she was full of running.
Report pa lapsy October 3, 2018 4:37 PM BST
Hello WR, yes he went to the right of the eventual winner instead of left,just as they turned in,easy for me to say sitting on my chair in hindsight,  disappointed,thought twas going to be her day.
Report workrider October 4, 2018 10:42 AM BST
On reflection Pa maybe making more use of her might be the answer, when the gap eventually came it took her a while to get going,just a thought.
Report pa lapsy October 4, 2018 11:06 AM BST
Markhan 2.05 Clonmel, BP 20/1,w/o 10/1

I ummed and aahed with this one,WPM's odds on out(didn't like that), it on the betting looks to concern 2, fav Visioman who has the best current form,good level but i think beatable and what looks a plunge on a C Byrnes in Toulson. Toulsons close enough 3rd in a flat race at Listowel where Law Girl and Joey Salsa were not far in front and his flat rating of around 90 says it is well capable.
Of the rest Reaver has run well in his last 2 modest maiden hurdles and fair on the flat with a mid 80 rating, poor form with the rest,Serefeli ran well a few days ago albeit a 45-65 on the flat.
That brings us back to Markhan, i hope it has been well schooled since Navan,jumping wasn't brilliant,i think though beaten 35l it seemed at if 2m ok after racing mostly over 8f through its career(94 top rated), it wasn't given a too hard race. I think the goodish ground will be a plus as the trip could be a problem with heavy in it.
Lots of "ifs", main one is if C B's is off, hurdling has to improve, i think the 20's is worth a chance but i'd be disappointed if unplaced in the w/o Visioman market.
Report pa lapsy October 4, 2018 2:05 PM BST
C B's runner stinking the place out.
Report workrider October 4, 2018 10:24 PM BST
Good call Pa...
Report pa lapsy October 5, 2018 11:26 AM BST
Thanks WR, even given that Toulson probably isn't much good i haven't been so suspicious of a race in a long time,i get the feeling everyone concerned went home happy, was there always only going to be one winner?

I had a feeling beforehand something was up, with the 2nd n/r i wondered was it giving a peno to Toulson,it wasn't as it happened.

Not really worth taking anything out of the race,Marhan except for 4th last jumped a lot better, both him and the 2nd never really "got" to the winner despite looking as if they could.
Report workrider October 5, 2018 12:23 PM BST
Marhan looked exceptional in the Paddock Pa, I was nearly tempted to back it myself,I tried to be smart by backing Byrnes  and it backfired ..
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2018 11:55 AM BST
Raz de Maree, 4.45 Lim Sun @ 25/1 ante post.

Putting a 13yo in a "one to watch" thread is stretching it a bit,the "watch" part is the weather,with storm callum and heavy rain f/c on a few days leading up to Sunday,i'll be surprised if it isn't heavy.
Gavin Cromwell said he'll run if the ground eases so looks an almost assured runner.
He is as slow as a boat and maybe 3m is short enough though he won the race a few years ago,still it doesn't look the strongest of races for a 6 figure pot. I'd have doubts about fav Black Scorpion and more so Blast Of Koeman and Montelbano getting the trip,Kylecrue if lining up should make a pace. Rogue Angel has solid claims,i would like to see another Giggy one in Alpha des Obeaux line up to keep a nice weight for Raz.
If Raz does win it i think will be almost by default,the others will have enough, whatever happens he will plug away.

Is it possible Willie could have the Cesarewitch double? Could well be but with what?  2nd guessing him can prove lethal but Stratum at Newmarket and Limini at Navan looks the obvious way to go?
(ha bookie donation at 1775/1 ew trixie)?
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2018 12:05 PM BST
Sorry fwiw 3550/1 ew trixie.
Report kavvie October 10, 2018 5:01 PM BST
i followed you inn with raz pa,if he runs its hard see him out of the 4 at the very least..
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2018 5:21 PM BST
Not sure about that Kavvie,chance they could go too fast and he'll be way behind,still a lot of positives though,possibility race will cut up,the price(i think that will go),weather f/c and G C saying he is in "good nick",i'd be hopeful he'll run well,we'll see.
Report frank60 October 10, 2018 10:13 PM BST
Pa which bookie has the 25/1 on Raz..ty
Report workrider October 10, 2018 10:27 PM BST
Great to see this great thread going strong...
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2018 10:39 PM BST
Thanks, trying to have some interest in the racing on this forum without making a holy show of myself altogether!
Frank,it is on oddschecker under antepost nh, pp still 25's boils cut to 16,s.
Our man Gavin in good form at Mallow today.
In regards the opening post Stormy Air who beat Bercasa at the last meeting followed up handily enough today, Bercasa herself has an entry at Gowran on the 15th, 45-70 3yo handicap, way too early to speculate on that but it looks as if it could be ideal.

Sound again,be lucky, good weekends racing coming up.
Report cloone river October 10, 2018 11:00 PM BST
And the horse that beat Bercasa  wins today at 7/1.Hard to beat wining form.WINING FORM CAN PUNTERS SEE THE LIGHT??
Report frank60 October 11, 2018 11:25 AM BST
Very good thread  right enough W/R,  took 20/1 [ bet 365]last night on Raz Pa, If the f/cast is right looks like soft ground at least is on the cards.
Report pa lapsy October 11, 2018 12:16 PM BST
Thanks again, places have been doing well on the thread but not winners,hopefully Raz might do it,i am under pressure!!!!

After putting Markhan(1.45 bangor) up earlier,it would be poor not to mention him today.
Has a few positives in the ground is good and his jumping improved last time but looks to be up against a gamble in Khage, very solid fav in Melekov(Johnson for Hobbs) and a Tinahely point winner in Shantaluze,just a watch today,think unlucky to be in what looks like a strong UK maiden.
Gordon will have some winners,short enough but his middle 3 on the card look worthy favs).
Report frank60 October 11, 2018 12:59 PM BST
Markhan has been drifting here in the last hour Pa, like you say maybe a watching brief.
Report pa lapsy October 11, 2018 1:56 PM BST
^ It ran well enough though no show from fav and 2nd fav falling, not sure is he worth perserving with over hurdles though as stamina mightn't be there,probably better off in around 10f on the AW and no surprise he'll go that route.

Limerick going after 5mm good with G to F in places(opp to yesterday),20 mm f/c before racing Sat and more rain that day also.
Report frank60 October 11, 2018 1:56 PM BST
2nd again PA , hard to know how good he ran with the fav running poorly and the 2nd fav falling, having said that plenty of money for the winner.
Report workrider October 11, 2018 3:22 PM BST
Neddyvaughan is a horse I have been keeping a eye on , Christy seemed to be able to get it to win whenever he wanted,hopefully his Son can do the same at Fairy on Sat, he has been running well recently.
Report workrider October 12, 2018 3:14 PM BST
Blast of Keoman is my pick in your race Pa, cant help but be drawn to his run last season at Punchestown were he came pulling double only to make a hash of the last...
Report pa lapsy October 12, 2018 6:15 PM BST
I honestly think he won't get 3m WR,Mr Tyner would know better than me. Donal Murphy gave it a good mention on irishracing(as he did Raz de Maree)
Very open looking race Neddyvaughans, gl wth your picks.
Report frank60 October 12, 2018 6:35 PM BST
Neddyvaughan around 5/1 now Pa,
Report workrider October 13, 2018 5:30 AM BST
Heading to Fairy today Pa, was hoping to go to Limerick tomorrow but taking the Wife out for her birthday instead , after Navan that is, have to get my priorities right!.I was talking to Johnie Ward at the Rovers game last night and told him i fancy Bargy Lady big time today he was having none of it...
Report pa lapsy October 13, 2018 12:13 PM BST
She should win on her hurdle rating WR, she wasn't too fluent at Sligo and laid her for very small money at 1.13/14 in the 4 place market,bet i hate doing but...

Good to firm, mustn't have been a drop of rain there.
Report workrider October 13, 2018 12:41 PM BST
Huge amount Pa over past few days, I'll wait till I see how the ground is first,off there now...
Report pa lapsy October 13, 2018 2:44 PM BST
Good man WR, big drift but except for the last jumped a lot better than Sligo.
Report frank60 October 13, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Well done W/R,   Going heavy in Limerick
Report frank60 October 13, 2018 3:17 PM BST
Neddyvaughan well done PA.  jump well  got 5sHappy
Report pa lapsy October 13, 2018 3:19 PM BST
Not me Frank,Workrider put him up, well done,top tipping,he hacked up.
Report frank60 October 13, 2018 3:36 PM BST
SRY about that W/R 2 tips 2 winners,  nice to see the bookies paying for the wife and yours birthday meal.Happy
Report jimeen October 13, 2018 4:21 PM BST
Well done wonker , a lovely double in all fairness .
Report workrider October 13, 2018 8:11 PM BST
Thanks lads, Westport Lady would have been the icing on the cake, anyone think Patrick gave her to much to do, got 6/4 as well..Sad
Report pa lapsy October 13, 2018 10:19 PM BST
Maybe Davy Russell(Toor General) could be accused of the same WR? think he "thought" he had it covered but was lucky to get a DH out of it.

Frank in regards to your post the ground is "heavy",that would have been correct with the flat course,official description on the NH course this evening is "Yielding", i think it will probably riding "soft",no more rain to come.
Report frank60 October 13, 2018 11:11 PM BST
Thanks Pa, got 27s on Raz here [26/1]  i will be happy with soft ground.
Report workrider October 14, 2018 9:48 AM BST
Yes Pa he looked as if he could have won anytime he wanted, that slight mistake at the last done for him, plenty at the track thought he was done and were glad of the d/h.
Report frank60 October 14, 2018 12:35 PM BST
I see the tote sunday pick 6 has a rollover of 205k at Navan, i think i will leave it alone it looks a tough card.Confused
Report frank60 October 14, 2018 1:35 PM BST
Looks like Raz wont get his ground Pa,      Limerick.. YIELDING (Good to yielding in places) (Mostly sunny)
Report pa lapsy October 14, 2018 4:57 PM BST
That was painful veiwing, couldn't keep up with them,though he did finish and was surprised to see him trying to latch on turning in, a bottomless Welsh Nat maybe again?
disappointed.
Report frank60 October 14, 2018 5:12 PM BST
The exchanges told us all we need to know PA, you could get 60/1 here before the race, What odds on good to yielding ground last thursday,,We will rise again .
Report kavvie October 15, 2018 6:31 PM BST
yea sadly the ground was totally against raz...as frank says our day will come
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