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Bercasa 4.40 Cork.
I put this into the notebook after her debut,looking at that form now the winner Great Grey (Bercasa 5lths behind) has run well at Galway and the 4th also stacks up well after running well behind a couple of AO'B's lesser lights. Bercasa's run at Fairyhouse was slightly disappointing,she looked a bit unbalanced and was eased off. A fourth followed at Leopardstown where she was beat nearly 10lths, i think though the winner is 90 rated,the 2nd is mid 80's, behind the 5th that day has finished a close 2nd last night in Tipp.
Before she got her mark i gave her around 65,might be wrong but if not she is well enough in. An average 45-65 handicap,lot of dross in it,Idalia and Beau Rocko head the market and rightly due to their consistent efforts in this type of race.
Worries with Bercasa is no sign of really quickening though she has stayed on and her relative lack of experience, whether she is "off" today is another thing(PP cut her just there from 12's to 9's so she might,14's still around).
Whatever happens i "think" she is well enough treated with that mark.
I put this into the notebook after her debut,looking at that form now the winner Great Grey (Bercasa 5lths behind) has run well at Galway and the 4th also stacks up well after running well behind a couple of AO'B's lesser lights. Bercasa's run at Fairyhouse was slightly disappointing,she looked a bit unbalanced and was eased off. A fourth followed at Leopardstown where she was beat nearly 10lths, i think though the winner is 90 rated,the 2nd is mid 80's, behind the 5th that day has finished a close 2nd last night in Tipp.
Before she got her mark i gave her around 65,might be wrong but if not she is well enough in. An average 45-65 handicap,lot of dross in it,Idalia and Beau Rocko head the market and rightly due to their consistent efforts in this type of race.
Worries with Bercasa is no sign of really quickening though she has stayed on and her relative lack of experience, whether she is "off" today is another thing(PP cut her just there from 12's to 9's so she might,14's still around).
Whatever happens i "think" she is well enough treated with that mark.
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A tough contest PA, but worth a few shekels E/W, nice write up as well.
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I'm hopeful Frank,but didn't go mad myself. Big gamble on Finvarra in the race 33's to 6's.
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 6th Frank, she was never nearer, 1m2f seems no prob, balls. |
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Had to run very wide causing him a lot of ground Pa, but like you say one to watch.
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Had no interest in her at the Curragh(not alone as she drifted from 6/1 to 16/1,even for its type that day it looked a hot race,she still ran a fairish race beaten 5 Lths and a small bonus of a 3lb drop. She was also 3rd reserve in what looked a suitable race but i think unlucky not to have gotten in that day.
Tomorrows race has 2 heavy ground in form girls dominating the betting, i prefer Aunty Audrey of them,she was also in form in the death throes of last season also. Race has made a price for Bercasa@ 16/1,the big obvious question mark is the ground,she has never ran anything like it,on the manner of her racing style to date i'd be hopeful she'd handle it. |
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Anybody see this tonight?
1. HOLLY FLIGHT (FR) Held up in rear, moderate 6th 3 out, went 4th travelling well enough 2 out, soon ridden along, 4th at last, ridden and kept on without threatening run-in |
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Only watched the replay there Punchestown,at best a poor ride, he kept him stuck in behind the ridden Betterthanalright when having plenty of room to go around, went from sitting doing nothing to fierce pressure,it all looked "wrong".
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Hey lads,Bercasa time again,i know the whole forum will be all of a do-dah with the prospect of this 45-65 at Mallow tomorrow and rightly so!
She did well enough at Gowran,plugged on after being unable to get to what seemed the favoured outside rail,(Best Not Argue,who i think rightly got a whopping 13lb for that and maybe Davids Charm might disagree),however again no real turn of foot evident but stayed,she handled that ground well. Back to better ground,v. slight rise in trip and Mc Cullagh taking over from Shane Foley(rides a lot for Ado anyway) No worries on that, she seems up against a lot of not too consistent horses (Guanabara Bay,No Way Jack,Dragon Girl,maybe Count OF Carabas,Avalanche excepted),plenty of dead wood in the rest of the field though i did look a couple of times at Aubineau's Gowran run,she could a joker but this looks a stronger race. Be disappointed if Bercasa doesn't at least place,don't think she will be a very big price and the "paper show" of 5/1 won't be too far away,we'll see later. |
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i've just oiled the wheelbarrow Pa, but seriously i will have a punt on Bercasa ,will be keeping on oddchecker for the best price. Cork Wed 4.15race
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Hello Frank, i think she "should" win but now the write ups have appeared she certainly isn't under the radar as such and i think it will be a conservative early price.
Her drift at the Curragh (6-16's approx) was telling, she was a lot more steady at Gowran. Wheelbarrow will be handy for the falling leaves in any case. |
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Oh heart to God, she should have won that.Slight chance to come off the rail turning in and he went the wrong way.
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2nd bt 1/2L Pa ran a great race ,pity he couldnt get out sooner. 10/1 avilable here back down to 11/2
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Yes Pa he made the wrong decision sadly, never mind, sure to get one before the season ends..
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I'd have to look at it again but was silently screaming in me head to come out as there seemed a gap early in straight, race lost as she was full of running.
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Hello WR, yes he went to the right of the eventual winner instead of left,just as they turned in,easy for me to say sitting on my chair in hindsight, disappointed,thought twas going to be her day.
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On reflection Pa maybe making more use of her might be the answer, when the gap eventually came it took her a while to get going,just a thought.
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Markhan 2.05 Clonmel, BP 20/1,w/o 10/1
I ummed and aahed with this one,WPM's odds on out(didn't like that), it on the betting looks to concern 2, fav Visioman who has the best current form,good level but i think beatable and what looks a plunge on a C Byrnes in Toulson. Toulsons close enough 3rd in a flat race at Listowel where Law Girl and Joey Salsa were not far in front and his flat rating of around 90 says it is well capable. Of the rest Reaver has run well in his last 2 modest maiden hurdles and fair on the flat with a mid 80 rating, poor form with the rest,Serefeli ran well a few days ago albeit a 45-65 on the flat. That brings us back to Markhan, i hope it has been well schooled since Navan,jumping wasn't brilliant,i think though beaten 35l it seemed at if 2m ok after racing mostly over 8f through its career(94 top rated), it wasn't given a too hard race. I think the goodish ground will be a plus as the trip could be a problem with heavy in it. Lots of "ifs", main one is if C B's is off, hurdling has to improve, i think the 20's is worth a chance but i'd be disappointed if unplaced in the w/o Visioman market. |
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C B's runner stinking the place out.
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Good call Pa...
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Thanks WR, even given that Toulson probably isn't much good i haven't been so suspicious of a race in a long time,i get the feeling everyone concerned went home happy, was there always only going to be one winner?
I had a feeling beforehand something was up, with the 2nd n/r i wondered was it giving a peno to Toulson,it wasn't as it happened. Not really worth taking anything out of the race,Marhan except for 4th last jumped a lot better, both him and the 2nd never really "got" to the winner despite looking as if they could. |
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Marhan looked exceptional in the Paddock Pa, I was nearly tempted to back it myself,I tried to be smart by backing Byrnes and it backfired ..
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Raz de Maree, 4.45 Lim Sun @ 25/1 ante post.
Putting a 13yo in a "one to watch" thread is stretching it a bit,the "watch" part is the weather,with storm callum and heavy rain f/c on a few days leading up to Sunday,i'll be surprised if it isn't heavy. Gavin Cromwell said he'll run if the ground eases so looks an almost assured runner. He is as slow as a boat and maybe 3m is short enough though he won the race a few years ago,still it doesn't look the strongest of races for a 6 figure pot. I'd have doubts about fav Black Scorpion and more so Blast Of Koeman and Montelbano getting the trip,Kylecrue if lining up should make a pace. Rogue Angel has solid claims,i would like to see another Giggy one in Alpha des Obeaux line up to keep a nice weight for Raz. If Raz does win it i think will be almost by default,the others will have enough, whatever happens he will plug away. Is it possible Willie could have the Cesarewitch double? Could well be but with what? 2nd guessing him can prove lethal but Stratum at Newmarket and Limini at Navan looks the obvious way to go? (ha bookie donation at 1775/1 ew trixie)? |
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Sorry fwiw 3550/1 ew trixie.
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i followed you inn with raz pa,if he runs its hard see him out of the 4 at the very least..
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Not sure about that Kavvie,chance they could go too fast and he'll be way behind,still a lot of positives though,possibility race will cut up,the price(i think that will go),weather f/c and G C saying he is in "good nick",i'd be hopeful he'll run well,we'll see.
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Pa which bookie has the 25/1 on Raz..ty
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Great to see this great thread going strong...
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Thanks, trying to have some interest in the racing on this forum without making a holy show of myself altogether!
Frank,it is on oddschecker under antepost nh, pp still 25's boils cut to 16,s. Our man Gavin in good form at Mallow today. In regards the opening post Stormy Air who beat Bercasa at the last meeting followed up handily enough today, Bercasa herself has an entry at Gowran on the 15th, 45-70 3yo handicap, way too early to speculate on that but it looks as if it could be ideal. Sound again,be lucky, good weekends racing coming up. |
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And the horse that beat Bercasa wins today at 7/1.Hard to beat wining form.WINING FORM CAN PUNTERS SEE THE LIGHT??
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Very good thread right enough W/R, took 20/1 [ bet 365]last night on Raz Pa, If the f/cast is right looks like soft ground at least is on the cards.
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Thanks again, places have been doing well on the thread but not winners,hopefully Raz might do it,i am under pressure!!!!
After putting Markhan(1.45 bangor) up earlier,it would be poor not to mention him today. Has a few positives in the ground is good and his jumping improved last time but looks to be up against a gamble in Khage, very solid fav in Melekov(Johnson for Hobbs) and a Tinahely point winner in Shantaluze,just a watch today,think unlucky to be in what looks like a strong UK maiden. Gordon will have some winners,short enough but his middle 3 on the card look worthy favs). |
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Markhan has been drifting here in the last hour Pa, like you say maybe a watching brief.
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^ It ran well enough though no show from fav and 2nd fav falling, not sure is he worth perserving with over hurdles though as stamina mightn't be there,probably better off in around 10f on the AW and no surprise he'll go that route.
Limerick going after 5mm good with G to F in places(opp to yesterday),20 mm f/c before racing Sat and more rain that day also. |
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2nd again PA , hard to know how good he ran with the fav running poorly and the 2nd fav falling, having said that plenty of money for the winner.
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Neddyvaughan is a horse I have been keeping a eye on , Christy seemed to be able to get it to win whenever he wanted,hopefully his Son can do the same at Fairy on Sat, he has been running well recently.
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Blast of Keoman is my pick in your race Pa, cant help but be drawn to his run last season at Punchestown were he came pulling double only to make a hash of the last...
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I honestly think he won't get 3m WR,Mr Tyner would know better than me. Donal Murphy gave it a good mention on irishracing(as he did Raz de Maree)
Very open looking race Neddyvaughans, gl wth your picks. |
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Neddyvaughan around 5/1 now Pa,
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