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12 Apr 17 12:12
Date Joined: 05 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 1,358 | Blogger: RoyalAcademy's blog
Not for the first time I am looking at Tramore results and seeing that "trainers for courses" is at times as good a winner-finding strategy as any other.

Every expert nowadays needs to snaffle an early price and its all based on interpreting the form book, probability and scurrying for prices.

Con O'Keeffe, David O'Brien and John Nicholson all share a few things in common: they are small, they are relatively local and they take their chances when many of the big boys are not looking. Is Tramore a curious exception or does this happen more regularly than might be expected? (Some years ago, a list of Limerick Christmas winners would include winner after winner for Hourigan, McNamara (Andy and Eric), Byrnes etc. and a host of other small yards)
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Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2017 5:31 PM BST
peckerdunne  • April 12, 2017 10:18 AM BST 
Interesting ratio of views to reply's on a forum supposedly dying a slow death.
They are always watching us watching them...Grin

par for the course....(80 views and Zero comments)
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2017 5:48 PM BST
Tramore regular Icelip registered his third win at the Co Waterford venue today, landing the Win Big With Jackpot Races 3-6 Handicap Hurdle for trainer David O’Brien and under jockey Sean Flanagan. Today was Icelip’s ninth start and third win at the venue and afterwards trainer O’Brien stated “...He will be kept to local tracks and is a great fun horse.” He added “it's great for John 'Bubbles' Grant (member of the Fastey For Fun Syndicate) who had his 90th birthday party on Friday. He’s from Waterford and has Double Windsor with me as well. He was singing and dancing Friday night, out until 4 o'clock!”

Trainer Andrew Slattery returns to scene of first winner.....I actually trained my first winner in this race back in 1997 with a horse called Shaws Cross and the jockey who rode him was Paul Moloney, and it was also his first ever winner over fences.

Trainer John W Nicholson....."this is is a lucky track for me, and Finny (Maguire) has been a lucky for me. I rang him the other night and told him this was a half decent horse (Fort Montagu) 16/1, so he said he'd see if he could get off study! . I didn't have him when he ran in his point-to-point, but it was soft ground then and he is a good ground horse. He'd gallop for Ireland, is a smashing horse and I only have him a month. I got him from Ross O'Sullivan and he had done plenty of work with him. I have an excuse now to go to Punchestown - if the ground is good he'll run in a winners bumper".

Lots of local owners too I suggest who may not like to travel too far - Killarney and Cooper used to go hand-in-hand while Gordon is the King of Navan these days. Devil
Report pa lapsy April 12, 2017 5:49 PM BST
Personally very slow to back a horse there,i don,t think form is the end all,handle the track and a trainer laying one out there more important.
There was a spate of horses slipping on the bend there for a while,thankfully haven't seen that happen for a while.
Report punchestown April 13, 2017 11:21 AM BST
I think Shay Barry has the odd winner or two there....Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 13, 2017 11:51 AM BST
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 13, 2017 11:51 AM BST
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 13, 2017 11:53 AM BST
As a jockey Barry recorded his first career success at Tramore on the Paddy Mullins trained Arch Duchess at the 1989 August Festival and went over the next 14 years to enjoy much success at his local track.
Report RoyalAcademy April 13, 2017 3:00 PM BST
New Ross-based Don Cashman's winner, War Of The Pennys, last August would be as good an example of my theory as one could find. Some trainers would be more, ahem, "adept" at training than others I would also caution.

Have we no-one from Ballinrobe, Sligo, Down Royal/Downpatrick, Dundalk, Gowran, Kilbeggan, Galway (even!) - Val O'Brien et al - Limerick etc. etc. etc. prepared to offer an opinion? My favourite T4C at the Curragh is the Eyrefield House man.

Something along similar lines would be the Geegeez "stat of the day" which although again dependent on morning prices to show shiny returns (because of herd stampeding) is proven, reliable and soundly-based.
Report monarch April 13, 2017 3:20 PM BST
Parish pump training. Know Eoin Doyle always targetted horses at Tramore as lots of his owners are local to him, therefore pretty local to Tramore (also about the same distance to Gowran). As regards Gowran lots of local trainers get winners their for the same reason. Any of the Mullins', Shark, Pat Fahey etc. Also newish trainer Ellemarie Holden has had a few winners in Gowran i think
Report one last chance April 13, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Mark Mcniff normally has a winner at Downpatrick
Report RoyalAcademy April 13, 2017 4:29 PM BST
"Parish pump" is obviously a derogatory term and I dare say there is a little more nuance involved. If you think that my point is following Eoin Doyle, Shark or anyone else blindly at any of those venues you're missing the point. My main contention would be that if you do find these winners you will usually be profiting handsomely at Betfair SP.

An everyday example would be a local trainer with a record of, say 3 winners from 25 runners over 5 years. A little investigation shows that a) only 6 of those runners started at less than 10/1 and included all 3 winners; the trainer was 0-12 over fences and 0-5 in bumpers at the venue. His three winners were over hurdles. Cashman's horse was a previous course winner (for a different trainer) and was backed at early prices.

So "parish pump", "silver spoon", "festival trainer", "gambling yard", "owner/breeder", they all pay in euro notes if you strike.
Report monarch April 13, 2017 4:49 PM BST
No doubt RA that there is more nuance to it. Simply meant that every "local" trainer/owner/jockey enjoys a win at their local track. I know an owner near to me who once called Tramore his "Cheltenham"
Report pa lapsy April 13, 2017 4:51 PM BST
By your example ie 3 winners in 5 years,you would be waiting nearly 2 years for one,yes you can multiply the trainers and tracks to give it a semblance of time respectability and that even presumes you hit the "right" one each time,ie Tyners are often well backed in Mallow but he has just the 3 winners from 53 runners over te last 3 seasons.
""Idiosyncratic" sums up Tramore in particular,I kmow by your past posts you certainly aren't relying on this i will call it "obscure" angle,surely the emphasis should be on form horses on fair tracks ie Navan,Naas etc,maybe another angle is when the "parochial" trainer actually leaves the parish?
Report neill d April 13, 2017 5:06 PM BST
Too easy to say a horse didn't act there, for me. Grand spot for a stopping, don't like it.
Report RoyalAcademy April 13, 2017 5:34 PM BST
Take your point pa but I have learned to be very patient over the years and I don't want to play every day. I just prefer to be always against the market, where possible.

I'm not a particular fan of Tra Mhor but I always like the market contrarian angle. It takes some solid research before you come to any conclusions. I spent a few hours reviewing the results of the Racing Post Cheltenham 2017 Guide a few nights ago (multiply it by 30 such publications)-that alone would tell you that your own informed view is better on most occasions. The notion of bankers, Ruby, Willie and now Gordon is absolutely anathema to me. The exception would be the stables' second and third selected.

I used to get great sport from following the market on Pricewise tips and noting anything "cold" that drifted because the general public was against them thanks to TS. Unfortunately, recent experience is that movements all tend to be shorteners with little or nothing drifting of any consequence. If anyone remembers the old Handicap Book - now Raceform Update -  and the enigma of Van Der Wheil it was far easier to mould your own opinion. Select-study-bet...and pray!
Report neill d April 13, 2017 5:55 PM BST
Don't think there is anything wrong with getting absolutely stuck into a good Mullins novice at Cheltenham, or anywhere really, especially his hurdlers and with what seems to be a bit of a re-emergence from Henderson, prices could be a lot more competitive.

From observation, I'd say Gordon is a bit harder on his horses and will run them more often; he is likely to have more blowouts as an ambitious campaigner. I cannot find it, but I'm sure he said early season that Death Duty wasn't the same league as Don Cossack, but once the hype took hold, he kind of went along with it.

I think a lot of the top Irish trainers are pretty spot on in what they say, and their horses run to about what they say. Melon, for example, did everything his trainer said he would & was done by a horse who was very difficult to legislate for (some here did, brilliantly, I might add). They were very open about how sweet they were on Un De Sceaux for the Ryanair, I had written off Nicholls Canyon as done, Mullins said in the press not to.

Even Aidan O'Brien, is very clear about when his horses are prepping these days. I didn't make money at Cheltenham this year, but I can see how people did toward the front of the market. There is a lot of literature about real contrarian betting, but I have always found it impossible mentally as I think Pa is alluding to.

On thing I will say about betting on good horses, I think people/markets overrate experience, ability is the most important factor. I also think home advantage is overplayed in team sports.
Report neill d April 13, 2017 6:02 PM BST
Also on team sports, defensive qualities I fell are overrated; I think it is the team with the most firepower that typically wins out. Chelsea's back 3, especially Luiz, are exceptional distributors for their positions, they also have the best attacker in the league, this is overlooked to me when analysts explain their success this season.

People will look at Barca/Juventus and see the same again, but Barcelona lost as much because their midfield is miles past prime as their defence. Nothing will be made of the fact that Real Madrid could've put 7 or 8 on Munich with Nacho at centre-back.

There is good reason why top forwards earn the most money.
Report pa lapsy April 13, 2017 6:05 PM BST
I remember Van der Wheil,the handicaps "Dallas" for weeks,think he left out the last missing piece to put everyone on the path to untold riches!

George B has a thread on the main forum(Notebook),mostly UK AW but the principles of his picking is quite brilliant, anyone could learn from it and well worth a look.
Report Eddie Batt April 15, 2017 9:27 PM BST
Tramore is my local track and when I went there for the first time in the early 80's my father told me it was a rogues track and the most important thing to look out for was local owners or trainers trying to land a touch.The track has improved over the years but the local angle is still massively important.Fran Berry was a legend at the track -Mick Kinane was afraid of it.Ruby probably rides it better than anyone else.Willie Mullins is a director at the track and Penhill won there last summer-de Bromhead likes to have a winner there-Elle Marie Holden is one to keep an eye on.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2017 10:54 PM BST
Eddie Batt • April 15, 2017 9:27 PM BST....."Elle Marie Holden is one to keep an eye on".

Rachel Blackmore is within touching distance of becoming the first female rider to become Champion Conditional Jockey and partnered a double at Cork today, when steering a double for trainer Ellmarie Holden in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase with Static Jack. Blackmore, who partnered Look Closer to win the opener, moved seven winners clear (31-24) of Donagh Meyler at the head of the Claimers’ title with just 13 days until the end of the season. Following Static Jack’s comfortable win, trainer Holden stated “he had his ground and trip and Rachel is on fire! She gave him a super ride. "It was his first run over fences so I didn't know what way it would go. I've nothing in mind but it's been a good weekend so far." (EM Holden also had a winner in Lmk on Thursday).
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