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11 Aug 16
12:40
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Date Joined:
05 Jun 08
With a little free time on my hands yesterday I watched the Gowran betting market fairly closely with a view of interpreting and rationalising what I was seeing and here are my conclusions taking all the results into account:
7f 2yo maiden:
All the money here was for Halford’s Moritzburg who was being forgiven a somewhat disappointing run in a Curragh maiden last time – 8th behind Stack’s winner – and he seemed to be backed off the board. These benevolent “forgiving” punters got it wrong and we were left with a typically sagacious Bolger winner:
“She must have got stage fright the last day as I expected her to run well. I've always liked her although I seem to be in a minority around our place. The dam was an expensive foal at Keeneland, and is from the same family as Dartmouth. She could be a nice filly next year.”
She started 25/1 on her first start here a few weeks back and either Bolger was talking complete nonsense or else he is accurate in his assessment and just maybe punters latch on to his horses from a variety of other stable sources. He does seem to disdain betting.
With on-course money only for Ken Condon’s runner, Ice Cold in Alex, (third) he is the one for me. No early prices taken and one wonders why or what’s the rationale behind that?
7f nursery:
Ana O’Brien wins on Joseph’s complete drifter and his 5/2 second-favourite finishes last. After a recent study of all nurseries run in Ireland over the past 7 years I’m not convinced there’s many angles worth pursuing here in these contests although collateral form lines and subsequent marks might offer something but, generally, I find such insights assist with 3yo's+. Thoughts?
McEnery Handicap:
Interesting result. The much-maligned “Shark” seemed to sweeten this lad up last season – had been with Suroor, Johnson and Ferguson – and was a first flat winner for Holden’s daughter. (Eoin Doyle the loser here). Bookies probably priced up the trainer early morning (12/1) and connections took off- and on-course prices to 5/1. His second here behind Queen Alpha bet gave him a chance but hats off to a successful betting outcome.
Hurry Harriet Stakes
At one point yesterday I checked every Wachman runner that ran this season at 5/1 or less and the results were very bad. This was on the back of early support for Assume although the on-course price seemed weaker. Wachman is costing someone dearly this year although they are almost guaranteed to place rather than win.
I backed my “dark horse” Molly Dolly and, if I’m lucky, there will be a big pay day when all goes right, as it needs to.
There was another on-course gamble on a Charles O’Brien runner (2nd) so someone still believes in the racecourse market.
Fillies handicap
They went for Keatley’s 3yo (Rahyah) again and they now have a Galway and Kilkenny wound to lick. Three runs, three okay performances and perhaps she needs 10f+ like all her three winning siblings. Keatley seems to have a reputation for getting it right but I suspect this lassie wins when confidence will be in lesser supply. This is a good pedigree and there’s a lot at stake if Rahyah can win as she only cost £18,000 from Godolphin earlier this year-she was a £75,000 yearling so it looks good business already.
Apprentice handicap
I’ll always watch an old fogey like Pat Flynn because he depends on seasoned, partially-shrivelled handicappers there days. His ultra-loyal Cooney patrons just failed by a short-head to land a lot of support here with Jessamine and it was bad luck. Flynn trained this lad’s dam and all her subsequent progeny to win plenty of races and a good run might mean watching further support for the yard in weeks to come. Narrowly failing with this “inspired” mini-gamble must be soul-destroying.
If you back a horse like Ask Katie – rated bottom-drawer 45 – you are playing the Lottery while there is probably a race in Brog Deas Nua but, boy, you will need patience and perseverance and the trainer rarely scores so not for me.
Fillies maiden
A “bridesmaid” fav who could be taken on and I was thinking that forecast SP of 16/1 about dark horse World Of Good was too big. It quickly disappeared –if ever available - and she was backed into 6/1, probably for small money. She was easier on-course at 8’s and finished 4th of 5. She has plenty of fancy entries still and possibly needed this run. I’ll follow her for the moment.
You possibly ignore support for a Harrington horse at your peril and seeing the early money (9-6) should have prompted some research. Jessie says if you went to the trouble you would have seen Nearly Famous – not by Famous Name unfortunately - being unlucky at Galway and this was a tasty little pick up for those in the know. The horse was also popular on course.
Please feel free to add comments/observations with a semblance of civility.
7f 2yo maiden:
All the money here was for Halford’s Moritzburg who was being forgiven a somewhat disappointing run in a Curragh maiden last time – 8th behind Stack’s winner – and he seemed to be backed off the board. These benevolent “forgiving” punters got it wrong and we were left with a typically sagacious Bolger winner:
“She must have got stage fright the last day as I expected her to run well. I've always liked her although I seem to be in a minority around our place. The dam was an expensive foal at Keeneland, and is from the same family as Dartmouth. She could be a nice filly next year.”
She started 25/1 on her first start here a few weeks back and either Bolger was talking complete nonsense or else he is accurate in his assessment and just maybe punters latch on to his horses from a variety of other stable sources. He does seem to disdain betting.
With on-course money only for Ken Condon’s runner, Ice Cold in Alex, (third) he is the one for me. No early prices taken and one wonders why or what’s the rationale behind that?
7f nursery:
Ana O’Brien wins on Joseph’s complete drifter and his 5/2 second-favourite finishes last. After a recent study of all nurseries run in Ireland over the past 7 years I’m not convinced there’s many angles worth pursuing here in these contests although collateral form lines and subsequent marks might offer something but, generally, I find such insights assist with 3yo's+. Thoughts?
McEnery Handicap:
Interesting result. The much-maligned “Shark” seemed to sweeten this lad up last season – had been with Suroor, Johnson and Ferguson – and was a first flat winner for Holden’s daughter. (Eoin Doyle the loser here). Bookies probably priced up the trainer early morning (12/1) and connections took off- and on-course prices to 5/1. His second here behind Queen Alpha bet gave him a chance but hats off to a successful betting outcome.
Hurry Harriet Stakes
At one point yesterday I checked every Wachman runner that ran this season at 5/1 or less and the results were very bad. This was on the back of early support for Assume although the on-course price seemed weaker. Wachman is costing someone dearly this year although they are almost guaranteed to place rather than win.
I backed my “dark horse” Molly Dolly and, if I’m lucky, there will be a big pay day when all goes right, as it needs to.
There was another on-course gamble on a Charles O’Brien runner (2nd) so someone still believes in the racecourse market.
Fillies handicap
They went for Keatley’s 3yo (Rahyah) again and they now have a Galway and Kilkenny wound to lick. Three runs, three okay performances and perhaps she needs 10f+ like all her three winning siblings. Keatley seems to have a reputation for getting it right but I suspect this lassie wins when confidence will be in lesser supply. This is a good pedigree and there’s a lot at stake if Rahyah can win as she only cost £18,000 from Godolphin earlier this year-she was a £75,000 yearling so it looks good business already.
Apprentice handicap
I’ll always watch an old fogey like Pat Flynn because he depends on seasoned, partially-shrivelled handicappers there days. His ultra-loyal Cooney patrons just failed by a short-head to land a lot of support here with Jessamine and it was bad luck. Flynn trained this lad’s dam and all her subsequent progeny to win plenty of races and a good run might mean watching further support for the yard in weeks to come. Narrowly failing with this “inspired” mini-gamble must be soul-destroying.
If you back a horse like Ask Katie – rated bottom-drawer 45 – you are playing the Lottery while there is probably a race in Brog Deas Nua but, boy, you will need patience and perseverance and the trainer rarely scores so not for me.
Fillies maiden
A “bridesmaid” fav who could be taken on and I was thinking that forecast SP of 16/1 about dark horse World Of Good was too big. It quickly disappeared –if ever available - and she was backed into 6/1, probably for small money. She was easier on-course at 8’s and finished 4th of 5. She has plenty of fancy entries still and possibly needed this run. I’ll follow her for the moment.
You possibly ignore support for a Harrington horse at your peril and seeing the early money (9-6) should have prompted some research. Jessie says if you went to the trouble you would have seen Nearly Famous – not by Famous Name unfortunately - being unlucky at Galway and this was a tasty little pick up for those in the know. The horse was also popular on course.
Please feel free to add comments/observations with a semblance of civility.
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1St Race: Halfords horse will never win a race. It was a desperate maiden full of duds. Hoban is a poor jockey.
The shark didnt sweeten up the horse. Leaving his stable did that!
Pat Flynn is an awful trainer. He has made a bags of the filly. In any decent yard she would be a 75+ filly but she will probably be still waiting to break her madien this time next year and when she does it will be in spite of him and not because of him. I have backed her the last twice. I also backed the third at 32 on here.
Another brutal trainer is John Murphy. It really is the route any small owner should take. Buying horses with any bit of form out of these stables and sending it to any hald decent trainer. You are bound to have 20 pounds to play with. His horse was easy to back at 13+ on here.
The shark didnt sweeten up the horse. Leaving his stable did that!
Pat Flynn is an awful trainer. He has made a bags of the filly. In any decent yard she would be a 75+ filly but she will probably be still waiting to break her madien this time next year and when she does it will be in spite of him and not because of him. I have backed her the last twice. I also backed the third at 32 on here.
Another brutal trainer is John Murphy. It really is the route any small owner should take. Buying horses with any bit of form out of these stables and sending it to any hald decent trainer. You are bound to have 20 pounds to play with. His horse was easy to back at 13+ on here.
Mentioning the shark, Pat Flynn, Charles O'Brien and John Murphy on the same thread was never going to inspire willy!!
what put you on to McCutcheon's filly-hard to believe as a 70's placed filly out of Gosdens she seemed to cost just 6 grand and her mark has now dropped by 11lbs-maybe I'm answering my own question.
what put you on to McCutcheon's filly-hard to believe as a 70's placed filly out of Gosdens she seemed to cost just 6 grand and her mark has now dropped by 11lbs-maybe I'm answering my own question.
She was stone lower than when she first arrived. She was running her over 12+13F on soft ground and then dropped back to 9F at Leopardstown where she ran a nice race getting outpaced but running on nicely in a far better race. Took a chance at the price but ultimately lack of strength in the saddle cost her the win.
Agree about Brog Deas Nua. There is a race in him, whether he wants to win or not i dont know. However being trained by Pat Flynn for 3 years would turn anyone off the game!!!
Agree about Brog Deas Nua. There is a race in him, whether he wants to win or not i dont know. However being trained by Pat Flynn for 3 years would turn anyone off the game!!!
Tramore:
the list of horses backed early yesterday finished 2(HdeB),W 13/8(Ted),2(Shay B),2 (Andy Mac & Ruby),L,W 2/1(Coolfighter),W 3/1 (Craig Star from 7's),3
The local lads' horses ran well but hit the bar a lot. Ted is no slouch when one is fancied and this was yet more very good placing-course specialist. The one horse I will keep an eye on is Don Cashman's Bobbythegangster: just outsprinted & finished third. Trainer has yet to score on the track but this horse gives him a chance off 91 over 2.5m on, probably, any ground now that they have ran him over all trips. First time a pro rode him yesterday & will be interesting to see what advice Andrew Lynch gave them afterwards. Con O'Keeffe's Kilbarry Marien has to go back schooling but there will be other days when she runs here and will be fancied-responsible for the "L" above.
Leopardstown:
Apologies for stating the obvious but when a DK maiden is backed it will win (usually)and a drifter in the market will be found in the car park. Sharliyna and Zeraniya for the QED.
Ducky Mallon is more than ready to win again and has suffered with two bad draws but two very good runs latest & is on a winning mark.7f rather than 6f would add to confidence.
the list of horses backed early yesterday finished 2(HdeB),W 13/8(Ted),2(Shay B),2 (Andy Mac & Ruby),L,W 2/1(Coolfighter),W 3/1 (Craig Star from 7's),3
The local lads' horses ran well but hit the bar a lot. Ted is no slouch when one is fancied and this was yet more very good placing-course specialist. The one horse I will keep an eye on is Don Cashman's Bobbythegangster: just outsprinted & finished third. Trainer has yet to score on the track but this horse gives him a chance off 91 over 2.5m on, probably, any ground now that they have ran him over all trips. First time a pro rode him yesterday & will be interesting to see what advice Andrew Lynch gave them afterwards. Con O'Keeffe's Kilbarry Marien has to go back schooling but there will be other days when she runs here and will be fancied-responsible for the "L" above.
Leopardstown:
Apologies for stating the obvious but when a DK maiden is backed it will win (usually)and a drifter in the market will be found in the car park. Sharliyna and Zeraniya for the QED.
Ducky Mallon is more than ready to win again and has suffered with two bad draws but two very good runs latest & is on a winning mark.7f rather than 6f would add to confidence.
i just posted and it was deleted?..
thanks for the read royal?
thanks for the read royal?
Tramore (Friday):
Just 24 hours after mentioning New Ross rookie handler/trainer Don Cashman as striving for his first ever winner under Rules, up he pops with the gambled-on War Of The Pennys (9/1) to leave me cursing my luck. I’m certain there were no advertised market moves for this lad until very late in the evening although he opened on course at 10’s having been freely available all day at 16’s and bigger. I had spotted the entry but a lack of an earlier “tickle” meant I never checked his form. That revealed he was a course and distance winner with placed handicap hurdle form here in the past off a 10lbs higher mark and he was easily identifiable as one of the leading dangers. On the positive side, it shows once again many of the clues are there if you dig deep enough. The undoubted injection of confidence into the Bethlehem-like stable -can only house a few beasts - may give Bobbythegangster the necessary oomph shortly.
Paul Holden of Callan must be thinking the game is easy now that his daughter is training his stock and Sir Jack **** – backed from all sorts of fancy prices – was the owner’s second significant winner in three days. I’d love to chat to him over a few pints about his experience of the game given the glow that will be surrounding him today.
The other remarkable winner – again, well backed – was Dungarvan’s winning mare, Glendine River, who had won her bumper just 24 hours earlier and if my brief glimpse of winning connections was accurate there will be bodhran sessions in The Local in Dungarvan’s main square until next weekend. (This pub has some of the best and maddest session men in Ireland not to mention serious punters!).
These are all fantastic results for the “small” man (and woman) and who says there’s no romance in racing any longer. This is what should bring people racing but, alas, it remains largely an untold story.
More mundanely, there was support for horses - both of local provenance and further afield – some of whom appeared relatively over-priced in the early markets such as Michael Griffin’s Bye Bye O Bye (2nd under one D N Russell) , Shay Barry’s Naughty Molly – a triumph of optimism over reality as she had one previous win in 36 starts – and Pat Cronin’s Give Her Bach who lost her action and will have another day-her Tramore was form is 2411 prior to yesterday and I sincerely hope there’s no-one reading this who availed of 2/5 about the Mullins’ runner in the bumper.
I tried and failed to find something that might be worth an interest in future contests.
Oh, and Charles Byrnes had a 5/1 winner, from 7’s on-course. I suppose, occasionally, they run on merit but how’d ya know? Incidentally, if he lost would it have been support from “mugs” money?
Just 24 hours after mentioning New Ross rookie handler/trainer Don Cashman as striving for his first ever winner under Rules, up he pops with the gambled-on War Of The Pennys (9/1) to leave me cursing my luck. I’m certain there were no advertised market moves for this lad until very late in the evening although he opened on course at 10’s having been freely available all day at 16’s and bigger. I had spotted the entry but a lack of an earlier “tickle” meant I never checked his form. That revealed he was a course and distance winner with placed handicap hurdle form here in the past off a 10lbs higher mark and he was easily identifiable as one of the leading dangers. On the positive side, it shows once again many of the clues are there if you dig deep enough. The undoubted injection of confidence into the Bethlehem-like stable -can only house a few beasts - may give Bobbythegangster the necessary oomph shortly.
Paul Holden of Callan must be thinking the game is easy now that his daughter is training his stock and Sir Jack **** – backed from all sorts of fancy prices – was the owner’s second significant winner in three days. I’d love to chat to him over a few pints about his experience of the game given the glow that will be surrounding him today.
The other remarkable winner – again, well backed – was Dungarvan’s winning mare, Glendine River, who had won her bumper just 24 hours earlier and if my brief glimpse of winning connections was accurate there will be bodhran sessions in The Local in Dungarvan’s main square until next weekend. (This pub has some of the best and maddest session men in Ireland not to mention serious punters!).
These are all fantastic results for the “small” man (and woman) and who says there’s no romance in racing any longer. This is what should bring people racing but, alas, it remains largely an untold story.
More mundanely, there was support for horses - both of local provenance and further afield – some of whom appeared relatively over-priced in the early markets such as Michael Griffin’s Bye Bye O Bye (2nd under one D N Russell) , Shay Barry’s Naughty Molly – a triumph of optimism over reality as she had one previous win in 36 starts – and Pat Cronin’s Give Her Bach who lost her action and will have another day-her Tramore was form is 2411 prior to yesterday and I sincerely hope there’s no-one reading this who availed of 2/5 about the Mullins’ runner in the bumper.
I tried and failed to find something that might be worth an interest in future contests.
Oh, and Charles Byrnes had a 5/1 winner, from 7’s on-course. I suppose, occasionally, they run on merit but how’d ya know? Incidentally, if he lost would it have been support from “mugs” money?
M O C's is very much a fella to watch closely, as has been pointed out elsewhere.
Cappadocia really caught my eye in Ducky Mallons race,exposed and maybe doesn't run 2 alike but well handicapped all the same and on that run could shortly win at a decent price.
Cappadocia really caught my eye in Ducky Mallons race,exposed and maybe doesn't run 2 alike but well handicapped all the same and on that run could shortly win at a decent price.
Tramore (Saturday):
Whilst you can have the cream of the crop competing for four iconic races in Chicago overnight I can find a degree of satisfaction in analysing what is probably one of the quirkiest flat cards run in Ireland every year where Tramore runs its traditional August flat meeting with 5 races run over 12f followed by two two-milers. It was in one of these mile-and-a-half-races that David Wachman gave Stormin’ Norman (Williamson) his first-ever flat winner on Raise A Storm way back in 2003. On a slightly-related note, Tramore is also the track where I came to appreciate the speciality of two-mile chasers whose speed can be uniquely suited to this track. The purist may say “seven bottom-drawer contests” and they might be right.
Take yesterday’s opening fillies’ maiden and the back stories of the Wachman (Sing For Me) and Weld (Flagstaff) runners probably facing “last chance saloon”. Sponsored by the Coolmore consigliere, Paul Shanahan, Wayne Lordan was riding to the most specific of instructions and gave his Galileo filly every possible chance but in the end the “form” horse of Harry Rogers’ beat her. Yet again, there was plenty of support for the Longfield runner and yet again the result mirrored 2016 results for Wachman and his annus horribilis: close (second) but no cigar. The punt was not important here – Wachman practically loathes gambling by the masses – but a win for the dam and her Galileo filly would be priceless. Sing For Me’s four full brothers have all won but this is the first chance for a filly to get on the scoresheet. I presume a few more attempts will be made to get the elusive winning bracket.
Similarly, the Weld Dansili runner represented Juddmonte blueblood – tracing to US champion Chief’s Crown – but her chances of winning a maiden look remote at this point. Weld may be the man-of-the-moment for the Aga Khan and Juddmonte but he can’t make slow horses any faster.
One hour later Wachman saddled yet another Galileo contestant, this time a colt who was bought in for £400,000 at Tatts in 2014 and Galaxor managed third on his second start with modest handicap success looking to be his best hope right now. This was an all-aged 12f maiden so the standard speaks for itself.
Some time ago a certain well-respected pundit of Irish racing was writing weekend columns for the people hosting this website and it’s fair to say his selections received the same attention as Segal and Taylor: they were immediately shortened in the betting and the tips were followed religiously. Now writing occasionally for a far less-widely circulated journal his advice yesterday was that Paddy The Celeb warranted the “utmost respect” and this winner drifted from 15/2 to 12/1. Class is permanent and fashions are fickle.
On the betting front John Oxx kept up his 50% strike-rate at the track and Declan McDonagh continued his fine season. Ms. Holden struck yet again for her father whilst Pat Flynn can’t buy a break at his local track with two fancied horses beaten. Struggling to keep up but I'd like to analyse how the local trainers did over the four days with their selected targets. One thing is certain: you need to be in form or generally having a reasonable year to expect your horses to perform at this festival as otherwise they simply won't win.
Whilst you can have the cream of the crop competing for four iconic races in Chicago overnight I can find a degree of satisfaction in analysing what is probably one of the quirkiest flat cards run in Ireland every year where Tramore runs its traditional August flat meeting with 5 races run over 12f followed by two two-milers. It was in one of these mile-and-a-half-races that David Wachman gave Stormin’ Norman (Williamson) his first-ever flat winner on Raise A Storm way back in 2003. On a slightly-related note, Tramore is also the track where I came to appreciate the speciality of two-mile chasers whose speed can be uniquely suited to this track. The purist may say “seven bottom-drawer contests” and they might be right.
Take yesterday’s opening fillies’ maiden and the back stories of the Wachman (Sing For Me) and Weld (Flagstaff) runners probably facing “last chance saloon”. Sponsored by the Coolmore consigliere, Paul Shanahan, Wayne Lordan was riding to the most specific of instructions and gave his Galileo filly every possible chance but in the end the “form” horse of Harry Rogers’ beat her. Yet again, there was plenty of support for the Longfield runner and yet again the result mirrored 2016 results for Wachman and his annus horribilis: close (second) but no cigar. The punt was not important here – Wachman practically loathes gambling by the masses – but a win for the dam and her Galileo filly would be priceless. Sing For Me’s four full brothers have all won but this is the first chance for a filly to get on the scoresheet. I presume a few more attempts will be made to get the elusive winning bracket.
Similarly, the Weld Dansili runner represented Juddmonte blueblood – tracing to US champion Chief’s Crown – but her chances of winning a maiden look remote at this point. Weld may be the man-of-the-moment for the Aga Khan and Juddmonte but he can’t make slow horses any faster.
One hour later Wachman saddled yet another Galileo contestant, this time a colt who was bought in for £400,000 at Tatts in 2014 and Galaxor managed third on his second start with modest handicap success looking to be his best hope right now. This was an all-aged 12f maiden so the standard speaks for itself.
Some time ago a certain well-respected pundit of Irish racing was writing weekend columns for the people hosting this website and it’s fair to say his selections received the same attention as Segal and Taylor: they were immediately shortened in the betting and the tips were followed religiously. Now writing occasionally for a far less-widely circulated journal his advice yesterday was that Paddy The Celeb warranted the “utmost respect” and this winner drifted from 15/2 to 12/1. Class is permanent and fashions are fickle.
On the betting front John Oxx kept up his 50% strike-rate at the track and Declan McDonagh continued his fine season. Ms. Holden struck yet again for her father whilst Pat Flynn can’t buy a break at his local track with two fancied horses beaten. Struggling to keep up but I'd like to analyse how the local trainers did over the four days with their selected targets. One thing is certain: you need to be in form or generally having a reasonable year to expect your horses to perform at this festival as otherwise they simply won't win.
Roscommon (Monday)
Very much a track for the flat industry and all the bigger concerns well represented.
7f 2yo maiden:
I’m no lover of buying money but it is often noticeable how fearless punters are if they think they are latching on to a “good thing” from a top yard and this was certainly the case with Bolger’s juvenile debutante Zorion albeit his task was simplified with the defection of Ger Lyons’ Mack Attack. Anyone familiar with my reasonings will know that some market moves are very difficult to interpret so how do you explain the nibble for Bolger’s other debutante Muinineach (translated as “trusting”) other than to imagine Jim Bolger describe Kevin Manning as his “muinineach” jockey once he steers this filly home on her next outing.
The “failed pinhookers” John and Sheila Lavery definitely like Hillcrest Fire and I imagine she will win a race as a juvenile and the trainer says she is best with an ease. She was backed here and ran respectably.
10f 3+ maiden:
I thought another Lavery runner, Ultra Thef, also ran well here. Unconsidered in the market he didn’t run as a no-hoper 66/1 chance and although home-bred was bought back by Lavery after being sold as a foal so that is something of a vote of confidence. Handicapping will now be his thing.
10f 3yo handicap
A good news story for Johnny Murtagh who having lost Andrew Tinkler as his main patron last year has been sent six horses from France by Belinda Strudwick of Ballygallon Stud in Kilkenny. He has managed to win with three of the sextet already and Chilli Spice came in for some support here to supplement Hawke’s win at Dundalk on Sunday. Some trainers could take an age to familiarise themselves with a new arrival but Murtagh is just getting on with the job.
12f 12+ handicap
Jim Bolger sold Greanta (as an immediate future winner) to Tom Cleary in July 2015 just weeks before Cleary’s new purchase managed to win this handicap run in memory of his son, Sean, killed tragically from an accident at Galway in 2003. Greanta was ridden to success by another son, Rory. Greanta lined up here again in 2016 but could only manage a well-beaten 9th under Ronan Whelan (9/1 – 13/2). This time Jim Bolger trained the winner and he was ridden by none other than Rory Cleary on what appeared to be an outsider as Bolger ran a more favoured runner under Kevin Manning. So far, so convoluted.
My theory is that Greanta will have been trained to the minute for this assignment but failed to win as “just one of those things”. He is back on a winning mark (fairly precision handicapping by Cleary) and you ignore him at your peril over the coming weeks.
Very much a track for the flat industry and all the bigger concerns well represented.
7f 2yo maiden:
I’m no lover of buying money but it is often noticeable how fearless punters are if they think they are latching on to a “good thing” from a top yard and this was certainly the case with Bolger’s juvenile debutante Zorion albeit his task was simplified with the defection of Ger Lyons’ Mack Attack. Anyone familiar with my reasonings will know that some market moves are very difficult to interpret so how do you explain the nibble for Bolger’s other debutante Muinineach (translated as “trusting”) other than to imagine Jim Bolger describe Kevin Manning as his “muinineach” jockey once he steers this filly home on her next outing.
The “failed pinhookers” John and Sheila Lavery definitely like Hillcrest Fire and I imagine she will win a race as a juvenile and the trainer says she is best with an ease. She was backed here and ran respectably.
10f 3+ maiden:
I thought another Lavery runner, Ultra Thef, also ran well here. Unconsidered in the market he didn’t run as a no-hoper 66/1 chance and although home-bred was bought back by Lavery after being sold as a foal so that is something of a vote of confidence. Handicapping will now be his thing.
10f 3yo handicap
A good news story for Johnny Murtagh who having lost Andrew Tinkler as his main patron last year has been sent six horses from France by Belinda Strudwick of Ballygallon Stud in Kilkenny. He has managed to win with three of the sextet already and Chilli Spice came in for some support here to supplement Hawke’s win at Dundalk on Sunday. Some trainers could take an age to familiarise themselves with a new arrival but Murtagh is just getting on with the job.
12f 12+ handicap
Jim Bolger sold Greanta (as an immediate future winner) to Tom Cleary in July 2015 just weeks before Cleary’s new purchase managed to win this handicap run in memory of his son, Sean, killed tragically from an accident at Galway in 2003. Greanta was ridden to success by another son, Rory. Greanta lined up here again in 2016 but could only manage a well-beaten 9th under Ronan Whelan (9/1 – 13/2). This time Jim Bolger trained the winner and he was ridden by none other than Rory Cleary on what appeared to be an outsider as Bolger ran a more favoured runner under Kevin Manning. So far, so convoluted.
My theory is that Greanta will have been trained to the minute for this assignment but failed to win as “just one of those things”. He is back on a winning mark (fairly precision handicapping by Cleary) and you ignore him at your peril over the coming weeks.
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