If you did not bet Seeyouallatcoppers

Backed the horse myself at 15/8 with 365,

Try selling sunglasses at the meetings.Fancy you would get your money back of those poxy trainers

Backed the 2nd

On what basis did you think this horse was a bet at 7/4 ?

Horse goes off at 5/6 wildman wondering was it a bet at 7/4 before the race. Stick to being the only person on here who is laying horses at SP.

I backed the horse myself @ 11/4. One of the best bets I have had in recent times despite the deplorable run. SP is generally taken as the closest assessment of a horses true chance. Anyone who backed this horse at odds against was on a value bet. Didn’t work out this time but it’s all about doing it right over the long term.

This is Millionaire Morse stuff no matter what happens your on a winner.

Surprised at Tell The King thinking the SP is a reflection of a horses chance,it never was and with the current SP manipulation is even less so now.

Spot on Ozy, that is exactly hwat he said, interesting to hear what Wildman thinks is the closest reflection of a horse'ss chance would be?

Tell The King says " SP is generally taken as the closest assessment of a horses true chance "

Ozymandius gets confused because I use the word reflection and changes TTKs statement to " SP is generally taken as the closest reflection of a horse chance "

There is a subtle difference,not worth postponing your virtual luncheon for but subtle nonetheless.

SP used to be a reflection of the amount of money on a horse not his chance,that no longer applies because of this wholesale market manipulation and the decline of the on course betting market.

If a Labrador owned by Terry Ramsden was racing against say Rocketfingers Greyhound,the greyhound should be heavy odds on but the bookies would know one owner was a non gambler,the other a mad gambler.
If having priced them up conservatively Ramsden got his betting boots on have no doubt the Labrador would start odds on without deserving to.

Another more subtle example would be the price of Liverpool to beat Sevilla.

The Machine decides whos fav now...

Haha lost it, official now, yes because only owners bet according to wildman in racing or in football the team with the most fans always start as favs , fgs will you give it up you're some clown you do understand that odds are simply a % chance of something occuring. Also i am certainly no Liverpool supporter but they were correct favs for that match. I will give you that there is probably some grain of truth in outright markets for some teams (England for one) but not individual match markets as it's the asian markets that are controlled by the big syndicates, you're either crazy or dumb if you think otherwise, i am sure your friend Ramsden would be happy to bet the latter.

How do you think the SP system came about ?

How do you think gambling on racing started ?

I made it as simple as possible for you but still you don't get it.

Bookmakers are only legal in Britain since 1962.
All the big betting used to take place at the event.
It originally started between owners but as others wanted to get involved private bookmakers started to spring up.

My example of this two dog race would have had bookmakers present,they would price up the race.
Its the sheer weight of money of the gambler that would skew the market plus the fragility of that market.

I can see you're being sincere so the kindest thing i can say to you, as i really don't want to hurt your feelings, is that your example is not relevent in any way shape or form.

I will try and update it for you.

If you and Ozymandius went to Thurles dogs to back a few hounds,lets say Ozymandius has got his Germans on some of Paters money and wants to gamble.

He will find two maybe three bookmakers standing,none very strong.
They open the first race 2 each of six,Ozymandius selects trap 5 tries to get a grand on,he will only be bet a hundred or fifty,his grand will force the dogs price off the boards,that's the reality now.

I saw a horse getting backed off the boards at Leopardstown years ago,Dark .......... It was called,there was literally no offers on the horse at the death,the SP was computed on the last price laid.

There was a typo in my previous post as it should have been BSP rather than SP (though given you are generally laying overbroke on the live horses in the majority of Irish races even allowing for margin it’s a similar point).

Wildman the real money can’t get on until the LTL limits are raised by the firms. The most important clues can be gleaned in the hour before the race. This is reflected in the BSP (and more often than not the SP as the course firms following the machine). You only had to look at the late money yesterday for Weld’s filly and Anamba.

To have any chance of making money from racing you need to beat the SP (and almost certainly beat the BSP) on a regular basis. There is a reason why these measures are used by firm’s when assessing clients and applying stake factor reductions.

I used to work with a lad who is on the racing forum and has a decent sized thread on there at the moment or it was there a few days ago, anyway he told me once he had 6 bets iirc with some firm TTK and they closed his account down, the gas thing is all 6 horses were beaten but all 6 were very well backed, so as you say TTK, they assessed him as a long term loser so said adios.

Fair clarification Tell The KIng.

A maiden run n Limerick around a month ago pitted Monarch against Maneen.
The betting opened evens 6/4,Monarch shortened to 4/5 when sustained money came for Maneen,he was backed from 6/4 to evens.
This was reflected on here with Maneen shortening in to around 2.08,this caused Monarch to drift to around 2.44,this was not reflected in the betting on track as an SP firm with inside knowledge kept Monarch artificially short.

Result was an embarrassing SP of 4/5 Monarch and 1/1 Maneen with Bolgers nearly turning over the two of them.

It’s a simple enough equation Rocket: You will get restricted far quicker by backing losers in the morning that are big movers than by backing winners on show prices. This is because the strong market close to the off is deemed to be fully informed and there’s little edge for the punter. It’s impossible to make money punting race by race on the show long term no matter how much of a form student you are.

I recall the race as I backed Monarch and was watching the live show with much amusement. We are looking at this from different perspectives though as you are taking certain races in a vacuum. However, the vast majority of races don’t reflect the Limerick situation.

Its a regular occurrence at Dundalk.

A weak market and small number of bookmakers makes it relatively easy.

Wildman a quick question how would you price up Ozy's German shepherd v Terry Ramsden's labrador?

I'd ask Pa Lapsy.

Pricing up markets isint easy,I wouldn't be much use at it.
Its why I don't give out about bookmakers putting crazy restrictions on lads trying to back horses in the dead of night.

I am sure you are right but I don’t consider Dundalk to be actual racing.

intresting thread this.surely the actual percentage chance of a horse winning a race is  not connected to money  or lack of it on track,shops and machine combined?if mullins(4/11) one in the last tonight is friendless late on and the money comes for so sorry sarah in thousands whos to say she wont start fav? even though mullins looks a cert? so its all about supply and demand isnt it..like the labrador /greyhound scenario

As Big Mac says its down to MARKET FORCES.

TTK i thought the same as yourself,since they made the cutaway it is a lot fairer,in that short enough space i find some are consistent there and money speaks.
The betting can be skewed alright there and that has been compared to the UKS Wolverhampton,ie a weak course market.

I might get laughted off here but what harm, i find the betfair markets weird with racing for the last few months,i think there is a lot of "chorography",it seems almost certainly "mechanical",i would suspect betfair sportsbook of just flinging back what they get on the sportsbook but that isn't supposed to take bets though it would tie in with a risk adverse factor, whether right or wrong i'm suspicious the exchange part is being manipulated even quite late to a fairly large degree.